Consumer bankruptcy and default: The role of individual social capital

In this paper, we empirically assess the role of individual social capital on personal bankruptcy and default outcomes in the consumer credit market. After controlling for a borrower’s risk score, debt, income, wealth, and legal and economic environments, we find that default/bankruptcy risk rises and then falls over the lifecycle, while a borrower who owns a home or is married has a lower risk of default/bankruptcy. Moreover, a borrower who migrates 190 miles from his “state of birth” is 17% more likely to default and 15% more likely to file for bankruptcy, while a borrower who continues to live in his state of birth is 14% and 10% less likely to default and file for bankruptcy, respectively. A borrower who moves to a rural area is 9% and 7% less likely to default and declare bankruptcy, respectively. We also find that measures of social networks, norms, and cooperation and trust (i.e., aggregate social capital) are inversely related to consumer bankruptcy.     

Divining Value with Relational Proxies: How Moneylenders Balance Risk and Trust in the Quest for Good Borrowers1

This analysis of the U.S. credit industry explores how lenders evaluate people during the loan application process. They use a variety of risk‐assessment techniques in conjunction with trust‐building mechanisms that I call relational proxies. The relational proxies that lenders rely on are behavioral impressions, reputation information, and financial narratives that explain information on credit reports. Lenders use this subjectively evaluated trust assessment interdependently with standardized financial information to enhance their decision‐making process. Face‐to‐face evaluation of potential borrowers is mediated by institutional rules meant to reduce the need for trust. However, for the lenders in this study, a good borrower is always a trustworthy borrower.     

AN ANALYSIS OF INFORMATIONAL RESTRICTIONS ON THE LENDING DECISIONS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Lenders are assumed to use formal credit scoring schemes in order to evaluate borrower credit worthiness. Variables used in these schemes may be measured with error resulting in credit scores which include the effects of biased parameter estimates, and in lending decisions that appear to be discriminatory although lenders are not prejudiced. Regulations which restrict the information used in credit scoring schemes may produce undesirable credit supply results. Theoretical models are supplemented with illustrative empirical analysis of mortgage lending in which use of information on property location is prohibited. The empirical results indicate that the quantitative impact of such regulations is modest.     

INTEREST RATE CEILINGS AND THE ROLE OF SECURITY AND COLLECTION REMEDIES IN LOAN CONTRACTS

Collateral or other security for personal loans and restrictions on creditor remedies for the collection of debts have varying effects on the price and quantity of credit which depend in turn on the level of interest rate ceilings. We report here on reduced-form equations of a supply-demand model estimated for five states with different interest rate restrictions. Interest rate ceilings limit how far lenders can raise loan rates to compensate for expected default losses but restrictions on collection remedies are generally associated with a higher interest rate.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF BANKRUPTCY STATUTES

Personal bankruptcy statutes are analyzed as social insurance agreements. The risk-sharing and incentive effects resulting from changes in bankruptcy laws are studied. It is shown that increasing the leniency of bankruptcy statutes may have unambiguous short-term benefits to potential bankrupts, but may be detrimental in the long-run.     

Embeddedness and capital markets: Bank financing of businesses

The article examines the social and economic dimensions of capital markets, particularly the effects of bank and capital market structure; lending criteria and bank policies; and demand for credit, on bank financing of businesses. A critical problem in most capital markets is that lenders have inadequate information to assess the risk and creditworthiness of loan applicants. We find that many bankers continue to use assessments of character as a signal of the potential borrower's creditworthiness. Banking deregulation limits the range of signals available to lenders and therefore may have detrimental consequences for banks and local economies.     

THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION AND THE UNSECURED CREDIT MARKET

The information technology (IT) revolution coincided with the transformation of the U.S. unsecured credit market. Households' borrowing increased rapidly and there was an even faster increase in bankruptcy filings. A risk of default model with asymmetric information and costly screening is introduced to study this period. When information costs are high, the design of contracts under private information prevents some households from borrowing with a risk of default. As information costs drop, households borrow more and bankruptcy filings increase. Quantitative exercises suggest that the IT revolution may have played an important role in the transformation of the unsecured credit market. (JEL E43, E44, G33)     

Leisure: how to promote inpatient motivation after discharge

1. A group of psychiatric inpatients followed plans to participate in leisure activities after discharge at significantly higher levels when treated with classes and written contracts; or classes, written contracts, and musical entertainment; rather than with classes alone. 2. Inpatient classes for psychiatric patients should be coupled with other interventions, such as contracts or musical entertainment, to assist patients to attain therapeutic goals after discharge. 3. The utilization of written goal-setting contracts seems to have merit as a routine nursing intervention with psychiatric inpatients. 4. The use of a written contract left with the patient may promote or enhance a nurse/patient transaction.     

Casino gambling and bankruptcy in new United States casino jurisdictions

Using quarterly data on personal consumer bankruptcy for 1989:Q4 through 1998:Q1, this study examines the impact that the introduction of casino gambling has on per capita personal bankruptcy filings. Eight jurisdictions that have recently adopted gambling are compared with a set of matching control jurisdictions, communities without casinos that are economically and demographically similar to the eight communities. The results reveal that casino gambling is associated with an increase in personal bankruptcy in seven of the eight communities. In five of the seven the increase is statistically significant. However, an increase is not universal and in one community, Harrison County, Mississippi (Biloxi), bankruptcy per capita significantly decreased. It is speculated that this decrease is due to the features of both the community and the casino industry in Biloxi. Finally, the most significant changes in bankruptcy occur among Chapter 13, as opposed to Chapter 7, filings. This suggests that a growing portion of insolvents are creating repayment plans for their debts. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

The impact of liquidity constraints and imperfect commitment on migration decisions of offspring of rural households

This paper presents a non-cooperative model of intra-household decision-making regarding investment in migration. It is shown that the combination of liquidity constraints and imperfect commitment are a source of underinvestment in migration. More precisely, we highlight that, if remittances are unenforceable as a repayment for the parent’s contribution in migration transaction costs, then both the migrant and the parent’s liquidity constraints, rather than the household’s liquidity constraint as a whole, matter in determining the investment decision. Besides, the insurance motive for remittances is shown to generate divergence of interest over the characteristics of migration. This result calls for a theoretical approach that properly takes account of potential internalization problems, which the paper intends to offer. Plausibility checks of the model are provided by comparative statics whose outcomes are consistent with previous research on migration and remittances.     

Cross-border credit networks,banking risk contagion and suppression effects

From the perspective of risk contagion, it is difficult to balance the benefits and costs of banking globalization. We use data on cross-border syndicated loans intended to build heterogeneous credit networks among banking sectors in various countries to explore the introduction of banking risks into the network. Via social network analysis (SNA), we find that the global credit network has phased characteristics, and it is a source of exposure to global banking risks. However, the more important network position, that is, the greater centrality, identified shows that the banking industry is more stable. To explain these findings, we present and estimate the banking risk contagion model and the suppression effect model of contagion. Evidence suggests that the international credit network is the channel of risk contagion, and the long-term loan network and nonfinancial borrower network have a stronger contagion effect. Exogenous banking supervision and network endogenous closeness centrality can inhibit risk contagion. From a policy perspective, these findings indicate the need to supervise high-risk cross-border loans and maintain independence in the international credit network.Data Availability StatementThe data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [Heng Zhao, email: zhao0501@mail.dlut.edu.cn], upon reasonable request.     

Boundedly rational banks’ contribution to the credit cycle

We investigate how banks’ boundedly rational learning influences their views about default risks over the business cycle. Our analysis details the direction and the magnitude of these effects assuming that banks update probability in a Bayesian way. With a limited experience span lenders are liable to overestimate (underestimate) losses from defaulting loans early (late) in the boom. Depending on their experience span, banks turn over-optimistic and underprice default risk 3–5 years into the boom. During recessions an overpricing of risk begins just quarters into the recession. Our simulations are calibrated with U.S. data and provide evidence for the view that banks contribute to excessive lending during the upswing and to credit crunches in recessions.     

Medical insurance, technological change, and welfare

Concerns have been expressed about the welfare effects of expensive innovations in medical care financed largely through medical insurance. This paper develops a model which considers such issues. It is shown that even if insurance is purchased optimally (subject to a plausible constraint on the form of the contract), innovations may be adopted that have the effect of reducing expected welfare. The question of how the benefits of medical innovations ought to be measured in the presence of insurance is also explored.     

Effects of Family Life-Cycle Stages on Consumer Debts

Using the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), this study examined factors related to two types of consumer debt: installment debt and credit card debt. To address the limitations of the conventional life-cycle hypothesis, the study incorporated ability, willingness, and need to borrow, and prudence as well as life-cycle stages in the conceptual framework. The results of the double-hurdle model showed that life-cycle stages, willingness and ability to borrow, prudence, and the need to borrow were significant factors affecting installment debt and credit card debt. Based on the results, implications for financial counselors and educators, lenders, consumers, and policy makers are discussed.     

TRANSACTION RISK AND BIDDING BEHAVIOR

This paper analyzes a model of consumer behavior where transaction risk in the form of a divergence between bid and executed demand is incorporated into the consumer's decision process. A neutral assumption concerning risk preferences, combined with income and expenditure constraints, is shown to be sufficient to generate behavior commonly associated with risk aversion. Such responses to transaction risk are referred to as objective reactions as opposed to subjective attitudes toward risk. The income effect is shown to play an important role in determining behavioral reactions to this type of risk.     

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT APPROACHES TO SERVICE DELIVERY: AN ANALYSIS FROM A TRANSACTIONS COST PERSPECTIVE

Municipal governments are less likely to contract out for service delivery if citizen preferences for the service are heterogeneous. This conclusion is based on an analysis that extends to the public sector the empirical industrial organization literature on transaction costs and the "make or buy" decision faced by private firms. Service delivery practices for sixty-three municipal services are examined. The findings are consistent with the proposition that the cost for writing and monitoring contracts may be an important consideration in municipal service delivery approach and that bureaucratic supply may not be as inefficient as some previous studies indicate.     

The relationship between bankers and farmers: An analysis of Britain and Ireland

The financial sector is playing a more central role in agriculture. This article analyzes the external provision of finance for farmers in Britain and the Irish Republic, drawing principally on interviews with bankers and specialist providers of agricultural finance. The development of farm credit institutions in the two countries and their subsequent commercialization is discussed. Agriculture is commercially attractive to lenders as part of a balanced portfolio because of its stable, low risk character. Credit selectivity is confirmed as a feature of lender behaviour, although its consequences are likely to be more far reaching in Ireland. Lenders' perceptions of the financial sophistication of farmers is assessed, the more financially sophisticated farmer being more receptive to the logic of the financial sector and hence a more attractive customer. An emphasis on tax avoidance can lead farmers into irrational borrowing decisions. Larger farmers are better placed to take advantage of lending opportunities and new financial instruments.     

The importance of employer sponsorship in the long-term care insurance market

Medicare and Medicaid are major sources of long-term care payments and thus will bear much of the burden from the growth in long-term care service use. The large future demand for long-term care services is of great concern among policymakers due to its expense and the use of public program dollars. It is argued that the individual purchase of long-term care insurance can help alleviate the increasing financial pressure on public programs responsible for the majority of longterm care financing. However, consumers have shown little interest in insuring against the high costs of long-term care. This analysis examines the effect of several factors on the decision to purchase a long-term care insurance policy: knowledge and attitudes of long-term care insurance and the long-term care financing system, the perceived risk for longterm care, financial planning behavior, and the availability of long-term care insurance. The interim results indicate the factor most likely to affect the decision to purchase long-term care insurance is access to employer-sponsored long-term care insurance. This suggests tht the availability of affordable and high quality coverage is more important than demand-side factors such as awareness of long-term care insurance and a perceived greater risk for long-term care.     

Beyond "banking for the poor": credit mechanisms and women's empowerment

This article describes some strengths and limitations of credit programs for women in developing countries. It is urged that development planners recognize the importance of the selection of the type of credit mechanism in the long term. Ethical issues should be decided upon before the credit mechanism is operable. Organizations should make clear what level of commitment there is to empower borrowers. Most organizations give loans to women and assume empowerment will take place without devising strategies to ensure empowerment. Credit mechanisms include credit for the poor and credit by the poor. A sound financial portfolio and 100% repayment are not the appropriate criteria for securing the empowerment of women. Empowerment of women is related to "building the capacity of borrowers to manage and control decision making." UNICEF's framework of gender equality and women's empowerment identifies levels of empowerment as "welfare, access, conscientisation, participation, and control." Development planners should be aware that provision of credit also has the potential to increase a poor family's debt. Delinquency may be hidden by overlapping loans that trap borrowers. Fewer installment payments increase the chances of a debt trap. Reducing the number of installments may reduce administrative costs and conform to production processes, but may also lead to a debt trap. There is now considerable emphasis on investing in low-income women entrepreneurs as a highly efficient means of achieving social and economic objectives. Credit programs aim to support the growth of small, self-sustaining businesses, to improve women's opportunities, and to provide alternatives to exploitation by local money-lenders. This article describes the following credit mechanisms: bank guarantee systems, government credit schemes, intermediary projects, direct lending projects, banks for the poor, credit unions, and village-based banks.