Keep Your Friends Close? Supply Chain Design and Disruption Risk

In this article, we evaluate the relationship between supply chain design decisions and supply chain disruption risk. We explore two supply chain design strategies: (i) the dispersion of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk versus (ii) the co‐location of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk. In addition, we assess supply chain disruption risk from three perspectives: the inbound material flow from the supplier (supply side), the internal production processes (internal), and the outbound material flow to the customer (customer side) as a disruption can occur at any of these locations. We measure disruption risk in terms of stoppages in flows, reductions in flow, close calls (disruptions that were prevented at the last minute), disruption duration (time until normal operation flow was restored), and the spread of disruptions all the way through the supply chain. We use seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to analyze our data, finding that lead times, especially supply side lead times, are significantly associated with higher levels of supply chain disruption risk. We find co‐location with suppliers appears to have beneficial effects to the reduction of disruption duration, and, overall supply side factors have a higher impact when it comes to supply chain disruption risk than comparable customer side factors.     

The Severity of Supply Chain Disruptions: Design Characteristics and Mitigation Capabilities

Supply chain disruptions and the associated operational and financial risks represent the most pressing concern facing firms that compete in today's global marketplace. Extant research has not only confirmed the costly nature of supply chain disruptions but has also contributed relevant insights on such related issues as supply chain risks, vulnerability, resilience, and continuity. In this conceptual note, we focus on a relatively unexplored issue, asking and answering the question of how and why one supply chain disruption would be more severe than another. In doing so, we argue, de facto, that supply chain disruptions are unavoidable and, as a consequence, that all supply chains are inherently risky. Employing a multiple‐method, multiple‐source empirical research design, we derive novel insights, presented as six propositions that relate the severity of supply chain disruptions (i) to the three supply chain design characteristics of density, complexity, and node criticality and (ii) to the two supply chain mitigation capabilities of recovery and warning. These findings not only augment existing knowledge related to supply chain risk, vulnerability, resilience, and business continuity planning but also call into question the wisdom of pursuing such practices as supply base reduction, global sourcing, and sourcing from supply clusters.     

Price competition,cost and demand disruptions and coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing retailers

This paper studies the coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing retailers after the production cost of the manufacturer was disrupted. We consider two coordination mechanisms: an all-unit quantity discount and an incremental quantity discount. For each mechanism, we develop the conditions under which the supply chain is coordinated and discuss how the cost disruption may affect the coordination mechanisms. For the all-unit quantity discount scheme, we find that the manufacturer charges the lower-cost retailer for a lower unit wholesale price in order to induce him to order more products. If the costs of two retailers have a remarkable difference, then the all-unit quantity discount scheme cannot coordinate the supply chain with disruptions. While the cost disruption may affect the wholesale prices, order quantities as well as retail prices, it is optimal for the supply chain to keep the original coordination mechanism if the production cost change is sufficiently small. The model is also extended to the case with both cost and demand disruptions. The equilibrium strategies of the retailers are investigated when the manufacturer cannot timely react to the disruptions such that she has to keep the original mechanism. We illustrate the results by numerical examples.     

Selection of supply portfolio under disruption risks

This paper deals with the optimal selection of supply portfolio in a make-to-order environment in the presence of supply chain disruption risks. Given a set of customer orders for products, the decision maker needs to decide from which supplier to purchase custom parts required for each customer order to minimize total cost and mitigate the impact of disruption risks. The selection of suppliers and allocation of orders is based on price and quality of purchased parts and reliability of delivery. The two types of disruption scenarios are considered: scenarios with independent local disruptions of each supplier and scenarios with local and global disruptions that may result in all suppliers disruption simultaneously. The problem is formulated as a single- or bi-objective mixed integer program and a value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk approach is applied to control the risk of supply disruptions. The proposed portfolio approach is capable of optimizing the supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk of cost per part and minimizing expected worst-case cost per part simultaneously. Numerical examples are presented and some computational results are reported.     

An interdependent layered network model for a resilient supply chain

This paper addresses the problem of designing supply chains that are resilient to natural or human-induced extreme events. It focuses on the development of efficient restoration strategies that aid the supply chain in recovering from a disruption, thereby limiting the impact on its customers. The proposed restoration model takes into account possible disruptions to infrastructures, e.g., transportation and communications, by explicitly formulating their logical relationships with supply chains. A problem solving process is proposed that provides for cooperation between the managers of the infrastructures and the managers of the supply chains disrupted by an extreme event. Both the model and the problem solving process are exercised with a realistic industry problem.     

供应链应急援助的CVaR模型

企业间通过应急援助方式共同应对突发事件是供应链应急管理的常用合作策略,而应急合作目标是防止突发事件下的损失失去控制.本文引入CVaR来刻画企业在突发事件下的应急目标,进而建立供应链应急援助的决策模型,分析了供应商和零售商遭遇突发事件时的应急援助状况并给出了在一定置信水平控制下的最优援助额.研究表明:CVaR方法能够恰当...     

非对称信息下闭环供应链回购契约应对突发事件策略研究

研究了非对称信息下一个制造商和一个零售商组成的两级闭环供应链在回购契约下的协调问题。在考虑零售商销售成本信息为非对称信息和随机性市场需求基础上,首先,分析了在正常状态下分散式系统决策情况,通过重新设计可变参数解决了信息不对称的问题,实现了回购契约下的信息共享和供应链的完美协调;然后,探讨了闭环供应链回购契约应对突发事件的协调问题。研究结果表明：当突发事件造成市场规模和制造商生产成本同时扰动时,闭环供应链的销售活动将受影响,闭环供应链的协调将被打破,而闭环供应链的废旧品回收活动却不受突发事件的影响。为此,给出了闭环供应链回购契约的应急决策。最后通过数值算例验证了结论。     

Responsive contingency planning in supply risk management by considering congestion effects

Contingency rerouting is known as a cost-effective risk management strategy for major disruptions such as earthquakes and natural disasters. The objective of this paper is to develop a decision-making tool to determine the appropriate response speed of a volume-flexible backup supplier to improve the supply chain responsiveness. We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP)-based capacity planning tool which generates the contingency plan of the supply chain subject to random disruptions. In order to make an accurate decision, the impact of critical operational characteristics such as response time and congestion are considered in a disruption scenario. The appropriate response speed is selected through a decision tree analysis by minimizing the expected supply chain costs. The selection is made with respect to three different attitudes of the decision maker towards risk. In order to evaluate the impact of the different failure and recovery probabilities over the selection process, a sensitivity analysis is presented. The results show that considering congestion is especially critical for risk-neutral decision makers in mitigating against disruptions.     

需求和零售商购买成本同时扰动的供应链应急协调

供应链的契约协调机制是供应链管理的重要内容,突发事件下的供应链协调机制是近年来的研究热点。 研究了在单制造商单零售商组成的供应链中,假设生产成本是其生产数量的凸函数下,当市场需求为零售价格的非线性函数,突发事件造成需求和零售商购买成本同时发生扰动时,集权、分权供应链应对突发事件的最优策略。 首先证明了稳定环境下的数量折扣契约可以实现该供应链的协调,在集权式决策下,供应链的原有生产计划对突发事件具有一定的鲁棒性,但是当突发事件造成的扰动超过一定幅度时,供应链的协调将会被打破,供应链系统必须改变生产计划才能实现其利润最大化。 在分权式决策下,供应链的原数量折扣契约不能使扰动后的供应链达到协调,因此,设计了新的数量折扣契约来使扰动后的供应链达到协调。最后给出一个算例验证了相关结论。     

Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems

Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk‐based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk‐informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high‐risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience.     

Disruptions in tightly coupled supply chain networks: the case of the US offshore oil industry

Managers have paid increasing attention to the exposure of their supply chains to disruptions and seek ways to mitigate supply chain vulnerability. The interconnectedness of tightly coupled supply chain networks makes this a challenging task, because interconnectedness and tight coupling of nodes in the network lead to an amplification of the actual risk exposure. This phenomenon can be attributed to the propagation of losses through the network, which exhibits certain dynamics. In order to investigate this mechanism, we studied the complex supply chain network of the oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico. Our results provide an estimate of the economic impact of eventual random and hurricane-related disruptions and can be used as a decision support tool for risk management of supply disruptions in interconnected supply chain networks.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Supply Chain Disruptions on Long‐Run Stock Price Performance and Equity Risk of the Firm

This paper investigates the long‐term stock price effects and equity risk effects of supply chain disruptions based on a sample of 827 disruption announcements made during 1989–2000. Stock price effects are examined starting one year before through two years after the disruption announcement date. Over this time period the average abnormal stock returns of firms that experienced disruptions is nearly –40%. Much of this underperformance is observed in the year before the announcement, the day of the announcement, and the year after the announcement. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that firms do not quickly recover from the negative effects of disruptions. The equity risk of the firm also increases significantly around the announcement date. The equity risk in the year after the announcement is 13.50% higher when compared to the equity risk in the year before the announcement.     

Supply Network Structure,Visibility, and Risk Diffusion: A Computational Approach

Understanding and managing supply chain risks is a critical functional competency for today's global enterprises. A lack of this competency can have significant negative outcomes, including costly production and delivery delays, loss of future sales, and a tarnished corporate image. The ability to identify and mitigate risks, however, is complicated as supply chains are becoming increasingly global, complex, and interconnected. Drawing on the complex systems and epidemiology literature, and using a computational modeling and network analysis approach, we examine the impact of global supply network structure on risk diffusion and supply network health and demonstrate the importance of supply network visibility. Our results show a significant association between network structure and both risk diffusion and supply network health. In particular, our results indicate that small‐world supply network topologies consistently outperform supply networks with scale‐free characteristics. Theoretically, our study contributes to our understanding of risk management and supply networks as complex networked systems using a computational approach. Managerially, our study illustrates how decision makers can benefit from a network analytic approach to develop a more holistic understanding of system‐wide risk diffusion and to guide network governance policies for more favorable health level outcomes. The article concludes by highlighting the main findings and discussing possibilities of future research directions.     

Supply chain relationship quality and its impact on firm performance

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of supply chain relationship quality (SCRQ) on firm performance (FP) through the mediators of supply chain management processes (SCMP) and supply chain performance (SCP). In the literature, these linkages have been examined separately; in contrast, this study takes a holistic perspective on the antecedents of FP. The model was tested using survey data from manufacturing companies. Variance-based structural equation modelling revealed that both SCMP and SCP lead to FP, unlike SCRQ. On the other hand, SCRQ affects SCMP. Drawing on the resource-based view, consistency in SCRQ can lead to not only efficient and effective supply chain management but also improvements in FP and SCP. This research has practical implications, providing supply chain decision makers with insights on enhancing FP. Supply chain decision makers will be able to benefit from the findings of our study by improving supply chain relationships with supply chain members and ensuring FP. This research also highlights how effective management of SCRQ, SCMP and SCP can provide better FP and a competitive advantage.     

时间约束下不对称信息鲜活农产品供应链应对突发事件协调模型

针对一个由供应商和一个零售商构成的鲜活农产品供应链,在考虑损耗和新鲜度的影响下,假设产品的市场需求为零售价格的非线性函数,零售商成本为私有信息,研究如何协调供应链应对突发事件。 首先,给出了对称信息下供应链协调模型;然后,研究了不对称信息下集权式与分权式供应链的协调机制;再次,研究了在突发事件引起零售商成本分布函数扰动情况下,供应链的最优应对策略。 研究表明,供应链的最优生产计划、最优批发价格和最优零售价格均具有一定的鲁棒性,当突发事件造成零售商期望成本在一定范围内发生扰动时,三者可以保持不变。最后,通过数值仿真验证了相关结论。     

Supply Disruptions,Heterogeneous Beliefs,and Production Efficiencies

Recent years have witnessed the pervasive supply disruptions and their impacts on supply chain performance. In this study, we investigate the optimal procurement design with supply disruptions and heterogeneous beliefs between the buyer and the supplier. We examine the impact of information asymmetry on the supplier's belief, the control right of the backup production, and the verifiability of supply disruption. The belief heterogeneity creates speculative gains and losses because the buyer and the supplier hold different estimates of the disruption probability. We demonstrate that the buyer's incentive to exploit this belief heterogeneity leads to real production inefficiencies in different scenarios. The production efficiency is not necessarily improved with more transparent information. Moreover, a very pessimistic supplier may have no incentive to invest in improving the reliability even if this is costless, and the supplier may produce more when the expected production cost becomes higher. When the buyer sees some value in using the supplier's estimate to update his own belief, we find that the main results hold unless the buyer completely abandons his belief.     

Co‐opetition and Investment for Supply‐Chain Resilience

This paper considers the problem of disruption risk management in global supply chains. We consider a supply chain with two participants, who face interdependent losses resulting from supply chain disruptions such as terrorist strikes and natural hazards. The Harsanyi–Selten–Nash bargaining framework is used to model the supply chain participants' choice of risk mitigation investments. The bargaining approach allows a framing of both joint financing of mitigation activities before the fact and loss‐sharing net of insurance payouts after the fact. The disagreement outcome in the bargaining game is assumed to be the result of the corresponding non‐cooperative game. We describe an incentive‐compatible contract that leads to First Best investment and equal “gain” for all players, when the solution is “interior” (as it almost certainly is in practice). A supplier that has superior security practices (i.e., is inherently safer) exploits its informational advantage by extracting an “information rent” in the usual spirit of incomplete information games. We also identify a special case of this contract, which is robust to moral hazard. The role of auditing in reinforcing investment incentives is also examined.     

Leveraging Supply Chain Integration through Planning Comprehensiveness: An Organizational Information Processing Theory Perspective

This study extends prior research on supply chain planning and integration by examining the underlying capabilities by which firms exploit the information they gain from integration activities. We use organizational information processing theory (OIPT) to develop hypotheses that identify the comprehensiveness of an organization's supply chain planning capabilities as an important mediator in the relationship between its supply chain integration activities and its operational performance. Further, our interpretation of OIPT suggests that an organization's usage of technology‐enabled supply chain management systems (SCMS) moderates these effects. Using survey data from 445 global firms, we estimate the corresponding moderated‐mediation structural model. The results indicate that usage of SCMS enables organizations to better utilize the information they gain from external integration efforts (relationships with customers and suppliers), thus improving the comprehensiveness of their supply chain planning capabilities. In contrast, the use of SCMS appears to be a partial substitute for internal integration as a driver of planning comprehensiveness. Most importantly, the results suggest that planning comprehensiveness is a significant generative means by which integration and technology investments produce superior operational performance. These findings provide a richer and more theoretically grounded explanation of relationships between supply chain integration, supply chain planning, and operational performance.     

Complexity and Self‐Sustainment in Disaster Response Supply Chains

Governmental organizations play a major role in disaster relief operations. Supply chains set up to respond to disasters differ dramatically in many dimensions that affect the cost of relief efforts. One factor that has been described recently is self‐sustainment, which occurs when supplies consumed by intermediate stages of a supply chain must be provided via the chain itself because they are not locally available. This article applies the concept of self‐sustainment to response supply chains. A mathematical model of a self‐sustaining response supply chain is developed. Analysis of this model yields insights about the relationships and interactions among self‐sustainment, speed of disaster onset, dispersion of impact, and the cost of the relief efforts.     

The Impact of E‐Replenishment Strategy on Make‐to‐Order Supply Chain Performance

This research investigates the impact of electronic replenishment strategy on the operational activities and performance of a two‐stage make‐to‐order supply chain. We develop simulation‐based rolling schedule procedures that link the replenishment processes of the channel members and apply them in an experimental analysis to study manual, semi‐automated, and fully automated e‐replenishment strategies in decentralized and coordinated decision‐making supply chain structures. The average operational cost reductions for moving from a manual‐based system to a fully automated system are 19.6, 29.5, and 12.5%, respectively, for traditional decentralized, decentralized with information sharing, and coordinated supply chain structures. The savings are neither equally distributed among participants, nor consistent across supply chain structures. As expected, for the fully coordinated system, total costs monotonically decrease with higher levels of automation. However, for the two decentralized structures, under which most firms operate today, counter‐intuitive findings reveal that the unilateral application of e‐procurement technology by the buyer may lower his purchasing costs, but increase the seller's and system's costs. The exact nature of the relationship is determined by the channel's operational flexibility. Broader results indicate that while the potential economic benefit of e‐replenishment in a decentralized system is substantial, greater operational improvements maybe possible through supply chain coordination.