International Transmission Effect of Volatility between the Financial Markets during the Asian Financial Crisis

In this paper I propose an analysis of interaction among global economies by focusing on the regional financial markets of Asian countries during and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, in order to study the dynamic relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes. In addition, the impact of the Asian financial crisis is also examined. For the methodology, the bivariate EGARCH (exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) and EGARCH-X models are used to examine the interrelationship of stock markets and foreign exchange markets. The empirical results show that a two-way feedback relationship exists between the volatility of stock returns and exchange rate changes during the recovery period of the Asian countries. This result is important because the effect of volatility transmission between global financial markets can still be observed today. Furthermore, when comparing the volatility transmission during the crisis period with that during the recovery period, it shows that the spillover effect has increased during the recovery period, indicating that the strength of the transmission mechanism has increased after the Asian financial crisis. This result also suggests that the interactions of the stock and foreign exchange markets of Asian countries were affected by the Asian financial crisis, and the impact is greater for Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and especially Thailand, which were more vulnerable during the financial crisis.     

LIQUIDITY RISK AND TIME‐VARYING CORRELATION BETWEEN EQUITY AND CURRENCY RETURNS

Using the data of 20 major Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries over time, this article documents new evidence on real equity and real currency prices: higher real returns in the home equity market relative to its foreign counterparts are generally associated with real home currency depreciation at monthly frequency, but this negative correlation breaks down or even reverses during times of relatively higher aggregate economic uncertainty or volatility. This article also argues that a long‐run risks‐type model with time‐varying liquidity risk in stock markets can provide one plausible explanation for the time‐varying correlation structure. (JEL E43, F31, G12, G15)     

The Progress of Financial Market Integration in East Asia

The study investigates the progress of financial market integration in selected East Asian countries after the 1997 financial crisis. Adopting Johansen (Econometrica 59:1551–1580, 1991) multivariate cointegration on the region’s credit and stock markets, the study finds only partial cointegration in both markets which imply a low level of integration. However, for regional stock markets, the result suggests that the level of integration has been improving after the crisis.     

A Characterization of the Argentinian production sector prior to the 1998 crisis

This paper formally characterizes the Argentinian production sector in the period previous to the last crisis. To do so, we jointly estimate the capital stock, its depreciation rate, and the aggregate production function of the Argentinian economy during the 90s. In this respect, the paper not only completes the Argentinian statistics, but also proposes new estimation methods, goes beyond the usual qualitative and financial studies carrying out a quantitative analysis in real terms of the Argentinian production sector, and provides the government with a powerful instrument to design and evaluate economic policies. The paper concludes that the Argentinian capital stock is obsolete, scarce, and, from the real economy point of view, one of the main determinants of the crisis suffered by the country since 1998.     

COLLATERAL CONSTRAINTS AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

We investigate the impact of domestic financial frictions on the current account dynamics in Asian countries before and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998 by introducing collateral constraints into the intertemporal current account approach. We examine six Asian countries. Before the crisis, collateral constraints significantly impact the current account in Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, but after the crisis, they do not. Our study shows that the impact of domestic financial frictions on the current account changes before and after a financial crisis. (JEL F32, F41)     

Investing in Turbulent Times: The Investment Behavior of Polish Firms in the Early Transition

We examine the investment behavior of a sample of Polish industrial firms over the period 1991–1993 by means of a model that views investment flows as part of the firm’s effort to adjust its assets and liabilities so as to maximize the returns to the firm. We argue that the application of neoclassical models of investment is more appropriate in cases where net investment is positive and where the returns to other assets and costs of liabilities are stable. If firms are seeking to reduce their capital stock, then the major constraints are not financial but rather set by the speed of physical depreciation. If the returns to other assets or the costs of liabilities change, then the firm will be forced to reconfigure its balance sheet in a way that may be inconsistent with the neoclassical model of investment. This paper examines the adjustments undertaken by Polish firms and shows that firms that did make positive net investments in this period were influenced by their capital intensity, profitability and by their costs of and returns to financial assets. The explanatory power of the model is relatively high when compared to previous studies of the investment behavior of firms in the early years of transition.     

Suppressing Asset Price Inflation: The Confederate Experience, 1861–1865

Confederate asset price stabilization policies appear to have increased the velocity of circulation and counterproductively channeled inflationary pressures into other areas of the economy. Three successive monetary reforms encouraged holders of Treasury notes to exchange these notes for bonds by imposing deadlines on their convertibility. We show that Confederate funding acts aimed at precipitating the conversion of currency into bonds did temporarily suppress currency depreciation. These acts also triggered upsurges in commodity prices, however, because note holders rushed to spend the currency before their exchange rights were reduced.     

FINANCIAL CONTAGION ON THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE NETWORK

We combine data on international trade linkages with a network approach to map the global trading system as an interdependent complex network. This enables us to obtain indicators of how well connected a country is into the global trading system. We use these network‐based measures of connectedness to explain stock market returns during recent episodes of financial crisis. We find that a crisis is amplified if the epicenter country is better integrated into the trade network. However, target countries affected by such a shock are in turn better able to dissipate the impact if they are well integrated into the network. A network approach can help explain why the Mexican, Asian, and Russian financial crises were highly contagious, while the crises that originated in Venezuela and Argentina did not have such a virulent effect. We suggest that a network approach incorporating the cascading and diffusion of interdependent ripples when a shock hits a specific part of the global trade network provides us with an improved explanation of financial contagion. (JEL F10, F36, F40, G15)     

Determinants of remittances in Egypt: Do macroeconomic instability and oil price matter?

Emigration and resulting voluminous remittance inflows have been noticeable features of the Egyptian economy since the 1960s. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of remittances – primarily the role of both macroeconomic instability and oil price – in Egypt. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure, we estimated a remittance determination equation over the period from 1980 to 2015 and found that: (1) macroeconomic instability in Egypt and increases in international oil prices promote remittances; (2) GDP growth rate in the host countries and depreciation of domestic currency spur remittances; (3) financial development is inversely related to remittances, implying that remittances and financial development are substitutes; (4) GDP growth in the home country is not significantly associated with remittances.     

Air pollution and stock returns in the US

Health related research documents that air pollution has negative mood effects. Experimental works in psychology relate bad mood to increased risk aversion. Studies in financial economics report an observed link between mood effects and stock market returns. This study therefore investigates whether the mood effects caused by air pollution can have economic implications. It examines the relationship between air pollution and stock returns using data from the Air Quality Index, and stock returns from four stock exchanges in the US. We find that air pollution is negatively related to stock returns, even when controlling for other variables. The relationship becomes weaker as the distance of the stock exchange from the polluted area increases. The results also indicate that air pollution may even affect local traders investing in securities exchanges located far from the polluted area. The findings imply that a profitable trading strategy can be constructed.     

Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?

The main goal of this paper was to examine the accuracy and confidence of financial forecasts during the 2009/2010 crisis. The study was carried out in February 2009 in Poland. The participants represented two groups: financial analysts and laypeople (people without knowledge or skills in finance). All participants were asked to forecast future stock market performance and foreign exchange rates. Additionally, they marked their confidence on a 100-point scale. The results showed that the forecasts significantly differed from the real values. In forecasting both the stock market and the currency exchange market, the prediction error significantly differed from zero. Even if the participants were optimistic in making the directional stock market forecasts, they were pessimistic when making point index predictions, which suggests a judgmental paradox. The experts were slightly better than the non-experts in predicting the stock market. However, their accuracy was generally not better in the exchange market forecasts. The next step of the analysis focused on the confidence factor. The results of this part of the research showed that the laypeople were less confident than the experts in all the judgments.     

DO TERRORIST ATTACKS IMPACT EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR? NEW INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

This study examines whether terrorist attacks affect bilateral exchange rates. Using historical 10‐minute exchange rate data for 21 countries' currency vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar, we show that exchange rate returns of all countries are statistically significantly affected by terrorist attacks. Some exchange rates appreciate and some depreciate following a terrorist attack, some currencies experience exchange rate reversals while others experience a persistent effect. Generally, the effect declines but persists as terrorist attacks become stale information. (JEL F31, F37)     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CURRENCY UNIONS

We develop a new instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the effects of different exchange rate regimes on bilateral outcomes. The basic idea is that the characteristics of the exchange rate between two countries are partially related to the independent decisions of these countries to peg—explicitly or de facto—to a third currency, notably that of a main anchor. This component of the exchange rate regime can be used as an IV in regressions of bilateral outcomes. We apply the methodology to study the economic effects of currency unions. The likelihood that two countries independently adopt the currency of the same anchor country is used as an instrument for whether they share a common currency. We find that sharing a common currency enhances trade, increases price comovements, and decreases the comovement of real gross domestic product shocks. ( JEL C3, F3, F4)     

INFLATION AND REAL STOCK RETURNS REVISITED

The article uses the (unbalanced) panel data to revisit the effects of expected inflation, unexpected inflation, and inflation uncertainty on real stock returns. The empirical results are obtained via the pooled mean group estimator, which can be applied to I (1) and/or I (0) variables, and can distinguish long- and short-run effects. Using a panel of 16 industrialized Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries over the 1957: Q 1 to 2000: Q 1 period, we find that anticipated inflation and inflation uncertainty tend to have insignificant short-run effects, while they appear to have negative long-run impacts on real stock returns. Moreover, we find coexistence of a negative long-run effect and a positive short-run effect of unanticipated inflation on real stock returns. These findings help clarify the conflicting conclusions of both empirical and theoretical studies on this issue. ( JEL C23, E31, G12)     

Roles of Stock Price and Exchange Rate in Slovakia's Money Demand Function and Policy Implications

The demand for real M1 in Slovakia is positively influenced by real output and the stock price and negatively associated with the deposit rate, depreciation of the koruna, the euro interest rate, and the expected inflation rate. Considering the goods and the money market simultaneously, these results suggest that a higher stock price may or may not cause real output to rise and that a depreciation of the koruna or a higher euro interest rate would help raise Slovakia's real output. The coefficients of the deposit rate and the stock price in real M2 demand are insignificant at the 10% level. The likelihood ratio test in the extended Box–Cox model shows that the double-log form cannot be rejected at the 5% level while the linear form can be rejected at the 5% level. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show that the money demand function was relatively stable.      

Migration and the Currency Denomination of Trade

Using a large, transaction‐level dataset of Italian exports and imports with non‐European Union countries, we assess the role of migrants’ networks in shaping the currency denomination of trade. Our results, new to the literature, show sizable, significant effects of migration on the currency denomination of trade. Generally, more migrants lead to more invoicing in the exporter's and importer's currency relative to a vehicle currency, higher educated migrants increase invoicing in the exporter's and importer's currency relative to a vehicle currency, and Italian migrants living in foreign countries have a greater impact relative to foreign migrants living in Italy.     

TESTING A PRODUCTION-BASED ASSET-PRICING MODEL

We develop a dynamic production-based asset-pricing model from the solution cf a representative firm's investment and financing problem. Nonnegative correlation between capital stocks and asset returns is accommodated, as well as equity premia arisingfrom dtfferential costs of stock versus bondfinance. Under our adjustment-costs specfication, the returns on the firm's financial instruments become linear functions of the firm's average capital productivity, its investment-capital ratio, and financial instrument-specific costs. Empirical tests using U.S. T-bill rates and common stock returns yield plausible parameter estima tes and coofrm the significance qfthesefictors.     

Time to Exchange the Exchange‐Rate Regime: Are Hard Pegs the Best Option for Low‐Income Countries?

This paper revisits the debate over the most appropriate exchange‐rate regime for low‐income countries. The debate revolves around: the effect of the exchange‐rate regime on macroeconomic management, particularly inflation; the links between the exchange‐rate regime and vulnerability to crisis (often in the form of twin banking and currency crises); and the effect on international trade and competitiveness. The theoretical and empirical literature and the views of international organisations are reviewed. It is concluded that a hard peg might constitute the most appropriate regime but this is contingent on a number of important preconditions. This view, supported by recent empirical research, is shown to be at odds with the current orthodoxy of international organisations such as the IMF.     

LEARNING ABOUT EDUCATION

Limited human capital investment is a common characteristic of low‐income countries despite the fact that estimated returns to educational investment in low‐income countries are generally higher than those in high‐income countries. Empirical evidence suggests that income and credit constraints can only account for a part of this underinvestment. Recent experimental evidence shows that families' misperceptions about the returns to education play a role in their low‐investment levels. This paper builds a heterogeneous‐agent model of human capital and growth that incorporates an adaptive learning mechanism to capture the way agents form perceptions about returns to education. We find natural conditions guaranteeing existence of stable equilibria. Along transition paths, agents' misperceptions about returns to education depress realized returns, which serves to reenforce and perpetuate low human‐capital investment. If human capital investments have both private and public returns, we find multiple stable equilibria, including those which are characterized by low investment and low returns. (JEL D83, O10, I25)     

Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Pakistani Market

Objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Event window of 31 days and an estimation window of 250 days was constructed. ARIMA model is applied to calculate the estimated returns from estimation window (t ? 250). Abnormal returns were calculated by taking the difference between actual and estimated returns. Then abnormal returns were aggregated as cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). CAR at 30% showed an impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Null hypothesis of zero abnormal returns was rejected since the results were found in critical region under normal distribution. Further, we decomposed the interest rate into expected and un-expected to analyze their impact on stock returns. After checking for stationarity, Engle–Granger co-integration test were applied to check long run relationship between interest rates and stock return. A significant effect of interest rates (expected and un-expected) was observed in the short run. These results are in line with Kuttner’s (J Monet Econ 47:523–544, 2001), Bernanke and Kuttner’s (J Financ 60:1221–1257, 2005), Bredin et al.’s (US stock returns the impact of domestic monetary policy shocks, http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp0604.pdf, 2007) and Ehrmann and Fratzscher’s (Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the Euro Area and the United States, European Central Bank Working Paper 342, 2004). The study finds evidence of LR relationship between un-expected interest rates and whereas expected interest rates and stock returns have short term relationship.