Bargaining With Asymmetric Information: An Empirical Study of Plea Negotiations

This paper empirically investigates how sentences to be assigned at trial impact plea bargaining. The analysis is based on the model of bargaining with asymmetric information by Bebchuk, 1984. I provide conditions for the nonparametric identification of the model, propose a consistent nonparametric estimator, and implement it using data on criminal cases from North Carolina. Employing the estimated model, I evaluate how different sentencing reforms affect the outcome of criminal cases. My results indicate that lower mandatory minimum sentences could greatly reduce the total amount of incarceration time assigned by the courts, but may increase conviction rates. In contrast, the broader use of non‐incarceration sentences for less serious crimes reduces the number of incarceration convictions, but has a very small effect over the total assigned incarceration time. I also consider the effects of a ban on plea bargains. Depending on the case characteristics, over 20 percent of the defendants who currently receive incarceration sentences would be acquitted if plea bargains were forbidden.     

Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply

How can price elasticities be identified when agents face optimization frictions such as adjustment costs or inattention? I derive bounds on structural price elasticities that are a function of the observed effect of a price change on demand, the size of the price change, and the degree of frictions. The degree of frictions is measured by the utility losses agents tolerate to deviate from the frictionless optimum. The bounds imply that frictions affect intensive margin elasticities much more than extensive margin elasticities. I apply these bounds to the literature on labor supply. The utility costs of ignoring the tax changes used to identify intensive margin labor supply elasticities are typically less than 1% of earnings. As a result, small frictions can explain the differences between micro and macro elasticities, extensive and intensive margin elasticities, and other disparate findings. Pooling estimates from existing studies, I estimate a Hicksian labor supply elasticity of 0.33 on the intensive margin and 0.25 on the extensive margin after accounting for frictions.     

Foreign Participation and Hiring Patterns after Privatization

Critics of globalization claim that foreign ownership of privatized firms is linked to negative post‐privatization labor outcomes, such as more firing and less hiring. This paper uses new firm‐level data for a cross‐section of countries to test this idea and provides evidence that foreign purchasers of state‐owned enterprises tend to acquire firms that were already better restructured before privatization. Additionally, this paper does not find evidence that foreign participation in privatized firms is linked to negative labor outcomes.     

Modeling Exposure to Air Pollution from the WTC Disaster Based on Reports of Perceived Air Pollution

We examined the utility of a newly developed perceived air pollution (PAP) scale and of a modeled air pollution (MAP) scale derived from it for predicting previously observed birth outcomes of pregnant women enrolled following September 11, 2001. Women reported their home and work locations in the four weeks after September 11, 2001 and the PAP at each site on a four-point scale designed for this purpose. Locations were geocoded and their distance from the World Trade Center (WTC) site determined. PAP values were used to develop a model of air pollution for a 20-mile radius from the WTC site. MAP values were assigned to each geocoded location. We examined the relationship of PAP and MAP values to maternal characteristics and to distance of home and work sites from the WTC site. Both PAP and MAP values were highly correlated with distance from the WTC. Maternal characteristics that were associated with PAP values reported for home or work sites (race, demoralization, material hardship, first trimester on September 11) were not associated with modeled MAP values. Relationships of several birth outcomes to proximity to the WTC, which we previously reported using this data set, were also seen when MAP values were used as the measure of exposure, instead of proximity. MAP developed from reports of PAP may be useful to identify high-risk areas and predict health outcomes when there are multiple sources of pollution and a "distance from source" analysis is impossible.     

When are acquisitions a viable catch-up strategy? Some empirical evidence from China

How emerging-market firms can catch up with forerunners from advanced economies is a key issue in the economic and technology literature. Research has suggested that acquisitions are a viable tool for firms in emerging markets to reduce the productivity gap with global leaders, but the empirical evidence on this matter is still far from conclusive. Contributing to this debate, this paper examines the impact of cross-border vs. domestic acquisitions on the labor productivity of firms across different sectoral environments. Studying the acquisitions pursued by Chinese listed firms over one decade, we find that cross-border acquisitions are positively associated with firms' labor productivity and that this effect is particularly strong in high-tech sectors and among leading firms. We also find that domestic acquisitions are positively associated with firms’ labor productivity and that this effect is particularly strong in low-tech sectors and among laggards. We further investigate the mechanisms underlying the acquisition–productivity link and contend that “technological innovation” is the primary mechanism by which acquisitions enhance firm productivity in high-tech sectors, whereas “enhancing operating efficiency” is the primary mechanism by which acquisitions enhance firm productivity in low-tech sectors.     

A Cross‐country Comparison of Attitudes Towards Mothers Working and their Actual Labor Market Experience

In this paper, we use data from the International Social Survey Project to present a cross‐country comparison of attitudes about the labor force participation of mothers. We also estimate earnings functions and probits for full‐time work and examine whether there is a link between attitudes and women’s actual labor market experience across countries. We find that while a woman’s own attitude about work does not directly influence her wage, it does influence the probability that she works full time.     

Early Labour Market Returns to College Subject

Abstract. We estimate early labour market outcomes of Italian university graduates across college subjects. We devote great attention to endogenous selection issues using alternative methods to control for potential self‐selection associated with the choice of the degree subject in order to unravel the causal link between college major and subsequent outcomes in the labour market. Our results suggest that ‘quantitative’ fields (i.e. Sciences, Engineering, and Economics) increase not only the speed of transition into the first job and employment probability but also early earnings, conditional on employment.     

Farms,Families, and Markets: New Evidence on Completeness of Markets in Agricultural Settings

The farm household model has played a central role in improving the understanding of small‐scale agricultural households and non‐farm enterprises. Under the assumptions that all current and future markets exist and that farmers treat all prices as given, the model simplifies households' simultaneous production and consumption decisions into a recursive form in which production can be treated as independent of preferences of household members. These assumptions, which are the foundation of a large literature in labor and development, have been tested and not rejected in several important studies including Benjamin (1992). Using multiple waves of longitudinal survey data from Central Java, Indonesia, this paper tests a key prediction of the recursive model: demand for farm labor is unrelated to the demographic composition of the farm household. The prediction is unambiguously rejected. The rejection cannot be explained by contamination due to unobserved heterogeneity that is fixed at the farm level, local area shocks, or farm‐specific shocks that affect changes in household composition and farm labor demand. We conclude that the recursive form of the farm household model is not consistent with the data. Developing empirically tractable models of farm households when markets are incomplete remains an important challenge.     

我国户籍制度下的劳动力转移

本文考虑到现在还在我国普遍实行的农村与城市分离的户口政策,根据流向城市的农村户口劳动力的去向,将城市部门分为两个部门,建立了一个哈利斯—托塔罗模式的劳动力转移模型。并用这个模型分析了农村户口劳动力向城市劳动转移的经济效果。随着经济发展、改革深化,我国现行的户口政策必将发生重大的变化,本文为加快这方面工作的进程,提供了理论依据。     

Are Patients Patient? The Role of Time to Appointment in Patient Flow

The current state of outpatient healthcare delivery is characterized by capacity shortages and long waits for appointments, yet a substantial fraction of valuable doctors’ capacity is wasted due to no‐shows. In this study, we examine the effect of wait to appointment on patient flow, specifically on a patient's decision to schedule an appointment and to subsequently arrive to it. These two decisions may be dependent, as appointments are more likely to be scheduled by patients who are more patient and are thereby more likely to show up. To estimate the effect of wait on these two decisions, we introduce the willingness to wait (WTW), an unobservable variable that affects both bookings and arrivals for appointments. Using data from a large healthcare system, we estimate WTW with a state‐of‐the‐art non‐parametric method. The WTW, in turn, allows us to estimate the effect of wait on no‐shows. We observe that the effect of increased wait on the likelihood of no‐shows is disproportionately greater among patients with low WTW. Thus, although reducing the wait to an appointment will enable a provider to capture more patient bookings, the effects of wait time on capacity utilization can be non‐monotone. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that increasing wait times can sometimes be beneficial for reducing no‐shows.     

THE QUANTITATIVE ROLE OF CHILD CARE FOR FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND FERTILITY

I document that the labor force participation rate of West German mothers with children aged zero to two exceeds the corresponding child‐care enrollment rate, while the opposite is true for mothers whose children are older than two but below the mandatory schooling age. These facts also hold for a cross‐section of E.U. countries. I develop a life‐cycle model that explicitly accounts for this age‐dependent relationship by including various types of nonpaid and paid child care. I calibrate this model to data for West Germany and use the calibrated model for policy analysis. Increasing the supply of subsidized child care for children aged zero to two generates an increase in the maternal labor force participation rate consistent with empirical evidence from other settings; however, this increase is too small to conclude that the lack of subsidized child care accounts for the low labor force participation rate of mothers with children aged zero to two. The response along the intensive margin suggests that a large fraction of part‐time working mothers would work full‐time if they had greater access to subsidized child care. Finally, making subsidized child care available to more women does not achieve one of the commonly stated goals of such reforms, namely to increase the fertility rate.     

RISK SHARING WITH LIMITED COMMITMENT AND PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY: STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION AND TESTING

In order to analyze the role of limited commitment and preference heterogeneity in explaining the consumption allocation, I propose a theoretical and empirical framework to estimate and evaluate a risk‐sharing model where insurance transfers have to be self‐enforcing and the coefficient of relative risk aversion may depend on observable household characteristics. I compare this model to benchmark models with full commitment and/or without preference heterogeneity using data from three Indian villages. I find that the limited commitment model with heterogeneous preferences outperforms the benchmark models in a statistical sense and in terms of (i) explaining the dynamic response of consumption to idiosyncratic income shocks, (ii) accounting for the variation of consumption unexplained by household and time effects, and (iii) capturing the variation of inequality across time and villages and predicting changes in inequality. I also use the estimated models to predict the effects of a counterfactual tax and transfer policy on the consumption allocation. The limited commitment model with preference heterogeneity predicts larger benefits to the poor than its homogeneous counterpart. (JEL: C52, D10, D52)     

Informal Referrals,Employment, and Wages: Seeking Causal Relationships

Employers and job seekers rely extensively on informal referrals to fill vacancies or to find a job. The widespread use of job contacts has been largely associated with labor outcomes, such as finding a job or even affecting wages. This paper explores whether the use of informal referrals on the job search process affects labor market outcomes of Colombian urban workers. Results indicate that informal referrals are slightly more successful than other job search strategies in term of job seeker's placement. However, referred workers earn in average less than their non‐referred counterparts. Yet, this is only true in formal‐sector positions.     

The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita

This study utilizes regression discontinuity to examine the long‐run impacts of the mita, an extensive forced mining labor system in effect in Peru and Bolivia between 1573 and 1812. Results indicate that a mita effect lowers household consumption by around 25% and increases the prevalence of stunted growth in children by around 6 percentage points in subjected districts today. Using data from the Spanish Empire and Peruvian Republic to trace channels of institutional persistence, I show that the mita's influence has persisted through its impacts on land tenure and public goods provision. Mita districts historically had fewer large landowners and lower educational attainment. Today, they are less integrated into road networks and their residents are substantially more likely to be subsistence farmers.     

房价上涨、家庭债务与城镇居民消费:贷款价值比的视角

家庭借贷是缓解居民支大于收、平缓消费的重要手段,而贷款价值比的约束迫使家庭的债务规模必须控制在一定的范围之内;与此同时,持续上涨的房价不断逼近贷款价值比约束,最终表现为消费的大幅度波动。基于家庭追踪调查(CFPS)微观数据,本文细致考察了房价上涨、家庭债务对城镇居民消费的影响。结果表明:(1)家庭债务对城镇居民消费的杠杆显著,即使将样本细分为有房家庭与无房家庭,杠杆效应依然显著;(2)持续上涨的房价将显著促进有房家庭的消费,且这正向作用将被贷款价值比放大;而上涨的房价将抑制无房家庭的消费。(3)无论是有房家庭还是无房家庭,贷款价值比对居民消费的作用存在明显的门槛效应,即只有当贷款价值比增大到一定水平时,其对居民消费的影响将由促进转为抑制。(4)房价上涨对城镇居民消费的作用在不同群体间差异明显,受教育程度高的城镇家庭,或者持有二套房以上的家庭,房价上涨对城镇居民消费的促进效应更强。     

Size,Skill and Sorting

Abstract. The rise in inequality between the 1970s and the 1990s and the persistent gap in pay between large and small employers are two of the most robust findings in the study of labor markets. Mainstream economists focus on differences in observable and unobservable skills to explain both the overall rising inequality and the size–wage gap. In this paper we model how increasing returns to skill can affect the size–wage gap both with constant sorting and with size‐biased, skill‐biased technological change (e.g. if large firms always had access to computers, but small firms gained access to computers with the rise of affordable personal computers). We analyze the Current Population Surveys from 1979 to 1993 to determine whether large and small employers are converging in terms of mean wages (the employer size–wage effect), wage structures by occupation and education, characteristics of employees, and wage structures by region. We find mixed evidence of convergence and no consistent support for any single version of human capital theory.     

THE EFFECT OF JOINT CUSTODY ON FAMILY OUTCOMES

Since the 1970s almost all US states have introduced a form of joint custody after divorce. I analyze the causal effect of these custody law reforms on different family outcomes. My identification strategy exploits the different timing of reforms across the US states. Estimations based on state panel data suggest that the introduction of joint custody led to an increase in marriage rates, an increase in overall fertility (including a shift from nonmarital to marital fertility), and an increase in divorce rates for older couples. Accordingly, female labor market participation decreased. Further, male suicide rates and domestic violence fell in treated states. The empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that joint custody increased the relative bargaining power of men within marriage.     

A Structural Model of Dense Network Formation

This paper proposes an empirical model of network formation, combining strategic and random networks features. Payoffs depend on direct links, but also link externalities. Players meet sequentially at random, myopically updating their links. Under mild assumptions, the network formation process is a potential game and converges to an exponential random graph model (ERGM), generating directed dense networks. I provide new identification results for ERGMs in large networks: if link externalities are nonnegative, the ERGM is asymptotically indistinguishable from an Erdős–Rényi model with independent links. We can identify the parameters only when at least one of the externalities is negative and sufficiently large. However, the standard estimation methods for ERGMs can have exponentially slow convergence, even when the model has asymptotically independent links. I thus estimate parameters using a Bayesian MCMC method. When the parameters are identifiable, I show evidence that the estimation algorithm converges in almost quadratic time.     

Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐term Follow‐up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.     

Looks and Labor: Do Attractive People Work More?

Using the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) 2008, I investigate how looks affect an individual's labor supply decision. My results are, by and large, in line with predictions derived from the neoclassical model of labor supply. Applying regular probit, bivariate probit, Tobit and Heckman selection regression models, I find that good looks go hand in hand with higher employment probabilities and more hours of market work. Furthermore, physical attractiveness is positively associated with spousal income and spousal employment. Hence, beauty appears to affect labor supply decisions both directly and through the marriage market.