Asymptotic inference for mixture models by using data-dependent priors

For certain mixture models, improper priors are undesirable because they yield improper posteriors. However, proper priors may be undesirable because they require subjective input. We propose the use of specially chosen data-dependent priors. We show that, in some cases, data-dependent priors are the only priors that produce intervals with second-order correct frequentist coverage. The resulting posterior also has another interpretation: it is the product of a fixed prior and a pseudolikelihood.     

Nonparametric bayesian inference for dichotomous response models

A Bayesian least squares approach is taken here to estimate certain parameters in generalized linear models for dichotomous response data. The method requires that only first and second moments of the probability distribution representing prior information be specified* Examples are presented to illustrate situations having direct estimates as well as those which require approximate or iterative solutions.     

Stochastic variational inference for large-scale discrete choice models using adaptive batch sizes

Discrete choice models describe the choices made by decision makers among alternatives and play an important role in transportation planning, marketing research and other applications. The mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model is a popular discrete choice model that captures heterogeneity in the preferences of decision makers through random coefficients. While Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide the Bayesian analogue to classical procedures for estimating MMNL models, computations can be prohibitively expensive for large datasets. Approximate inference can be obtained using variational methods at a lower computational cost with competitive accuracy. In this paper, we develop variational methods for estimating MMNL models that allow random coefficients to be correlated in the posterior and can be extended easily to large-scale datasets. We explore three alternatives: (1) Laplace variational inference, (2) nonconjugate variational message passing and (3) stochastic linear regression. Their performances are compared using real and simulated data. To accelerate convergence for large datasets, we develop stochastic variational inference for MMNL models using each of the above alternatives. Stochastic variational inference allows data to be processed in minibatches by optimizing global variational parameters using stochastic gradient approximation. A novel strategy for increasing minibatch sizes adaptively within stochastic variational inference is proposed.     

Asymptotic likelihood inference for nonhomogeneous observations

This paper surveys asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood estimation for not identically distributed, possibly dependent observations. Main results on consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency are stated within a unified framework. Limiting distributions of the likelihood ratio, Wald and score statistics for composite hypotheses are obtained under the same conditions by a generalization of existing theory. Modifications for maximum likelihood estimation under misspecification, containing the results for correctly specified models, are presented, and extensions to likelihood inference in the presence of nuisance parameters are indicated.     

Asymptotic inference for coefficients of variation

Asymptotic inference results for the coefficients of variation of normal populations are presented in this article. This includes formulas for test statistics, power, confidence intervals, and simultaneous inference. The results are based on the asymptotic normality of the sample coefficient of variation as derived by Miller (1991). An example which compares the homogeneity of bone test samples produced from two different methods is presented.     

Statistical inference for discrete middle-censored data

In this paper we consider the discrete middle censoring where lifetime, lower bound and length of censoring interval are variables with geometric distribution. We obtain the likelihood function of observed data and derive the MLE of the unknown parameter using EM algorithm. Also we obtain the Bayes estimator of the unknown parameter under squared error loss (SEL) function and credible interval of unknown parameter using Monte Carlo methods.     

Asymptotic normality for limiting discrete distributions

Three basic asymptotic normality conditions for limiting discrete distributions are given in terms of differencing operators. Under these conditions one can establish asymptotic normality by directly dealing with the limiting behaviors of distribution functions themselves without resorting to the central limit theorem.     

Approximate Bayesian inference in semi-mechanistic models

Inference of interaction networks represented by systems of differential equations is a challenging problem in many scientific disciplines. In the present article, we follow a semi-mechanistic modelling approach based on gradient matching. We investigate the extent to which key factors, including the kinetic model, statistical formulation and numerical methods, impact upon performance at network reconstruction. We emphasize general lessons for computational statisticians when faced with the challenge of model selection, and we assess the accuracy of various alternative paradigms, including recent widely applicable information criteria and different numerical procedures for approximating Bayes factors. We conduct the comparative evaluation with a novel inferential pipeline that systematically disambiguates confounding factors via an ANOVA scheme.     

GMM inference in spatial autoregressive models

In this study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the optimal generalized method of moments estimator (OGMME) for a spatial econometric model with a first-order spatial autoregressive process in the dependent variable and the disturbance term (for short SARAR(1, 1)). We show that the estimated asymptotic standard errors for spatial autoregressive parameters can be substantially smaller than their empirical counterparts. Hence, we extend the finite sample variance correction methodology of Windmeijer (2005 Windmeijer, F. (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators. Journal of Econometrics 126(1):25–51.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the OGMME for the SARAR(1, 1) model. Results from simulation studies indicate that the correction method improves the variance estimates in small samples and leads to more accurate inference for the spatial autoregressive parameters. For the same model, we compare the finite sample properties of various test statistics for linear restrictions on autoregressive parameters. These tests include the standard asymptotic Wald test based on various GMMEs, a bootstrapped version of the Wald test, two versions of the C(α) test, the standard Lagrange multiplier (LM) test, the minimum chi-square test (MC), and two versions of the generalized method of moments (GMM) criterion test. Finally, we study the finite sample properties of effects estimators that show how changes in explanatory variables impact the dependent variable.     

Statistical inference for queueing models

The paper briefly describes methods and results in the statistical analysis of queueing systems     

Bayesian inference for Heston-STAR models

The Heston-STAR model is a new class of stochastic volatility models defined by generalizing the Heston model to allow the volatility of the volatility process as well as the correlation between asset log-returns and variance shocks to change across different regimes via smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) functions. The form of the STAR functions is very flexible, much more so than the functions introduced in Jones (J Econom 116:181–224, 2003), and provides the framework for a wide range of stochastic volatility models. A Bayesian inference approach using data augmentation techniques is used for the parameters of our model. We also explore goodness of fit of our Heston-STAR model. Our analysis of the S&P 500 and VIX index demonstrates that the Heston-STAR model is more capable of dealing with large market fluctuations (such as in 2008) compared to the standard Heston model.     

Asymptotic inference in poverty indices: an empirical processes approach

We derive an empirical poverty index containing most of those proposed in the literature. Then, we study its asymptotic behavior by using empirical processes theory. From the results obtained, we derive a Wald-type test for comparing a vector of theoretical poverty indices to a vector of reference indices. We study the test statistic under the null hypothesis of equality, fixed alternatives, and a sequence of local alternatives. A simulation experiment conducted shows that our test performs well for exponential and Pareto data.     

Bayesian inference with misspecified models

This article reviews Bayesian inference from the perspective that the designated model is misspecified. This misspecification has implications in interpretation of objects, such as the prior distribution, which has been the cause of recent questioning of the appropriateness of Bayesian inference in this scenario. The main focus of this article is to establish the suitability of applying the Bayes update to a misspecified model, and relies on representation theorems for sequences of symmetric distributions; the identification of parameter values of interest; and the construction of sequences of distributions which act as the guesses as to where the next observation is coming from. A conclusion is that a clear identification of the fundamental starting point for the Bayesian is described.     

Statistical inference in partially time-varying coefficient models

A partially time-varying coefficient time series model is introduced to characterize the nonlinearity and trending phenomenon. To estimate the regression parameter and the nonlinear coefficient function, the profile least squares approach is applied with the help of local linear approximation. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed estimators are established under mild conditions. Meanwhile, the generalized likelihood ratio test is studied and the test statistics are demonstrated to follow asymptotic χ²-distribution under the null hypothesis. Furthermore, some extensions of the proposed model are discussed and several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the finite sample behavior of the proposed methods.     

Statistical inference in dynamic panel data models

Anderson and his collaborators have made seminal contributions to inference with instrumental variables and to dynamic panel data models. We review these contributions and the extensive economic and statistical literature that these contributions spawned. We describe our recent work in these two areas, presenting new approaches to (a) making valid inferences in the presence of weak instruments and (b) instrument and model selection for dynamic panel data models. Both approaches use empirical likelihood and resampling. For inference in the presence of weak instruments, our approach uses model averaging to achieve asymptotic efficiency with strong instruments but maintain valid inferences with weak instruments. For instrument and model selection, our approach aims at choosing valid instruments that are strong enough to be useful.     

Two sample inference in functional linear models

We propose a method of comparing two functional linear models in which explanatory variables are functions (curves) and responses can be either scalars or functions. In such models, the role of parameter vectors (or matrices) is played by integral operators acting on a function space. We test the null hypothesis that these operators are the same in two independent samples. The complexity of the test statistics increases as we move from scalar to functional responses and relax assumptions on the covariance structure of the regressors. They all, however, have an asymptotic chi‐squared distribution with the number of degrees of freedom which depends on a specific setting. The test statistics are readily computable using the R package fda , and have good finite sample properties. The test is applied to egg‐laying curves of Mediterranean flies and to data from terrestrial magnetic observatories. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Small-sample likelihood inference in extreme-value regression models

We deal with a general class of extreme-value regression models introduced by Barreto-Souza and Vasconcellos [Bias and skewness in a general extreme-value regression model, Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 1379–1393]. Our goal is to derive an adjusted likelihood ratio statistic that is approximately distributed as χ² with a high degree of accuracy. Although the adjusted statistic requires more computational effort than its unadjusted counterpart, it is shown that the adjustment term has a simple compact form that can be easily implemented in standard statistical software. Further, we compare the finite-sample performance of the three classical tests (likelihood ratio, Wald, and score), the gradient test that has been recently proposed by Terrell [The gradient statistic, Comput. Sci. Stat. 34 (2002), pp. 206–215], and the adjusted likelihood ratio test obtained in this article. Our simulations favour the latter. Applications of our results are presented.