“5．12”汶川大地震受灾人口特征与生存环境变化分析

“5．12”汶川大地震造成10万余平方公里的破坏性区域,造成69227人遇难、17923人失踪和374643人受伤,受灾人口（重灾区）2792万人。8．0级地震所释放的能量,在一定程度上改变了受灾人口所依存的自然环境和人文生态环境。本文以四川地震重灾区为研究单元,在系统分析受灾人口所依存的自然生态环境、居住（建筑空间）环境、人文生态环境、基础设施以及产业发展环境及其发展变化的基础上,析出重灾区内人口生存空间进一步缩小和调整人口分布的结论。在此基础上。提出重灾区在恢复重建中的人口分布调整建议。     

中国人口再分布新形势及其社会经济效应研究——基于“六普”数据的分析

2000年以来,中国区域经济与人口分布状况发生了巨大的变化,区域经济迅速增长,产业结构急剧变动,人口空间格局出现了深刻的调整。总体上,区域人口增长势头有所放缓,空间格局向"多中心聚集"方向发展。在省际迁移中,广东一枝独秀的局面开始改变,人口迁移重心已由珠三角转移到长三角及其他地区,但东部地区仍然是最重要的人口承载区,同时人口在中、西部部分区域的回归正在加速。在此期间,人口迁移原因越来越多元化,社会因素逐渐增强,迁移流向更为复杂。因此,必须高瞻远瞩、统筹兼顾地对人口再分布进行合理的引导,使其更有利于区域经济和社会的发展。     

中国人口再分布的社会经济合理性及其“多中心集聚”分析

文章通过人口、经济不均衡性及重心变动分析,充分揭示了当前我国人口分布的空间格局及其变化状况。结果表明,中国人口区域偏集依然严重,且还有加剧的趋势,同时“人口一经济”间的契合度也不高,甚至还出现人口重心移动与投资重心移动相背离的情况,这对近期人口空间格局的发展非常不利。为此,研究认为,在当前的中国人口、经济形势下,构建以“多中心集聚”为导向、“人的城镇化”为内涵的新型城镇化体系,是未来进行人口合理再分布的必由之举。     

高原山区人口分布特征及其主要影响因素——基于毕节地区的Panel Data计量模型分析

本文基于1987～2007年毕节地区八个县市经济、社会和资源环境方面的面板数据,考察了资源环境、经济水平和社会发展等因素对毕节人口分布变动的影响。研究发现,毕节各县市的人口总量和人口密度稳步增加,呈现协同式的增长态势,但各县市之间增长速度快慢不一,显示了区域间的差异;自然环境因素对人口地域分布变动的影响日趋减弱,但是减小的幅度并不大,说明了自然环境因素对人口分布变动的影响是根深蒂固的;经济水平和社会发展因素对人口密度变动的影响越来越大,其中尤以人均GDP和医疗条件变量更为显著;就人口密度的动态变化影响而言,除了受资源环境、社会经济发展因素的共同影响之外,毕节各个县市还表现出其个体显著差异的特征。     

珠江—西江经济带人口分布时空演化规律及影响因素分析

基于人口分布指数和空间自相关分析方法,研究2008-2017年珠江—西江经济带包括广东及广西共11市的人口分布时空演化特征以及影响因素。结果表明:珠江—西江经济带人口密度呈现“东高西低”的分布格局,且地区差异显著;低、中、高值地区人口密度的年均增长量上升,人口分布地区差异扩大;人口分布具有不断集中的趋势,且不均衡状态加剧;Moran’s I值不断增大,珠江—西江经济带地区人口密度不断集聚,分布的空间相关性也不断强化。在分析影响因素时,引入空间计量模型,经判别检验后,确立SLM为最优模型,SLM的计量分析结果显示:人均GDP、职工平均工资、产业结构、公共服务水平都对经济带人口分布产生正向影响。因此,要想促进珠江—西江经济带人口合理分布,可以通过加快产业结构调整,推进经济带内一体化发展,提高公共服务水平和加大基础设施建设来实现。     

1912-1948年北京人口空间分布格局变动及原因研究

本文利用民国北京人口统计档案资料对民国北京人口空间分布的特点及原因做出动态分析。民国北京人口空间分布的最大特点是分布不均衡、密度大及人口性别比高。北京内外城人口数量与人口密度远大于四郊,各区人口密度相差悬殊,北京人口空间分布格局与人口密度增长呈现明显的圈层式特点及差异性变化。北京内城外围各区人口密度及其增长均大于中心区域;外城内侧区域人口密度大于边缘区域,但内侧区域人口密度增长却慢于边缘区域;东郊区、南郊区的人口密度及其增长大于西郊区及北郊区。总体上北京各区人口密度增长表现为内城快于外城,外城快于四郊。北京城郊区人口分布格局并非静止不变,内城人口密度呈现出由低于到最终高于外城的变动,外城人口数量也呈现出由少于到最终多于四郊的变动。民国北京人口空间分布的影响因素主要包括北京城市居住格局的改变、公共机构的建立、城市商业消费中心的北移及外来人口的聚集等。民国北京男性人口一直多于女性人口,因此人口性别比一直较高。北京男女人口城郊区分布不平衡,外城人口性别比最高,内城次之,四郊最低。民国北京人口性别比高的一个主要原因是外来人口以未婚男性青壮年居多,大量过剩未婚男性人口成为婚姻市场中的被挤压对象,也是社会不安定的潜在因素。     

中国流动人口分布的空间格局和影响因素——基于人口普查分县数据的研究北大核心

中国第七次全国人口普查数据显示2010年以来流动人口的规模和范围持续不断扩大,在全国人口增速放缓的背景下,流动人口依然保持了每年新增超过1000万人的快速增长。人口迁移已经成为影响中国人口空间格局的最主要因素。本文基于第五次至第七次全国人口普查分县数据,系统分析中国流动人口分布的空间格局、演变特征、影响因素。结果表明:流动人口分布的空间格局总体保持稳定,主导特征是高度集聚在东部沿海城市群。但是近10年来,内陆省份的省会城市和部分地级市市区的流动人口增长较快,使流动人口分布呈现出从东部逐步向中西部分散、从超大和特大城市向中小城市分散的趋势。近年来北方流动人口增长快于南方。省际流动人口规模占比从2010年开始持续下降,省内县际流动逐渐成为主导模式。人口流动由受经济因素单一驱动向受社会和自然环境因素共同驱动转变,公共服务机会和环境宜居等因素发挥着越来越重要的作用。当前我国流动人口空间格局的多元化特征越来越突出,为未来推动市民化提出了新的挑战。市民化政策需要解决落户“供给方”(城市)和落户“需求方”(流动人口)的空间错配问题。应从精准识别流动人口的群体和空间差异入手,制定差异化的治理策略和政策工具。     

东北三省人口流出空间格局及影响机制

在东北振兴战略实施20周年之际,东北三省人口流失问题亟待进一步梳理和总结。本文根据2005-2020年各省人口普查以及抽样调查数据,运用迁移网络与人口集聚度进一步细化研究主题的空间尺度并明确东北三省人口流出空间格局。本文基于人力资本迁移理论、新古典微观迁移理论与新空间经济学等构建了东北三省人口外流理论框架,并利用空间计量模型从实证角度验证经济与地方品质因素对东北三省流出人口空间格局的影响。结果表明：东北三省人口流出强度由北向南递减,区域内人口流动围绕哈长城市群与辽中南城市群呈现“一轴”的空间格局;东北三省区域外人口流出空间格局由“块状聚集”向“多点化聚集”转变,一级中心城市分布于京津地区,二级中心城市主要分布于青岛市、上海市、杭州市以及深圳市,三级中心城市广泛分布于山东半岛、长三角城市群与成都市、郑州市、西安市等中西部省会城市;密集区平均以7.76%的城市面积集聚了80.59%的东北三省流出人口,东部沿海城市基本被均值区以及密集区覆盖,中部地区的密集区呈现“点状分布”的格局,西部地区基本被稀疏区覆盖,其中深圳市、天津市、上海市与厦门市的东北三省流出人口集聚度水平显著高于全国其他城市;由...     

上海人口时空演化与公共资源配置的区域差异研究

受外来人口与市内人口迁移变动的双重影响,上海的人口规模及分布格局发生了较大变化。本文在分析2000--2010年上海人口时空演化特征的基础上,通过构建综合指数模型,测算公共资源配置的区域差异。研究发现．公共资源总量不足、部分资源结构性不匹配和地区之间不均衡的问题较为突出。未来应从调整完善人口管理模式、优化公共资源配置的供给模式、区位布局及提高效率,以及按照“有条件的均等化”的原则进行政策安排。     

内蒙古自治区人口分布变化及其原因分析

内蒙古自治区位于中国北部边疆,土地面积118·3万平方公里,约占全国总面积的1/8,居全国第三位。内蒙古行政区划辖12个盟、市,其中地级市9个,盟3个。内蒙古自治区地域辽阔,有着多种多样的地理环境,各地区的自然资源分布状况不同,民族分布各异,加之各地区经济发展进程不同,这些都影响着内蒙古的人口分布。研究内蒙古人口分布的现状及规律,并探寻其原因,对于生产力的合理分布,对于促进内蒙古的经济发展具有重要的现实意义。一、内蒙古自治区人口分布变动的测量人口分布是人口过程在空间上的表现形式。广义的理解,如一定地域内的人口增长、人口…     

主体功能区划背景下的甘肃省适度人口及人口再分布研究

主体功能区划促进了人口迁移和人口再分布。文章在甘肃省主体功能区划背景下,分析了甘肃省人口数量变化和空间布局特征．并利用P-E—R模型计算了重点开发区适度人口容量,进一步提出了人口再分布模式。结果表明：金川区、嘉峪关市、兰州市的人口承载能力强,适度人口容量大,而永登、榆中等9个县（区）的人口容量偏小,最后得出发展绿洲城镇、兰州都市圈、天水一陇南和陇东四大人口密集区的人口再分布格局。     

Natural decrease of population: The current and prospective status of an emergent American phenomenon

In the early 1950’s, more deaths than births began to occur in a few counties of the United States. The phenomenon has since spread, especially in the 1960’s. In 1966 it occurred in 271 counties, and had affected a total of 324 counties since 1950. Natural decrease had earlier been present in some areas of the United States during the 1930’s. At that time, it was primarily associated with population of low intrinsic fertility. Its occurrence since 1950, however, has not been related to inadequate childbearing rates, but rather to the development of distorted age structures. In most eases, the distortion is the product of prolonged and heavy outmigration of young adults to the extent that the number of couples of childbearing age remaining in an area is insufficient to produce births in excess of the number of deaths occurring to the larger older population. In a minority of cases, the excess of deaths has resulted from large in-migration of older people into retirement areas. The occurrence of natural decrease has been most heavily concentrated in the central part of the country, especially in marginal Corn Belt areas of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. It has also been common in central Texas. The counties affected are typically rural and agricultural, with a high median age, a history of population decline, and average population fertility. They had a total 1960 population of 4,003,000 persons. It is projected that an excess of deaths over births will have affected 520 or more counties by 1970, or about a sixth of all counties in the Nation. Given the increasing extent of the condition, research appraising its social and economic consequences for an area is urged.     

Key natural impacting factors of China’s human population distribution

China is a large country with a population of 1.292 billion, accounting for 1/5 of the world population. However, the geographical distribution of population is greatly unbalanced. There are many factors contributing to the unbalanced population distribution, including natural condition, social and economic development, and transportation infrastructure. In this article, we specifically explore how natural factors (resource and geographical factors) influence the population distribution. We use the multiple linear regression to analyze how the county population and prefecture (districts under city administration) population density is influenced by different natural factors. The analysis is conducted at two scales: the national scale and the regional scale (including east region, northeast region, middle region and west region). Our results show that arable land proportion, precipitation, elevation, accumulated temperature (also called Effective Accumulated Temperature (EAT), means the sum of daily temperature for the period of daily mean temperature (Td) above 10°C) and the distance from energy distribution location, the distance from main rivers are the significant factors for all the counties in China. For the prefectures, the significant impacting factors include elevation, arable land proportion and distance from the main rivers. For the east region, elevation and arable land proportion are the significant impacting factors of population distribution. For the northeast region, arable land proportion, precipitation and accumulated temperature are the significant impacting factors. For the middle region, arable land proportion, accumulated temperature, distance from energy distribution location and elevation are the significant impacting factors. For the west region, arable land proportion, precipitation, distance from the main rivers, distance from energy distribution location and accumulated temperature are the significant impacting factors.     

A primary research on the population influence on ecological environment in the mountain area of the South An Hui Province]

The 16 counties in the mountain region of South Anhui Province have a land mass of 29,176 sq. km and a 1983 population of 491,720,000, a majority of whom are farmers. Forests, tea and grains are the villages' major sources of income. 80% of the area is hilly; the climate is temperate and rainfall is adequate. In recent years, a rapid population increase and inattention to proper use of natural resources have eroded the environment. Since 1949 the population of this area increased 70%, putting tremendous pressure on the land and fuel. The demand for housing, factories, transportation and communication to accomodate the population increase constantly decreases the availability of farmland. Arable land decreased by about 3,000,000 sq. acres between 1949 and 1983. Because the average individual acreage is small, production is low, leading to frequent grain shortages. Forests are then destroyed to make farmland, but in the process, the flora and fauna are disturbed while production remains low and uneven. In addition, firewood, the main source of fuel, will not be replenished rapidly enough to meet the needs of the growing population. The quality of this mountain population also influences ecology. Almost 80% of the people are semi-literate, traditional in their attitudes and customs, and unreceptive to new ideas. Family planning has not been successful here, nor is there a deep understanding of the consequences of deforestation. It is necessary, then, to control this area's population growth, improve the population's quality, raise its environmental consciousness, and utilize its resources effectively.     

Recent nonmetropolitan population change in fifty-year perspective

Post-1970 nonmetropolitan population shifts are examined by dividing nonmetropolitan counties into ten cohorts based on the duration and direction of consistent population change since 1920. Analysis indicates that the post-1970 gains reported by Beale are pervasive in nonmetropolitan America, occurring even in a majority of the counties that lost population consistently from 1920 to 1970.Growth was greatest in counties adjacent to metropolitan areas but was more than urban spillover effect. In a clear break with traditional patterns, net inmigration contributed significantly to overall population gain and was particularly strong among counties without an urban center. The rate of natural increase continued to slow in the post-1970 period, with natural decrease becoming common among counties with protracted histories of population decline.     

未来全国和不同区域人口城镇化水平预测

城镇化将是我国未来几十年社会经济发展的动力之一。从人口学的角度讲,在加速城镇化过程中,人口三大因素,即出生、死亡、迁移的变化中,人口城乡迁移将是核心问题。本文在城镇化发展的中方案假设下,利用ⅡASA的模型对全国和地区未来30年人口城镇化水平进行预测。结果显示了全国和不同区域的城镇化长期趋势;揭示了城乡间的迁移和农村居民身份的改变,是城镇地区人口高速增长的重要因素。伴随城镇化的加速,农村地区人口老龄化速度快于城市。     

A reformulation of the two-sex problem

The ability of classical stable population theory to determine the equilibrium growth rate and age structure of a population from its vital rates in a single period depends on assuming that the observed maternity rates are equilibrium rates. This paper resolves the two-sex problem by replacing the fixed, age-specific fertility schedule of classical stable population theory by two basic relationships: a “birth matrix” and a “mating rule.” Placing certain restrictions on the birth matrix and the mating rule (BMMR), I establish that under certain plausible conditions, the BMMR model solves the two-sex problem by allowing matings and births to adjust to changes in population structure. The BMMR model thus provides an equilibrating mechanism in place of a fixed maternity schedule of classical stable population theory.