Formulating Contextual Building Regulations for Hill Towns of India: The Case of Shimla

Hill towns of India are best known for their salubrious climate, scenic beauty, picturesque setting and healthy living environment. Hill towns have been experiencing high pressure for development for the last three decades and as a result, are facing numerous problems related to new development that is contextually inappropriate and leads to deteriorated living conditions and poor environmental quality. Most of the issues of existing development are due to contextually inappropriate building regulations, which are formulated without consideration of the geoenvironmental and developmental context of environmentally sensitive hill towns. Moreover, no scientific and systematic approach is followed for the formulation of regulations. A new approach based on various intrinsic characteristics and factors is required for formulation of building regulations in the particular context to hill towns of India. The relevant issues related to building regulations are highlighted in this paper along with the identification of a more suitable building regulatory system for the specific context of hill towns. The article suggests a new approach for the formulation of building regulations for hill towns, based on various intrinsic characteristics and different factors, which are crucial for contextual development in hill towns.     

An update on negotiated rulemaking at U.S. EPA

Negotiated rulemaking (reg-neg) is a regulatory development tool that has been used for the past fifteen years, especially in creating environmental regulations. The two most prominent issues concerning reg-neg are: (1) the saving of time in promulgating a regulation and (2) the reduction in the litigation rate after promulgation due to improved communication among the affected parties. The variety of stakeholders involved in the reg-neg process has proven to be both an asset and a detriment to decision-making. Yet, participants in the process remain convinced that the benefits exceed the costs.While the reg-neg process has not proven to be the solution it was originally expected to be, it has helped foster more positive relationships and improve communication between the various parties affected by environmental regulations. Its continued use, with more realistic expectations, should eventually result in a smoother and less confrontational regulatory development process. In this article, the author looks at some of the more recent developments of the reg-neg process within the Environmental Protection Agency.     

环境规制强度与经济增长——基于生产性资本和健康人力资本视角

近年来,环境保护与经济增长之间的"两难悖论"引起了广泛的关注,环境规制强度如何影响经济增长的问题亟待解决。本文基于代际交替模型（OLG）,将环境规制、健康人力资本及生产性资本纳入分析框架,指出环境规制通过影响健康人力资本和生产性资本投资的方式对经济增长产生正负两方面影响。当环境规制强度较低时,环境规制强度与经济增长率正相关;当环境规制强度过高时,则与经济增长率负相关,存在一个最优环境规制强度。在此基础上,利用我国1997-2015年30个省级的面板数据,通过广义矩估计进行实证研究,验证了在我国存在这种显著的"倒U型"的非线性关系。     

西部地区电能与环境协调发展系统中政府规制偏好研究

电力产业作为重要的能源部门之一,对整个国民经济发展起到巨大的基础性支撑作用,但其中的火力发电行业所造成的环境污染也给社会带来一系列问题,我国西部地区也不例外。通过将污染物减排过程对经济产生的正的外部性考虑进电能与环境发展系统,并对政府进行理性人的假设,设计电能与环境协调发展系统中的政府规制效用函数,运用计量经济学方法和微观经济学中理性人效用最大化的条件,对我国西部地区1995~2005年电能与环境协调发展系统中的政府规制偏好进行了定量分析。发现在环境法规逐渐完善的基础上,政府对于电能生产的偏好有所下降,对污染物减排的偏好逐渐上升。     

Impact of Hazardous Substances Regulations on Small Firms in Delaware and New Jersey

Regulations under the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act impose significant requirements on firms handling hazardous chemicals. The nature of the regulations would suggest that small firms, because of limited resources and other structural limitations, would experience more difficulty complying with the regulations than large firms. To understand the difficulties imposed by the regulations on small firms, we interviewed ten small firms in Delaware and New Jersey, states with existing hazardous regulations similar to those being considered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and evaluated their responses to state regulations. The impacts of the environmental regulations on the firms and on the risk levels of their businesses are discussed. Propositions for research into small firms compliance are developed. Possible means for reducing the regulatory burden on small firms while enhancing regulatory effectiveness are suggested.     

预测困难与预测发展

"凡事预则立,不预则废"这充分说明预测在决策中的重要性,但由于社会、经济系统的复杂性、不确定性,预测有时是困难的,基于此点,人们不断探索新的预测方法。神经网络预测正是近年来发展起来的一种新的预测方法,本文详细探讨了预测困难后,讨论了神经网络预测的优点与不足,并对预测发展提出了自己的思路。     

The Changing Character of Regulation: A Comparison of Europe and the United States

European and U.S. regulatory policies have changed considerably over the past 30 years. In Europe, since the mid-1980s, consumer and environmental regulation has become more politically salient and regulations have by and large become stricter. On the other hand, in the United States consumer and environmental issues have become less salient and contentious, and regulations have not become (comparatively) stricter. This apparent "flip-flop" of regulatory systems has not been analyzed in much detail to date. This perspective is an attempt to analyze some examples in which it has occurred and identifies one possible cause--namely, credibility.     

基于PSO-PLS的组合预测方法在GDP预测中的应用

GDP预测是经济预测中一个非常重要的问题,随着经济的发展,对其预测精度的要求也越来越高.在考虑样本权重的基础上,提出一种微粒群算法与部分最小二乘回归方法相结合的组合预测方法,即采用微粒群方法对样本最优权重进行求解,在所得样本权重系数的基础上,用部分最小二乘回归方法确定组合预测的权重系数.将该方法用于中国GDP预测取得了较好的结果,与其他几种传统方法相比,预测精度有一定程度的提高,说明算法的有效性和可行性.     

二重趋势性季节型电力负荷预测组合灰色神经网络模型

对于具有增长和波动二重趋势性的季节型电力负荷,首次提出了季节型负荷预测的组合优化灰色神经网络模型,研究了同时考虑两种(非线性)趋势的复杂季节型负荷预测问题,说明了此优化模型分别优于两种单一发展趋势负荷预测模型,给出了电力负荷预测的应用实例,为季节型电力负荷预测提供了一种新的、有效的方法。     

Technology assessment: Need and motivation of industry

The problems of decision making when the decision concerns large-scale technical plants have increased, largely due to the difficulties of assessing environmental factors. Technology assessment is an approach which can assist in undertaking the necessary analysis which will expose the social impact, participation of affected groups, and the evaluation of political processes for large-scale technical developments. This paper examines the obstacles to the use of Technology assessment techniques by industry and in particular concentrates upon the problems of forecasting future technological change. The paper examines the view that TA is primarily a concept of political decision making and places the concepts of politics in the broadest sense, not merely in a narrow partly political framework. Finally, the paper examines the arguments for and against quantitative evaluation and claims that TA, used properly, can provide valuable qualitative as well as quantitative insights into the impact of processes upon the political, social and economic environment. Thus, suggesting that TA is a technique of forecasting which companies that are involved in the development of major, and therefore heavy resource-consuming, projects should consider the use of this technique as part of their appraisal process.     

If we cannot forecast how can we plan?

The purpose of this article is to deal directly and explicitly with the issues and problems currently facing forecasting, planning and strategy and to discuss how the challenges of the 1980s can be realistically and effectively met. The article deals with the various environmental changes that have taken place and their implications for planners; presents empirical evidence, originating from the literature and the area of psychology concerned with human judgment processes; and outlines several new ideas which contribute towards integrating forecasting, planning and strategy and dealing with the turbulent enviroment of the future.     

Future forecasting with LEAP

A rapidly changing business environment has caused numerous firms to adopt some form of environmental assessment as part of their strategic planning process. Extrapolative techniques and trend analysis are useful when forecasting for the short-term and in comparatively stable environments. Futuristic methodologies are appropriate in turbulent environments with long-term planning requirements. The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting developed by the author, is explained in detail using examples from a recent study which used top level life insurance executives to predict the relative likelihood of occurrence of planning dates for a set of events in the socio-political environment of business.     

利益相关者、管理认知对企业环境保护战略选择的影响——基于我国上市公司的实证研究

企业对环境规制心存疑虑,担心规制增加企业成本,为此本文从战略管理层面探讨如何调动企业处理环境问题的积极性。通过对我国上市公司CEO的调研,发现管制利益相关者和次要利益相关者中的媒体是企业在环境问题上感知的主要压力;管理者越认为环境问题是商业机会以及管理者的环境意识越强,企业越有可能实行前瞻型环境战略。     

An appreciation of alternative sales forecasting models: Recent techniques based on historical data

The subject of statistical sales forecasting has recently been brought to prominence as a major area of management decision-making by the growth of a substantive literature and the establishment of several research groups to investigate the building of forecasting models. Whilst a lot of attention has been focused on the relatively newer disciplines of technological forecasting and multiple-equation model building of macro-economic systems, statistical sales forecasting methods have also been subject to considerable development and a number of radically new techniques have emerged. The authors believe that it is timely to review the current ‘state of the art’ of sales forecasting methodology. This study examines a wide range of models in use although it is not intended as a comprehensive guide.     

Safe Climate, Sound Business

Increasingly, global environmental trends such as climate change are impacting human and ecological health and the ability of business to operate. Business needs to act now to limit greenhouse gases and prepare for changes already underway. Business can play a significant part in providing solutions that are profitable for society and business. A select group of leadership companies are already demonstrating this.The best strategy for business to prepare for a future with more pressing environmental problems and stricter regulations is to be bold and proactive. Partnerships with external organizations are key to helping companies succeed at creating value through sustainable development strategies. The World Resources Institute's Safe Climate, Sound Business Initiative seeks to engage corporate partners in actively developing and implementing solutions to climate change. Through projects such as the Greenhouse Gas Protocol Initiative and the Green Power Market Development Group, companies are improving profitability even as they lead the trend towards sustainability and address climate change.     

Energy and the environment—A Delphi forecast

The author is currently an Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada. In the long range forecasting project ‘Energy and the Environment’, discussed in this article (conducted in 1970|1971 at the Pennsylvania State University), the Delphi method was employed to evaluate potential breakthroughs in energy technologies and environmental protection, management and planning innovations during the next 50 years. The priorities for energy—environmental problems, the growth of the traditional energy technologies and the probabilities of environmental ‘episodes’ in the 1970's were additional topics in the Delphi study.     

基于相似日聚类和贝叶斯神经网络的光伏发电功率预测研究

光伏发电功率的预测是光伏发电规划和运行的基础,因而受到越来越多的重视。文中提出了FCM相似日聚类与智能算法相结合的光伏阵列功率短期预测模型。该方法的思路是首先通过分析影响光伏阵列输出功率的主要因素,对历史数据与预测日气象环境进行模糊分类,并筛选出相似度高的子集作为样本,以提高预测样本的质量;然后通过神经网络映射出特征空间与光伏功率之间的复杂关系,并用贝叶斯理论对神经网络参数进行优化,提高网络的泛化能力。为检验该方法的有效性和精确性,将所提出方法与常用BP神经网络模型对同一仿真算例进行预测,预测结果表明本文提出的预测模型效果更佳。     

回收竞争下考虑CSR行为的闭环供应链定价决策及协调

研究考虑企业社会责任(CSR)行为的闭环供应链定价决策及协调问题,分别构建了单个第三方回收及两个第三方回收竞争下的闭环供应链博弈模型,分别从企业与消费者两个视角分析了CSR投入对供应链成员的定价策略及系统总收益的影响,并建立了基于“收益共享”与“回收成本共担”相结合的契约协调模型。研究表明,两个第三方回收商间的适度竞争不仅可以降低产品价格、提升废旧产品回收效率,同时对提高企业的CSR投入水平以及收益水平也起到积极的促进作用。最后,在契约参数的可行性范围内,“收益共享-成本共担”契约在使供应链总收益达到最大的同时,还成功改善了每个成员企业的收益。     

基于滚动时间窗的碳市场价格分解集成预测研究

提高碳市场价格预测准确性对于交易风险监测以及碳市场平稳发展具有重要价值。针对复杂的、非线性碳市场价格数据的短期预测误差偏大、分解过程易产生数据泄露问题，提出了基于滚动时间窗的SSA-SVR分解集成预测框架。首先，选取时间窗数据，继而借助奇异谱分析将时间窗内碳价序列分解重构为高、低频序列；然后，使用支持向量回归方法对高、低频序列分别进行预测；最后，加和集成预测结果，得到下一时刻的碳市场价格预测值。通过不断更新时间窗的数据内容，动态执行“分解-预测-集成”过程，实现碳市场价格的实时预测。研究结果表明，本文所提出框架表现出优异且稳定的预测性能，在碳市场价格预测研究中具有良好的适用性和有效性。     

Environmental scanning and forecasting in strategic planning—The state of the art

The objective of this paper is to shed some light on the practical state of the art of the environmental scanning and forecasting function in organizations. Planners were questioned through a multi-faceted survey and the findings supported the conclusion that organizations have not yet widely developed sophisticated systems and integrated their outputs into the strategic planning process.