Are Subsidies to be Blamed? A Reexamination of U.S. Countervailing Duty on Hog Imports From Canada

A dramatic increase in U.S. hog imports from Canada triggered a successful countervail action against Canada in 1985, and resulted in an import tariff. This paper finds Canadian subsidies were not a major factor explaining increased hog exports, rather, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar played a larger role. More importantly, we find that hog imports from Canada did not “injure” the U.S. industry. These results imply the U.S. hog countervail duty was the outcome of rent-seeking activities rather than due to economic factors.     

The impact of the Soviet Union upon the U.S. feed/livestock sector— An assessment

In this article, the impact of volatile Soviet Union corn imports on the U.S. feed/livestock sector is analyzed using an econometric model. The model's attention to supply response when feed price changes enables it to determine the nature of the effect of exogenous shocks across feed and livestock sectors. The model is used in historical simulation to demonstrate the effects of actual and alternative paths of variable Soviet import demand and to explore the difficulties of deriving a stabilizatior policy for these linked sectors.     

The economic consequences of an import surcharge: Theory and empirical evidence for the U.S. economy

This paper analyzes the impact of a 20 percent import surcharge on all U.S. imports and on imports from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil. The analytical framework is based upon the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade. We also discuss the methodology and results of two recent papers on the effects of an import surcharge. The empirical results indicate that, while the macroeconomic consequences of an import surcharge would be limited, significant intersectoral trade and employment adjustments would take place. The competitive position of U.S. tradable industries may improve or deteriorate depending on whether the dollar depreciates or appreciates in response to the import surcharge.     

Impact of Japanese investment in U.S. automobile production

The transfer of automobile production by Japanese firms to the United States represents a giant direct foreign investment. Using the disaggregated NIRA U.S.-Japan model in the framework of Project LINK, this article evaluates the impact of these investments on the U.S. and Japanese economies. The benefit in terms of auto production, capacity, employment, activity in supplier industries, and aggregate GNP in the United States is readily apparent. Japanese industry has incentives to move production into the United States to avoid protectionism and to guard against adverse movements of the exchange rate and production costs, but there is some loss in output and related variables in Japan.     

Automobile prices and protection: The U.S.-Japan trade restraint

We examine the effects of the U.S.-Japan trade restraint on automobile prices and quality upgrading, for both Japanese imports and American small cars. From April 1981 to April 1984 the suggested retail price of all Japanese models increased by 15.8 percent, or 5.3 percent per year. We find that nearly the entire amount of this rise can be explained by the upgrading of individual models. This upgrading may benefit consumers who would purchase a luxury import in any case, but harms those who desire the basic imports. In addition to upgrading, we conclude that a second cost of the trade restraint has been to prevent the yen depreciation from being passed onto American consumers, in terms of lower imported auto prices. For U.S. small cars we find a 9.1 percent rise in the suggested retail price, or 3 percent per year, with a fraction of this amount due to model upgrading. If the yen depreciation had led to lower import prices without the trade restraint, then we expect that U.S. auto prices would have been lower, too.     

Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

Restructuring for import competition from developing countries,I: Labor displacement and economic redeployment in the United States

The widely-held belief that imports into America have been responsible for job losses in labor intensive industries is examined. It is shown that economic growth impacts on these industries, and that productivity growth and chaning demand patterns, have been quantitatively larger than changes in trade levels affecting employment in individual industries. It is concluded that protection can do very little to affect employment trends in affected industries.     

Cross‐Border Earnings of U.S. Natives Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. This study explores whether the earnings of U.S.‐born cross‐border workers differ from those of their U.S.‐employed counterparts. We also analyze whether the cross‐border/non‐cross‐border wage differential changed during the 1990s—a decade when U.S.‐Mexico trade intensified and the maquiladora industry expanded. Methods. Employing decennial U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000, this article estimates earnings functions and uses wage decomposition analysis to study changes in the earnings of U.S.‐born Hispanic and non‐Hispanic cross‐border workers. Results. The number of U.S.‐native cross‐border workers, while relatively small, increased significantly between 1990 and 2000, as did their earnings. A closer examination reveals that this cross‐border earnings premium only developed among non‐Hispanics. Conclusions. These findings indicate that some U.S. natives find lucrative employment opportunities on the Mexican side of the border, which might be diminished by additional restrictions for U.S.‐born residents to easily cross back and forth into Mexico.     

The benefits to Caribbean Basin countries from the U.S. CBI tariff eliminations

The Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act eliminates U.S. tariffs on many exports of countries in the Caribbean Sea and Central America. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these tariff eliminations on the export earnings and economic welfare of the beneficiary countries. It is found that the tariff eliminations increase annual export earnings of beneficiaries by at most $81 million and provide annual welfare gains to these countries of $15 million to $24 million. The benefits are concentrated in agricultural products (particularly sugar, beef, and tobacco) and in products assembled from U.S. components for export to the United States (particularly electronic equipment). The countries that benefit most are the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Guatemala.     

U.S. Labor supply and demand in the long run

In this paper we model U.S. labor supply and demand over the next 25 years. Despite the anticipated aging of the population, moderate population growth will provide growing supplies of labor well into the 21st century. Improvements in labor quality due to greater education and experience will also continue for some time, but will eventually disappear. Productivity growth for the U.S. economy will be below long-term historical averages, but labor-using technical change will be a stimulus to the growth of labor demand. Year-to-year changes in economic activity will be primarily the consequence of capital accumulation. However, the driving forces of economic growth over the long term will be demography and technology.     

Free trade,food-processing,and migration: An analysis of Mexican immigration in the U.S. Great Plains Region

This paper empirically identifies the factors driving Mexican immigration into the U.S. Great Plains region, focusing especially on the role of work in the Mexican and U.S. food-processing sectors, which in the context of NAFTA-induced foreign direct investments, opens up paths for migration along occupational lines into the U.S. from Mexico. Using a unique dataset on Mexican migration, the study addresses three related questions in a series of multivariate logistic regression analyses. First, is employment in the U.S. food-processing sector associated with Mexican migration into the Great Plains region? Second, does employment in the Mexican food-processing sector predict employment in the Great Plains food-processing sector? Finally, is the political–economic context linking Mexico and the U.S. related to the formation of occupational channels linking the food-processing sectors in Mexico and the U.S.? The findings demonstrate that the U.S. food-processing sector is a strong predictor of Mexican migration to the Great Plains region; Mexican migration is strongly channeled along occupational lines from Mexico to the U.S.; and the implementation of NAFTA, a period of intensive political–economic integration, strengthens the occupational channel between the food-processing sectors.     

The effects of Mexico's devaluations and tariff changes on U.S. exports

The recent economic crisis in Mexico has been accompanied by several devaluations of the peso and a change in Mexico's tariff schedule. With Mexico being the third largest trading partner of the U.S. any serious disruption of this trade flow could significantly affect U.S. exports. This article presents estimates of the decline in U.S. exports in total and by industry. In total, the decline amounts to approximately $4.5 billion or a reduction in U.S. exports to Mexico of 31 percent. In addition, it is shown that approximately 40 percent of this total reduction in U.S. exports occurs in 15 product categories with 4 product categories accounting for about one-fifth of the total reduction. As is evident, only a few industries will bear a large percentage of the decline in U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Distributional implications of changes in U.S. petroleum taxation

This article develops a methodology based on input-output relations for the evaluation of excise tax incidence. Since many excise taxes are levied on products that are used not only in final consumption but also as intermediate inputs in the production of other commodities, estimation of the tax burden by the conventional methodology of using direct final consumption may yield inadequate and perhaps misleading results. The input-output methodology developed in this article is applied to the case of the U.S. taxation of petroleum products and the empirical results are compared with similar ones obtained by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office.     

Mexican Immigrant Self‐Employment Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border: An Analysis of 2000 Census Data*

Objective. This study explores the entrepreneurial tendencies of Mexican immigrants in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on the U.S. side of the Mexican border vis‐à‐vis the U.S. interior. Methods. Using 2000 Census data available in the 5% Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, we empirically analyze the self‐employment rates and earnings of Mexican immigrants residing in U.S. cities near Mexico versus those in nonborder MSAs. Results. Our findings indicate that Mexican immigrants in MSAs along the U.S.‐Mexico border have significantly higher self‐employment rates (but lower earnings) than their counterparts in the rest of the United States and non‐Hispanic whites in border cities. Explanations for these findings include the existence of trade opportunities in U.S. border cities as well as intense labor market competition that crowds a greater share of immigrants into self‐employment. Conclusion. Immigration reform that curtails the immigration flow from Mexico might hinder small business formation and economic development on the U.S. side of the Mexican border.     

Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies

We analyze the spillovers of Western economic sanctions against Russia into twenty-seven transition economies of the former Soviet Union, and Central and Eastern Europe. These spillovers are measured in terms of their impact on bilateral trade and direct investments for the period of 2014–2018. We construct a new dataset to quantify each episode of Western/US sanctions against Russia. The gravity models of bilateral trade and direct investment are used and the data analysis is conducted using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood econometric technique. We estimate that the Western and U.S. sanctions against Russia spilled over into third-party small countries. These sanctions resulted in the significant decline of exports from transition economies, Russian imports to transition economies, and Russian direct investments to transition economies. Interestingly, the direct investments to Russia from transition economies sharply increased during the same period. The quantitative estimates of the spillovers suggest the following cumulative changes. Due to an imposed sanction type (e.g., against an individual, entity or sector) each episode of Western/U.S. sanction resulted in the decline of aforementioned indicators in the range of 10.9–30.5-million-dollar/5.6–16.9-million-dollar of exports from transition economies, 6.3–17.7-million-dollar/3.3–9.8-million-dollar of Russian imports to transition economies, and 3.4–9.4-million-dollar/1.7–5.2-million-dollar of Russian direct investments to transition economies. The direct investments to Russia from transition economies increased by 10.9–30.6-million-dollar/5.7–17-million-dollar, respectively.     

Input-output technologies and the effects of tariff reductions

Using input-output (IO) tables from several developed countries (United States, EEC, and Japan) and one developing country (Brazil), we calculate the effects of tariff removal using various combinations of these tables to represent technologies for the countries included in the Michigan Computational Model of World Production and Trade. Among the IO tables, Brazil's reflected unusually high shares of value added, low labor shares, and small supply elasticities. Supply elasticities for the developed countries were somewhat lower than for the United States. Using the Michigan model, our calculated effects of tariff reductions are overstated using the U.S. IO table to represent technologies for other developed countries. Further, for developing countries that use import licensing, the model shows considerable sensitivity to IO table specification. It is especially important, therefore, for computational purposes to obtain the most accurate information possible about IO structures of developing countries.     

扩张与收缩：论美国外交的周期性

自1801年托马斯·杰斐逊总统上台以来，美国外交即呈现出“扩张——收缩——再扩张——再收缩……”的周期模式。从上一次扩张到下一次扩张或从上一次收缩到下一次收缩的平均时间约为45年左右。迄今为止，美国外交经历了四个半周期。美国经济的周期性波动、国际局势的变动、国内思潮的转换等因素是推动美国外交扩张与收缩的主要动力。当前美国外交开始步入第五个周期的收缩期，这将对世界和中国产生重大影响。     

气候安全威胁美国的国计民生

本文通过在美国访问期间所作的《美国气候变化和国际安全的调查问卷》数据报告,进行系统的整理分析,来分析气候变化所带来的直接安全和间接安全问题。气候变化的影响远不限于它本身带来的生态威胁,由其所产生的国际冲突、资源争夺和国际干预也对美国外交提出了新的挑战。问卷结果显示,气候变化在中长期（至2025年前后）将会逐渐成为影响美国国家安全比较重要的因素,美国国内对于气候安全的共识将会逐渐加深。美国对气候安全政治化和国际化的重视程度日益深入,这会给未来美国参与全球气候谈判注入新的动力。世界各国应对美国的气候外交有所关切,并在合作中进行积极应对。     

Costs and distortion of U.S. regulation policy in intercoastal lumber shipping

This article quantitatively analyzes the various impacts of current U.S. coastal restrictions on the Northwest lumber industry. The history of U.S. maritime regulation is briefly reviewed and a simulation model is developed to measure its affect on lumber shipments and transport costs. The results of the model indicate that aggregate cost redutions obtained through deregulation are likely to be small. The pattern of intercoastal shipments could change a great deal, however, with U.S. producers picking up a large share of the Northeast market.     

Effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy: Empirical estimates of crowding out

This study examines the short-and intermediate-run effects of a permanent reduction in U.S. personal income taxes on interest rates, output, prices, exchange rates, and the current account, holding government spending and money growth fixed. The theoretical analysis suggests that interest rates and domestic consumption will rise but that net exports and interest-sensitive expenditures will fall. Also, the foreign currency value of the dollar will rise except possibly when output increases due to positive supply-side effects or to elimination of unemployment. These theoretical conclusions are essentially confirmed by simulations using the Federal Reserve Board's MPS quarterly econometric model and its multicountry model.