Information evaluation under nonadditive expected utility

We examine the choice-of-single-stage-experiment problem (Raiffa and Schlaifer, 1961) under the assumption that the decider's (weak) preference relation satisfies Schmeidler's (1989) or Gilboa's (1987) axiomatization and is thus representable by a nonadditive expected-utility functional as a Choquet integral w.r.t. a monotone probability measure on events. The basic properties of information value, certainty equivalent of information cost, net gain of information, and optimal choice of experiment that obtain (La Valle, 1968) when satisfies the Anscombe-Aumann (1963) or Savage (1954) axiomatizations continue to obtain in the more general Schmeidler-Gilboa context-provided that there is no incentive to randomize the choice of experiment. When this proviso fails, information value can in general be assigned only to the set of available experiments.     

Good decision vs. good results: Outcome bias in the evaluation of financial agents

Theory and Decision - We document outcome bias in situations where an agent makes risky financial decisions for a principal. In three experiments, we show that the principal’s evaluations and...     

A condition for Nash-stability under binary and democratic group decision functions

A necessary and sufficient condition is established in terms of restrictions on individual preferences for a class of democratic systems to be Nash-stable: that there is no one in the society who can profitably misrepresent his preferences. It is shown that only a very strong similarity of preferences can eliminate the incentive for individuals to misreveal their preferences. Since individual preferences in actual practice are not likely to be so similar, the result in this paper shows that strategic misrevelation of preferences by individuals remains a disturbing possibility under this class of democratic rules.We are grateful to Professor Prasanta K. Pattanaik for many helpful suggestions.     

中国加入WTO谨防输家假借赢家的反对

中美达成中国加入WTO协议引发各自输家的反对。资源禀赋不同的中美两国内部 ,赢家和输家正相反。中国强有力的、有组织的输家 ,正在假借赢家反对赢家的利益。中国拥有最充裕的劳动力要素的农民、劳动密集型的农业及其加工制造业、长期受歧视的农村 ,将因资源的全球流动、中国劳动力价格提高而成为赢家。完全不必跟在劳动力稀缺、历来受到高度保护的欧美发达国家农民、劳动密集型制造业和非技术劳工后面“抗议” ,更不必跟在国内稀缺要素拥有者、各种垄断势力后面叫唤“狼来了”。     

Differentiation in small group power relations under conditions of diminishing external reward contingencies

This article examines the effects of diminishing external rewards on the structured differentiation which occurs in groups. The article proposes a model which suggests that power structures in groups result from both the rates of directive activity and the rates of environmental rewards. Under declining external reward conditions groups become more discriminated. Such discrimination leads to the development and maintenance of structurally differentiated groups.     

Preventive therapy and resilience promotion: an evaluation of social work led skills development group work

Concerns have been expressed for some time about a decline in emphasis on therapeutic work in social work, notably articulated in the Munro Review. Further concerns have been expressed in child care that social workers have increasingly had to focus on child protection work rather than earlier stages of prevention. However, there remain opportunities for social workers through the development of new programmes. One development has been that of Behaviour and Education Support Teams: multi‐professional teams, containing as a key element social workers, and encouraging novel practices designed to help emotional stability and improved behaviour and education performance. This study reports on an evaluation of a social worker delivered school‐based social skills programme, which can contribute to the important area of resilience. This showed significant and sustained improvements in pro‐social behaviour and friendships. The implications of this for the therapeutic potential and professional role of social work are discussed.     

Individual vs. group decision-making: an experiment on dynamic choice under risk and ambiguity

This paper focuses on the comparison of individual and group decision-making, in a stochastic inter-temporal problem in two decision environments, namely risk and ambiguity. Using a consumption/saving laboratory experiment, we investigate behaviour in four treatments: (1) individual choice under risk; (2) group choice under risk; (3) individual choice under ambiguity and (4) group choice under ambiguity. Comparing decisions within and between decision environments, we find an anti-symmetric pattern. While individuals are choosing on average closer to the theoretical optimal predictions, compared to groups in the risk treatments, groups tend to deviate less under ambiguity. Within decision environments, individuals deviate more when they choose under ambiguity, while groups are better planners under ambiguity rather than under risk. Our results extend the often observed pattern of individuals (groups) behaving more optimally under risk (ambiguity), to its dynamic dimension.

     

建安后期文人活动文学性彰显的原因

建安后期,文人内部的宴集、游览、出征等活动所显示出来的浓郁的文学色彩,除了该期曹氏政权的巩固、生活的安定、经济的相对繁荣等原因外,主要还有以下原因:第一,文人的内部活动促使他们视文学为表性达意和获得审美娱乐的载体的心理创作定势走上完全自觉;第二,文人的内部活动为他们竞才创作提供了很好的机会和场所;第三,文人的内部活动更加决定了他们在社会中的身份和地位,这使他们认识到只有以文学创作作为自己的主要事业或职业,才能生成的比较自由和宽松。     

Outcome evaluation of peer support programme for helping Chinese parents under stress

The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a support group programme using peer parent counsellors in reducing participant stress and enhancing social support. Participants included 173 Chinese parents with 134 providing complete data. They were randomly assigned to intervention and control groups at service-centre level. The results indicated that there was a significant decrease in psychological distress and increase in social support among intervention group participants at post-intervention, compared with the control group. Qualitative data also indicated that participants' stress was reduced through sharing with their peers. Implications for social service practice were discussed.     

Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance

This paper reports the results of experiments designed to test whether individuals and groups abide by monotonicity with respect to first-order stochastic dominance and Bayesian updating when making decisions under risk. The results indicate a significant number of violations of both principles. The violation rate when groups make decisions is substantially lower, and decreasing with group size, suggesting that social interaction improves the decision-making process. Greater transparency of the decision task reduces the violation rate, suggesting that these violations are due to judgment errors rather than the preference structure. In one treatment, however, less complex decisions result in a higher error rates.