Ethnic Differences in Leaving Home: Timing and Pathways

The dynamics of leaving home for youth from migrant families in the Netherlands are examined using individual administrative data on the 1977 and 1983 birth cohorts for the period 1999–2004. A competing-risks approach is applied to distinguish leaving home for union formation, to live independently, and to share with others. Migrant youth, and particularly Turkish and Moroccan youth, leave home at a significantly younger age than Dutch youth, given the relevant background variables. This is remarkable, given the older ages at which young people in the origin countries leave the parental home. The result may be seen as evidence of how the potential effects of cultural norms are counter-affected by other factors, such as the facilities of the welfare state and the awkward position of migrant youth between two cultures. Considering the pathways out of home, the analysis largely confirms the expected pattern: Turkish and Moroccan youth leave home more often for union formation and particularly marriage, while this pathway is of minor importance for Dutch youth at early ages.     

Relative cohort size: source of a unifying theory of global fertility transition

Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for 184 countries at five‐year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this article demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across countries since 1950—not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in developing countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of males aged 15–24 relative to males aged 25–59), which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among infants, children, and young adults during the demographic transition, appears to act as the mechanism that determines when the fertility portion of the transition begins. As hypothesized by Richard Easterlin, the increasing proportion of young adults generates a downward pressure on young men's relative wages (or on the size of landhold‐ings passed on from parent to child), which in turn causes young adults to accept a tradeoff between family size and material wellbeing, setting in motion a “cascade” or “snowball” effect in which total fertility rates tumble as social norms regarding acceptable family sizes begin to change.     

Aging in the Context of Cohort Evolution and Mortality Selection

This study examines historical patterns of aging through the perspectives of cohort evolution and mortality selection, where the former emphasizes the correlation across cohorts in the age dependence of mortality rates, and the latter emphasizes cohort change in the acceleration of mortality over the life course. In the analysis of historical cohort mortality data, I find support for both perspectives. The rate of demographic aging, or the rate at which mortality accelerates past age 70, is not fixed across cohorts; rather, it is affected by the extent of mortality selection at young and late ages. This causes later cohorts to have higher rates of demographic aging than earlier cohorts. The rate of biological aging, approximating the rate of the senescence process, significantly declined between the mid- and late-nineteenth century birth cohorts and stabilized afterward. Unlike the rate of demographic aging, the rate of biological aging is not affected by mortality selection earlier in the life course but rather by cross-cohort changes in young-age mortality, which cause lower rates of biological aging in old age among later cohorts. These findings enrich theories of cohort evolution and have implications for the study of limits on the human lifespan and evolution of aging.     

Adolescent fertility: worldwide concerns

There is growing concern over the adverse health, social, economic, and demographic effects of adolescent fertility. Morbidity and mortality rates ar significantly higher for teenage mothers and their infants, and early initiation of childbearing generally means truncated education, lower future family income, and larger completed family size. Adolescent fertility rates, which largely reflect marriage patterns, range from 4/1000 in Mauritania; in sub-Saharan Africa, virtually all rates are over 100. In most countries, adolescent fertility rates are declining due to rising age at marriage, increased educational and economic opportunities for young women, changes in social customs, increased use of contraception, and access to abortion. However, even if fertility rates were to decline dramatically among adolescent women in developing countries, their sheer numbers imply that their fertility will have a major impact on world population growth in the years ahead. The number of women in the world ages 15-19 years is expected to increase from 245 million in 1985 to over 320 million in the years 2020; 82% of these women live in developing countries. As a result of more and earlier premarital sexual activity, fostered by the lengthening gap between puberty and marriage, diminished parental and social controls, and increasing peer and media pressure to be sexually active, abortion and out-of-wedlock childbearing are increasing among teenagers in many developed and rapidly urbanizing developing countries. Laws and policies regarding sex education in the schools and access to family planning services by adolescents can either inhibit or support efforts to reduce adolescent fertility. Since contraceptive use is often sporadic and ineffective among adolescents, family planning services are crucial. Such programs should aim to reduce adolescents' dependence on abortion through preventive measures and increase awareness of the benefits of delayed sexual activity. Similarly, sex education should seek to provide a basis for intelligent, informed decision making. Programs tailored to reach teenagers in schools, recreational centers, and the workplace have particular potential.     

Pop-ed programs for the out-of-school youth

39% of the Philippines youth are not in school and these youths receive no training for responsible parenthood and community life. A number of agencies try to reach these members of society, including the Bureau of Youth Welfare (BYW), the Family Planning Organization of the Philippines (FPOP), the Foundation for Youth Development in the Philippines (FYDP), the Rizal Youth Development Foundation (RYDF), the Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement (PRRM), and the Philippine Youth Welfare Coordinating Committee. BYW conducts informal group sessions including discussions among 13-24 year old members who have started self-employment projects. FPOP's youth program, SIGLA, aims at developing out-of-school youths social y and having them disseminate information to other out of school youths. This information includes family development, family planning, and population-related information, and is disseminated through activities and workshops. FYDP aims at functional literacy but also disseminates family planning information to out-of-school youths. RYDF conducts week-long seminars in topics such as birth processes, family relations, and care of babies. PRRM integrates population and family planning into its nonformal education program for out-of-school youth and adults in Nueva Ecija Province. Problems encountered in these programs are 1) suspicion of parents, and 2) feelings of inadequacy on the part of teachers. While emphasis has been on unemployed youth, efforts should be made to reach those youth who are employed.     

Dissolution of first unions in Colombia,Panama, and Peru

An analysis of marital histories from World Fertility Survey data in Colombia, Panama, and Peru indicates a high level of union dissolution: the probabilities of a first union ending by separation within twenty years of the onset of union equal .27, .40, and .18 in the three countries respectively. Dissolution probabilities are especially high among women with young ages at first union and among women residing in urban areas. For all subgroups studied, consensual unions are characterized by several times the risk of separation of legal marriages. Consensual unions are especially frequent among women in rural areas, women with little education and women who enter unions at young ages. The different prevalence of consensual unions among the different subgroups affects the associations between union stability and various correlates so that it becomes essential to investigate the factors affecting union stability for both consensual unions and legal marriages. In spite of high dissolution rates, remarriage rates in all three countries are also high, as are the percentages of time spent in a union. Hence, the potential effects of voluntary disruption of unions on fertility appear to be modest.     

储蓄投资行为及外部均衡中的人口结构效应——来自亚洲的经验证据

文章运用动态广义矩估计方法,分析亚洲人口年龄结构对储蓄率、投资率及经常账户的效应。结果发现:(1)人口结构对储蓄的效应存在,老年人口抚养比对储蓄率有显著负向影响,符合生命周期假说;(2)少儿抚养比与储蓄率无显著相关,少儿人口抚养质量与数量间存在替代效应;(3)老年人口抚养比效应对于外部均衡非常显著。老年化经济体对于经常账户逆差存在依赖,经常账户可以视为亚洲人口红利期高储蓄的国际"缓存池"和"中转地"。亚洲的经济增长、高储蓄与高顺差呈现梯队性的趋势,且与人口结构的变迁一致。这些发现可以从人口结构角度解释亚洲的高储蓄和高经常账户顺差及国际资本流动。所以,世界经济体应避免同周期的老年化,以保证经济的梯队发展和资源跨代跨国转移;同时,对于减少少儿人口来压缩社会负担的政策效果不能预期过高。     

Pakistan: FPAP projects reflect integrated approach

The Family Planning Association of Pakistan has conducted a number of projects reflecting the government's integrated approach to family planning. The youth project aims at alerting young people to the need for family planning. A full-scale feasibility scan was conducted prior to implementation of the project to determine the best way to reach people. Volunteers were recruited among college students. The project's strategy for 1979 included organization of a youth leadership national workshop and oratorical contest on the topic, "Whatever your cause, it is a lost cause without population planning." Other FPAP projects include a group of "better living projects" which aim to educate young mothers in child care and family nutrition. Projects in the organized sector include a program at the Pakistan Mint, where a motivation center and clinic are set up. Training projects concentrate on fieldworkers and traditional birth attendants (dais). A 3-day course for dais includes reorientation on septic deliveries, child care, maternity care, and record keeping. In the cities, FPAP has a network of multipurpose centers in slum areas, where adult education and income generating activities are integrated with family planning.     

Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality

This paper presents and discusses new model life tables at very low mortality, which make use of age-specific death rates from the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. These life tables fit recorded death rates in very low mortality populations better than do the existing ones at expectations of life of 77.5 and 80 years. The old tables incorporate too-high mortality at the higher ages and in infancy and they incorporate regional differences that no longer exist. The new tables "close out" the mortality schedules above age 80 more realistically. The convergence of age patterns of mortality at very high life expectancies in populations that used to conform to different families is in itself of demographic interest. Some convergence may perhaps be expected. Sullivan (1973) found that, in Taiwan, the comparison of mortality at ages 1-5 to mortality at 5-35 in the late 1950s showed higher mortality at the younger ages relative to the ensuing 30-year age interval than was found in any of the models, including the South model, which has the highest relative mortality from ages 1-5 among the 4 regional patterns. Then, in the late 1960s, the relation of mortality at 1-5 to mortality at 5-35 in Taiwan fell to a position intermediate between the West and South tables. Sullivan found in data on mortality by cause of death a large reduction in mortality from diarrhea and enteritis, no doubt as a result of environmental sanitation. Mortality from these causes is concentrated among young children, and reduction in deaths from these causes would naturally diminish the excess mortality in this age interval. The East pattern, characterized by very high mortality in infancy (but not from 1-5), may be the result of the prevalence of early weaning or avoidance of breast feeding altogether in the populations characterized by this pattern. As health conditions have improved, evidenced by the overall design of mortality, these special factors are diminished or erased. Model life tables at these very low mortality levels have different uses from most applications of model life tables at higher mortality. The use of model tables to estimate accurate schedules of mortality when the basic data are incomplete or inaccurate is less relevant in this range of mortality levels.     

Supporting transgender children: new legal, social, and medical approaches

The author, a lawyer who advocates for transgender children and youth, explores how clinical approaches to transgender children and youth are keeping pace with social and legal changes affecting these young people and with recent evidence suggesting that children are harmed by family and societal rejection as well as by attempts to change their gender identity or gender expression. The author urges providers and legal advocates to work with policymakers and the families of transgender children and youth to create a future in which these young people can reach their full potential and be embraced as fully equal, respected, and participating members of society.     

One or two parents? Half or step siblings? The effect of family structure on young children's achievement

Do children who live with both biological parents fare better than children in other types of family structures? Does the presence of step or half-siblings affect child well-being? This study examines the effect of family structure on young children's achievement addressing two sources of potential bias: (1) misclassification of blended families and (2) the omission of within-family and individual time-invariant unobserved characteristics. The results show that family structure, when defined using traditional classifications, has little effect on young children's achievement test scores. When the definition of family type is expanded, living in a blended family and living in some types of single mother families, appears to have a small, unfavorable relationship with children's achievement.     

Economic opportunities,marriage squeezes and the propensity to marry: An economic analysis of period marriage rates in England and Wales

An economic model of the decision to marry has been developed by Gary Becker and is now part of the ‘new home economics’. From it one can deduce that the propensity to marry is a function of the relative earning capacities of men and women, the relative scarcity of unmarried persons of the opposite sex and real income. The effects of changes in these variables on the annual first marriage rates of men aged 16–19, 20–24 and 25–29 and women aged 16–19 and 20–24 respectively are estimated over the post-war period. It is found that women's earning capacity relative to men's has a particularly strong negative effect on marriage rates, and that the decline in first marriage rates during the 1970s was primarily attributable to the growing economic opportunities for women. As demographic studies have suggested, the relative numbers of bachelors and spinsters of particular ages (‘marriage squeezes’) also have a significant impact, and there is evidence of substitution in the ages of marriage partners in response to such ‘squeezes’. The income elasticity of marriage is only found to be significant among men below age 25 and women below age 20, and it increases as we move down the age distribution. This suggests the ‘liquidity constraints’ influence the timing of marriage among young people. In sum, this economic model is able to account for over 90 per cent of the post-war variation in young persons' marriage rates.     

New realities of the American family

The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of American families have changed dramatically over the past few decades. While the male breadwinner/female homemaker model was long traditionally typical,l contemporary families may be openly made up of single-parents, remarried couples, unmarried couples, stepfamilies, foster families, extended or multigenerational families, or 2 families within 1 household. Families are now most likely to have 3 or fewer children, a mother employed outside of the home, and a 50% chance of parental divorce before the children are grown. These trends are common not only in America, but in most industrialized nations around the world. In fact, family trends are so fluid that the US Census Bureau and workplace policy find it difficult to keep pace. This report presents and discusses social and demographic trends behind the ever-changing face of the American family. Households and types of families are further defined, as are the living arrangements of children, young adults, and the elderly. Marriage, divorce, and remarriage trends, age at marriage rates, and interracial marriage are then discussed. Next examined are declining family size, teenage parents, contraception and abortion, unwed mothers, and technological routes to parenthood. The changing roles of family members and family economic well-being are discussed in sections preceding closing comments on the outlook for the American family.     

The Role of Institutional Placement,Family Conflict,and Homosexuality in Homelessness Pathways Among Latino LGBT Youth in New York City

ABSTRACT

Despite the overrepresentation of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) youth among the homeless, the processes leading to their homelessness are understudied. This ethnographic study sought to elucidate the role of sexual orientation in the pathway to housing instability among young gay men. Fieldwork included 18 months of participant observations in public spaces and at a homeless LGBT youth organization in New York City, as well as formal semistructured interviews with 14 Latino young men and five staff. Three distinct pathways emerged. Some youth became homeless after placement in state systems of care disrupted their social support systems, while others became homeless after extreme family conflict over sexual orientation. Nonetheless, most youths became homeless as a result of long-term processes of family disintegration in which normative adolescent development and disclosure of homosexuality exacerbated preexisting conflict. These findings suggest the need to examine the accumulation of risks before disclosure exacerbates family conflict and increases their risk of homelessness.     

Impact of educational attainments on women's fertility]

The fertility rates of Chinese women of different educational backgrounds and ages were studied. The results indicate that women with higher educational backgrounds are likely to marry later in life, and have fewer children. The converse is also true; women with little or no education marry very young and have significantly more offspring. It is noted that many of the poory educated are traditionally conservative; they strongly desire at least 1 male offspring, and generally understand the least about matters related to family planning. In terms of economics and human investment, intellectuals are less likely to want more than 1 child. 2 of the most effective ways in which fertility rates may be lowered are to reduce early fertility and to improve the educational levels of women.     

The transmission of social inequality: Examination of the linkages between family socioeconomic status in childhood and educational achievement in young adulthood

The present study examines the linkages between family socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood and educational achievement in young adulthood using data from a 25-year longitudinal study of a birth cohort of over 1000 New Zealand children. Structural equation modeling of the association between latent SES at birth and educational achievement by age 25 years showed evidence of a strong association between latent SES and later educational achievement. Much of this association was mediated via two pathways relating to child cognitive ability and family educational aspirations; family economic resources and school factors did not mediate the association. However, even when the major theoretical pathways were taken into account, a substantial component of the latent SES/educational achievement correlation remained unexplained.     

Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality

In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between changes in age-specific mortality and lifespan inequality, measured as the variance of age at death. Key to this relationship is a young–old threshold age, below and above which mortality decline respectively decreases and increases lifespan inequality. First, we show for Sweden that shifts in the threshold’s location have modified the correlation between changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality over the last two centuries. Second, we analyze the post–World War II (WWII) trajectories of lifespan inequality in a set of developed countries—Japan, Canada, and the United States—where thresholds centered on retirement age. Our method reveals how divergence in the age pattern of mortality change drives international divergence in lifespan inequality. Most strikingly, early in the 1980s, mortality increases in young U.S. males led to a continuation of high lifespan inequality in the United States; in Canada, however, the decline of inequality continued. In general, our wider international comparisons show that mortality change varied most at young working ages after WWII, particularly for males. We conclude that if mortality continues to stagnate at young ages yet declines steadily at old ages, increases in lifespan inequality will become a common feature of future demographic change.     

African-american mortality at older ages: Results of a matching study

In this paper we investigate the quality of age reporting on death certificates of elderly African-Americans. We link a sample of death certificates of persons age 65+ in 1985 to records for the same individuals in U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920 and to records of the Social Security Administration. The ages at death reported on death certificates are too young on average. Errors are greater for women than for men. Despite systematic underreporting of age at death, too many deaths are registered at ages 95+. This excess reflects an age distribution of deaths that declines steeply with age, so that the base for upward transfers into an age category is much larger than the base for transfers downward and out. When corrected ages at death are used to estimate age-specific death rates, African-American mortality rates increase substantially above age 85 and the racial “crossover” in mortality disappears. Uncertainty about white rates at ages 95+, however, prevents a decisive racial comparison at the very oldest ages.