考虑策略型消费者行为的零售商订货及忠诚计划联合决策研究

顾客忠诚计划是零售商的重要销售策略之一. 本文针对两期折扣问题中零售商的订货和积分回馈计划投入的联合决策问题,基于完全理性假设,并结合问题的实际情况,考虑了全价期单期以及全价期和折扣期两期的积分回馈计划,构建了基于这两种积分回馈计划下的策略型消费者决策模型. 分析了不同积分回馈计划对策略型消费者行为的影响,进而讨论了零售商在不同决策下的收益情况,探索了零售商订货和积分回馈计划联合决策的制定. 研究发现：(1)积分回馈计划会对策略型消费者行为产生影响,从而影响零售商的决策和收益;(2)订货和忠诚计划制定的联合决策有利于零售商提高收益;(3)对于单位成本低的商品,面向全价期的积分回馈计划的最优收益提升较大;(4)对于商品价值与实际价格差异较小的商品,积分回馈计划对最优收益的提升作用较大. 具体而言,如果商品单位成本小于等于折扣价,则面向全价期的积分回馈计划的最优收益提升较大,反之,则面向全价期和折扣期的积分回馈计划的最优收益提升较大.     

考虑策略型消费者和退货的零售商定价和订货决策研究

考虑策略型消费者对产品估值的异质性和无缺陷退货行为，应用理性预期（RE）均衡构建了两期决策模型，引入产品的耐用性参数，得到了允许（不允许）无缺陷退货两种模式下零售商的定价区间和订货策略。研究发现，产品的耐用性越弱，零售商可制定的价格越高；高类型的消费者越多，零售商定价越高；产品折扣率越低，第二阶段购买的消费者越多；零售商允许消费者无缺陷退货时，消费者退货成本越低，零售商定价越高。在两种模式下，产品定价与其耐用性程度呈负相关，当产品具备高度潮流性特征时，不允许退货更占优势；随商品耐用性程度的提升，允许退货带来的优势逐渐明显，而且退货成本越低，允许退货优势越强；随产品耐用性参数增加，允许退货缓解策略型消费者消极影响的作用愈加明显，退货成本越高，缓解越有效。本文合理刻画了策略型消费者的行为，考虑了消费者跨期决策中产品耐用性的影响，同时考虑了现实中广泛存在的消费者无缺陷退货行为与零售商的退货补贴政策，从而为零售商的定价和订货退货决策提供了理论参考。     

考虑策略型消费者的在线零售商库存信息披露及联合定价、库存决策模型

在两期销售环境下,研究了面向策略型消费者的在线零售商库存信息披露及联合定价、库存决策问题。考虑在线零售商库存信息共享和隐藏两种库存披露策略,构建了在线零售商两期销售利润模型。通过分析消费者的购买行为,讨论了在具有策略型消费者的市场中,在线零售商应如何选择库存信息披露策略,以及如何制定最优定价和库存决策。在此基础上,分析了相关参数对在线零售商决策及利润的影响。研究结果表明,在线零售商的最优定价及库存决策受消费者估值折扣系数和第二期定价策略的影响。特别地,当在线零售商选择第一期缺货时,更倾向于共享其库存水平信息;当在线零售商选择第二期缺货或者两期均不缺货时,消费者估值折扣系数存在一个阈值,当低于该阈值时,在线零售商会选择隐藏库存水平信息,当高于该阈值时,在线零售商会选择共享库存水平信息。     

考虑异质消费者的线下到线上供应链合作广告契约设计

本文针对一个拥有线上渠道的制造商和一个零售商组成的线下到线上(O2O)供应链,考虑渠道产品差异化策略下零售商为制造商线上渠道进行广告引流,刻画消费者对产品的异质性需求,分别设计对称信息和不对称信息下制造商的最优合作广告契约,通过对比两种情形中最优决策及利润的变化分析信息不对称的影响,并进一步探讨不对称信息下消费者渠道转换的麻烦成本、单位不匹配成本等重要参数对合作广告契约设计和供应链成员利润的影响。研究发现:不对称信息下,制造商可以策略性选择三种不同策略以最大化自身利润,其中不甄别零售商真实信息的混同均衡在某些条件下是制造商的最优策略;尽管信息不对称会给制造商带来利润损失,但制造商通过策略选择可缓和信息不对称的不利影响,某些条件下信息不对称并不损害供应链总体的利润;麻烦成本的变化会改变制造商不对称信息下最优合作广告契约的策略选择,某些条件下麻烦成本的增高对制造商利润反而存在正影响。最后,通过数值仿真对上述研究结果进行直观考察和说明。     

具有两阶段生产模式和需求信息更新的供应链契约研究

针对二级供应链,在基于Stackelberg博弈的批发价契约中,分析了折扣价格与零售商最优提前订购量的关系及对契约双方期望收益的影响;设计了价格折扣与回购联合的协调契约,分析了供应链系统的最优提前生产量、供应链协调条件及协调契约下制造商和零售商的期望收益变化,并在协调契约不满足制造商的个体理性约束时,提出采用不对称Nash谈判模型设计两阶段生产与订购的回购契约,在保证供应链系统整体绩效最优的条件下,使制造商和零售商利润都能得到满意增长。研究表明,三级供应链实行两阶段订购的必要条件是分销商与零售商的最优提前订购量相等,与二级供应链相比,价格折扣契约下三级供应链效率更低,但价格折扣与回购联合的契约同样能协调三级供应链,该协调契约满足零售商与分销商激励相容约束。     

Reducing Packaging Waste and Cost via Consumer Price Discounts

Low‐waste packaging may imply an inconvenience to consumers and cause firms to offer a compensating price discount. For example, Starbucks’ “Take the Mug Pledge” campaign provides a 10‐cent discount for customers who purchase coffee without a standard cup (i.e., customers provide their own cup). Understanding how such a discount drives demand and profit is the focus of this article. We consider a monopolist that can offer a reduced‐packaging option for its product at a variable cost savings. That option implies a transactional “inconvenience” cost for consumers. While that transactional cost is generally positive, our model also permits some consumers to associate convenience with reduced packaging. We derive the optimal price and discount that maximize profits. We show the optimal discount is bounded by the magnitude of the variable cost savings associated with the packaging reduction. We explore when the optimal discount is negative (a price premium), which requires a specific proportion of consumers to associate convenience with reduced packaging. We also derive conditions under which the firm should price to eliminate demand for the standard product, rather than segment the market, to leverage the variable cost savings of reduced packaging. When the variable cost savings are low (e.g., as is true for Starbucks), we show the profit curve for the segmenting policy is relatively flat for a discount up to several multiples of the cost differential. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for the reduced packaging option, with optimal discounting, to simultaneously increase profit and consumer surplus while reducing waste.     

Using Contingent Markdown with Reservation to Profit from Strategic Consumer Behavior

We examine a contingent price markdown (CM) mechanism with guaranteed reservation under which a retailer sells multiple units to forward‐looking consumers who arrive over time according to a Poisson process. During the early part of the selling season, each arriving consumer can either purchase a unit by paying the regular price or reserve a unit at the discount price. Reserved units can only be claimed later when the number of guaranteed reservations meets a pre‐specified threshold, or at the end of the selling season, whichever comes first. Immediately after the number of guaranteed reservations meets the pre‐specified threshold, the retailer will reduce its selling price to the discount price so that all subsequent arriving consumers can take immediate possession by paying the low price. We study the consumer purchasing behavior in equilibrium when the retailer adopts such a selling mechanism, and compare the performance of our mechanism against two benchmarks: fixed price (FP) and pre‐announced discount (PD). Through an extensive numerical analysis, we identify market conditions under which CM dominates both FP and PD in terms of the retailer's revenue and consumer's surplus. Finally, through a fluid approximation to the stochastic model, we simplify the computation of the equilibrium strategy and the optimal revenues, and verify that the key insights obtained from the stochastic model still hold.     

两种激励条件下三级供应链产品质量控制策略研究

本文基于四阶段Stackelberg博弈分析,研究了在三级供应链中如何进行产品质量控制策略问题。构建了由制造商、零售商与最终顾客组成的三级供应链博弈模型,制造商进行产品质量决策,即生产高质量产品或者低质量产品,零售商进行产品采购决策和零售定价决策,最终顾客根据两种产品质量水平和零售价格的差异,决定产品的购买数量;当零售商采购高质量产品时,制造商将会向其提供价格折扣策略;当零售商采购低质量产品时,制造商将会向其提供延迟付款策略。运用最优化原理,求解了制造商的产品质量水平、价格折扣、延迟付款期限和零售商的零售价格、最终顾客的购买数量,及期望收益函数。进行了算例分析,结果表明:高质量产品零售价格关于价格折扣下降幅度更大,而低质量产品零售价格关于延迟付款期限下降幅度更大;制造商提供的价格折扣越大、延迟付款期限越长,其期望收益将会减少,此时零售商的期望收益将会增加,最终顾客产品需求量将会增加;制造商的总期望收益函数将呈现"倒U"型,求解了期望收益的最大值及各契约参数的值,结果证明所提出的产品质量控制策略是可行的。     

Coordinating a Supply Chain When Facing Strategic Consumers

This article examines the impact of strategic consumers on the efficiency and coordination of a supply chain. We consider a supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a newsvendor retailer selling a seasonal product to strategic consumers, who may choose to wait for clearance sales to maximize their intertemporal utility. Under a prenegotiated supply contract, the retailer chooses retail price and ordering quantity simultaneously. After that, the strategic consumers, who may be heterogeneous in their patience levels, make purchasing decisions. We find that strategic consumer behavior can hurt the supply chain efficiency due to severe double marginalization, and that a simple buyback contract can coordinate the supply chain. Nevertheless, we show that the supply chain does become more difficult to coordinate when strategic consumers are present: the set of buyback contractual terms that coordinate the chain shrinks as consumers are more willing to wait, and the chain profit cannot be arbitrarily allocated between the firms. Contrary to popular intuition, this result implies that the retailer may enjoy some benefit from consumers' strategic waiting. In addition, we find that the retailer's gain is the highest when impatient and patient consumers are comparably mixed in the population.      

考虑消费者渠道间需求异质性的BOPS服务模式下生鲜品零售定价策略

针对同时拥有线上和线下销售渠道的生鲜零售商,考虑消费者在渠道间的需求异质性,研究其采用BOPS服务模式后的定价策略。在建立线上线下同价策略模型的基础上,提出线上、线下单一渠道折扣策略以及面向BOPS顾客的折扣策略,进一步设计了联合定价策略,并利用数值实验加以验证和扩展。研究表明:线上渠道折扣与线下渠道折扣策略在有效性上互斥;配送成本适中且配送比例较高时,面向BOPS顾客的折扣策略优于其他两种折扣策略;消费者对折扣的敏感度越高,BOPS折扣策略的适用范围越广,优越性越明显;联合折扣策略可以在更大范围内提升零售商利润。     

Consumer return policies in presence of a P2P market

Retailers selling products with valuation uncertainty often offer return policies to consumers to stimulate demand. However, some products that do not meet consumers’ expectations cannot be returned to the retailers either because of retailers’ strict restrictions on returns or because of short trial period. With the development of e-commerce, consumers who cannot return their products to retailers can resell them directly to others through electronic peer-to-peer (P2P) second-hand goods markets. This paper examines the effect of the presence of a P2P market on a retailer’s optimal return policy when the consumers are strategic and uncertain about their valuations. As a benchmark, we first examine the retailer’s optimal return policy when there is only a retailer-run resale market. Then, we analyze the retailer’s optimal return policy in presence of both the retailer-run resale market and the P2P market. Theoretical and numerical results show that, first, the presence of the P2P market is detrimental to the retailer in most cases. The presence of the P2P market is beneficial to the retailer only when the unit purchasing cost is very high, the consumers’ acceptance of products in the P2P market is relatively high and the transaction cost in the P2P market is relatively low; second, the consumer surplus is improved by the presence of P2P market; third, when the retailer-run resale market is the only second-hand products market, returned products are sold out; while in presence of the P2P market, the retailer will hold some inventory when the unit purchasing cost is very low; fourth, the selling price of new products is increased and the selling price of second-hand products in the retailer-run resale market is decreased with the emergence of the P2P market while the refund amount is increased in most cases.     

考虑战略顾客行为时的供应链性能分析与协调

动态定价策略的广泛应用使得越来越多的顾客具有了战略性,战略顾客会根据产品在销售期内的价格路径确定最优购买时机,零售商则根据顾客的购买行为确定订货数量和销售价格.研究了双方静态博弈时的理性预期均衡解和零售商进行数量承诺时的情形.研究表明:理性预期均衡时的最优销售价格、最优存货数量和最优期望利润分别小于标准报童模型的情形;数量承诺时的最优存货数量小于理性预期均衡时的最优存货数量;最优期望利润则大于理性预期均衡时的最优期望利润,并且在一定条件下可能会大于标准报童模型的最优期望利润,战略顾客行为的存在对零售商可能有利.最后分析了在分散式供应链中如何利用收入分享契约和数量折扣契约实现供应链协调.     

产品责任、企业社会责任偏好与供应链中的质量-数量协调

在产品质量和产品数量（订货量）内生化的情形下，同时实现其质量和数量的协调将成为供应链管理的一个重要问题。进一步，在产品低质量对消费者造成伤害的情形下，制造商将面临着产品责任（表征制造商对消费者产品伤害的补偿），从而导致"产品责任如何影响供应链中的质量-数量协调"这一问题。最后，如果核心企业具有对消费者的企业社会责任（CSR）偏好，则这种CSR偏好又如何影响供应链中的质量-数量协调？针对这三个问题，首先，利用批发价合同构建了一个由上游制造商和下游零售商组成的两级供应链运作博弈模型；其次考察了制造商产品责任、CSR偏好程度和质量改进效率对其产品质量决策、批发价合同和相应的供应链节点企业利润的影响；最后，研究了供应链质量-数量协调问题。结果表明：（1）产品责任不影响产品质量、订货量、供应链节点企业经济利润和消费者剩余，但制造商批发价随产品责任的增加而增加；（2）随着CSR偏好程度的增加，产品质量、订货量、零售商经济利润、供应链系统经济利润和消费者剩余随之增加，而制造商经济利润随之减小；（3）质量改进效率的提高，有利于产品质量、订货量、零售商经济利润、供应链系统经济利润和消费者剩余的增加；（4）一个由数量折扣契约和质量改进成本分担契约共同构成的协调机制，可以有效的实现供应链系统的协调，其中，产品责任将促使数量折扣契约中产品批发价的增加和质量改进成本分担比例的减小，而CSR偏好程度的增加将促使数量折扣契约中产品批发价的减小，但不影响质量改进成本分担比例。     

基于期权的易逝品订购预售联合策略研究

由需求不确定所引起的库存过剩或产品脱销通常会给企业的正常运营带来极大风险，本文考虑一种运输时间影响损耗率的易逝品，在消费者估值不确定的情况下，从集成的角度出发，针对零售商的订购与预售联合策略展开研究。需求端零售商可通过批发价订购方式或组合订购方式采购易逝品，销售端可提供折扣预售和期权预售两种策略。通过模型构建详细分析了几种不同的订购预售联合策略，求解了不同策略下的最优订购量和最优预售价格以及不同策略的适用情形。研究发现柔性采购（组合订购方式）和期权预售联合决策可以有效降低需求波动带来的库存积压和产品短缺风险，且期权预售策略比折扣预售策略的应用范围更广。     

基于异质性顾客的随机配给策略研究

文中考虑了三类异质顾客:战略顾客、迟钝顾客与询价顾客,其中,战略顾客具有完全理性与风险中性特征;迟钝顾客由于其迟钝本性,表现出有限理性与隐性风险规避特征,这两类顾客的战略等待加剧了产品供给与需求的不匹配风险。研究了销售商采用随机配给策略以减少延迟购买期中产品可获得概率,促使战略顾客与迟钝顾客提前购买的价值。结论表明,在固定折扣价格策略中,当迟钝顾客的迟钝强度较低时,销售商最优策略是故意创造配给风险分割市场;在弹性折扣价格策略中,销售商是否运用随机配给策略不仅与迟钝强度有关,还取决于弹性价格折扣幅度。然后运用数值分析对这两种机制进行了比较,发现,销售商采用弹性折扣价格策略时,弹性折扣价格越低,随机配给的价值越大,即提供较大幅度价格折扣,反而增加其利润。     

基于消费者评论的网络预售定价策略研究

在线消费者评论成为影响消费者购买行为的重要因素。本文构建两阶段销售模型（预售期、正常销售期），通过刻画预售期消费者评论对正常销售期需求的影响，探究消费者评论如何影响商家定价策略以及商家如何利用消费者评论调节竞争。结果表明，无论在垄断或竞争市场情形下，若忠实消费者选择等待至正常销售期购买产品，商家均会采取折价预售策略，即通过降低预售期价格提升消费者评论，刺激正常销售期的产品需求。在竞争市场情形下，若普通消费者的产品偏好成本非常低且预售期购买量较小，商家的折价预售策略能通过提升消费者评论以阻止竞争者进入市场；随着普通消费者产品偏好成本增大，商家会将重心转向忠实消费者，进而缓解商家之间的竞争。     

产品质量设计与供应链渠道优化——基于策略消费者行为的视角

策略消费者持币观望的行为对零售商和生产商的盈利都会产品负面影响，本文在二级供应链中同时考虑策略消费者的行为和产品质量设计，研究批发价格契约下策略消费者行为对供应链不同渠道利润的影响。分析表明，当生产商决定产品质量时，分散供应链下的产品质量与供应链上下游的议价能力相关，生产商议价能力越强，产品质量越高；当生产商完全掌握确定产品质量和批发价格的权利时，策略消费者的行为加剧了生产商和零售商之间利润分配的不公平，生产商能获得更大比例的利润；面对策略消费者时，厂商承诺产品数量有限能够实现比集中供应链下更高的利润，存在合适的产品质量和批发价格，使得分散供应链能实现数量承诺下的最优利润，并实现提升质量和增加供应链整体利润的双赢。     

焕新计划下考虑消费者细分的产品定价策略

焕新计划是生产商为提升自身竞争优势而推出的一种促销手段，加入焕新计划的消费者在第一阶段可以享受全方位服务，在第二阶段可以享受以旧换新抵扣优惠。消费者将权衡加入焕新计划的费用、服务水平以及抵扣力度等因素决策是否在第一阶段加入焕新计划。本文假设时尚型消费者每阶段都会购买最新产品，而节俭型消费者第一阶段购买产品后在第二阶段继续使用，针对这两类消费者在实施焕新计划和不实施焕新计划两种情况下，构建两阶段模型以决策产品的最优定价；运用解析方法分析了产品的生产成本等参数对最优定价的影响；运用解析方法和数值算例方法对两模型进行对比。     

不同渠道权力结构和信息结构下供应链定价和销售努力决策

本文针对零售商销售努力和销售价格影响需求情况下的制造商-零售商两级供应链,研究不同渠道权力结构和信息结构下供应链的分散决策。基于博弈理论和建模方法,对几种权力结构和信息结构情景建立相应模型,通过理论与数值分析对不同博弈均衡进行比较。研究表明,随着零售商势力逐步增强制造商利润会逐步恶化;但零售商势力增强能否带来更多利润,取决于需求对价格和销售努力的敏感度、销售努力成本以及信息结构。占优一方可以通过获取对方更多信息来改善自己处境。若占优零售商不得不依赖于对制造商成本先验分布进行决策,当估计的均值大于真实成本时,适度的方差对零售商更有利。最后,讨论了销售努力成本分担的合作机制,针对非合作博弈给出了帕累托改进的合约区间和 Nash讨价还价均衡。     

Online Manufacturer Referral to Heterogeneous Retailers

Since the development of the Internet, thousands of manufacturers have been referring consumers visiting their websites to some or all of their retailers. Through a model with one manufacturer and two heterogeneous retailers, we investigate whether it is an equilibrium for the manufacturer to refer consumers exclusively to a retailer or nonexclusively to both retailers. Our analysis indicates that nonexclusive referral is the manufacturer's equilibrium choice if the referral segment market size is sufficiently large; otherwise, exclusive referral is the equilibrium choice. In exclusive referral, the manufacturer would refer consumers to the more cost‐efficient and smaller retailer. In the presence of infomediary referral, it is less likely for both exclusive and nonexclusive referrals to be an equilibrium, as the infomediary referral segment grows. We also show our qualitative results are robust even if there were price discrimination among consumers, referral position disparity, local consumers, and asymmetric referral market sizes.