Minimax sequential tests of composite hypotheses on the drift of a Wiener process

A Wiener process with unknown drift parameter μ is, beginning at O, observed continuously and one has to decide between the hypotheses μ≤0 and μ>0. For loss functions of the form sμ^r and linear cost functions one wants to determine a minimax sequential test. Generalizing the results of DeGroot (1960) a minimax test in the class of all symmetrical SPRT’s is given in an explicit form. On the other hand it is shown that this SPRT is, in general, no longer minimax in the class of all sequential tests.     

Bootstrap for generalized linear models

We consider the distribution of the (standardized) ML-estimator of the unknown parameter vector in a Generalized Linear Model with canonical link function. It will be shown that its (parametric) Bootstrap estimator is consistent under the same assumptions needed by Fahrmeir & Kaufmann (1985, 1986) to show its asymptotic normality.     

An ANOVA-type test for multiple change points

We consider the problem of testing the null hypothesis of no change against the alternative of multiple change points in a series of independent observations. We propose an ANOVA-type test statistic and obtain its asymptotic null distribution. We also give approximations of its limiting critical values. We report the results of Monte Carlo studies conducted to compare the power of the proposed test against a number of its competitors. As illustrations we analyzed three real data sets.     

The asymptotic unbiasedness of S2 in the linear regression model with AR(1)-disturbances

The OLS-estimator of the disturbance variance in the Linear Regression Model is shown to be asymptotically unbiased in the context of AR(1)-disturbances, although for any given design, E(s²/σ²) tends to zero as correlation increases.     

An extension of the generalized half-normal distribution

In this paper we propose an extension of the generalized half-normal distribution studied in Cooray and Ananda (Commun Stat 37:1323–1337, 2008). This new distribution is defined by considering the quotient of two random variables, the one in the numerator being a generalized half normal distribution and the one in the denominator being a power of the uniform distribution on \((0,1)\) , respectively. The resulting distribution has greater kurtosis than the generalized half normal distribution. The density function of this more general distribution is derived jointly with some of its properties and moments. We discuss stochastic representation, maximum likelihood and moments estimation. Applications to real data sets are reported revealing that the proposed distribution can fit real data better than the slashed half-normal, generalized half-normal and Birnbaum–Saunders distributions.     

EWMA charts: ARL considerations in case of changes in location and scale

Widely spread tools within the area of Statistical Process Control are control charts of various designs. Control chart applications are used to keep process parameters (e.g., mean \(\mu \) , standard deviation \(\sigma \) or percent defective \(p\) ) under surveillance so that a certain level of process quality can be assured. Well-established schemes such as exponentially weighted moving average charts (EWMA), cumulative sum charts or the classical Shewhart charts are frequently treated in theory and practice. Since Shewhart introduced a \(p\) chart (for attribute data), the question of controlling the percent defective was rarely a subject of an analysis, while several extensions were made using more advanced schemes (e.g., EWMA) to monitor effects on parameter deteriorations. Here, performance comparisons between a newly designed EWMA \(p\) control chart for application to continuous types of data, \(p=f(\mu ,\sigma )\) , and popular EWMA designs ( \(\bar{X}\) , \(\bar{X}\) - \(S^2\) ) are presented. Thus, isolines of the average run length are introduced for each scheme taking both changes in mean and standard deviation into account. Adequate extensions of the classical EWMA designs are used to make these specific comparisons feasible. The results presented are computed by using numerical methods.     

Selection of Working Correlation Structure and Best Model in GEE Analyses of Longitudinal Data

The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) method is one of the most commonly used statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data in epidemiological studies. A working correlation structure for the repeated measures of the outcome variable of a subject needs to be specified by this method. However, statistical criteria for selecting the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables in GEE are only available recently because the GEE method is developed on the basis of quasi-likelihood theory. Maximum likelihood based model selection methods, such as the widely used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), are not applicable to GEE directly. Pan (2001 Pan , W. ( 2001 ). Akaike's information criterion in generalized estimating equations . Biometrics 57 : 120 – 125 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a selection method called QIC which can be used to select the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables. Based on the QIC method, we developed a computing program to calculate the QIC value for a range of different distributions, link functions and correlation structures. This program was written in Stata software. In this article, we introduce this program and demonstrate how to use it to select the most parsimonious model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data through several representative examples.     

A Class of Improved Estimators for the Scale Parameter of a Mixture Model of Exponential Distribution with Unknown Location

Under Stein's loss, a class of improved estimators for the scale parameter of a mixture of exponential distribution with unknown location is constructed. The method is analogous to Maruyama's (1998 Maruyama , Y. ( 1998 ). Minimax estimators of a normal variance . Metrika 48 : 209 – 214 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) construction for the variance of a normal distribution and also an extension of the result produced in Petropoulos and Kourouklis (2002 Petropoulos , C. , Kourouklis , S. ( 2002 ). A class of improved estimators for the scale parameter of an exponential distribution with unknown location . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 31 : 325 – 335 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Also, robustness properties are considered.     

Modifications of the Empirical Likelihood Interval Estimation with Improved Coverage Probabilities

The empirical likelihood (EL) technique has been well addressed in both the theoretical and applied literature in the context of powerful nonparametric statistical methods for testing and interval estimations. A nonparametric version of Wilks theorem (Wilks, 1938 Wilks , S. S. ( 1938 ). The large-sample distribution of the likelihood ratio for testing composite hypotheses . Annals of Mathematical Statistics 9 : 60 – 62 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) can usually provide an asymptotic evaluation of the Type I error of EL ratio-type tests. In this article, we examine the performance of this asymptotic result when the EL is based on finite samples that are from various distributions. In the context of the Type I error control, we show that the classical EL procedure and the Student's t-test have asymptotically a similar structure. Thus, we conclude that modifications of t-type tests can be adopted to improve the EL ratio test. We propose the application of the Chen (1995 Chen , L. ( 1995 ). Testing the mean of skewed distributions . Journal of the American Statistical Association 90 : 767 – 772 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) t-test modification to the EL ratio test. We display that the Chen approach leads to a location change of observed data whereas the classical Bartlett method is known to be a scale correction of the data distribution. Finally, we modify the EL ratio test via both the Chen and Bartlett corrections. We support our argument with theoretical proofs as well as a Monte Carlo study. A real data example studies the proposed approach in practice.     

Testing Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study

Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and nonseasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modeling. In this article, the widely used Robinson's (1994 Robinson , P. M. ( 1994 ). Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses . J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89 ( 428 ): 1420 – 1437 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) test is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes.     

The Modified Pulak and Al-Sultan's Model for Determining the Optimum Process Parameters

Economic selection of process parameters has been an important topic in modern statistical process control. The optimum process parameters setting have a major effect on the expected profit/cost per item. There are some concerns on the problem of setting process parameters. Boucher and Jafari (1991 Boucher , T. O. , Jafari , M. A. ( 1991 ). The optimum target value for single filling operations with quality sampling plans . J. Qual. Technol. 23 : 44 – 47 . [CSA] [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) first considered the attribute single sampling plan applied in the selection of process target. Pulak and Al-Sultan (1996 Pulak , M. F. S. , Al-Sultan , K. S. ( 1996 ). The optimum targeting for a single filling operation with rectifying inspection . Omega 24 : 727 – 733 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) extended Boucher and Jafari's model and presented the rectifying inspection plan for determining the optimum process mean. In this article, we further propose a modified Pulak and Al-Sultan model for determining the optimum process mean and standard deviation under the rectifying inspection plan with the average outgoing quality limit (AOQL) protection. Taguchi's (1986 Taguchi , G. ( 1986 ). Introduction to Quality Engineering . Asian Productivity Organization . [Google Scholar]) symmetric quadratic quality loss function is adopted for evaluating the product quality. By solving the modified model, we can obtain the optimum process parameters with the maximum expected profit per item and the specified quality level can be reached.     

Extensions of Stein's Lemma for the Skew-Normal Distribution

When two random variables have a bivariate normal distribution, Stein's lemma (Stein, 1973 Stein , C. M. ( 1973 ). Estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution . Proc. Prague Symp. Asymptotic Statist. 345 – 381 . [Google Scholar] 1981 Stein , C. M. ( 1981 ). Estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution . Ann. Statist. 9 : 1135 – 1151 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), provides, under certain regularity conditions, an expression for the covariance of the first variable with a function of the second. An extension of the lemma due to Liu (1994 Liu , J. S. ( 1994 ). Siegel's formula via Stein's identities . Statist. Probab. Lett. 21 : 247 – 251 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) as well as to Stein himself establishes an analogous result for a vector of variables which has a multivariate normal distribution. The extension leads in turn to a generalization of Siegel's (1993 Siegel , A. F. ( 1993 ). A surprising covariance involving the minimum of multivariate normal variables . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 88 : 77 – 80 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) formula for the covariance of an arbitrary element of a multivariate normal vector with its minimum element. This article describes extensions to Stein's lemma for the case when the vector of random variables has a multivariate skew-normal distribution. The corollaries to the main result include an extension to Siegel's formula. This article was motivated originally by the issue of portfolio selection in finance. Under multivariate normality, the implication of Stein's lemma is that all rational investors will select a portfolio which lies on Markowitz's mean-variance efficient frontier. A consequence of the extension to Stein's lemma is that under multivariate skew-normality, rational investors will select a portfolio which lies on a single mean-variance-skewness efficient hyper-surface.     

Permutation Inference for a Class of Mixture Models

In statistical surveys, people are often asked to express evaluations on several topics or to make an ordered arrangement in a list of objects (items, services, sentences, etc.); thus, the analysis of ratings and rankings is receiving a growing interest in many fields. In this framework, we develop a testing procedure for a class of mixture models with covariates (defined as CUB models), proposed by Piccolo (2003 Piccolo , D. ( 2003 ). On the moments of a mixture of uniform and shifted binomial random variables . Quaderni di Statistica 5 : 85 – 104 . [Google Scholar]) and D'Elia and Piccolo (2005 D'Elia , A. , Piccolo , D. ( 2005 ). A mixture model for preference data analysis . Computat. Statist. Data Anal. 49 : 917 – 934 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and generally developed in a parametric context. Instead, we propose a nonparametric solution to perform inference on CUB models, specifically on the coefficients of the covariates. A simulation study proves that this approach is more appropriate in some specific data settings, mostly for small sample sizes.     

Some Remarks about Robust Estimation of the Scale Parameter in Weighted Models

Using Zieliński's (1977 Zieliński , R. ( 1977 ). Robustness: a quantitative approach . Bull. Acad. Polon. Sci., Ser. Sci. Math. Astronom. Phys. 25 : 1281 – 1286 . [Google Scholar]) concept of robustness, B?a?ej (2007 B?a?ej , P. ( 2007 ). Robust estimation of the scale and weighted distributions . Appl. Math. (Warsaw) 34 : 39 – 45 . [Google Scholar]) obtained the uniformly most bias-robust estimates (UMBREs) of the scale parameter for some statistical models, in a class of linear functions of order statistics. Violations of the models are generated by weight functions. In this article the UMBRE of the scale parameter, based on order statistics, a more general weighted model is derived. Extension of a result of B?a?ej (2007 B?a?ej , P. ( 2007 ). Robust estimation of the scale and weighted distributions . Appl. Math. (Warsaw) 34 : 39 – 45 . [Google Scholar]) is given.     

A Regression Model for the AUC of Clustered Ordinal Test Results and Working Independent Optimal Weights

We study a regression model on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for clustered (or repeatedly measured) test results. To account for cluster information, we consider a weighted estimating equation for Dodd and Pepe (2003 Dodd , L. , Pepe , M. ( 2003 ). Semiparametric regression for the area under the receiver operating charateristic curve . Journal of the American Statistical Association 98 : 409 – 417 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])'s regression model with working independence weights. We find the optimal weight in the given class of working independence weights to minimize the variance (or MSE) of regression estimators. We apply the proposed procedure to analyzing our recent experiment on diagnosing a liver disorder. In this experiment, we investigated MRI images of patients having symptoms of potential liver disorder to compare the performance of different MRI picturing methods in testing for liver disorders.     

Comparing Robust Measures of Association Estimated Via a Smoother

A classic problem is comparing Pearson's correlation corresponding to two independent groups. The article examines a generalization where the goal is to compare the groups based on a robust variation of explanatory power used in conjunction with a particular nonparametric regression method that allows curvature. If the nonparametric regression estimator is replaced by the ordinary least squares estimator, and if explanatory power is measured with the usual variance, and if the regression line is straight, the approach used here reduces to comparing Pearson's correlation. For reasons summarized in the article, Cleveland's (1979 Cleveland , W. S. ( 1979 ). Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots . Journal of the American Statistical Association 74 : 829 – 836 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) lowess estimator is used. It is found that a modified percentile bootstrap method controls Type I error probabilities reasonably well in simulations. Even when the regression line is straight, the power of the method compares well to a variation that fits a (straight) robust regression line to the data. And even under normality, using Pearson's correlation was found to provide little or no advantage in terms of power.     

ß-expectation tolerance region for the heteroscedastic multiple regression model with multivariate Student-t error

A ß-expectation tolerance region has been constructed for the multivariate regression model with heteroscedastic errors which follow a multivariate Student-t distribution with an unknown number of degrees of freedom. The ß-expectaion tolerance region obtained in this paper is optimal in the sense of having minimum enclosure among all such tolerance regions that guarantees that it would cover any preassigned proportions, namely, ß×100 percent of the future responses from the model.     

Linear Combinations,Products and Ratios of Simplicial or Spherical Variates

The density level sets of the two types of measures under consideration are l _{2, p} -circles with p = 1 and p = 2, respectively. The intersection-percentage function (ipf) of such a measure reflects the percentages which the level set corresponding to the p-radius r shares for each r > 0 with a set to be measured. The geometric measure representation formulae in Richter (2009 Richter , W.-D. (2009). Continuous l _{n, p} -symmetric distributions. Lithuanian Mathemat. J. 49:93–108.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is based upon these ipf's and will be used here for evaluating exact cdf's and pdf's for the linear combination, the product, and the ratio of the components of two-dimensional simplicial or spherically distributed random vectors.     

Bayesian Capture-Recapture Analysis: An Application in Modeling Semelparity of a Neotropical Didelphid Marsupial

We develop a series of Bayesian statistical models for estimating survival of a neotropic didelphid marsupial, the Brazilian gracile mouse opossum (Gracilinanus microtarsus). These models are based on the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model (Cormack, 1964 Cormack , R. M. ( 1964 ). Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals . Biometrika 51 : 429 – 438 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Jolly 1965 Jolly , G. M. ( 1965 ). Explicit estimates from capture-recapture data with both death and immigration stochastic model . Biometrika 52 : 225 – 247 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Seber 1965 Seber , G. A. F. ( 1965 ). A note on the multiple recapture census . Biometrika 52 : 249 – 259 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with both survival and recapture rates expressed as a function of covariates using a logit link. The proposed models allow taking into account heterogeneity in capture probability caused by the existence of different groups of individuals in the population. The models were applied to two cohorts (Cohort, 2000, 2001) with the first one including 14 and the second one 15 sampling occasions. The best models for each of the cohorts indicate that G. microtarsus is best described as partially semelparous, a condition in which mortality after the first mating is high but graded over time, with a fraction of males surviving for a second breeding season (Boonstra, 2005 Boonstra , R. ( 2005 ). Equipped for life: the adaptive role of the stress axis in male mammals . Journal of Mammalogy 86 : 236 – 247 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).