Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis

Since the 1960 Census, Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used by the Census Bureau to evaluate the coverage of the population. Administrative statistics on births, deaths, immigration and Medicare enrollments as well as estimates of legal emigration and net undocumented immigration are used to produce demographic analysis estimates of the population for the census date. These estimates are compared to the Census 2000 data to evaluate coverage in the census. The results are also compared to measures of undercount obtained from dual system estimation. The DA measures substantial reduction in net undercount in Census 2000 compared to 1990. The reductions occur among all demographic categories: all broad age groups, males and females, Blacks and Non-Blacks.     

State-Level 2010 Census Coverage Rates for Young Children

The Census Bureau’s demographic analysis (DA) shows that the net undercount rate for children aged 0–4 was 4.6 percent in the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census while adults (age 18 and older) had a net overcount rate of 0.7 percent. For the population aged 0–4, DA estimates are seen as more accurate than the U.S. Decennial Census because the estimates for this young population rely heavily on highly accurate birth certificate data. Given the relatively high net undercount rate for young children, it would be useful to examine census coverage rates for this population in subnational geographic units. In this study, the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census counts of children aged 0–4 are compared to the corresponding figures from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2010 Population Estimates in each state. Differences between the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census count and the Vintage 2010 Population Estimates for the population aged 0–4 range from an estimated net undercount of 10.2 percent in Arizona to an estimated net overcount of 2.1 percent in North Dakota. Larger states tended to have higher net undercounts than smaller states. The ten largest states account for about 70 percent of the national net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Of all the factors examined here, the relative size of the Blacks Alone or in Combination plus Hispanics population is most highly correlated with the estimated net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Other measures that were highly correlated with net undercount rates for the population aged 0–4 were linguistic isolation, percent of adults without a high school degree, and the unemployment rate. In general, characteristics of people are more highly correlated with the net undercount rates of young children than the characteristics of housing units.     

Fertility trends in Pakistan--the decline that wasn't

The own-child method of fertility estimation was applied to data from 4 successive household surveys in Pakistan--the 1973 Housing, Economic, and Demographic Survey; the 1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey; the 1979 Population, Labor Force, and Migration Survey; and the 1981 Census. Results suggest large fertility oscillations 8-15 years before each survey, a sharp decline during the next 6 years, and a slight upturn in the year preceding the survey. However, when the 4 data sources are analyzed together, it becomes clear that the reported fertility declines are spurious. In fact, the results indicate that Pakistan's total fertility rate actually increased in the 2 decades preceding the 1981 Census, from slightly under to slightly above 7 children/women. This pattern is apparent when fertility data are aggregated over calendar years, allowing the tendency for errors from age misreporting to cancel one another out. Whatever fertility decline may have occurred has been confined to the very small group of Pakistan women with more than a primary education. It appears that births were misplaced away from the survey date, because of a pattern of exaggerations of children's ages that increases with age, thereby underestimating fertility in the 5-year period just before the survey. This analysis points to the value of juxtaposition of trends from multiple data sources. It further suggests a need for serious attention to family planning program performance in Pakistan if the Government's goal of achieving a birth rate of 36/1000 by 1988 is to be achieved.     

Natural Increase: A New Source of Population Growth in Emerging Hispanic Destinations in the United States

Updated US Census Bureau estimates and race/ethnic‐specific birth and death data for the post‐2000 period are used to highlight the increasing role of natural increase as an engine of population growth in emerging Hispanic destinations. Newly emerging Hispanic growth areas are distinguished from established and high‐growth areas from the 1990s. The findings document that recent Hispanic population gains have been generated increasingly by natural increase—the excess of Hispanic births over deaths. Hispanics accounted for 46 percent of the population gain and 53 percent of the natural increase in nonmetro America in 2000–2005. Yet, Hispanics represented only 5.4 percent of the nonmetro population in 2000. In metro areas, they accounted for 50 percent of the population gain and 47 percent of the natural increase, although they comprised only 14 percent of the metro population. Current trends suggest that the ascendancy of the US Hispanic population is likely to continue unabated, whether restrictive immigration legislation is enacted or not. The growth of the Hispanic population, caused increasingly by natural increase, has taken on a demographic momentum of its own.     

Accuracy of death certificate ages for the extreme aged

This study attempts to verify age reporting on the death certificate for the “extreme aged” population and to evaluate the accuracy of recent death rates for this group in light of the findings. In addition, methods used and problems encountered in carrying out a record linkage study, particularly a low match rate, are identified. A sample of more than three thousand death records was selected from those filed for decedents age 85 and over in Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the 1968 to 1972 period. Death certificates of 53 percent of whites and 30 percent of nonwhites were linked to the 1900 U.S. Census. A comparison of age on the death certificate with the age reported for the same individual in the census record showed a high level of agreement for whites, except at ages 100 and over; for nonwhites, however, age agreement levels were substantially lower. Within racial groups, there was little difference by sex in agreement on age. These results, corroborating those of earlier studies, make it clear that nonwhite mortality at the oldest ages has been consistently understated in official statistics.     

The Effect of Age Misreporting in China on the Calculation of Mortality Rates at Very High Ages

When mortality rates by age are calculated from recorded deaths and enumerated populations, rates at higher ages are typically in error because of misstated ages. Mortality rates for China in 1981 have been calculated from the number of deaths in 1981 in each household recorded in the 1982 census, and from the census population back-projected one year. Because age was determined from date of birth, and because persons of the Chinese culture have very precise knowledge of date of birth, the mortality rates even at high ages should be unusually accurate. This expectation is fulfilled for most of China, but severe misreporting of age is found in a province that contains a large minority of a non-Han nationality, which lacks precise knowledge of date of birth. Although the province contains only 1.3% of China's population, male death rates above age 90 for all of China are distorted seriously by the erroneous data from this location.     

Trends in Child Poverty in Hong Kong Immigrant Families

In Hong Kong, child poverty is a serious social problem which may lead to intergenerational poverty, but nevertheless only a few studies have examined this issue, particularly for immigrant families. Using Census data (5 %) from 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011, we assessed child poverty rates in the past three decades and identified key variables contributing to changes in the risk of child poverty for both immigrant and local families. Our results indicate that child poverty rates in Hong Kong-born families have fluctuated between 14.3 and 15.8 % over the past three decades, while for immigrant families they have increased steadily and substantially from 18.1 % in 1981 to 36.5 % in 2001 and then to 37.5 % in 2011. We show that the increase in immigrant child poverty is associated with changes in the Hong Kong economy that have made it more difficult for such families to adapt to the host society, especially in the 1990s and that this negative effect offset the positive influence of compositional changes among this group of immigrant families in terms of parental education levels and family size. The gap between immigrant and local families in terms of child poverty risk is mainly due to the fact that during the 1990s the negative effect of contextual changes in Hong Kong was cancelled out by the beneficial impact of compositional changes for local families, but not for immigrant families where the latter effect was minimal.     

Fertility trends,excess mortality,and the Great Irish Famine

This paper has developed estimates of the age-specific mortality rates prevailing during the Great Irish Famine and has analyzed fertility trends during the 25 years before the Famine. Our calculations confirm that 1 million Irish people perished as a result of this disaster. This figure does not include the deaths among the 1.3 million emigrants who left Ireland during the Famine period. The Famine produced a significant drop in the fertility rate, and we estimate that more than 300,000 births did not take place as a result of the Famine. The effects were especially severe on the very young and the very old, a result echoed in the findings of demographic analyses of other famines. Our procedure permits a reconstruction of the Irish population by age and sex during the period 1821-1841. In addition, it yields year-by-year estimates of the birth rate over this period. We estimate that the rate fell by about 14 percent, a result robust to our assumptions regarding emigration. Economic historians have debated this issue, and we hope that our evidence, although preliminary, will be of assistance. Our analysis also permits year-by-year reconstruction of Irish population totals for the period 1821-1851. Two years are of particular interest. Virtually all recent writers, with the notable exception of Lee (1981), have suggested that the 1831 census returns overestimated the actual population resident in Ireland at that date. Our reconstruction supports the validity of the 1831 census figure. We obtain a total of 7,847,000, which is in good agreement with the disputed census figure of 7,767,000. But perhaps the most interesting figure is the population total for the end of 1845, the highest ever achieved in Ireland. We estimate that the population on the eve of the Great Famine was 8,525,000. Throughout the paper we have tried to highlight those areas in which the data are unreliable, unavailable, or distorted. We have tried to devise cross-checks for consistency and to test the sensitivity of the results to a range of assumptions. A case in point concerns the age-sex profile and volume of emigration to England, Scotland, and Wales. Additional work at the micro level would be helpful here. More solid evidence on Famine births would also be helpful. The parish registers we have sampled certainly provide a clue to trends, but we have only made a start in that respect. A much more comprehensive survey is needed to convey the national picture.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Infant mortality by Father’s occupation from the 1911 Census of England and Wales

Infant mortality in England and Wales only began its secular decline at the beginning of this century, although mortality among those aged 1-4 began to decline earlier. The 1911 Census of Fertility provides the basis for estimates of infant mortality among occupational groups. A diagrammatic model of decline is elaborated, using fertility decline, social class, income, and urban/rural distribution as explanatory variables. Results of the analysis suggest that infant mortality decline, whose average value was 35 percent from a peak of 132 per 1,000, was increased by improvements in the urban environment and advanced by high or regular income, whereas fertility decline had only a small effect.     

A Comparative Evaluation of Error and Bias in Census Tract-Level Age/Sex-Specific Population Estimates: Component I (Net-Migration) vs Component III (Hamilton–Perry)

While the housing-unit method continues to be the preferred method nationwide for producing small-area population estimates, this procedures lacks a method for making age/sex-specific estimates. This paper reports evaluation research on implementation of component-based methods for estimating census tract populations with age/sex detail. Two alternatives are explored: (1) the Component I method relying upon estimates of births, deaths, and net-migration and (2) the Component III method relying solely upon 1990 and 2000 Census counts. From an April 1, 2000 base, each method is used to make estimates moving forward to an April 1, 2010 estimate that is compared to the results of the 2010 Census. The two methods are compared in terms of accuracy and bias using both absolute and algebraic mean and median percentage errors. Results are reviewed and discussed in light of their implications for applied demographers tasked with making small-area demographic estimates.     

Evolution of an urban epidemic: The first 100,000 AIDS cases in New York City

Between 1981 and August 1997, 100,000 AIDS cases were reported in New York City (NYC): 77,067 men, 20,818 women, 307 teenagers, and 1,808 children. This report examines AIDS trends in NYC as the epidemic evolved from a predominantly white male epidemic among men with same sex contact (MSM) mostly from a single borough to a geographically diffuse epidemic that includes injecting drug users (IDU), persons of color, and women infected heterosexually. Case data were collected by active surveillance methods augmented by electronic laboratory based reporting. Mortality data were obtained from NYC Vital Statistics. 1990 Census data were used to derive incidence rates and prevalence by neighborhood income. Rates per 100,000 adults by neighborhood ranged from 260 to 5,500. Total AIDS incidence peaked in 1993 and has subsequently declined. Among men there was a shift from MSM to IDU as the predominant risk group, and increasing incidence among men reporting heterosexual contact. IDU was the leading risk factor among women, and women increased from 8 to 30 percent of all cases between 1982 and 1997. Unlike incidence, AIDS prevalence is rising among socially and economically marginalized populations, and will remain a major public health challenge well into the next century.     

Research Note: US Census Same-Sex Couple Data: Adjustments to Reduce Measurement Error and Empirical Implications

US Census same-sex couple data represent one of the richest and most frequently used data resources for studying the LGBT population. Recently, the Census Bureau conducted an analysis of a serious measurement problem in these data, finding that as many as 40 % of same-sex couples tabulated in Census 2000 and 28 % of those tabulated in Census 2010 were likely misclassified different-sex couples (O’Connell and Feliz, Bureau of the Census, 2011). As a result, the Census Bureau released new state-level “preferred” estimates for the number of same-sex couples in these years, as well as previously unavailable information regarding the error rate of sex misclassification among different-sex married and unmarried couples by state and year. Researchers can use this information to adjust same-sex couple tabulations for geographic areas below the state level. Using these resources, this study: (1) considers in greater detail how the properties of the same-sex couple error might affect statistical inference, (2) offers a method for developing sub-state estimates of same-sex couples, and (3) demonstrates how using adjusted estimates can improve inference in analyses that rely on understanding the distribution of same-sex couples. In order to accomplish the third task, we replicate an analysis by McVeigh and Diaz (American Sociological Review 74: 891–915, 2009) that used county level Census 2000 unadjusted same-sex couple data, substitute our adjusted same-sex couple estimate, and examine the way in which this substitution affects findings. Our results demonstrate the improved accuracy of the adjusted measure and provide the formula that researchers can use to adjust the same-sex couple distribution in future analyses.     

Research Note: Babies Born After Census Day: How the Census Bureau Addressed Dates of Birth After Census Day in the 2010 Census

The fundamental purpose of the decennial Census is an enumeration of the U.S. population at a particular “Census moment” for the purpose of apportionment. The “Census moment” for the 2010 Census occurred at 11:59 p.m. on April 1, 2010. This means that, ideally, all persons alive and living in the United States at that moment are included in the Census count, while any person not alive at that moment is excluded. In reality, this goal is challenging to achieve. Since the actual date of data collection often varies widely, it is possible that individuals are included, or excluded, in the count due to this discrepancy between the Census Day and the date of data collection. In this paper, I explore how the Census Bureau addresses this issue specifically when dates of birth after Census Day are encountered. First, I describe the three methods of data collection (Self-administered questionnaires, enumerator-administered questionnaires, and Telephone Questionnaire Assistance/Coverage Follow-Up operator-administered questionnaires), and how dates of birth after Census Day are addressed in each of these methods. Next, I explore related findings from the 2010 Census, including how many dates of birth after Census Day were found in the 2010 Census data, how they were processed according to data collection method, and how this impacted the final Census count. Finally, I discuss the performance of the new procedures related to dates of birth after Census Day that were implemented in the 2010 Census, along with implications for moving forward into future Censuses.     

Multilevel Determinants of Colleges/Universities Enrolment in Vietnam: Evidences from the 15% Sample Data of Population Census 2009

In an increasingly knowledge-based globalized world, higher education, advanced training and skill development are critical priorities for Vietnam. This paper aims to estimate the participation in higher education and its regional distribution in Vietnam, and to identify its determinants at the individual and contextual levels. Data used were from Vietnam Population and Housing Census 2009 linked with Vietnam living standard survey 2009. The participation rate overall in the colleges/universities among 19–22 year olds in Vietnam was 16.3%, but this rate varied significantly across the provinces. Household socioeconomic status, gender, ethnic group, migrant status, and urban/rural residence were significant individual level predictors of participation while indicator of fertility stabilization, income distribution, and average education level were significant predictors at the contextual (provincial) level. The results show that individual, social and regional inequalities are important impediments to higher education participation among the Vietnam youth. The government needs to pay more attention to promoting higher education and training in order to position Vietnam in the global economy.     

中国老龄人口死亡公平性分析

目的：本研究旨在分析中国2000年和2005年不同社会经济状况的地区间老龄人口死亡的公平性,并对其可能的社会决定因素进行讨论。方法：应用标准化集中曲线和集中指数对中国老龄人口在地区水平的死亡不平等进行测量。资料主要来源于中国2000年人口普查数据和2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据。结果：2000年和2005年。中国老龄人口总的死亡集中指数分别为-0．028和-0．022。按性别计算的老龄人口死亡集中指数2000年为-0．032（女性）和-0．020（男性）,2005年为-0．022（女性）和-0．020（男性）。结论：在中国,尽管老龄人口死亡略微向低社会经济状况的地区集中,但其集中程度并不强。提示中国老龄人口死亡在地区水平上具有较好的公平性。而且,老龄人口死亡微弱的集中有消弱的趋势．这主要归功于老龄女性死亡不平等的减少。     

Emigration from Canada in the 1960s

Summary Emigration from Canada can be assessed only by indirect means. Here, survival ratios have been applied to the total population enumerated in the 1961 Census and to particular segments of it, so that a comparison of the calculated numbers in 1971 with the population actually enumerated indicates the volume of emigration during the decade, both in the whole population and in certain groups. Amounting to two-thirds of the number of immigrants during the same period, the estimate for the ten years is exactly double the volume of emigration reported to the Joint Parliamentary Committee on immigration policy of 1975. Since 1971, the level of emigration has probably fallen. Of the 960,000 emigrants during the decade, 42 per cent were Canadian-born. Their favourite destination was the United States; immigrants, on the other hand, tended to return home. Many immigrants now stay in Canada for only a few years. Fewer Canadians emigrate to the United States. These two factors have contributed to a new pattern of emigration, up-to-date details of which will not be ascertained before the Census of 1981.     

Aboriginal migration and labour market programs

Despite the potential for government employment policies both to encourage and preclude migration among the Aboriginal workforce, little is known about the impacts of such policies. This paper seeks to construct a base line for identifying these impacts by establishing the spatial structure of labour migration among the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. It makes use of 1986 Census data to describe the volume and pattern of net and gross flows of working-age Aborigines and Islanders through the national settlement system, distinguishing between movements in remote and closely settled parts of the country. Full determination of the links between policy and migration flows awaits comparison with 1991 Census results.     

Year of immigration and socioeconomic status: A comparative study of three Asian populations in California

This study is the first attempt to search for the relationship between socioeconomic characteristics and year of immigration among Asian populations in the United States for the purpose of examining the feasibility of the ‘late arrival hypothesis’ that late arrival accounts for one's low socioeconomic status at the place of destination. In order to discuss additionally how differences in socioeconomic characteristics among Asian ethnic groups occur, Japanese were selected as an early immigrated Asian population, Korean as an intermediately immigrated one, and Vietnamese as a late immigrant. The data for this study are from the 5 percent public use sample of the 1980 Census of Population for the State of California.     

Demographic consequences of the 1984–1985 Ethiopian famine

This article analyzes demographic responses to the 1984-1985 Ethiopian famine and compares them with Bongaarts and Cain's (1982) hypothesized responses. After briefly describing the data collection, I estimate the age distribution and the age-specific mortality and fertility rates of Ethiopian famine victims in a resettlement area and compare these with mortality estimates for the 1972-1973 Bangladesh famine and with fertility estimates from the 1981 Ethiopian demographic survey. The results show that the mortality rate among Ethiopian famine victims was about seven times higher than the rate among the Bangladesh victims and that the Ethiopian famine-related mortality was general and not a function of household socioeconomic variables. The data also show a 26 percent lower total fertility rate among famine victims.     

First-marriage decrement tables by color and sex for the United States in 1958–60

A new set of first-marriage tables is compared with earlier tables that were prepared by Grabill and Jacobson. The new tables show, among other things, the number of first marriages, first-marriage probabilities, and death probabilities for single persons in a stationary (life table) population by color and sex, based on 1960 Census data on marital status and age at first marriage and on general mortality rates for 1959-61. A comparison of the earlier tables with the new tables provides evidence of a decrease of one or two years in the average age at first marriage between 1920-40 and 1958-60 and an increasing tendency for first marriages to be concentrated within a narrower span of years. The prospects for eventual marriage have risen to the point where it is estimated that all but 3 to 5 percent of the young adults are expected eventually to marry. This development has gone so far that the main question remaining is not whether young people will ever marry, but at what age they will marry.