The challenge of youth unemployment

This article was prepared as a contribution to the ILO's Action Programme on Youth Unemployment. It presents an overview of the youth unemployment problem and youth employment policy principally from a European perspective, although it is hoped that much of the comment and analysis is relevant to afar broader range of countries. In the first section, which considers the nature and causes of youth unemployment, it is shown that its basic cause is aggregate demand rather than high youth wages or the size of the youth cohort, and suggests that a successful strategy for dealing with the problem must take this into account. In the second section, dealing principally with the examples of Germany and the United Kingdom, a number of factors are identified which influence the effectiveness of youth employment policy. In particular, it is found that precise targeting of programmes and the involvement of employers' and workers' organizations, as well as government, in the design and implementation of policy are both important determinants of an effective policy. A third section attempts to set the analysis in a more general context.     

日本对非提供政府发展援助的“政治功能”评析

非洲在日本的外交战略中占有重要地位,对非政府发展援助是日本开拓非洲外交的核心途径和基本方式。日本对非政府发展援助的政策目标虽然在不同的历史时期有着不同的侧重点,但是对经济和政治目标的追求一直是日本对非政府发展援助的基础,同时也具有日本战后塑造自身身份,在其印度洋战略和地缘政治外交背景下寻求国内外政策平衡的重要特性。日本积极扮演了对非援助提供者的角色,一方面在客观上促进了非洲地区国家的发展,另一方面也有助于其在此过程中建构大国领导形象以及维持自身经济的可持续发展。但日本要继续扩大对非政府发展援助,在诸多方面都存有困境,并且难以实现其关键性政策目标。     

霍华德政府时期澳大利亚在中美之间的平衡策略

霍华德执政初期紧跟美国,与中国摩擦不断,其后调整对华政策,逐步显现出在中美之间寻求平衡的外交策略。在与美国继续加强军事安全合作的同时,霍华德政府采取有别于美国的对华政策,注重改善中澳两国外交环境,发展同中国的经贸合作。采用这一外交策略的原因是澳国家利益最大化的要求,更是中美澳三方博弈互动的结果。     

两次世界大战期间英国的对外政策及外交困境

两次世界大战期间英国对外政策的演变是引人注目的。英国从一战的战胜国、巴黎和会的操纵者、"欧洲均势"的维护者,转变为20世纪30年代绥靖政策的推行者,其外交政策明显从主动走向被动,以至丧失外交主动权,不得不消极"避战",获得虚势的"和平"。英国绥靖政策的实行,有其错综复杂的国内背景和社会根源,但本质上是由盛转衰的英国丧失战斗意志的软弱表现。     

The analytic foundation of international economic modeling at the OECD

This article describes the OECD Secretariat's international linkage model, INTERLINK, built to assist various tasks, including the production of baseline international projections, the establishment and maintenance of international consistency of these projections, and the production of alternative projections and policy scenarios. It is thus concerned with the theory of the method of international forecasting and policy analysis, rather than the theory of forecasting itself. The article is divided into sections, which discuss the reasons for international economic modeling at OECD, the main tasks performed by the model, the technical requirements that it needs to satisfy, its present structure, and the experience with it.     

Cooperation between politicians and econometricians and the search for optimal economic policy

The problem of formalizing the cooperation between politicians and econometricians as an iterative—or trial and error—process, such that the weights in a preference function can be obtained in a finite number of steps, is considered. The approach is based on the pioneering suggestions made by Tinbergen and Frisch within the framework of a formal theory of economic policy. Using the implicit information given by a possible and implementable dialogue between a policy maker and a model builder it is shown that it is possible to take into account explicitly the interdependence between targets, instruments, and weights.     

Globalization, Regionalism and Social Policy

This paper explores the implications of globalization for social policy, and teases out those elements of globalization which have impinged most on it. Then it explores the most important ways in which globalization has had an effect on social policy. Seven issues are explored—the way in which globalization has highlighted and/or created new problems, its contribution to hollowing out the state, the way in which it has altered the balance of power between capital and labour, its contribution to stimulating an ideology of competitiveness, its re-establishing of the importance of trade in discussions about social policy and, finally, the way in which it has helped to make the maintenance of social order a new priority. The paper then explores the possibilities for supranational or regional social policy. It examines the case for moving towards such a policy and the problems of so doing.     

经济安全视角下日本外资管理政策变化分析CSSCI

从运用经济力维护国家安全的经济安全视角来看,外国直接投资所具有的直接、间接经济力与国家安全之间有密切的关系,世界各国都非常重视对外资的管理。长期以来,放松规制是日本外资管理政策的主基调,但是近年来,从经济安全视角出发,为了防止重要技术外泄等,日本政府在2007年、2017年和2019年进行的相关制度调整呈现出不断加强外资管理的迹象。这一方面是受到国际秩序变化、国际社会对军民两用技术重视度增强以及国际上外资管理趋强等因素的影响;另一方面,也更为重要的是,在当前形势下日本初步形成了经济安全战略思想。当前日本实施外资管理政策面临如何解决好外国直接投资引进与管控之间、维护经济安全的技术政策与坚.持自由贸易原则之间的平衡等问题,这些问题的解决路径蕴含着日本外资管理政策变化的趋势。     

艾森豪威尔政府对发展援助政策的调整与美国冷战战略

秉承共和党传统理念的艾森豪威尔政府,在上任伊始即确定了对外经济政策的原则--"贸易而非援助",这一原则从一开始在美国政界就引起争议.随着苏联在发展中国家经济活动的活跃,艾森豪威尔政府从第一届政府后期开始调整发展援助政策.一方面逐渐加大了发展援助在整个对外援助中的比重;另一方面诉诸国际多边援助体系,建立了国际开发协会,并将发展援助的重点转向拉丁美洲国家.艾森豪威尔政府调整发展援助的主要动因还是出于对苏冷战的考虑,即稳定美国在发展中国家政治盟友的主导地位,同苏联争夺广阔的中间地带.     

Electoral Politics, Ideology and American Social Policy

This article addresses the politics of social policy in the context of the 2004 American presidential election. It examines the divisions in American society and their distinctive agendas. It also explores the record of the Bush administration on key social policy issues and shows how it relates to the broader conservative tradition as well as to the Clinton administration's reform of welfare. Finally, it examines the election results. The article argues that the Bush administration has a distinctive agenda on social policy issues and that its approach is likely to reduce further the role of the social government in the provision of social policy, by emphasizing market forces and philanthropy as well as cutting taxes. It also notes, however, that the Bush administration has taken a strong stance on traditional moral values and that its opposition to abortion and homosexuality is an important part of its political strategy.     

The Reform of Health Policy in China – Left Behind in the Race to Industrialize?

A major programme of health reform was announced in 2009. China is growing fast, and is beginning to engage with the international social policy community to discuss and review the consequences of rapid industrialization. As a specific part of social policy, health policy shares some of the characteristics of a policy area driven by the consequences of industrialization, but it also has its own particular features. This article reviews the general relationship between state and citizens in the health field by way of an introduction before focussing more specifically on Chinese patterns of health inequalities, and the pressures for reform. The 2009 reform of health policy and its dynamics are then presented, and the article concludes that there has been a deterioration in Chinese health policy, which threatens to undermine the benefits of economic growth for Chinese people.     

End of double taxation: Is the policy better when announced?

This paper examines the effectiveness of the “end of double taxation” (on dividends) policy in stabilizing an economy. Both announced and unannounced policies are considered. A reduction in double taxation stimulates investment and improves welfare, but its impact on output is moderate and it has a negative effect on work hours. A temporary cut creates an investment boom but also generates an investment slump when the tax cut expires. Announcements of future tax cuts are found to have important effect on output dynamics. Agents respond to the tax policy even before it is implemented. If the tax cut is announced to be temporary, its impact on output is greatly reduced. Our study suggests that a temporary dividend tax cut is most effective in stabilizing a recession stricken economy when the policy change comes as “news” to the economy.     

Debate Pollution rituals in Sweden: the pursuit of a drug-free society

The logic of Sweden's restrictive drug policy has led its advocates to promote increasingly extreme measures. Making the consumption of drugs not only a criminal offence but an imprisonable one has enabled the authorities to subject suspected drug users to urine and blood tests. This extreme policy can be understood as a response by a society so obsessed by health, cleanliness and order that drug use has taken on symbolic significance. In its determination to rid the social body of drugs, the Swedish authorities have shown that they will seek our pollution by whatever measures available. In doing so they are in danger of becoming repressive and intolerant.     

Policy modeling: Definition, classification and evaluation

This paper introduces a definition, a way of classifying and a method of evaluating policy modeling. An analytical tool called “Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC-Index)” has been developed for the purposes of evaluating policy modeling. The PMC-Index enables policy-makers and researchers to identify the level of consistency as well as the strengths and weaknesses within any policy modeling. The implementation of the PMC-Index involves the following four basic steps: (i) the use of multi-input-output table; (ii) classification of variables and identification of parameters; (iii) measurement of the PMC-Index; (iv) construction of the PMC-Surface. Through the PMC-Index, this paper promotes multidisciplinary approach to policy modeling. It suggests that various possible effects of any economic policy can be shown using a multi-dimensional graphical means.     

A Critique of the Concept of Social Exclusion and its Utility for Australian Social Housing Policy

The paper reviews the usefulness of the concept of social exclusion for Australian social housing policy. We draw on recent theoretical and empirical research from Europe and the UK to develop a critique of the concept of social exclusion. It is argued that any assessment of social exclusion needs to distinguish between its utility as an academic explanatory concept and its political deployment to justify new forms of policy intervention. Policy targeting anti‐social behaviour through increasingly more punitive means, for instance, is often justified on the basis that it ameliorates the problems of social exclusion experienced by tenants residing in public housing estates. We conclude that, in spite of the limitations of social exclusion as an analytical concept, for political and pragmatic reasons it is likely to become an important component of the emerging Australian housing policy agenda.     

RESPONDING TO FEMALE GENITAL MUTILATION: THE AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE IN CONTEXT

The increasing number of migrant women and girls in Australia affected by female genital mutilation (PGM) presents a significant challenge for public policy. Addressing FGM requires an understanding of the practice, its incidence and consequences; as of the cultural patterns and belief systems that underwrite it in those countries where it is commonly practised. Australian policy and programmatic responses to FGM are placed in the context of both international initiatives and those in other countries of settlement, and the underlying principles that guide effective FGM policy development identified.     

Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?

Over the last few decades several countries have turned to inflation targeting as a policy choice for instilling stability into their economies. Prior studies have shown that inflation targeting has reduced inflation in those countries without significantly impacting GDP. This study seeks to improve upon these results by identifying the impact of timing on the policy decision as well as its impact as related to specific regions of the world. The focus is on developing countries across six regions. We find significant regional variation in developing countries in our sample in terms of the direction of changes in inflation following a switch to the inflation targeting policy. Moreover, although the impact of inflation targeting on real GDP is minimal overall, there is a statistically significant increase in real GDP among developing countries in certain regions only, namely, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.     

美国干涉南海问题的政策趋势

伴随美国全球外交战略的调整,奥巴马政府强势介入南海问题,使南海争端的复杂化和国际化几成定势。美国南海政策与其亚太政策的目标一致,在于加强其对该地区安全事务的领导权和预防地区大国崛起的挑战。本文从中美互动、美国与东盟互动以及中国与东盟互动的三个视角,对最近几轮（特别是2011年夏季以来的新一轮）南海争端进行再观察,厘清美国逐步积极、深入介入南海问题的政策转型轨迹,及今后将长期对我解决南海争端进行干预的政策趋势。同时指出,南海问题的实质是美国的霸权边际与中国影响力扩展的必然碰撞,中国需用有战略高度的新思维应对之。     

What's in a Name? ‘Work and Family’ or ‘Work and Life’ Balance Policies in the UK since 1997 and the Implications for the Pursuit of Gender Equality

Since 1997, Labour has developed a wide range of policies on childcare services, care leaves and flexible working hours. In 2000, the term ‘work‐life balance’ was introduced and has been used by Government Departments and by the academic community with very little discussion of its meaning vis à vis the use of ‘family‐friendly’ policies, or the promotion of ‘work and family balance’. We explore the introduction of the term work‐life balance, the reasons for it, and its significance at the policy level, especially in terms of its implications for the pursuit of gender equality. We find that at the policy level, its use was more a matter of strategic framing than substantive change. Nevertheless, because of the UK Government's largely gender‐neutral approach to the whole policy field, it is important to make explicit the tensions in the continuing use of the term work‐life balance, particularly in relation to the achievement of gender equality.     

Cash‐for‐care policy in Sweden: An appraisal of its consequences on female employment

In 2008, Sweden introduced a cash‐for‐care benefit consisting of a flat‐rate sum paid by municipalities to parents whose children were between the ages of one and three and who did not use publicly subsidised childcare. The main object of the reform was to increase parents’ ‘freedom to choose’, but the policy was criticised because of its potentially negative effects on gender equality and mothers’ employment. This study focuses on the effects of cash‐for‐care on female employment in Sweden. The study shows that the adoption of this policy had negative effects on female employment, although primarily in rural areas. Cash‐for‐care was abolished in Sweden in 2016. To evaluate the effects that the policy had on female employment during the time it was in place is important as it indicates what may happen if the policy is introduced again.