论亚行大湄公河次区域合作未来发展规划与中国的任务

亚洲地区在经济发展过程中面临着新的挑战。大湄公河地区是亚洲经济增长较为薄弱的次区域之一。该地区的经济繁荣与社会稳定不仅能够为亚洲经济的进一步发展打下基础,而且也有助于中国未来地缘经济和政治目标的实现。亚行将制定未来10年大湄公河次区域发展战略,中国应及时把握亚行战略方向,以亚行自身发展战略为基础,结合中国未来10年经济社会发展总体目标,推动大湄公河次区域合作向有利于各成员国的方向发展。     

The dynamics among entrepreneurship,innovation, and economic growth in the Eurozone countries

Economic growth in the Eurozone has been lacklustre over the last two decades due to increased global competition from economic players in other regions, economic and financial crisis, and political uncertainties within the zone. To increase the global competitiveness of the region, the European Union launched the Europe 2020 Strategy to raise the level of entrepreneurship and innovation, which are purported to be key drivers of economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this assertion is true. Thus, the paper investigates the Granger causal relationships among entrepreneurship development, innovation, and economic growth for a sample of the Eurozone countries for the period 2001–2016. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds that in the long run, both entrepreneurship and innovation stimulate economic growth. In the short run, strong causal links exist but are not always uniform. The results reveal that Eurozone countries should indeed base their growth strategies on policies that promote innovation and policies that create incentives for entrepreneurship.     

Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Regional Economic Growth？—— With an Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure

在综合考虑多维要素对中国区域经济增长的协同作用的基础上,构建交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出模型,利用1993．2009年的中国省级面板数据和空间计量经济学的研究方法,实证分析得出以下主要结论。（1）中国交通基础设施对区域经济增长的产出弹性值合计约0．05．0．07,表明其对中国区域经济增长具有重要的作用。（2）中国交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应非常显著,若不考虑空间溢出效应,会高估交通基础设施对区域经济增长的作用。（3）外地交通基础设施对本地经济增长表现为以正的空间溢出效应为主,但是也有空间负溢出的证据。（4）在影响区域经济增长的多维要素中,劳动力与其他公共部门资本存量对中国区域经济弹性的贡献仍然较大,新经济增长因素与新经济地理因素的作用也不容忽视。     

中国对外直接投资对加纳就业的影响研究

加纳共和国把对外直接投资（roI）视为转变本国经济增长的一个关键性因素。依靠商务关系和公平竞争的市场,中国致力于为加纳提供一个全新的发展模式。这种模式有别于西方风格：优先强调社会经济的稳定性,而非优先倡导民主,通过促进产品差异化和引进不同的市场竞争机制促进经济的发展。定量分析来自中国的对外直接投资流量对加纳就业的影响和作用,从2006年至2010年新产生的就业岗位总量中大约9l％来自中国对加纳的投资,其中加纳人占新就业人员的大部分,外来人员只占很少的比例。从2006年至2010年,加纳大约80％或更多来自中国的投资大部分集中在制造业、建筑业和一般贸易部门,为加纳提供了新的就业机会。     

Development and environment: An illustrative model

Many aspects of the physical environment are affected by the process of economic growth and development, creating a need to understand the internal dynamics of environmental systems and their relation to the level and price of economic activity. The present paper sets forth a simple mathematical model of environment, and uses it to illustrate the relationship between economic development and the environment. The model incorporates dynamic features of environmental change—its self-regenerating capacity and the existence of an extinction threshold—and measures the effects of the state of development and its rate of growth in terms of extraction, consumption or destruction, and beneficial inputs. The model also allows consideration of alternative relations defining the extinction threshold, carrying capacity, and the basic growth rate of the environmental system. Both the effect of development on the environment and the reverse-feedback effect of the environment on development are considered.     

广西北部湾经济区产业布局对转变经济发展方式的影响分析

经济发展方式的转变是北部湾经济区的必然选择。北部湾经济区开发带来了一系列重大工业布局和重点项目建设,对经济增长和产业结构升级带来了明显的效果,但是也产生了一系列的问题。北部湾经济区应从产业布局的角度调整优化投资结构、产业结构等,促进经济区发展方式转变。     

东北区域经济发动机形成的宏观需求与国际效应

经过四分之一世纪的经济增长,中国出现了沿海岸线向内陆延伸,发达程度呈梯次递退的不同经济区域,在沿海地区形成了珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和泛渤海地区三个世界级的经济发动机。东北是具有加重型产业和原材料产业优势的区域,它不应成为沿海地区的经济后院,而应坚持自己的区域特色,整合产业链形成自己的发动机力量,成为中国经济增长的第四根支柱,这也是中国和世界经济发展的宏观需求。如果在未来十年至十五年内形成东北、中部和中南部三个新的世界级经济发动机,那么中国将可能继续成为世界经济发展的火车头力量。     

China’s Economic Development and Development Economics Innovation

China has experienced rapid economic growth since its reform and opening up 40 years ago. The prime mover and key driver of these amazing achievements originated in China’s transformation from a planned economy to a socialist market economy, and from a closed economy to an open economy. The optimal allocation of the various factors of production and the interaction of economic growth and structural upgrading also played a significant part. China’s economic growth over the 40 years has applied, and proven effective, the general principles of development economics, and more importantly, based on the realities of China, it has contributed to theoretical innovation and institutional innovation, leading China along the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Entering the new era, China is committed to building a modern economic system and promoting high-quality development under the guidance of the new development concepts of innovation, coordination, green development, opening up and sharing.     

A new challenge to economic science: Global model simulation

The FUGI (Futures of Global Interdependence) global modeling system has been developed as a scientific policy modeling and future simulation tool of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy co-ordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the global economy co-existing on the planet Earth in the ever changing universe. The FUGI global model M200 classifies the world into 200 countries/regions where each national/regional model is globally interdependent. Each national/regional model has nine subsystems as population, foods, energy, environment, economic development, peace and security, human right, healthcare and quality of life (IT revolution). This is a super complex dynamic system model using integrated multidisciplinary systems analysis where number of structural equations is over 170,000. Economic model as a core includes major economic variables such as production of GDP, employment, expenditures of GDP, income distribution, prices, money, interest rates and financial assets, government finance, international balance of payments, international finance, foreign exchange rates and development indicators.The purpose of this article is twofold, namely to provide information on a new frontier science of economics: global model simulation as well as appropriate policy exercise for sustainable development of the interdependent global economy. The world economy is facing “green” energy revolution to change from fossil to create alternative energy and energy saving technology against sky rocketing higher oil prices. Japan takes a lead in this field of technology innovation. Under such circumstances, Japan should take an initiative to create a new peaceful world through not only harmonized adjustments of Japanese economic policy but also wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the fluctuated global economy. Japan should challenge for a new strategy to accelerate economic growth rates by “CO₂ reducing environment investment” based on technology innovations.     

Welfare Rigidity,the Composition of Public Expenditure and the Welfare Trap

Welfare expenditure is characterized by rigidity, i.e., it goes up easily but is very hard to get down. We introduced welfare rigidity into an endogenous growth model that includes government expenditure to analyze the impact of welfare rigidity and the composition of public expenditure on economic growth and family utility. Our findings show that welfare spending and economic growth have a non-monotonic relationship that is negative or inverted U-shaped depending on cross-country differences. Higher welfare rigidity reduces long-term economic growth and household utility. According to the estimated optimal size of welfare expenditure, China, as a developing country with a large population, has to do all it can to improve people’s livelihood but must at the same time weigh its limited resources so that its welfare expenditure does not fall into a “welfare trap.”     

中国价格贸易条件与经济增长关系的实证研究

文章在对我国价格贸易条件与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究后指出:我国价格贸易条件具有持续恶化的变动趋势;我国价格贸易条件与经济增长之间具有长期、稳定的协整关系;我国经济增长无论在长、短期上,对价格贸易条件均有显著的Granger影响,而价格贸易条件变化对经济增长的长、短期Granger影响并不显著.     

China's Pro-Poor Growth: Measurement and Implications

ABSTRACT. Pro-poor growth has been the preeminent strategic framework of the international development community because it describes relationships between growth, inequality, and poverty. Assessing whether economic growth and income distributional changes are “pro-poor” has important policy implications and has become increasingly widespread in academic and policy societies. The article aims to measure the pro-poor growth in rural China from 1989 to 2009 through analyzing the household survey data collected by the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Among the main findings, from 1989 to 2006, China's economic growth in rural areas was relatively weakly pro-poor and poverty reduction mainly relied on the “trickle-down effect” of economic growth. However, since 2006, both the “trickle-down effect” of growth and changes in income distribution have reduced poverty. During this period, Chinese economic growth was pro-poor. Research on pro-poor growth based on more comprehensive data is urgently needed to advise policymakers to make relevant policies.     

中国学术话语体系的译学审思--“反向格义”抑或“中西会通”

“反向格义”与“中西会通”是构建中国学术话语存在的两种认知取向和方法选择。近现代中西学术交流在反向格义过程中完成了对中国学术的形塑,同时也造就了中国学术对西方话语的依附,给中国学术带来相当的片面性偏差。对中国学术而言,不能为了避免西方话语的反向格义而在学术上走向自我封闭,会通中西方已有学术资源进行思想创新是建设中国学术话语体系应有的实践智慧和理性诉求。中国学术的发展道路不是简单地“去西方话语”,而是要以中国立场寻求与西方学术的深度对话,唯此才能避免在格义天平首鼠两端,在中西会通基础上建立中国学术话语的主体性。     

“捆绑式发展”与“隐喻型政治”——对汶川地震灾区平坝羌寨的案例研究

笔者对汶川地震灾区平坝羌寨旅游开发与重建过程进行实地考察,把由政府主导“现代化工程”的社会发展样式称为“捆绑式发展”。在这种发展模式的运作过程中,当地社会发生了一系列权力与话语博弈事件,国家主流意识形态中的“发展话语”被村民巧妙地操作化运用,演绎出某种较新的草根政治“版本”,这种现象本文称之为“隐喻型政治”。“捆绑式发展”与“隐喻型政治”之间存在诸多值得关注的联系,透过这种联系,可以从某个视角窥探到中国基层政治形态的一些微妙演化和值得关注的新动向。     

温室气体减排与中国的环境外交

在围绕温室气体减排的问题上,国际社会展开了复杂的斗争。作为世界上现排放温室气体总量第二、温室气体排放增量最多的国家,中国已经成为举世瞩目的焦点。在温室气体减排问题上,中国面临巨大的国际压力。与此同时,我们也应看到,中国如果要在国际社会上树立一个负责任的大国形象,消除＂中国威胁论＂,那么应该也能够为国际社会做出自己的贡献。我国应以温室气体减排为契机,实现经济增长方式的转变。＂共同但有区别的责任＂应成我国在全球气候谈判中的指导原则。     

中国—东盟经济关系与地区整合的前景

中国与东南亚国家经济合作近年来呈现出较快发展的态势,正成为东亚地区整合的重要模式。这不仅体现在中国与东盟以及日本、韩国为预防东亚金融危机的再次发生,努力推进清迈倡议多边化的进程中,更体现在双方建立自由贸易区的过程中。中国与东盟的经济关系促进了双方关系在更多领域的发展,对构建东亚地区整合具有积极意义。中国对支持东盟在地区合作中发挥领导者作用的立场不仅稳定了双方关系,对构建东亚新秩序也具有积极意义。     

我国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应(英文)

鉴于我国的城乡二元结构,本文使用泰尔指数度量和刻画我国的城乡收入差距及其变化特征。同时,本文设定了非线性阈值协整模型,以揭示我国改革开放以来城乡收入差距与实际经济增长的长期非线性关系。结果表明,长期非线性闽值关系在泰尔指数为0．100（阈值）处发生机制转移：1978—1991年,我国城乡收入差距对实际增长的长期效应为正;1992—1999年,收入差距对实际增长的效应由正向负平滑转换;1999年后,我国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长产生阻滞作用,且负效应呈逐年增加趋势。     

Is China Affected by the Resource Curse? A Critical Review of the Chinese Literature

This meta-analysis aims to identify the relationship between natural resources abundance and economic growth in China to provide policy guidance for sustainable development. Empirical evidence was collected from 44 studies published in Chinese between 2005 and 2017 at provincial and city level. Results show that the existence of the resource curse is ambiguous. Although most of the studies conclude that the resource curse exists, particularly in the fast-growing central and western regions of China, a number of studies find the opposite. This latter finding is mainly attributed to other growth determinants and transition mechanisms, such as spillover effects driving the demand for natural resources and resulting in higher prices. Significant methodological advances have been made over the past decade, both in terms of the econometric modelling of causal relationships between economic growth and natural resources and the level of empirical control through the inclusion of new explanatory factors. However, in order to enhance the comparability of results, more attention should be paid to the types of resources and their measurement, alternative determinants of economic growth, such as new economic policies, as well as the application of appropriate econometric modeling approaches. The paper ends with policy recommendations.     

储蓄率与经济增长的关系研究——基于中国1978～2008年间的数据分析

储蓄率在现代经济增长理论中占有极其重要的地位,是影响经济增长率的重要变量,大量实证研究也证实了这一点。基于中国1978～2008年间的数据,采用Granger因果检验来分析储蓄率和经济增长之间的关系,分析结果显示：经济增长率是储蓄率的Granger原因,但储蓄率对经济增长率的影响作用不显著。因此,中国宏观调控政策的重点应当放在启动消费上,适度改善投资结构,加强对可贷资金的引导和规范,保证储蓄向投资转化渠道的畅通。     

The Chinese Model of Development： An International Perspective

随着中国改革开放事业的成功，国内外关于中国模式的研究日渐增多。然而，大多数学者尤其是西方学者在研究中国模式时，往往会回避中国的政治模式，仅仅把中国模式局限于中国在经济上的成功。但实际上，如果不讨论中国的政治模式，就很难理解中国的经济模式，因为到目前为止，中国的经济模式正是中国的政治模式促成的。对很多发展中国家而言，如何建立稳定的政治社会秩序是其面I艋的艰巨挑战，对此，中国模式的政治和经济内涵都非常具有借鉴意义。