Robust bayesian analysis given a lower bound on the probability of a set

Suppose that just the lower bound of the probability of a measurable subset K in the parameter space Ω is a priori known, when inferences are to be made about measurable subsets A in Ω. Instead of eliciting a unique prior distribution, consider the class Г of all the distributions compatible with such bound. Under mild regularity conditions about the likelihood function, the range of the posterior probability of any A is found, as the prior distribution varies in Г. Such ranges are analysed according to the robust Bayesian viewpoint. Furthermore, some characterising properties of the extended likelihood sets are proved. The prior distributions in Г are then considered as a neighbour class of an elicited prior, comparing likelihood sets and HPD in terms of robustness.     

A note on some negative dependence notions

A random vector X = (X ₁,…,X _n ) is negatively associated if and only if for every pair of partitions X ₁ = (X _π(1),…,X _π(k)), X ₂ = (X _π(k+1),…,X _π(n)) of X , P( X ₁ ? A, X ₂ ? B) ≤ P( X ₁ ? A)P( X ₂ ? B) whenever A and B are open upper sets and π is any permutation of {1,…,n}. In this paper, we develop some of concepts of negative dependence, which are weaker than negative association but stronger than negative orthant dependence by requiring the above inequality to hold only for some upper sets A and B and applying the arguments in Shaked.     

A BIVARIATE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION AND SOME APPLICATIONS1

This study is concerned with the joint distribution of the total numbers of occurrences of binary characters A and B, given three independent samples in which both characters, A but not B, and B but not A, are observed. The distribution function is given; its conditional distributions and regression functions are found; bounds on certain joint probabilities are established; and conditions for bivariate Poisson and Gaussian limits are studied. An application yields the joint distribution of sign statistics for the pair-wise comparison of treatments with a control.     

Reliability analysis of systems with components having two dependent subcomponents

In this article, a system that consists of n independent components each having two dependent subcomponents (A_i, B_i), i = 1, …, n is considered. The system is assumed to compose of components that have two correlated subcomponents (A_i, B_i), and functions iff both systems of subcomponents A₁, A₂, …, A_n and B₁, B₂, …, B_n work under certain structural rules. The expressions for reliability and mean time to failure of such systems are obtained. A sufficient condition to compare two systems of bivariate components in terms of stochastic ordering is also presented.     

SOME RESULTS ON TRUNCATION DEPENDENCE INVARIANT CLASS OF COPULAS

ABSTRACT

In this paper, m-dimensional distribution functions with truncation invariant dependence structure are studied. Some of the properties of generalized Archimedean class of copulas under this dependence structure are presented including some results on the conditions of compatibility. It has been shown that Archimedean copula generalized as it is described by Jouini and Clemen[1] Jouini, M.N. and Clemen, R.T. 1996. Copula Models for Aggregating Expert Opinions. Operations Research, 44(3): 444–457.  [Google Scholar] which has the truncation invariant dependence structure has to have the form of independence or Cook-Johnson copula. We also consider a multi-parameter class of copulas derived from one-parameter Archimedean copulas. It has been shown that this class has a probabilistic meaning as a connecting copula of the truncated random pair with a right truncation region on the third variable. Multi-parameter copulas generated in this paper stays in the Archimedean class. We provide formulas to compute Kendall's tau and explore the dependence behavior of this multi-parameter class through examples.     

A Revised Version of McNemar's Test for Paired Binary Data

In the formula of the McNemar test, a test on 2 × 2 classification tables with pairs of data, only the two categories A and D, which represent changes, are included; the retained parts B and C, which represent concordant responses, are not considered. Generally, it would be more reasonable for the significance of the changes to depend not only on A and D, but also on B and C, or on the sample size, n. To develop the test, two formulae, based on A, D, and n, and on A, D, B, C, and n, respectively, are proposed.     

E- and R-optimality of block designs for treatment-control comparisons

Abstract

We study optimal block designs for comparing a set of test treatments with a control treatment. We provide the class of all E-optimal approximate block designs, which is characterized by simple linear constraints. Based on this characterization, we obtain a class of E-optimal exact designs for unequal block sizes. In the studied model, we provide a statistical interpretation for wide classes of E-optimal designs. Moreover, we show that all approximate A-optimal designs and a large class of A-optimal exact designs for treatment-control comparisons are also R-optimal. This reinforces the observation that A-optimal designs perform well even for rectangular confidence regions.     

Maximum Likelihood Inference for Log-linear Models Subject to Constraints of Double Monotone Dependence

To model an hypothesis of double monotone dependence between two ordinal categorical variables A and B usually a set of symmetric odds ratios defined on the joint probability function is subject to linear inequality constraints. Conversely in this paper two sets of asymmetric odds ratios defined, respectively, on the conditional distributions of A given B and on the conditional distributions of B given A are subject to linear inequality constraints. If the joint probabilities are parameterized by a saturated log-linear model, these constraints are nonlinear inequality constraints on the log-linear parameters. The problem here considered is a non-standard one both for the presence of nonlinear inequality constraints and for the fact that the number of these constraints is greater than the number of the parameters of the saturated log-linear model.This work has been supported by the COFIN 2002 project, references 2002133957_002, 2002133957_004. Preliminary findings have been presented at SIS (Società Italiana di Statistica) Annual Meeting, Bari, 2004.     

Lower semiquadratic copulas with a given diagonal section

Inspired by the notion of lower semilinear copulas, we introduce a new class of copulas. These copulas, called lower semiquadratic copulas, are constructed by quadratic interpolation on segments connecting the diagonal of the unit square to the lower and left boundary of the unit square. Moreover, we unveil the necessary and sufficient conditions on a diagonal function and two auxiliary real functions u and v to obtain a copula that has this diagonal function as diagonal section. Under some mild assumptions, we characterize the smallest and the greatest lower semiquadratic copulas with a given diagonal section.     

Influence functions related to eigenvalue problems which appear in multivariate analysis

Tanaka(1988) derived two influence functions related to an ordinary eigenvalue problem (A–λ_s I)v_s = 0 of a real symmetric matrix A and used them for sensitivity analysis in principal component analysis. One of these influence functions was used to develop sensitivity analysis in factor analysis (see e.g. Tanaka and Odaka, 1988a). The present paper derives some additional influence functions related to an ordinary eigenvalue problem and also several influence functions related to a generalized eigenvalue problem (A–θ_s A)u_s = 0, where A and B are real symmetric and real symmetric positive definite matrices, respectively. These influence functions are applicable not only to the case where the eigenvalues of interest are all simple but also to the case where there are some multiple eigenvalues among those of interest.     

Invariant dependence structure under univariate truncation

The class of all bivariate copulas that are invariant under univariate truncation is characterized. To this end, a family of bivariate copulas generated by a real-valued function is introduced. The obtained results are also used in order to show that the Clayton family of copulas (including its limiting elements) coincides with the class of copulas that are invariant under bivariate truncation and contains all exchangeable copulas which are invariant under univariate truncation.     

New Families of Copulas Based on Periodic Functions

Abstract

Although there exists a large variety of copula functions, only a few are practically manageable, and often the choice in dependence modeling falls on the Gaussian copula. Furthermore most copulas are exchangeable, thus implying symmetric dependence. We introduce a way to construct copulas based on periodic functions. We study the two-dimensional case based on one dependence parameter and then provide a way to extend the construction to the n-dimensional framework. We can thus construct families of copulas in dimension n and parameterized by n ? 1 parameters, implying possibly asymmetric relations. Such “periodic” copulas can be simulated easily.     

Archimedean copulas with applications to $${{\mathrm{}}}$$ estimation

Assuming absolute continuity of marginals, we give the distribution for sums of dependent random variables from some class of Archimedean copulas and the marginal distribution functions of all order statistics. We use conditional independence structure of random variables from this class of Archimedean copulas and Laplace transform. Additionally, we present an application of our results to \({{\mathrm{VaR}}}\) estimation for sums of data from Archimedean copulas.     

Bayesian model selection for D‐vine pair‐copula constructions

In recent years analyses of dependence structures using copulas have become more popular than the standard correlation analysis. Starting from Aas et al. ( 2009 ) regular vine pair‐copula constructions (PCCs) are considered the most flexible class of multivariate copulas. PCCs are involved objects but (conditional) independence present in data can simplify and reduce them significantly. In this paper the authors detect (conditional) independence in a particular vine PCC model based on bivariate t copulas by deriving and implementing a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. However, the methodology is general and can be extended to any regular vine PCC and to all known bivariate copula families. The proposed approach considers model selection and estimation problems for PCCs simultaneously. The effectiveness of the developed algorithm is shown in simulations and its usefulness is illustrated in two real data applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 239–258; 2011 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Extremes of nonexchangeability

Summary For identically distributed random variables X and Y with joint distribution function H, we show that the supremum of |H(x,y)-H(y,x)| is 1/3. Using copulas, we define a measure of nonexchangeability, and study maximally nonexchangeable random variables and copulas. In particular, we show that maximally nonexchangeable random variables are negatively correlated in the sense of Spearman's rho. An erratum to this article is available at .     

A goodness-of-fit test for multivariate multiparameter copulas based on multiplier central limit theorems

Recent large scale simulations indicate that a powerful goodness-of-fit test for copulas can be obtained from the process comparing the empirical copula with a parametric estimate of the copula derived under the null hypothesis. A first way to compute approximate p-values for statistics derived from this process consists of using the parametric bootstrap procedure recently thoroughly revisited by Genest and Rémillard. Because it heavily relies on random number generation and estimation, the resulting goodness-of-fit test has a very high computational cost that can be regarded as an obstacle to its application as the sample size increases. An alternative approach proposed by the authors consists of using a multiplier procedure. The study of the finite-sample performance of the multiplier version of the goodness-of-fit test for bivariate one-parameter copulas showed that it provides a valid alternative to the parametric bootstrap-based test while being orders of magnitude faster. The aim of this work is to extend the multiplier approach to multivariate multiparameter copulas and study the finite-sample performance of the resulting test. Particular emphasis is put on elliptical copulas such as the normal and the t as these are flexible models in a multivariate setting. The implementation of the procedure for the latter copulas proves challenging and requires the extension of the Plackett formula for the t distribution to arbitrary dimension. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments, which could be carried out only because of the good computational properties of the multiplier approach, confirm in the multivariate multiparameter context the satisfactory behavior of the goodness-of-fit test.     

Gluing Copulas

We present a new way of constructing n-copulas, by scaling and gluing finitely many n-copulas. Gluing for bivariate copulas produces a copula that coincides with the independence copula on some grid of horizontal and vertical sections. Examples illustrate how gluing can be applied to build complicated copulas from simple ones. Finally, we investigate the analytical as well as statistical properties of the copulas obtained by gluing, in particular, the behavior of Spearman's ρ and Kendall's τ.     

A recipe for bivariate copulas

ABSTRACT

We give conditions on a ? ?1, b ∈ ( ? ∞, ∞), and f and g so that C_{a, b}(x, y) = xy(1 + af(x)g(y))^b is a bivariate copula. Many well-known copulas are of this form, including the Ali–Mikhail–Haq Family, Huang–Kotz Family, Bairamov–Kotz Family, and Bekrizadeh–Parham–Zadkarmi Family. One result is that we produce an algorithm for producing such copulas. Another is a one-parameter family of copulas whose measures of concordance range from 0 to 1.