数海青春献康巴

我是一个大山里生、大山里长的统计人.父母给我了山的骨架与肌肉,而统计却给了我成长的源泉和粮食.我在人称世界第三极的康藏高原工作,一提起康藏高原,许多人会情不自禁地联想到那里湛蓝的天,洁白的云,无垠的雪和高远的山,然而,又有谁知道圣洁下面难以掩盖的是恶劣的环境、艰苦的条件,还有千年的荒凉.     

传统流失文化设防并非妄谈

中华民族有着源远流长的文明和博大精深的传统文化.·人们津津乐道的除了诗曲歌赋、书法字画等流传万世的艺术作品,还有春节团圆、清明上坟及中秋赏月等承载四时八节的风俗习惯,更有中医、造纸术、火药等这些生于中国而造福世界的科学技术.     

网络调查的误差及其处理

由于网络调查本身还有许多不完善的地方,所以调查结果受非抽样误差的影响很大.随着中国网络的普及,网络调查的非抽样误差有减少的趋势.可通过正确界定网络调查的适用范围、更好地与抽样技术相结合、科学设计调查方案、加强网络调查的安全、对估计的结果进行校正等途径来降低网络调查的误差,提高其可信度.     

定期地让自己清零

人活到了而立之年、活到了三四十岁之后，头脑中一定会有各种世俗的看法、固有的观念，有各种各样的污染。正是这种污染使我们的生命不再年轻，让我们丧失了许多的创造力和生命的生机。人们开始担心失去已有的名誉、地位和各种关系的资源，要放弃这些东西，让自己回到最原始的状态，变成了一件很可怕的事情。     

南方丝绸之路——西南商业第一街春熙路百年兴衰演义

春熙路的草创 一座城市的发达总与一条重要的街道兴衰有关,世界上所有的商埠名都都有一条显名的街道.譬如巴黎有香榭丽舍,纽约有华尔街,银座与东京齐名,说到上海,无人不知南京路和淮海路,北京则有王府井.至于香港有铜锣湾,武汉有江汉路,重庆有解放碑,广州有北京路,南京有湖南路,哈尔滨有中央大街.每一座大城总有一条大街彰显着她的城市繁荣和城市气质.     

哲理箴言

酬劳与价值·真正的乐观:知道有困难,却相信它终能克服;看到消极的一面,却努力寻找积极的一面;事情向最坏的方向发展,却期待最好的结果;有足够的理由抱怨,却选择微笑面对。·你所获得的不是一小时工作的酬劳,而是利用一小时的价值。·没有一种营养品像幸福,它是长     

新疆维吾尔自治区加快科技馆博物馆体育馆建设

充满神秘的地壳探秘、千奇百怪的生物万象、令人神往的智慧之光、各式各样的航模、多动可爱的机器人……对于昌吉回族自治州的孩子们来说，能在家门口看到或参与这些精彩科普活动已经不是遥远的梦了。8月30日，昌吉回族自治州科技局负责人告诉记者，一座崭新的现代化的科技馆今年底将在昌吉市建成。     

从顾客满意到顾客成功——关系营销理论的应用

一、从传统销售到关系营销 许多销售人员都认为销售就是买卖双方进行的没有硝烟的决战,销售人员运用他们非凡的能力与毅力最终达到让顾客接受自己的既定目标的目的。其结果导致大多数的顾客在面对销售人员时往往采取一种“自我保护”的策略。使许多顾客潜意识中牢固的形成了“无商不奸”的思维定势。而关系营销从根本上否定销售人员的这种作战意识。从购买者的心理角度出发,一旦人们意识到某种存在并且不断强烈的需求,就会设法去满足它。关系营销赋予销售人员的基本任务是积极鼓励并仔细听取顾客表述自己已经存在的需求。销售人员所要做的工作并非提供“正确的答案”,而是寻找“正确的问题”,即顾客的真正需要。成功的销售在于帮助顾客去发现产品的性能和利益,人们接受的是“自己愿意购买”的产品而不是“被出售”的产品。     

"数字过敏"面面观

数字过敏,就是在分析、使用统计数据的过程中,缺乏科学的态度,没有进行具体的分析,而是以实用主义的态度对待统计数据,将其直接等同于自己的"政绩图",喜"增"恶"减",图"增"避"减",甚至采取不科学、不合法的手段对统计数据或统计工作进行干预的行为.     

发展内蒙古特色餐饮业对策研究

随着经济社会的持续稳定快速发展,基础设施的不断完善,旅游业的快速迈进,作为消费前沿风向标的内蒙古餐饮业得到快速发展,而在餐饮业市场大放异彩的特色餐饮业规模迅速扩大,从业人员不断增加,多层次、多主体、多元化的具有地方和民族特色的餐饮在促进消费、吸收就业、带动相关产业发展等方面发挥着积极的作用.     

Comparison of methods of estimation of parameters of the weibull distribution

The generalised least squares, maximum likelihood, Bain-Antle 1 and 2, and two mixed methods of estimating the parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution are compared. The comparison is made using (a) the observed relative efficiency of parameter estimates and (b) themean squared relative error in estimated quantiles, to summarize the results of 1000 simulated samples of sizes 10 and 25. The results are that: generalised least squares is the best method of estimating the shape parameter ß the best method of estimating the scale parameter a depends onthe size of ß for quantile estimation maximum likelihood is best Bain-Antle 2 is uniformly the worst of the methods.     

Nonparametric estimation of the number of components of a superposition of renewal processes

Suppose all events occurring in an unknown number (ν)$(\nu )$ of iid renewal processes, with a common renewal distribution F  , are observed for a fixed time τ$\tau$, where both ν$\nu$ and F   are unknown. The individual processes are not known a priori, but for each event, the process that generated it is identified. For example, in software reliability application, the errors (or bugs) in a piece of software are not known a priori, but whenever the software fails, the error causing the failure is identified. We present a nonparametric method for estimating ν$\nu$ and investigate its properties. Our results show that the proposed estimator performs well in terms of bias and asymptotic normality, while the MLE of ν$\nu$ derived assuming that the common renewal distribution is exponential may be seriously biased if that assumption does not hold.     

Table of percentage points of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from exponential distributions

A form of the distribution function of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from an exponential distribution is given. From the distribution, tables of percentage points of the statistic for α = .05, .95, and n = 3(1)50, and for censoring up to five observations are presented. Use of the tables is made to find critical values of the most powerful scale and location invariant test of exponentiality against uniformity, and also to find critical values for a test of outliers in an exponential population.     

Rate of consistency of one sample tests of location

Let X₁,…,X_n be a sample from a population with continuous distribution function F(x?θ) such that F(x)+F(-x)=1 and 0<F(x)<1, x?R¹. It is shown that the power- function of a monotone test of H: θ=θ₀ against K: θ>θ₀ cannot tend to 1 as θ?θ₀ → ∞ more than n times faster than the tails of F tend to 0. Some standard as well as robust tests are considered with respect to this rate of convergence.     

Comparison of dispersions of mixtures of ordered distributions

In the paper we consider mixtures of unknown stochastically ordered distribution functions according to known mixing distribution functions. We provide optimal lower and upper bounds on ratios of general dispersion measures of such mixtures. The bounds do not depend on the particular form of dispersion measure. We present applications of the results in reliability theory, insurance mathematics, Bayesian statistics, and regression analysis.     

Minutes of Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies

The general approach to generating random variates through transformations with multiple roots is discussed. Multinomial probabilities are determined for the selection of the different roots. An application of the general result yields a new and simple technique for the generation of variates from the inverse Gaussian distribution.     

Estimate of variance of u-statistics

Let g(x₁,… , x_k) be a symmetric function with k arguments. Let U be a U-statistic based on a random sample of size n with kernel function g . In this paper, the problem of estimating var(U) is considered. Several estimators are compared by computer simulations and we conclude that two estimators, one is constructed as a U-statistic and the other is the bootstrap estimator, give good estimates for many U-statistics.     

Estimation of an indicator of the representativeness of survey response

Nonresponse is a major source of estimation error in sample surveys. The response rate is widely used to measure survey quality associated with nonresponse, but is inadequate as an indicator because of its limited relation with nonresponse bias. Schouten et al. (2009) proposed an alternative indicator, which they refer to as an indicator of representativeness or R-indicator. This indicator measures the variability of the probabilities of response for units in the population. This paper develops methods for the estimation of this R-indicator assuming that values of a set of auxiliary variables are observed for both respondents and nonrespondents. We propose bias adjustments to the point estimator proposed by Schouten et al. (2009) and demonstrate the effectiveness of this adjustment in a simulation study where it is shown that the method is valid, especially for smaller sample sizes. We also propose linearization variance estimators which avoid the need for computer-intensive replication methods and show good coverage in the simulation study even when models are not fully specified. The use of the proposed procedures is also illustrated in an application to two business surveys at Statistics Netherlands.     

SNA关于机构部门分类的修订与中国机构部门的调整研究

 本文对2008SNA关于机构部门分类的修订进行了梳理。对比了2008SNA和1993SNA在机构部门与机构单位内容上的主要区别,分析了中国国民经济核算体系关于机构部门分类所存在的问题,提出了机构部门相关核算方法的调整建议。