What makes a stopping rule sexist?

"Parents' decisions to have children are modeled by a simple stopping rule that describes the probability of having another child as a function of the number of boys and girls already born to the parents. Because the stopping rule depends on the sex of the offspring, the rule may introduce a correlation between sex of offspring and the number of siblings the offspring has. When this is coupled with a correlation between number of siblings and well-being, a correlation between sex and well-being may emerge despite equal treatment of the two sexes within each family. The author provides sufficient conditions on a stopping rule for it to be sexist in the sense that the average well-being of one sex is higher than that of the other sex." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

On some probability distributions for forward birth interval

Parents’ decisions to have children are modeled by a simple stopping rule that describes the probability of having another child as a function of the number of boys and girls already born to the parents. Because the stopping rule depends on the sex of the offspring, the rule may introduce a correlation between sex of offspring and the number of siblings the offspring has. When this is coupled with a correlation between number of siblings and well‐being, a correlation between sex and well‐being may emerge despite equal treatment of the two sexes within each family. The author provides sufficient conditions on a stopping rule for it to be sexist in the sense that the average well‐being of one sex is higher than that of the other sex.     

Child Underreporting,Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China

Child underreporting is often neglected in studies of fertility and sex ratio imbalance in China. To improve estimates of these measures, I use intercensal comparisons to identify a rise in underreporting, which followed the increased enforcement and penalization under the birth planning system in 1991. A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0–4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census. This evidence contradicts assumptions underlying the fertility estimates of most recent studies. Yet, the analysis also suggests that China’s fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels. I then conduct a similar intercensal analysis of sex ratios of births and children, which are the world’s highest primarily because of prenatal sex selection. However, given excess underreporting of young daughters, especially pronounced just after 1990, estimated ratios are lower than reported ratios. Sex ratios in areas with a “1.5-child” policy are especially distorted because of excess daughter underreporting, as well as sex-linked stopping rules and other factors, although it is unclear whether such policies increase use of prenatal sex selection. China’s sex ratio at birth, once it is standardized by birth order, fell between 2000 and 2005 and showed a continuing excess in urban China, not rural China.     

Sex Differentials in Childhood Feeding,Health Care,and Nutritional Status in India

Strong preference for sons in South Asia is well documented, but evidence on female disadvantage in childhood feeding, health care, and nutritional status is inconclusive. This article examines sex differentials in indicators of childhood feeding, health care, and nutritional status of children under age 3 by birth order and sex composition of older living siblings. Data are from India's 1992–93 and 1998–99 National Family Health Surveys. The analysis finds three reasons for inconclusive evidence on female disadvantage in aggregate analyses. First, discrimination against girls is limited to the relatively small fraction of children of certain birth orders and sex compositions of older siblings. Second, discrimination against girls when boys are in short supply and discrimination against boys when girls are in short supply cancel each other to some extent. Third, some discrimination against girls (e.g., in exclusive breastfeeding at 6–9 months) is nutritionally beneficial to girls. Separate analyses for North and South India find that gender discrimination is as common in the South as in the North, where son preference is generally much stronger.     

Sibship size and education in South Africa: Black–White variations

Recent studies suggest that the generally observed negative sibship size effect on education is much less consistent in developing nations. Using data from a national survey in the early 1990s, this study assesses the effect of number of siblings on education in South Africa for two major population groups with distinctive cultural customs, Whites and Blacks. A negative effect exists for Whites, who have adopted a Western nuclear family system, whereas no effect is shown for Blacks, whose family life operates under extended family arrangements. Several sensitivity analyses suggest that the lack of a sibship size effect for Blacks can be partly explained by their extended family arrangements, in which the responsibilities and financial costs of raising children are shared across a wide circle of relatives. The study further addresses the longstanding debate as to whether the link between sibship size and education is contaminated by endogeneity and a confounding birth order effect. Results suggest that the sibship size effect is not an artifact of the interactive birth order effect. However, the observed negative effect for Whites tends to be exaggerated by endogenous factors – mostly likely parental quality–quantity calculation – a pattern found in several other industrialized societies that conform to western values of childbearing.     

Family size and educational attainment in England and Wales

In this paper, we use linked census data from England and Wales to investigate whether having a large number of siblings leads to lower educational attainment. There is a large literature suggesting that with large sibship size, parental resources will be diluted and this, in turn, will lead to lower educational attainment. Using twin births and the sex composition of the sibling group as instrumental variables, we find that the evidence of a family size effect on educational attainment is rather uncertain. Similar results are obtained when we use occupational attainment as the dependent variable. We also demonstrate the confounding of birth order and family size effects, and show that an adjusted birth order index proposed by Booth and Kee provides an effective solution to this estimation problem.     

The present task of family planning as suggested by the findings of the National Sample Survey of Fertility]

Results from the 1982 census show great progress has been made in the field of family planning because of close cooperation between the people and the government. Under the influence of the high birth rate in the 1950s and 1960s, a large number of youths are reaching the age for marriage each year, and they are bringing heavy pressure on the population growth. As a result of this situation, family planning work is still urgently needed. A great difference exists between cities and rural areas in family planning work. Economic conditions, cultural and educational levels, occupational characteristics, living environments, and concepts of population growth have contributed to this difference. Henceforth, special emphasis should be placed on family planning work in rural areas, so that the large scale population groth in the countryside may be brought under control. In areas of scientific management, propaganda and education, and technical measures for family planning, modern and and progressive methods should be used in order to reach the national goal of controlling population growth.     

Determining the impact of sex preferences on fertility: A consideration of parity progression ratio,dominance, and stopping rule measures

The two methods commonly used to assess the effect of sex preferences on fertility are inadequate to the task. Parity progression ratio analyses suffer from logical problems stemming from the heterogeneity of sex preferences and the riskiness of fertility decisions. While conjoint measurement-dominance procedures overcome these logical problems, they cannot yield quantitative estimates of the impact of sex preferences on fertility. A stopping rule measure which overcomes these limitations is proposed and described and its potential for determining the effect of sex predetermination methods on population is discussed.     

Older siblings and adolescent risky behavior: does parenting play a role?

Children with older siblings are more likely to engage in risky behavior than their firstborn counterparts. Although the relationship between birth order and risky behavior may reflect the influence of older siblings, it is also possible that parents supervise later-born children less than firstborns. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we examine whether the association between birth order and risky adolescent behavior is driven by differences in the level of parental supervision. Firstborns are supervised more than their later-born siblings, but this difference does not explain the relationship between having an older sibling and risky behavior.     

外来人口对中国城市地区出生性别比的影响

外来人口对中国城市地区出生性别比的影响是近年来学术界争论的焦点问题之一。利用2000年人口普查数据,通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和城市外来人口三个人口群体在出生性别比上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,考察20世纪90年代以来中国城市地区异常偏高的出生性别比是否由外来人口造成?结果表明,城市外来人口生育的性别偏好与农村本地人口和城市本地人口相比没有显著差异,都存在强烈的生男意愿。20世纪90年代以来中国生育水平迅速下降的同时,出生性别比出现了不分城乡的普遍升高和偏高,城市出生性别比偏高,既有外来人口的作用,也有本地人口的作用,外来人口并不是造成中国城市地区出生性别比偏高的唯一或主要的原因。     

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past.     

Sex ratio at birth for urban and rural areas

Previous studies show that sex ratio at birth in China's urban areas is usually higher than that of rural areas. The higher proportion of 1st births in urban areas was once taken to explain the cause for the higher sex ratio. The data of the 1982 fertility sampling survey show that the sex ratio at birth during the period from 1964 to 1981 remains higher in the urban areas (108.0) than in the rural areas (107.8). Further studies are yet needed on the differentials in sex ratios at birth between urban and rural areas and on their causes. The sex ratio in 1981 of the 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China's mainland was 108.5, somewhat higher than that of most countries in the world. 2 things account for the occurrence. 1 is that, biologically, certain particularities may exist in the sex ratio at birth of China's population, for the ratio varies with ethnic groups, nationalities and regions. The other is that, sociologically, female infants may be underreported in some areas and the phenomenon of infanticide left over by history still exists in some isolated cases. These surveys suggest that a certain specific characteristic does exist in the sex ratio at birth of China's urban areas, but they also contribute to the explanation of the higher sex ratio at birth of the total population of the country.     

南京市青年生育意愿调查分析

本文基于问卷调查资料,对南京市青年的理想子女数、性别偏好和预期生育年龄进行了定量分析,并对不同特征人群的生育意愿进行对比研究。结果表明,南京市青年多数不存在明显的生育性别偏好,少生晚生已成为其自觉自愿的选择。     

资本和劳动力沿最优增长路径在城乡之间合理流动的经济学分析——以山东省沂水县经济发展为视角

本文就我国城乡二元经济体制下,在农村劳动力相对过剩同资本严重稀缺并存的困境中,建立了一个资本与劳动力可以自由流动下的城乡一体化经济增长模型。并指出模型存在唯一最优增长路径。然后,以山东省沂水县经济发展为视角,找出其经济腾飞的原因,在此基础之上。提出几点可供借鉴的意见和建议。     

Surplus Chinese Men: Demographic Determinants of the Sex Ratio at Marriageable Ages in China

We explore the demographic factors contributing to China's unbalanced sex ratio at marriagable ages. We develop a stable population model of the sex ratio at marriagable ages, and compare a series of population projections with alternative underlying assumptions about the key demographic inputs. The stable population model demonstrates that several demographic factors interact to influence the sex ratio at marriagable ages, including the sex ratio at birth, population growth, the age gap of marriage partners, and the sex ratio of survival from birth to marriageable age. The population projections further demonstrate that policies that seek to reduce the sex ratio at birth and the age gap at marriage and, to a lesser extent, increase fertility would be most effective at alleviating the problem. But no demographic changes are likely to occur quickly enough to balance the sex ratio at marriagable ages in the near future.     

出生人口性别比失衡的地域差异分析——基于对陕西的调查

出生人口性别比失衡问题从上世纪80年代开始成为陕西人口发展中的一个实际存在的问题．地域差异是其中的一个重要表现。本文为了揭示陕西不同区域的社会环境差异对人口出生性别比失衡的影响．通过问卷抽样的方法,获取陕西关中、陕北、陕南三大区域公众的生育文化和观念差异的第一手资料。从导致出生人口性别比失衡的性别选择角度,根据社会环境-性别选择需要或动机-选择-目标,分析陕西三大地域生育文化的社会环境差异,揭示影响不同区域出生人口性别比作用机制。     

中国人口出生性别比发展趋势的分形分析

人口出生性别比是人口学的一个重要研究课题。文章采用非线性分形分析R／S法，对1950—2003年间中国人口出生性别比的发展演变特征进行实证分析。结果显示：中国人口出生性别比发展演变具有明显的分形特征；中国人口出生性别比的发展趋势存在很强的持续性，即出生性别比在未来的53年间持续偏高的概率将很大；中国人口出生性别比的发展演变可能存在一个大约27年的周期。     

Distribution of Closed Birth Intervals in a Heterogeneous Population

The probability distribution of parity-specific closed birth intervals in a heterogeneous population of women is obtained from Biswas' (1980) concept of gradually decreasing fecundabilities. The distribution of parity-specific last closed birth intervals and its moments of various orders are derived for a heterogeneous female population. Simulations are used to compare with models for a homogeneous female population with constant fecundability. The consideration of heterogeneity allows a better fit for empirical closed birth intervals.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 2000

This Mahidol Population Gazette presents Thailand's population and demographic estimates as of July 1, 2000, using the standard techniques of demographic analysis. The paper provides estimates of Thailand's total population, population by sex, population in urban and rural areas, population by region, and by age group. In addition, figures of crude birth and death are listed per 1000 population, natural growth rate, and infant mortality rate per 1000 live births, male and females' life expectancy at birth and at age 60, total fertility rate, contraceptive prevalence rate. The number of the aged population in 2020 is also presented. Presented in a bar graph is a population pyramid for Thailand in the year 2000, illustrating male and females' age and year of birth.     

From the situation of our country, the stress in population control should be put on the rural areas]

The population problem exists around the world and each country shows some special characteristics. Of the 1 billion population of China, about 800 million people belong to the rural population. This number is very large and is increasing rapidly. The average age of the Chinese rural population is comparatively young and early marriage is widespread. A traditional Chinese belief in having many children is still popular. In addition, households with more children get more grain supplies according to the existing rationing system, and the concept of birth control is not popular because of the low educational and cultural levels. As a result, the growth rate of the rural population has remained high for a long time. In order to reach the goals of economic development and control of population growth by the end of this century, priority efforts have to be made to curb the increasing rural population. Ideological education for peasants should be strengthened in order to elevate their scientific and cultural levels and improve the overall quality of the rural population. Adequate birth control measures and health care should be popularized in rural areas. Cooperation between the peasants and the government will bring down the fast growing rate of increase in the rural population.