Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles

Assessing the cyclical alignment of national business cycles with the Euro-area one is of great importance in order to guide policy decisions concerning the enlargement of the Euro area. To this end, in this paper we aim to measure the effects of external macroeconomic shocks on business cycles of Central and Eastern European Countries, not yet Euro-area members. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015 and the structural near-VAR methodology, we focus on the effects of Euro-area monetary policy and global oil price shocks on prices and output of the analyzed countries. Results show that business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by domestic shocks in the short run, while monetary policy and oil price shocks play an increasing role in the medium run. Adding domestic fiscal shocks, the overall picture does not change significantly, since fiscal policy turns out to be a minor driver of business cycle fluctuations in CEECs. In the whole, our findings do not support an Euro-area enlargement at short horizons.     

Asymmetric price rigidity and the optimal interest rate defense of the exchange rate: Some evidence for the US

This paper analyses the optimal monetary policy under incomplete exchange rate pass-through and asymmetric price rigidity. In a general equilibrium sticky price model of an open economy we find that the optimal interest rate rule is to respond to all types of shocks in an economy: real exchange rate shocks, supply shocks and demand shocks. We concentrate our analysis on the interest rate defense of the currency. We claim that the extent of the optimal response of the interest rate to exchange rate shocks depends positively on the degree of pass-through and negatively on price rigidity. Therefore, in the presence of asymmetric price rigidity, the optimal monetary policy should be non-linear, and the interest rate should be adjusted more in case of depreciation of the domestic currency than in case of its appreciation by the same magnitude due to higher downward price rigidity and lower downward pass-through, which are observed empirically. We test this prediction for the US economy and find that the US monetary policy is asymmetric indeed with higher reaction of the interest rate to depreciations of US dollar than to appreciations of the same size.     

The mechanisms of corruption in agricultural price intervention projects: Case studies from Thailand

In Thailand, agricultural price intervention has recently been under severe criticism for its ineffective management and proneness to corruption. This study focuses on the mechanisms of corruption and how such destructive activities might be minimized. Case studies of three well-known crops in Thailand, namely paddy, cassava, and shallots, were utilized as the main investigative tool. Findings suggest that government price intervention programs generate significant economic rents for various stakeholders (i.e. farmers, millers, warehouse owners, exporters, etc.). To deal with this problem, the magnitude of economic rents should be curtailed through strict quantity limits and monitoring needs to be enhance both through better human resources and integrated information technology. In the long term, such blunt intervention projects should be replaced with more sophisticated, market-oriented risk management techniques, and strict information transparency must be ensured.     

我国药价虚高现象的三重因素分析——信息不对称、委托代理与需求价格弹性

近年来,药品价格虚高已成为社会热点问题之一。看病贵、住房贵、上学贵已成为压在人们身上的新的"三座大山"。本文试从医患、药患和政府对药价的制定和监管三个方面的信息不对称,医患之间、医药之间的委托代理关系,和药品的需求价格弹性三重因素来分析我国目前药价虚高的现象,并提出相应对策。     

Globalization,financial development and economic growth: Perils on the environmental sustainability of an emerging economy

The study examines the effects of globalization, financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption on environmental sustainability in India over the period 1980–2015. The novelty of the study is the assessment of environmental sustainability in a single framework encompassing globalization, financial development, and growth effects. Findings reveal that an increased level of globalization and financial development while improving economic performance are inimical to the sustainability of the environment. In the short-run, globalization, economic growth, and increased energy consumption are contributing directly to environmental degradation, while banking sector development is impacting environmental sustainability adversely through the economic growth channel. Given the severity of the findings amidst India’s tryst with economic growth, proactive policies are warranted to encourage adaptation of greener and cleaner technologies in environmentally sustainable areas. This necessitates improved institutional quality encompassing stringent environmental standards, legal systems, property rights, corruption, financial information quality, etc., alongside the provision of incentives and subsidies to manufacturing firms undertaking technological innovations and complying with the environmental standards.     

政府经济职能定位的新视角--从发展民营经济角度调整政府经济职能

市场经济中的政府具有收入分配、稳定、资源配置三大经济职能.但在具体操作层面上,这三大职能被某些学者加进了过多的政府干预因素,甚至试图用政府干预替代而不是弥补市场机制.这种政府经济职能定位已不适应市场经济条件下民营经济发展的要求,需要进行改革.改革的重点是要从发展民营经济的角度调整政府的三大经济职能.     

若干经济问题的思考--在甘肃"资本市场建构与区域经济发展研讨会"上的发言

本文对若干经济问题的探讨 ,对资本市场建构与区城经济发展有重要参考价值。     

Uneven impacts of COVID-19 on the attendance rates of secondary school students from different socioeconomic backgrounds in Australia: A quasi-experimental analysis of administrative data

This paper contributes to the growing body of research that demonstrates uneven impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on educational outcomes of students from different socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds. We evaluate the early impacts of COVID-19 on student attendance in secondary school and show how these impacts depend on students' SES. We employ a quasi-experimental design, using difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation extended to incorporate third-order differences over time between low-SES and other students, and pre- versus during-COVID-19, leveraging robust administrative data extracted from the registers of the Tasmanian Department of Education. Using data from multiple cohorts of secondary school students in government schools in Tasmania (N = 14,135), we find that while the attendance rates were similar pre- and during-COVID-19 for high-SES students, there was a significant drop in attendance rates during COVID-19 among socioeconomically disadvantaged students, demonstrating the more pronounced impacts of COVID-19 for these students. The findings demonstrate that even “relatively short” lockdowns, as those in Tasmania in 2020 (30–40 days of home learning), can significantly affect the learning experiences of students from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds. We discuss the implications of this for future pandemic planning in educational policy and practice and how this needs to be addressed in Australia's COVID-19 recovery.     

Effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy: Empirical estimates of crowding out

This study examines the short-and intermediate-run effects of a permanent reduction in U.S. personal income taxes on interest rates, output, prices, exchange rates, and the current account, holding government spending and money growth fixed. The theoretical analysis suggests that interest rates and domestic consumption will rise but that net exports and interest-sensitive expenditures will fall. Also, the foreign currency value of the dollar will rise except possibly when output increases due to positive supply-side effects or to elimination of unemployment. These theoretical conclusions are essentially confirmed by simulations using the Federal Reserve Board's MPS quarterly econometric model and its multicountry model.     

The impact of adult and non-adult mortality on development: Two centuries evidence from a panel of industrial countries

This study examines the effects of adult and non-adult mortality on the long-run level of income in a heterogeneous dynamic and cross-sectionally dependent panel. Employing data for 20 countries between 1800 and 2010, it is found that (i) while non-adult mortality has no long-run effect on GDP per capita, reductions in adult mortality lead to statistically and economically significant increases in the long-run level of per capita income; (ii) there are no significant differences in the long-run effects of adult mortality and non-adult mortality on GDP per capita before and after the onset of the demographic transition; and (iii) mortality in middle adulthood has the greatest impact on economic development, whereas early adulthood mortality and mortality in later adulthood have little to no impact on the long-run level of per capita income.     

“It was like leaving your family”: Gentrification and the impacts of displacement on public housing tenants in inner‐Sydney

In March 2014, the minister responsible announced that all of the approximately 600 public housing tenants of Millers Point and the Sirius Building in inner Sydney are to be moved and the properties sold. Millers Point is probably the oldest public housing area in Australia. The Sirius Building was purpose built for public housing tenants in the late 1970s. The article briefly examines the gentrification process in the Millers Point area. However, the main focus, drawing on six in‐depth interviews with public housing tenants who are still residents in the area and 13 who have moved, is an examination of the impact of the government's removal announcement and the actual displacement of residents. What this article illustrates is that the place attachment of most of the interviewees was profound and the removal announcement and the actual move were devastating. Interviewees spoke of deep sadness and anxiety at the thought of leaving what they considered a unique and genuine community. Residents who had moved told of their isolation and melancholy at having lost their local social network. The research shows that the human cost of policies and not revenue should always be the central consideration.     

从技术创新透视外部网络化对企业治理结构的影响

组织协调在企业的技术创新过程中具有越来越重要的意义 ,离开组织协调 ,各种资源将无法得到有效配置。外部网络化则是企业实现外部协调的新的组织方式。从技术创新的角度看 ,外部网络化在实现组织协调中具有相应的经济学意义 ,即网络化企业之间的交易具有与传统交易成本分析不同的特征 ,这种建立在长期合作基础上的交易更加注重长期效益而降低了短期机会主义行为的可能性。这种特征进一步影响到企业治理结构的安排———基于共同利益而建立的长期合作关系逐渐使企业外部人进入到企业内部 ,从而使企业治理结构在一定程度上带有了共同治理的色彩     

旧领域与新视野:从风俗论看明清社会史研究

资本主义萌芽问题讨论带动了明清社会风俗的研究,其中尤以16世纪以后社会风气的探讨充分,引出了一系列有关明清社会史的话题,20世纪80年代以后相关的研究成果层出不穷。明清风俗以及相关问题的研究可从如下六个方面把握,即作为方法的明清风俗论,以奢侈问题为中心的明清消费研究,全球化与明清风俗论,风俗特性与明清地域研究,职业观与明清风俗论,移风易俗与明清社会变迁。未来的研究,似应在使用新概念、挖掘新史料、处理跨世纪上用力。     

Informing UK Policy Development on the Regulation of CAM Practitioners: Lessons from Hong Kong?

Public policy discussions on how to regulate acupuncture and herbal medical practitioners have reached a stalemate in the United Kingdom. After considerable activity in the first half of the current decade a wider review of professional regulation has re-opened the discussion as to the most appropriate way to regulate the practice of all health-care practitioners. In the meantime, the public continues to consult complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) practitioners in large numbers and self-medicate with herbal products and other natural remedies, posing challenges for policy-makers as to how to ensure public safety. In the NHS, providers and purchasers struggle to reconcile demands for access to CAM services with their clinical governance requirements. Hong Kong implemented new arrangements for the statutory regulation of traditional Chinese medical practitioners in the 1990s and has experienced the challenges of regulating a large established private market as well as integrating Chinese medicine further into the public health system. This experience is analysed in order to see whether the approach adopted there could address the public policy challenges faced in the UK. The article finds that, despite key cultural and historical differences related to the provision and use of CAM services, the similarities between the health-care systems and the reasons for moves to professional regulation in Hong Kong and the UK provide useful insights into what is happening in the UK in relation to service provision and the relationship with the NHS and the medical profession. These are discussed in the light of current health policy developments in the UK.     

论人权国际法保护的逻辑基础——以米尔恩“低限人权说”展开

米尔恩的人权哲学认为,人权并不是西方竭力宣扬的理想标准概念,而是最低限度道德标准所要求尊重的一些基本权利。虽然人类生活具有多样性,但最低限度的道德标准是共有的,因此是普遍意义上的人权。米尔恩＂低限人权说＂的积极意义在于,其有效协调了＂主权优于人权＂和＂人权优于主权＂的争论,为不同文明圈关于人权国际保护的对话提供理论平台。唯有各国完善人权保障法律体系,尤其是作为国家根本大法的宪法,才能承载人权国际保护重任。     

Perspectives on family caregiving of people aging with intellectual disability affected by dementia: Commentary from the International Summit on Intellectual Disability and Dementia

ABSTRACT

This article, an output of the 2016 International Summit on Intellectual Disability and Dementia, examines familial caregiving situations within the context of a support-staging model for adults with intellectual disability (ID) affected by dementia. Seven narratives offer context to this support-staging model to interpret situations experienced by caregivers. The multidimensional model has two fundamental aspects: identifying the role and nature of caregiving as either primary (direct) or secondary (supportive); and defining how caregiving is influenced by stage of dementia. We propose staging can affect caregiving via different expressions: (1) the “diagnostic phase,” (2) the “explorative phase,” (3) the “adaptive phase,” and (4) the “closure phase.” The international narratives illustrate direct and indirect caregiving with commonality being extent of caregiver involvement and attention to the needs of an adult with ID. We conclude that the model is the first to empirically formalize the variability of caregiving within families of people with ID that is distinct from other caregiving groups, and that many of these caregivers have idiosyncratic needs. A support-staging model that recognizes the changing roles and demands of carers of people with ID and dementia can be useful in constructing research, defining family-based support services, and setting public policy.     

Assessing the impact of an asset-based intervention on educational outcomes of orphaned children and adolescents: findings from a randomised experiment in Uganda

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effect of an asset-based intervention on academic performance and school transition among orphaned and vulnerable children in Uganda. Participants were randomly assigned to either the control arm or two treatment arms receiving an asset-based intervention. Participants in the treatment arms scored better grades; and had higher odds of transitioning to post-primary education relative to the control arm. Programmes which target financial insecurity may have a positive impact on the educational achievement and progression of orphaned children. There is a need to consider incorporating asset-based interventions within the development of educational policy, especially in low-income countries.     

Exploring the care effects of multiple factors on the educational achievement of children looked after at home and away from home: an investigation of two Scottish local authorities

This paper reports the findings of a research project which explored the care factors that influence the educational achievement of looked‐after children. The project was innovative because it focused on children looked after at home and away from home. A mixed‐methods strategy was adopted to analyse data from two large Scottish local authorities. The project developed, what is to date, the largest dataset which includes variables for one‐fifth of children discharged from care in Scotland over a 5‐year period. The qualitative element of the project collected in‐depth data on the care and education experiences of looked‐after children and care leavers. The overall finding was that looked‐after children perform less well academically than their counterparts in the general school population. The empirical data indicated that factors such as placement type, reason for becoming looked after and age on becoming looked after were significant in determining educational achievement. Empirical results further indicated that looked‐after children suffered from discrimination and social exclusion in many areas of their lives, including school and where they lived.