Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method: Some properties and a linear model

The Best Worst Method (BWM) is a multi-criteria decision-making method that uses two vectors of pairwise comparisons to determine the weights of criteria. First, the best (e.g. most desirable, most important), and the worst (e.g. least desirable, least important) criteria are identified by the decision-maker, after which the best criterion is compared to the other criteria, and the other criteria to the worst criterion. A non-linear minmax model is then used to identify the weights such that the maximum absolute difference between the weight ratios and their corresponding comparisons is minimized. The minmax model may result in multiple optimal solutions. Although, in some cases, decision-makers prefer to have multiple optimal solutions, in other cases they prefer to have a unique solution. The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, we propose using interval analysis for the case of multiple optimal solutions, in which we show how the criteria can be weighed and ranked. Secondly, we propose a linear model for BWM, which is based on the same philosophy, but yields a unique solution.     

国家自然科学基金资助项目综合评价:基于Vague 集多准则决策

采用基于Vague 集的多准则决策方法,对国家自然科学基金11 类主要竞争性资助项目的实施情况进行综合评价和排序． 首先,通过问卷调研的方式,由国家自然科学基金项目评审专家采用“高”、“不高”和“不清楚”三类语义,对各类项目按照“评审公正性”、“管理规范性”、“科研创新性”和“社会影响力”四个准则进行评价; 然后,根据问卷统计结果,将语义评价转化为Vague 估计值,并利用一种新的评分函数计算各类项目在各准则下的得分; 最后,采用正态分布的OWA 算子集结各准则下的得分,得到所有项目的综合评价和排序． 本文的研究结果将为完善国家自然科学基金的资助结构与管理模式提供重要参考依据．     

国家自然科学基金资助项目综合评价:基于Vague集多准则决策

采用基于Vague集的多准则决策方法,对国家自然科学基金11类主要竞争性资助项目的实施情况进行综合评价和排序.首先,通过问卷调研的方式,由国家自然科学基金项目评审专家采用"高"、"不高"和"不清楚"三类语义,对各类项目按照"评审公正性"、"管理规范性"、"科研创新性"和"社会影响力"四个准则进行评价;然后,根据问卷统计结果,将语义评价转化为Vague估计值,并利用一种新的评分函数计算各类项目在各准则下的得分;最后,采用正态分布的OWA算子集结各准则下的得分,得到所有项目的综合评价和排序.本文的研究结果将为完善国家自然科学基金的资助结构与管理模式提供重要参考依据.     

Interval-based extensions of two outranking methods for multi-criteria ordinal classification

We present two new interval-based extensions of ELECTRE TRI-nB and ELECTRE TRI-nC, in which the preference relations are built by using the interval outranking approach. The boundaries between adjacent classes (or categories) are described by a set of limiting profiles, whose criteria could take on values which are interval numbers. Compared to INTERCLASS (a recently proposed interval-based ordinal classification method), the assignments suggested by our first extension come from enhanced preference relations between the actions and limiting boundaries and are likely to be more appropriate. In addition, it can suggest assignments from a pseudo-conjunctive logic. In our second extension, each class is characterized by a set of representative actions, again allowing interval numbers as criterion scores. The outranking relations between actions and classes are enhanced by having several representative actions in each category. Both new extensions can handle imperfect knowledge of the model parameters (weights, veto thresholds, credibility threshold), even missing criterion scores. Some fundamental properties and results are proved to guarantee the consistency of the methods, which are also illustrated with some numerical examples.     

Outsourcing: decision-making methods and criteria during design and engineering

Research to date for decision-making on outsourcing has almost exclusively focussed on strategic and operational levels. Consequently, we know relatively little about decision-making on outsourcing during design and engineering, i.e. the tactical level; that also means that the characteristics of design and engineering – incomplete and inaccurate information and progressive availability of data – are not incorporated in existing frameworks and methods at that level. To fill this gap, a first-of-its-kind framework, based on an extensive appraisal of the literature, is validated; to that purpose, a Delphi survey was undertaken gauging the opinions of two homogeneous groups of academic and industry experts. The analysis of the survey affirms the assumptions made about the role of the progressive availability of data during decision-making on outsourcing. The results from this study should not only inform further research into decision-making during design and engineering but potentially the framework might also have validity for purchasing at the tactical level and strategic decision-making on outsourcing.     

基于OWG算子的不同形式偏好信息 的群决策方法

具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策是决策分析及群决策支持系统研究的一个新课题,它对 于进一步提高群决策支持系统的实用性和灵活性方面具有重要意义. 针对这类群决策分析,提 出了一种具有效用值、序关系值、模糊互补判断矩阵、互反判断矩阵等4 种形式偏好信息的群 决策方法. 在该方法中,首先给出了将不同形式的偏好信息均转化为互反判断矩阵形式的计算 公式;然后基于OWG算子将各决策者的偏好信息集结为群的偏好并进行方案的优选;最后给 出了一个算例.     

The multiple faces of tension: dualities in decision-making

Review of Managerial Science - In making decisions about strategic and operational actions, managers commonly need to consider dualities such as long-term versus short-term, innovation versus...     

企业高级人才队伍动态稳定模型及决策研究

利用现代robust 控制理论和线性矩阵不等式方法,研究了企业高级人才队伍动态稳定决 策问题. 建立了一种在动态环境中高级优秀人才队伍线性不确定时变动态模型. 讨论了模型建 立的理论依据;给出了高级优秀人才队伍robust 稳定的判别方法和robust 稳定控制决策方法, 以及在各种具体情况下的实际意义;并通过对一个实例的具体分析,验证了所给模型与控制决 策方法的有效性.     

Fast and rigorous: Configurational determinants of strategic decision-making balance

A longstanding debate in the strategic decision-making literature has focused on whether top management teams (TMTs) can effectively balance speed and comprehensiveness when making important decisions. In our research, we build on early insights and pivot from considering whether TMTs can engage indecision-making that balances these tensions to focus instead on when certain types of TMTs are able to achieve such balance. We employ a novel configurational analytical approach and a theoretical framework built from role theory to examine the CEO-TMT interface in a new way. In so doing, we are able to identify specific CEO-TMT constellations that support decision-making that is both fast and rigorous. Using a unique primary dataset and an abductive, configurational approach grounded in fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we identify six specific leader-team configurations that each facilitate decision processes characterized by rigorous intra-team debate, meaningful reconciliation of divergent ideas, and fast decision speed (which we describe as strategic decision-making balance). The range of CEO-TMT configurations that emerge from our analyses contribute new theory and findings for the strategic decision-making and interface literatures more broadly, as well as the specific research streams on executive gender, humility, and TMT structure.     

改进随机森林的集成分类方法预测结直肠癌存活性

 癌症是人类死亡的主要原因之一,许多国家在癌症方面的支出占医疗总支出的很大比例。癌症存活性预测作为癌症预后的一项重要工作,可以辅助医生做出更精准的诊疗决策,进而降低癌症治疗成本。近年来,基于数据驱动的癌症存活性预测方法逐渐得到应用,而预测的准确性是评价预测方法性能的主要指标,因此提高癌症存活性预测方法的准确性一直是一个活跃的研究领域。        结直肠癌是一种具有高发病率和高死亡率的癌症,为了提高结直肠癌存活性预测的准确性,利用遗传算法对随机森林进行改进,提出基于GA-RF的集成分类方法。该方法通过遗传算法对随机森林中的决策树实行进化搜索,以提高集成分类准确率为目标选出决策树的满意集成。实验分别使用基于GA-RF的集成分类方法、决策树和参数优化的随机森林训练预测模型预测结直肠癌患者的存活性,利用SEER数据库的结直肠癌数据集对3种方法分别进行10折交叉验证,然后用准确性、敏感性和特异性3个指标对它们进行评价。        实验结果显示,基于GA-RF的集成分类方法的预测精度最高(88.2%),参数优化的随机森林的预测精度次之(86.4%),但集成复杂度远高于基于GA-RF的集成分类方法,决策树的预测精度最差(74.2%),而基于GA-RF的集成分类方法还表现出了最好的泛化性能。        该集成分类方法对随机森林进行了有效的改进,能以更高的运算效率和更好的准确性预测结直肠癌存活性,可以为结直肠癌的预后提供决策参考,弥补经验预测的不足,该方法的提出对节约医疗资源、降低医疗成本、提高患者满意度具有实际意义。     

Aggregation of preferences in an environmental economics context: a goal-programming approach

This paper has been devised with two different and at the same time complementary aims. First, to propose a methodology based upon goal programming that allows the aggregation of individual preferences provided by several social groups towards different criteria in a cardinal manner. The main feature of the procedure lies in the easy utility interpretation of the social consensus obtained. Second, to apply the proposed methodology to a case study on electricity planning in Spain within an environmental context, where several criteria of different nature and some social groups with different interests are involved. The social weights that have to be attached to the different criteria in a multi-objective programming model are obtained this way.     

DEA and ranking with the network-based approach: a case of R&D performance

This study enhances the network-based approach, which is a novel method to increase discrimination in data envelopment analysis. The enhancements include removing the bias caused by a scale difference among organizations and highlighting the approach's ability to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each organization. The former makes the approach applicable to both the constant returns of scale (CRS) and the variable returns of scale (VRS) models. The network-based approach applies the centrality concept developed in social network analysis to discriminate efficient decision making organizations as determined by standard data envelopment analysis (DEA). More specifically, the results of data envelopment analysis are transformed into a directed and weighted network in which each node represents a decision making organization and the link between a pair of node represents the referencing relationship between the pair. The centrality value for each efficient organization provides the base for discrimination and ranking. This network-based approach suggests aggregating DEA results of different input/output combinations such that the merits of each organization under various situations can be considered. The final ranking of this approach favors organizations that have their strengths evenly spread and tends to screen out specialized efficient organizations. As a real world example, the approach is applied to evaluate and rank the R&D (research and development) performance of Taiwan's government-supported research institutes. The cross-organizations and within-organization strengths for each efficient research institute are identified after applying the approach. A two-stage R&D evaluation model separates the R&D process into the technology development and technology diffusion stage. The resulting performance map differentiates the research institutes into four categories—Achievers, Marketers, Innovators, and Underdogs.     

Investing in CAD: a case of ad hoc decision-making

There is growing evidence to suggest that the success of new technology is linked to whether it is introduced as part of an overall corporate strategy or alternatively as an ‘ad hoc’ response to falling profits, extended lead-times and reduced productivity. Interviewing engineering managers in leading electronics and engineering companies including BICC, Ferranti, Rolls Royce, British Aerospace, Thorn EMI and others, the author found that investment in computer-aided design was not always implemented in line with corporate strategy, but instead as part of a sub-strategy, the success of which was usually constrained by the accounting methods used to justify it as well as the attitudes adopted by senior managers. In discussing these issues, the article compares British and Japanese managements' approach to new technology and questions the validity of traditional capital budgeting methods.     

The constructive aspect of political behavior in strategic decision-making: The role of diversity

While there have been extensive empirical and theoretical investigations on political behavior, most previous empirical studies have focused on political behavior as a negative force. In order to extend prior research, this study reconciles the upper echelons theory with the broaden-and-build theory and the work of the positive organizational behavior movement to investigate the antecedents and effects of constructive politics. It explores how different aspects of diversity influence constructive politics and the extent to which the latter contribute to decision performance, namely, decision success and decision pace. Data were drawn from 200 survey respondents in Dubai. The results supported not only the role of constructive politics in decision performance but also the role of demographic and competency diversity in constructive politics. The current research contributes to the exploration of constructive politics in decision-making and raises additional questions in an attempt to supply, with related research, significant missing portions of the political behavior story.     

高管决策的情绪调节机制：基于准实验现场的研究

近年来,情绪对于人类认知过程的作用正逐步受到研究者的重视,尤其是情绪对决策的影响备受关注。本文旨在对现有的国内外情绪与决策的相关理论进行梳理,基于心理认知理论和高层团队理论,构建出情绪调节对于高管团队决策的影响模型,之后采用了模拟真实的准实验方法对理论模型进行了验证。本文为未来情绪与决策的研究提供了可借鉴的研究思路和实验方法。     

Single or dual sourcing: decision-making in the presence of supply chain disruption risks

The focus of this paper is placed on evaluating the impacts of supply disruption risks on the choice between the famous single and dual sourcing methods in a two-stage supply chain with a non-stationary and price-sensitive demand. The expected profit functions of the two sourcing modes in the presence of supply chain disruption risks are first obtained, and then compared so that the critical values of the key factors affecting the final choice are identified. Finally, the sensitivity of the buyer's expected profit to various input factors is examined through numerical examples, which provide guidelines for how to use each sourcing method.     

The globalization of smaller agri-food firms: a decision-making framework tested through case research

Anecdotal evidence suggests that smaller firms are responding in various ways to market trends towards globalization. A fundamental question arises as to why some smaller firms are including global markets in their strategies and business operations while other firms with similar size and product mix are not. This paper hypothesizes necessary and sufficient conditions for a smaller agri-food firm to become actively global in perspective and practice. An hypothesized decision framework is articulated and results are reported from eight cases used to test this framework. The paper concludes that perceptions about competitive advantages and effective demand, and operative decision rules employed by the firm will determine if and when a firm can globalize its scope of operations.     

A structured framework to understand CSR decision-making: A case study of multiple rationales

The organisational justifications made for CSR-related decisions and actions are examined over time using a structured framework premised on instrumental, political, integrative and ethical as well as first and second-order rationales. Using material from semi-structured interviews and drawing on documentary sources, we find that the decision-making processes underlying CSR-related initiatives were complex and multi-layered with varied patterns of motivation and justification that was modified over time. While an instrumental rationale was always apparent, political, integrative and ethical rationales were also important in the context of first and second-order rationales. The paper provides a framework to help understand the justification of CSR initiatives in a structured way and has implications for both theory and practice.     

The lean improvement of the chemical emissions of motor vehicles based on preference ranking: A PROMETHEE uncertainty analysis

The motor vehicle has provided mobility and individual freedom for millions of people. However, vehicles embody the dilemma of contemporary industrialisation in that the environmental costs of automobility are equally large. This non-country specific study undertakes a PROMETHEE-based preference ranking of a small set of motor vehicles based on constituents of their exhaust emissions. As a model of an interested party's preference ranking of the motor vehicles, the subsequent uncertainty (sensitivity) analysis considered here, relates to what minimal (lean) changes would be necessary to a vehicle's emissions so that their preference ranking is improved. For a particular manufacturer, it can identify the necessary engineering performance modifications to be made to improve their perceived consumer based ranking. This is compounded by a further consideration of different levels of importance conferred on the criteria (vehicle emissions) and analogous analyses undertaken. The visual elucidation of the results rankings and changes to criteria values, offers a clear presentation of the findings to the interested parties.