政府生产性补贴是否促进了中国企业出口?——基于制造业企业面板数据的微观计量分析

为分析生产性补贴是否对中国企业出口行为具有正向促进作用,本文选取2003~2007年中国制造业企业58649个样本企业的微观面板数据,首先采用Logit模型、FractionalLogit模型初步分析生产性补贴与企业出口行为之间的相关关系。然后,基于二者之间的相关分析结果,本文进一步使用"倾向指数匹配方法"(PSM)分析生产性补贴与企业出口行为之间的因果关系。研究发现:生产性补贴与企业出口行为之间不仅存在显著的正相关关系,而且还存在着显著的单向因果关系,即生产性补贴既是促使潜在出口企业做出出口决策、也是促使在位出口企业提升出口密集度的原因,总体而言,生产性补贴确实对中国制造业企业的出口行为产生了正向促进作用。最后,本文提出了以促进企业出口为目标的政府补贴政策实施建议。     

The Relationship Between Diversification and Performance in Export Intermediary Firms

The study examines the impact of product, functional and geographical diversification on the sales, exports and profitability of export intermediaries (EIs). It is based on a mailed survey of a sample of 135 British EIs. The results indicated that product and unrelated functional diversification are important to an EI's export stability. EIs that tend to carry undifferentiated products also exhibit more stable export sales. Although geographical diversification itself was not found to affect performance, focus on the economically developed countries seems to be critical for an EI's stability and growth of sales and exports.     

Market Entry Costs,Producer Heterogeneity,and Export Dynamics

As the exchange rate, foreign demand, and production costs evolve, domestic producers are continually faced with two choices: whether to be an exporter and, if so, how much to export. We develop a dynamic structural model of export supply that characterizes these two decisions. The model embodies plant‐level heterogeneity in export profits, uncertainty about the determinants of future profits, and market entry costs for new exporters. Using a Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain estimator, we fit this model to plant‐level panel data on three Colombian manufacturing industries. We obtain profit function and sunk entry cost coefficients, and use them to simulate export responses to shifts in the exchange‐rate process and several types of export subsidies. In each case, the aggregate export response depends on entry costs, expectations about the exchange rate process, prior exporting experience, and producer heterogeneity. Export revenue subsidies are far more effective at stimulating exports than policies that subsidize entry costs.     

Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin: II. Implications of Human Epidemiology Data

A review of epidemiology literature revealed that only studies conducted in Africa and Asia included data adequate to permit quantitative assessment of the dose-response relationship between aflatoxin exposure levels and liver cancer rates. Although these studies were judged adequate, their direct use to predict risks in U.S. populations may be questioned since hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections are far more common in the studied areas than in the U.S. Recent research indicates that, if aflatoxin contributes to the development of liver cancer, it almost always does so in the presence of HBV infection. The African/Asian data do not permit us to estimate the potency of aflatoxin in the absence of HBV. Recognizing this, these data can only be used to establish upper limits for the predicted excess lifetime risk for liver cancer in the U.S. When used in conjunction with aflatoxin exposure estimates for the Southeast U.S., these data predict a liver cancer rate, due to aflatoxin alone, far above that actually observed due to all causes; this provides an indication of the conservatism of this approach. Data from the Southeast U.S. may be used to estimate an excess lifetime risk for liver cancer of 2.17 x 10(-6) x (aflatoxin intake, ng/kg/day).     

创新数量、创新质量与高技术产业出口

中国已经成为创新大国，拥有较大规模的创新数量，但还不是创新强国，创新质量水平较低。在贸易保护主义日趋严重的今天，研究创新数量、创新质量与外贸出口的互动机制具有重要意义。本文基于高技术产业面板数据，采用面板数据模型、贝叶斯向量自回归模型分析了创新数量、创新质量与出口的互动关系。研究结果表明：创新数量与外贸出口之间呈现良性互动；创新质量与外贸出口互动作用较低；企业研发经费投入能有效地促进创新数量与创新质量的提升；政府研发经费投入不能有效地促进创新数量与创新质量的提升；创新数量、创新质量之间具有一定的良性互动关系。     

When Do Multinational Companies Consider Corporate Social Responsibility? A Multi‐country Study in Sub‐Saharan Africa

While African countries are becoming more and more relevant as host countries for suppliers of multinational companies little is known about corporate social responsibility (CSR) in this region. To fill this gap, the present article explores CSR considerations of foreign affiliates of multinational companies when choosing local African suppliers. The article suggests a model of three types of determinants, namely firm characteristics, exports, and intra‐trade. Analyses of a large‐scale and quite unique firm level data for more than 2,000 foreign owned firms in 19 sub‐Saharan African countries demonstrate that firms importing intermediates from their parent company abroad are more likely to implement CSR. Similarly, CSR plays a larger role for affiliates that export to developed countries. Different determinants affect environmental and social CSR activities.     

Effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on U.S. agricultural exports

This paper investigates the effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement (CUSTA) on U.S. exports of agricultural products. Econometric analysis found that CUSTA has had a large impact on many U.S. agricultural export categories. All of the consumer-oriented products (except wine and beer), five of the intermediate products, and four of the bulk products had significant CUSTA effects. It is clear that the CUSTA effects have been larger for consumer-oriented food products. There is also evidence that U.S. affiliate sales in Canada have stimulated U.S. exports of consumer-oriented products and intermediate products.     

Vehicle Emission Unit Risk Factors for Transportation Risk Assessments

When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.     

ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND THE SPREAD OF CIVIL WAR

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the relationship between local‐level ethnic composition and the spread of conflict. Cross‐country literature on conflict finds that ethnic diversity, and ethnic polarization in particular, are associated with greater incidence of conflict. However, the question remains as to where within ethnically diverse countries conflict begins and where and how it spreads. To study this question, I present a model in which local ethnic groups' decision to attack depends on three key variables: ethnic population shares, ethnic groups' weapons ratio, and the share of co‐ethnic successes in the battles that took place in the previous period. The model generates three predictions: conflict starts in ethnically homogeneous areas and only later spreads to ethnically heterogeneous areas; neighbor co‐ethnics' success increases subsequent probability of winning and may lead to attack; and greater ethnic diversity is associated with costlier conflict. I find strong support for these predictions using detailed municipal‐level data on attacks and ethnic polarization during the initial spread of the Bosnian Civil War. Moreover, my conflict model is able to predict the sequence of actual conflict outcomes with reasonably high accuracy. (JEL: D39, D74, J15, R12)     

贸易自由化视角下新丝绸之路战略经济影响评估

新丝绸之路是中国当前实施的一项重大的对外战略,而贸易畅通是中国推进该战略的一项重要举措。中国已经宣布将积极与沿线国家和地区共同商建自由贸易区,激发区域合作潜力。 为探讨贸易自由化视角下新丝绸之路战略的经济影响,采用全球贸易分析模型进行定量分析,以新丝绸之路建设的核心区(中国和中亚五国)为分析对象,从实际GDP、居民福利、进出口贸易和产业结构等方面,对中国与中亚五国开展区域经济一体化合作的效果进行评估。 研究结果表明,①新丝绸之路推进会给沿线国家带来不同的经济增长效应和福利改善效果,是一个共同繁荣和发展的战略。受益于关税减免,中国和中亚五国总GDP增长0.011%,总的福利水平改善671.065百万美元。②新丝绸之路会显著提升沿线国家的经贸合作水平,改变参与国家的产业结构和贸易结构。通过推进区域经济一体化,中国向中亚五国出口增长31.402%,中亚五国向中国出口增长14.143%。③新丝绸之路战略的推进会带来复杂的行业分布效果,中国纺织业受益较大,但农业和电子设备制造业均会遭受一定的损失。与之不同,哈萨克斯坦钢铁金属业产出增幅最高,吉尔吉斯斯坦受益最大的是农业。 从贸易畅通视角推进新丝绸之路经济带建设符合互惠互利的基本原则,中国应该全面客观地了解新丝绸之路战略的影响,针对那些受损严重的行业可能需要出台一定的保护措施。     

The ISO 9000 international quality registration: An empirical analysis of implications for business firms

The purpose of this article is to explore managerial perceptions of ISO 9000 standards. Previous surveys found general agreement that ISO 9000 registration influenced supplier selection, improved customer satisfaction, and enhanced operating efficiency. The present survey of production managers in 212 U.S. locations gathered data related to the perceived impact of registration on their businesses. Data analysis suggests strong agreement with benefits provided by improved documentation, the use of ISO 9000 as a marketing tool and greater export potential as a result of implementing these standards. Respondents did not agree that ISO 9000 provides positive benefits in product development or reduces production time. Annual sales were included to determine if there is a difference in perceived impacts based on firm size. Managers of smaller firms held a stronger belief that ISO 9000 registration results in cost reduction and increases export potential than did large firm managers. Small firms with less well developed export connections may find ISO 9000 registration useful in helping to establish a reputation that will help make the necessary connections in the export markets. The improvements in documentation of products and process may highlight areas of potential production efficiencies and possible cost reductions.     

Large Market Asymptotics for Differentiated Product Demand Estimators With Economic Models of Supply

IO economists often estimate demand for differentiated products using data sets with a small number of large markets. This paper addresses the question of consistency and asymptotic distributions of instrumental variables estimates as the number of products increases in some commonly used models of demand under conditions on economic primitives. I show that, in a Bertrand–Nash equilibrium, product characteristics lose their identifying power as price instruments in the limit in certain cases, leading to inconsistent estimates. The reason is that product characteristic instruments achieve identification through correlation with markups, and, depending on the model of demand, the supply side can constrain markups to converge to a constant quickly relative to sampling error. I find that product characteristic instruments can yield consistent estimates in many of the cases I consider, but care must be taken in modeling demand and choosing instruments. A Monte Carlo study confirms that the asymptotic results are relevant in market sizes of practical importance.     

Labour Surplus,Worker Rights and Productivity Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Asia and Latin America

How do labour market conditions, trade union rights and job security regulations affect labour productivity? This paper is the first attempt at an empirical analysis of this important question for a large sample of Asian and Latin American countries. We provide new estimates of the rates of surplus labour in 20 countries, as well as detailed tables summarizing their key regulations governing certain aspects of union activity and layoffs. Then we exploit these and other data in an econometric analysis of intercountry differentials in the growth rate of labour productivity in manufacturing during the 1980s. Among the principal results, we find that, while all else remains the same, productivity growth rates are significantly higher in countries with relatively larger labour surpluses, the effects of excess of labour on productivity growth are affected by the strength or weakness of union rights. We also find that the impacts of union rights and job security protections on productivity trends may be either positive or negative, depending on the labour market situation.     

Demand Fluctuations in the Ready‐Mix Concrete Industry

I investigate the role of demand shocks in the ready‐mix concrete industry. Using Census data on more than 15,000 plants, I estimate a model of investment and entry in oligopolistic markets. These estimates are used to simulate the effect of eliminating short‐term local demand changes. A policy of smoothing the volatility of demand has a market expansion effect: The model predicts a 39% increase in the number of plants in the industry. Since bigger markets have both more plants and larger plants, a demand‐smoothing fiscal policy would increase the share of large plants by 20%. Finally, the policy of smoothing demand reduces entry and exit by 25%, but has no effect on the rate at which firms change their size.     

Sexual Risk Compensation and HIV/STD Transmission: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Considerations

This study was conducted to answer the question, “Are sexual risk behaviors subject to compensation?” For example, do people who increase their use of condoms compensate for this reduction in human immunodeficiency virus and sexually transmitted disease (HIV/STD) risk by engaging in more overall acts of intercourse or by having sex with more partners than before? Utilizing the HIV prevention literature, studies in which participants demonstrated sexual risk compensation were identified. A simple HIV/STD transmission model was applied to these data to determine whether compensation produced a net increase in HIV/STD risk, despite positive changes in one or more aspects of sexual behavior. Although a number of studies were found in which there were simultaneous increases in condom use and the overall number of acts of intercourse, in none of these instances was there an overall increase in HIV/STD risk. Moreover, none of these studies reported concomitant increases in the number of sex partners. Extensive modeling exercises also were conducted to determine the theoretical conditions under which compensation would produce a net increase in risk. The results of the modeling exercise indicated that relatively small increases in overall sexual activity could be sufficient to offset risk‐reduction gains due to increased condom use in populations in which baseline condom use is very low. In sum, although sexual risk compensation occurs, no empirical evidence was found that this compensation is sufficient to offset reductions in risk due to greater condom use, despite the theoretical plausibility of this scenario.     

天然气基础设施及储备影响下的进出口策略

基于天然气进口国实施天然气基础设施建设,出口国进行天然气储备的框架下,本文构建了两国关于天然气进出口的动态模型,并运用最优控制理论,求得了进口国的天然气销售价格、天然气基础设施投入以及出口国的天然气开采量等最优决策路径。结果表明,进口国的各最优决策路径均呈单调性变化收敛至最优稳态;当初始天然气基础设施存量与初始天然气储量均面临不足(过剩)时,出口国的最优决策路径在收敛至最优稳态的过程中可能不再呈单调性变化;进出口两国各决策的最优稳态水平均随天然气需求基础设施弹性的增加而增加;除最优稳态天然气销售价格随天然气出口价格上升而上升以外,其它决策的最优稳态水平均随其上升而下降;出口国最优稳态效用、进出口两国联合最优稳态效用均与天然气最优稳态出口价格呈倒"U"型关系,且前者达到最大值时的天然气出口价格高于后者。     

The Impact of Complementary Agglomeration and Multi‐unit Systems on New Product Introduction

This study explores the relationship between organizational agglomeration and new product introduction. It proposes that product‐complementary agglomeration increases the likelihood of new product introduction, but that the effect on new product introduction is non‐linear. In addition, the influence of agglomeration on new product introduction is contingent on organizational form (i.e. multi‐unit form or independent form). Using longitudinal data for the hospital industry in Taiwan from 1997 to 2002, we found that the relationship between product‐complementary agglomeration and new product introduction is an upward trending hooked curve. As the degree of complementary agglomeration increases, the likelihood of introducing new products also increases, but the rate of increase diminishes with the degree of complementary agglomeration. In addition, we also found that the positive effect of product‐complementary agglomeration on new product introduction is stronger for independent firms than for multi‐unit firms.     

The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper proposes that idiosyncratic firm‐level shocks can explain an important part of aggregate movements and provide a microfoundation for aggregate shocks. Existing research has focused on using aggregate shocks to explain business cycles, arguing that individual firm shocks average out in the aggregate. I show that this argument breaks down if the distribution of firm sizes is fat‐tailed, as documented empirically. The idiosyncratic movements of the largest 100 firms in the United States appear to explain about one‐third of variations in output growth. This “granular” hypothesis suggests new directions for macroeconomic research, in particular that macroeconomic questions can be clarified by looking at the behavior of large firms. This paper's ideas and analytical results may also be useful for thinking about the fluctuations of other economic aggregates, such as exports or the trade balance.     

中美贸易摩擦对中国短期综合影响:基于投入占用产出局部闭模型的研究

本文利用投入占用产出技术构建投资和消费局部内生化的投入占用产出局部闭模型。基于新模型，文章研究了中美贸易摩擦的两个情境，美国单方面对中国的500亿美元商品和2000亿美元商品加征25%进口关税，对中国带来的短期综合影响。测算结果表明，两种情境下中国对美商品出口额将分别下降4.27%和16.03%，中国的出口增加值分别损失962.85亿元和3829.85亿元，出口拉动的国内非农就业分别减少78.62万人和331.05万人。以先进设备、信息通信技术、计算机等为代表的新兴ICT产业受直接影响较大，与此关联度较高的上下游产业也将受到明显冲击。在中美贸易摩擦频繁的背景下，中国可能将面临通货紧缩和相关行业就业人数减少的风险。面对贸易摩擦困局，中国需积极升级国内消费和优化投资结构。     

清洁发展机制(CDM)对中国企业经营绩效影响的实证检验

CDM项目早期在国内的迅速发展主要依赖政策引导和扶持，但企业本身参与项目的主动性不高。因此，随着《京都议定书》到期，政策引导力减弱，CDM项目的参与度迅速回落。实际上，CDM项目的意义并不仅局限于环境绩效和减排额收入，其有相当一部分附加商业价值被忽略，比如CDM项目对发展企业出口业务和节约生产成本的潜在利好。综上所述，本文旨在通过揭示CDM项目的真实商业价值重塑企业和政府对CDM的认知，调动企业开发项目的积极性。实证结果显示，参与CDM项目对于企业出口比例有显著提升作用，但CDM项目对生产成本率的影响存在明显的行业分化，对于集中于主流项目、平均绩效指标（盈利水平、流动性、负债水平）良好的行业（如电力、水泥、环保等），CDM项目能够显著降低生产成本率，其余行业（包括钢铁、煤炭、造纸等）则无法受益。因此，本文建议有意图开拓海外市场的企业可以考虑借力CDM项目，而希望通过开发CDM项目降低生产成本率的企业则需要结合项目类型和自身实力谨慎决策。同时，政府部门应该引导不同类型项目平衡发展，并适时对亟待绿色转型的企业予以补贴。