Risk Uncertainty and Supply Chain Decisions: A Real Options Perspective

Supply chain risk uncertainty can create severe repercussions, thus it is not surprising that research interest in supply chain risk has been growing. While extant inquiry is informative, there is a lack of investigations that center on supply chain investment decisions when facing high levels of risk uncertainty. Given the potential dollar value involved in these decisions, an understanding of how these supply chain decisions are made is of significant theoretical and practical importance. Real options theory, with its focus on decision making under conditions of uncertainty, is an appealing theoretical lens for this endeavor. In essence, real options theory asserts that managerial decisions center on creating and then exercising or not exercising certain opportunities. To date, theorizing about and investigations of real options have used firms as their focus. Not yet examined are real options within supply chains that cross firm boundaries and drive much of the competitive activity in the modern economy. Accordingly, we extend real options theory to the supply chain context by examining how different types of options are approached relative to supply chain project investments. Specifically, we theorize how the options will be related to perceived value under conditions of high supply chain risk uncertainty. Overall, our investigation builds knowledge by extending real options theory to the supply chain context and by providing evidence suggesting some options operate differently in supply chains than they do in firms.     

The Decision of the Supply Chain Executive to Support or Impede Supply Chain Integration: A Multidisciplinary Behavioral Agency Perspective*

Applying the behavioral agency model developed by Wiseman and Gomez‐Mejia (1998) , this article analyzes human resource factors that induce supply chain executives (SCEs) to make decisions that foster or hinder supply chain integration. We examine two internal sources (compensation and employment risk) and one external source (environmental volatility) of risk bearing that can make SCEs more reluctant to make the decision to promote supply chain integration. We argue and empirically confirm the notion that an employment and compensation system that increases SCE risk bearing reduces the SCE's willingness to make risky decisions and thus discourages supply chain integration. We also reveal that this negative relationship becomes stronger under conditions of high environmental volatility. In addressing the “so what?” question, we found empirical support for the hypothesis that supply chain integration positively influences operational performance. Even though this decision has a positive value for the firm, we showed that SCEs discourage supply chain integration when they face higher risk bearing. Hypotheses are tested using a combination of primary survey data and archival measures in a sample of 133 Spanish firms.     

Managing Slow‐Moving Perishables in the Grocery Industry

We address the value of information and value of centralized control in the context of a two‐echelon, serial supply chain with one retailer and one supplier that provide a single perishable product to consumers. Our analysis is relevant for managing slow‐moving perishable products with fixed lot sizes and expiration dates of a week or less. We evaluate two supply chain structures. In the first structure, referred to as decentralized information sharing, the retailer shares its demand, inventory, and ordering policy with the supplier, yet both facilities make their own profit‐maximizing replenishment decisions. In the second structure, centralized control, incentives are aligned and the replenishment decisions are coordinated. The latter supply chain structure corresponds to the industry practices of company‐owned stores or vendor‐managed inventory. We measure the value of information and value of centralized control as the marginal improvement in expected profits that a supply chain achieves relative to the case when no information is shared and decision making is decentralized. Key assumptions of our model include stochastic demand, lost sales, and fixed order quantities. We establish the importance of information sharing and centralized control in the supply chain and identify conditions under which benefits are realized. As opposed to previous work on the value of information, the major benefit in our setting is driven by the supplier's ability to provide the retailer with fresher product. By isolating the benefit by firm, we show that sharing information is not always Pareto‐improving for both supply chain partners in the decentralized setting.     

Supply Chain Management of Fresh Products with Producer Transportation*

This article considers a class of fresh‐product supply chains in which products need to be transported by the upstream producer from a production base to a distant retail market. Due to high perishablility a portion of the products being shipped may decay during transportation, and therefore, become unsaleable. We consider a supply chain consisting of a single producer and a single distributor, and investigate two commonly adopted business models: (i) In the “pull” model, the distributor places an order, then the producer determines the shipping quantity, taking into account potential product decay during transportation, and transports the products to the destination market of the distributor; (ii) In the “push” model, the producer ships a batch of products to a distant wholesale market, and then the distributor purchases and resells to end customers. By considering a price‐sensitive end‐customer demand, we investigate the optimal decisions for supply chain members, including order quantity, shipping quantity, and retail price. Our research shows that both the producer and distributor (and thus the supply chain) will perform better if the pull model is adopted. To improve the supply chain performance, we propose a fixed inventory‐plus factor (FIPF) strategy, in which the producer announces a pre‐determined inventory‐plus factor and the distributor compensates the producer for any surplus inventory that would otherwise be wasted. We show that this strategy is a Pareto improvement over the pull and push models for both parties. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted, which reveal some interesting managerial insights on the comparison between different business models.     

Flexibility or Cost Saving? Sourcing Decisions with Two Suppliers

This article studies a decentralized supply chain in which there are two suppliers and a single buyer. One supplier offers the quantity flexibility (QF) contract to the buyer, while the other offers the cheaper price. Under the QF contract, the buyer does not assume full responsibility for the forecast, yet the supplier guarantees the availability of the forecasted quantity with additional buffer inventory. On the other hand, the price‐only contract places full inventory burden on the buyer, but with a cheaper price. We study this problem from the buyer's perspective and solve for the buyer's optimal procurement and forecasting decisions. We identify areas where flexibility and cheaper price have an advantage, one over the other. Our results indicate that the buyer significantly benefits from having multiple sources of supply. We also find that, from the system's standpoint, a multisupplier system may outperform a single‐supplier supply chain under certain conditions. Interestingly, we observe that providing too much flexibility may benefit the low‐price supplier rather than benefiting the QF supplier. We discuss the managerial implications and provide directions for future research opportunities.     

On Decisions for Integration Implementation: An Examination of Complementarities Between Product‐Process Technology Integration and Supply Chain Integration

Research has shown that both product‐process technology (PPT) integration and supply chain integration efforts produce operational benefits, yet synergies between these types of integration are not well understood. This article empirically examines strategic customer integration and supplier integration as complementary activities for PPT integration, with the aim of helping manufacturing plant managers to intelligently implement mutually supportive types of integration. We set two conditions for establishing complementarity: (i) one type of strategic integration must positively influence the adoption of another and (ii) the two types of strategic integration must exhibit a synergistic fit with respect to manufacturing plant capabilities. We test these conditions using survey results representing 224 manufacturing plants. The findings show positive complementarities between PPT integration and supplier integration with respect to quality, delivery, and process flexibility. Also, positive complementarities exist between PPT integration and customer integration with respect to quality and new product flexibility. The results extend the emerging theory of strategic value chain integration and provide guidance to manufacturing managers who wish to assemble strategic integration policies.     

Knowledge Life Cycle,Knowledge Inventory,and Knowledge Acquisition Strategies*

For a knowledge‐ and skill‐centric organization, the process of knowledge management encompasses three important and closely related elements: (i) task assignments, (ii) knowledge acquisition through training, and (iii) maintaining a proper level of knowledge inventory among the existing workforce. Trade‐off on choices between profit maximization in the short run and agility and flexibility in the long term is a vexing problem in knowledge management. In this study, we examine the effects of different training strategies on short‐term operational efficiency and long‐term workforce flexibility. We address our research objective by developing a computational model for task and training assignment in a dynamic knowledge environment consisting of multiple distinct knowledge dimensions. Overall, we find that organizational slack is an important variable in determining the effectiveness of training strategies. Training strategies focused on the most recent skills are found to be the preferred option in most of the considered scenarios. Interestingly, increased efficiencies in training can actually create preference conflict between employees and the firm. Our findings indicate that firms facing longer knowledge life cycles, higher slack in workforce capacity, and better training efficiencies actually face more difficult challenges in knowledge management.     

Coordinated Logistics: Joint Replenishment with Capacitated Transportation for a Supply Chain

In this study, we consider the integrated inventory replenishment and transportation operations in a supply chain where the orders placed by the downstream retailer are dispatched by the upstream warehouse via an in‐house fleet of limited size. We first consider the single‐item single‐echelon case where the retailer operates with a quantity based replenishment policy, (r,Q), and the warehouse is an ample supplier. We model the transportation operations as a queueing system and derive the operating characteristics of the system in exact terms. We extend this basic model to a two‐echelon supply chain where the warehouse employs a base‐stock policy. The departure process of the warehouse is characterized in distribution, which is then approximated by an Erlang arrival process by matching the first two moments for the analysis of the transportation queueing system. The operating characteristics and the expected cost rate are derived. An extension of this system to multiple retailers is also discussed. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the performance and the sensitivity of the models and the value of coordinating inventory and transportation operations.     

Interorganizational System Characteristics and Supply Chain Integration: An Empirical Assessment*

Some firms have gained significant benefits by effectively deploying interorganizational systems (IOS) to tightly couple operations with their supply chain partners. In contrast, other firms with IOS deployments have struggled to achieve this level of success. So it is not clear how such systems can be configured to promote idiosyncratic interorganizational processes that integrate the supply chains and facilitate successful outcomes. To shed further light on this issue, we draw from multiple theoretical perspectives to develop a comprehensive and unique conceptualization of IOS characteristics that goes beyond the limited treatment it has received in extant literature. Furthermore, we empirically examine the IOS configuration choices made by firms with different supply chain integration (SCI) profiles. Our results support the notion that successful firms sequence the configuration of IOS characteristics toward effectively developing and supporting their supply chain process capabilities. In particular, we found that firms at the lower end of SCI configure IOS features to support supplier evaluation and automatic alerts. As organizations move to the upper end of the SCI spectrum, greater attention is paid to features associated with systems integration, planning, and forecasting. Recommendations to managers and academics stemming from our study are provided, along with avenues for future research.     

Supply Chain Strategy,Product Characteristics,and Performance Impact: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturers*

Supply chain management has become one of the most popular approaches to enhance the global competitiveness of business corporations today. Firms must have clear strategic thinking in order to effectively organize such complicated activities, resources, communications, and processes. An emerging body of literature offers a framework that identifies three kinds of supply chain strategies: lean strategy, agile strategy, and lean/agile strategy based on in‐depth case studies. Extant research also suggests that supply chain strategies must be matched with product characteristics in order for firms to achieve better performance. This article investigates supply chain strategies and empirically tests the supply chain strategy model that posits lean, agile, and lean/agile approaches using data collected from 604 manufacturing firms in China. Cluster analyses of the data indicate that Chinese firms are adopting a variation of lean, agile, and lean/agile supply chain strategies identified in the western literature. However, the data reveal that some firms have a traditional strategy that does not emphasize either lean or agile principles. These firms perform worse than firms that have a strategy focused on lean, agile, or lean/agile supply chain. The strategies are examined with respect to product characteristics and financial and operational performance. The article makes significant contributions to the supply chain management literature by examining the supply chain strategies used by Chinese firms. In addition, this work empirically tests the applicability of supply chain strategy models that have not been rigorously tested empirically or in the fast‐growing Chinese economy.     

Supply Networks as a Complex Adaptive System: Toward Simulation‐Based Theory Building on Evolutionary Decision Making

In this article, we examine how the firms embedded in supply networks engage in decision making over time. The supply networks as a complex adaptive system are simulated using cellular automata (CA) through a dynamic evolution of cooperation (i.e., “voice” decision) and defection (i.e., “exit” decision) among supply network agents (i.e., firms). Simple local rules of interaction among firms generate complex patterns of cooperation and defection decisions in the supply network. The incentive schemes underlying decision making are derived through different configurations of the payoff‐matrix based on the game theory argument. The prisoner's dilemma game allows capturing the localized decision‐making process by rational agents, and the CA model allows the self‐organizing outcome to emerge. By observing the evolution of decision making by cooperating and defecting agents, we offer testable propositions regarding relationship development and distributed nature of governance mechanisms for managing supply networks.     

IMPACT OF POS DATA SHARING ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

We examine the impact of point of sale (POS) data sharing on ordering decisions in a multi‐echelon supply chain. In particular, we focus on how exposure to POS data may help reduce the “bullwhip effect,” the tendency of orders to increase in variability as one moves up a supply chain. Theoretical studies have shown that exposure to POS data can lead to a reduction in the bullwhip effect when suppliers have no prior knowledge of the demand distribution. The benefit of sharing POS data in stable industries, where the demand distribution is commonly known, is less clear. We study this phenomenon from a behavioral perspective in the context of a simple, serial, supply chain subject to information lags and stochastic demand. We find, using a controlled simulation experiment, that sharing POS information does help reduce some components of the bullwhip effect in a stable demand setting, namely the order oscillation of upstream members. We offer one possible explanation for this improvement by examining the relationship between order decisions and demand line information.     

Do Shareholders Really Prefer Their Executives to Maximize the Equity Value? A Newsvendor Case*

In this article, we study how the operational decisions of a firm manager depend on her own incentives, the capital structure, and financial decisions in the context of the newsvendor framework. We establish a relationship between the firm’s cost of raising funds and the riskiness of the inventory decisions of the manager. We consider four types of managers, namely, profit, equity, firm value, and profit‐equity maximizers, and initially assume that they may raise funds to increase the inventory level only by issuing debt. We show that the shareholders are indifferent between the different types of managers when the coefficient of variation (CV) of demand is low. However, this is not the case when the CV of demand is high. Based on the demand and the firm’s specific characteristics such as profitability, leverage, and bankruptcy costs, the shareholders might be better off with the manager whose compensation package is tied to the firm value as opposed to the equity value. We, then, extend our model by allowing the manager to raise the required funds by issuing both debt and equity. For this case we focus on the equity and firm value maximizer managers and show that our earlier results (for the debt only case) still hold subject to the cost of issuing equity. However the benefit of the firm value maximizer manager over the equity maximizer manager for shareholders is considerably less in this case compared to the case where the manager can only issue debt. The Board of Directors can take these factors into consideration when establishing/modifying the right incentive package for the managers. We also incorporate the notion of the asymmetric information to capture its impact on the board of directors’ decision about the managers’ incentive package.     

On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting

We analyse a three echelon supply chain model. First-order autoregressive end consumer demand is assumed. We obtain exact analytical expressions for bullwhip and net inventory variance at each echelon in the supply chain. All of the three supply chain participants employ the order-up-to policy with the minimum mean square error forecasting scheme. After demonstrating that the character of the stochastic ordering process observed at each level of the supply chain is mathematically tractable, we show that the upper stream participants have complete information of the market demand process. Then we quantify the bullwhip produced by the system, together with the amplification ratios of the variance of the net inventory levels. Our analysis reveals that the level of the supply chain has no impact upon the bullwhip effect, rather bullwhip is determined by the accumulated lead-time from the customer and the local replenishment lead-time. We also find that the conditional variance of the forecast error over the lead-time is identical to the variance of the net inventory levels and that the net inventory variance is dominated by the local replenishment lead-time.     

Marriage,Labor Supply,and Home Production

We develop a search model of marriage where men and women draw utility from private consumption and leisure, and from a non‐market good that is produced in the home using time resources. We condition individual decisions on wages, education, and an index of family attitudes. A match‐specific, stochastic bliss shock induces variation in matching given wages, education, and family values, and triggers renegotiation and divorce. Using BHPS (1991–2008) data, we take as given changes in wages, education, and family values by gender, and study their impact on marriage decisions and intrahousehold resource allocation. The model allows to evaluate how much of the observed gender differences in labor supply results from wages, education, and family attitudes. We find that family attitudes are a strong determinant of comparative advantages in home production of men and women, whereas education complementarities induce assortative mating through preferences.     

A Dynamic Collaboration Capability as a Source of Competitive Advantage

The resource‐based view of the firm argues the essence of decision making is to determine how firm and supply chain resources can be configured to achieve inimitable advantage and superior performance. However, combining resources found among diverse members of a supply chain requires higher levels of coordination than exist at most companies. Manifest cross‐functional and interorganizational conflict impedes the relational advantages of collaboration. This research employs a multimethod—survey and interview—approach to evaluate collaboration's influence on operational and firm performance. Our findings show that collaboration, as a dynamic capability, mediates the conflict resulting from functional orientations, and improves performance. Specific structural enablers to enhance an organization's collaborative capability are identified and described, providing insight into how firms can exploit interfirm resources for competitive advantage.     

Managing Differentiation‐Integration Duality in Supply Chain Integration*

Existing research focuses on the positive returns to operational performance of firms’ supply chain integration (SCI) with suppliers, buyers, and customers. We draw on differentiation‐integration duality and contingency theory to suggest that manufacturing firms should seek to achieve both integration through supply chain coordination activities and differentiation through modularity‐based manufacturing practices (MBMP). Using a sample of 261 manufacturing firms, we identify an inverse U‐shaped relationship between SCI and operational performance. Furthermore, we find support for the importance of differentiation‐integration duality as a fit between high levels of SCI and high levels of MBMP results in enhanced operational performance. We find support for a contingency perspective as fit is especially critical at higher levels of environmental uncertainty. Implications for theory, practice, and further research are suggested.     

Supply Chain Conflict Due to Store Brands: The Value of Wholesale Price Commitment in a Retail Supply Chain*

Store brands are of increasing importance in retail supply chains, often causing channel conflict, as the retailer's product directly competes with the manufacturer's national brand. Extant research on the resulting channel interactions either assumes the national brand manufacturer can credibly commit to maintaining a wholesale price or that he lacks such ability. However, these two scenarios imply very different supply chain interactions, as only a national brand manufacturer with commitment ability can strategically adjust a national brand wholesale price to prevent a store brand introduction by the retailer. We specifically analyze the impact of this assumption on the manufacturer, the retailer, and the customers. We determine when long‐term contracts that provide the manufacturer with such commitment ability can improve supply chain profitability.     

Changing risk preferences in supply chain inventory decisions

The risk preferences of managers may cause their inventory ordering decisions to deviate from the optimal policy. Past studies in operations management have produced mixed results. This study examines this proposition using decision data collected from a supply chain experiment. This article finds that changing the risk preferences of managers with respect to demand changes and supplier failures is a significant behavioural factor in explaining deviations in ordering decisions. This result provides an additional behavioural cause in explaining the bullwhip effect in supply chains. It also provides insights on the challenges for reducing the bullwhip effect in supply chains.     

A SIMULATION GAME FOR TEACHING SERVICE‐ORIENTED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: DOES INFORMATION SHARING HELP MANAGERS WITH SERVICE CAPACITY DECISIONS?*

For decades, the Beer Game has taught complex principles of supply chain management in a finished good inventory supply chain. However, services typically cannot hold inventory and can only manage backlogs through capacity adjustments. We propose a simulation game designed to teach service‐oriented supply chain management principles and to test whether managers use them effectively. For example, using a sample of typical student results, we determine that student managers can effectively use end‐user demand information to reduce backlog and capacity adjustment costs. The game can also demonstrate the impact of demand variability and reduced capacity adjustment time and lead times.