崩溃论何以再起——张军：不增长才是最大的风险

最近几个月,从美国末日博士鲁比尼＂中国经济2013年硬着陆＂开始,加上美国知名军事政治专家弗里德曼对中国＂不是崛起,而是崩溃＂的评价,以及投资大鳄索罗斯＂中国错失抑制通胀最佳时机,经济有硬着陆的风险＂等指控,新一轮中国崩溃论再起。与此同时,美国经济复苏无力,日本经济衰退,欧洲发生主权债务危机,而印度、巴西、俄罗斯等通胀压力比中国更大并伴随经济减速。     

世界经济再平衡中的中国经济走向及其政策取向

分析当前中国宏观经济运行走向及其政策取向,必须在世界经济再平衡的特殊分析框架下考察其内生性因素所起的作用。世界经济再平衡的核心是劳动力与其他要素配置的结构性矛盾。如果要实现世界经济再平衡,必须使这一结构性矛盾得以缓解。缓解这一结构性矛盾的出路,不在于迫使新兴经济体国家货币升值,而在于发达国家的劳动力市场竞争力的改善,从根本上来讲,将取决于一场目前尚无法预期的新一轮世界性技术革命的到来。因此,全球性经济复苏之路注定是漫长而曲折的。在世界经济再平衡过程中,中国经济同样受到外部冲击和内部结构性矛盾的困扰,游走在通胀与通缩的边缘,在迅速复苏的同时面临诸多压力和不确定性。因此,中国经济宏观调控与治理的取向在于预防滞胀风险,处理好短期与中长期、总量与结构的综合关系,其根本出路在于经济的转型。     

2014/2015年上海经济形势分析报告

2014年,上海经济运行总体平稳,稳中有进,预计全年GDP增速达7％,呈现与全国不完全相同的经济新常态.2015年世界经济形势依然错综复杂,美元加速升值将成为影响全球经济增长的最大因素,中国经济增长需要防范房地产市场降温、土地收入与财政收入下滑、地方政府债务上升“三碰头”等风险.在这种情况下,2015年上海经济依然存在着下行压力,同时也有有利的增长因素:一是自贸试验区改革开放进一步深化,将拉动经济增长;二是“营改增”全覆盖将进一步带动相关服务业发展;三是利率下调和房地产相关政策调整将有利于活跃股市和稳定房市.因此,经过努力,上海经济仍有可能达到7％左右的增速.     

2011年世界经济形势回顾与2012年世界经济展望

由美国次贷危机引发的全球经济危机,至今没有走出困境,总的判断是,2011年世界经济复苏的进程放缓,进入了一个长期波动和低速增长时期。2012年世界经济前景仍然不被看好,甚至有下滑的可能。在世界经济复苏乏力、通胀压力仍然较大、金融市场风险激增、欧债危机加剧、消费者和投资者信心进一步受挫、贸易保护主义有所抬头的情况下,大多经济学家都对2012年世界经济充满忧虑。     

我国地方政府性债务及其风险防范

加强地方债务风险的控制和管理是确保当前我国经济"稳中有进"方针的重要举措,要正确看待我国地方政府性债务存在的问题,通过分析其产生的原因,借鉴发达国家防范地方债务风险的经验和美国底特律市政府破产的教训,进一步完善针对地方政府融资行为的约束机制,引导地方政府合理控制债务规模。具体做法是:继续规范和清理地方融资平台;建立科学合理的地方政府性债务管理模式;充分利用民间资本缓解地方政府债务压力;建立地方干部问责制;加快财税体制改革。     

高粮价煎熬下的发展中国家

2011年国际农产品市场跌宕起伏。虽然主要粮食价格指数在去年上半年冲向历史最高值之后，呈现下降态势，但在整个2011年，粮食价格飞速上涨一直成为整个世界经济政治主要威胁，特别是广大发展中国家。世界银行近日发布的《2012年全球经济展望》指出：由于粮食价格同全球通胀形势密切相关，在全球通胀态势不明朗的前提下，2012年粮价继续震荡走扬的可能性已经攀升，仰赖进口的国家的穷人将面临更高饥荒风险，包括非洲之角在内的最贫困国家的粮食安全依然令人担忧。     

错综复杂的世界经济未来会走向哪里？

当前世界经济形势依然错综复杂。希腊退出和西班牙银行违约的风险可能造成全球经济的二次探底;德、法债权国深知欧元区存在的重要性和失去的可怕性;美国经济复苏来自于自身利益至上的考量,并不见得会给中国带来机会。为此,各国政府一定要加强国际合作和国际协调的力度,同时,要根据各国经济内在的比较优势,努力创造外部良好的开放环境,打造市场活力,确保世界投资与贸易健康成长,从而让实体经济的繁荣去吸收各国政府救市以来所创造出的大量流动性。     

当前中国宏观经济的增长与前景——2012年第3次“经济学人上海圆桌会议”综述

2012年以来,全球经济形势波诡云谲,美国高失业率、欧洲主权债务危机和新兴经济体发展趋缓等困境依然存在。受外部环境恶化和国内宏观调控的影响,中国经济呈现一系列严峻的问题表征,如有效需求下滑、生产成本上升、增长动力缺失、产能过剩加剧等,经济下行压力持续增大。在此背景下,全年经济增长的预期目标能否实现,经济运行何时筑底并向企稳回升转变,成为国内经济学界关注的焦点。     

2015年国际经济形势分析判断

2015年,全球经济形势呈现新变化.世界经济缓慢复苏,发达经济体有所分化,新兴经济体面临困境;全球贸易投资在恢复性增长中继续格局调整,须关注超大区域集团的主导力量;长期低利率下蕴含的金融风险仍在积蓄,大宗商品市场进入调整期,部分发达经济体面临通缩风险;美国量化宽松政策退出,“后QE时代”全球流动性收缩可能对新兴经济体带来冲击.     

未来30年上海外部发展环境大趋势大变革大格局

从总体看,全球经济复苏在不同程度上出现较为明显的分化.以美国为代表的西方发达国家正在日益失去世界经济的领导地位,而以中国为代表的新兴经济体逐渐赶上发达国家,推动了世界经济重心的转移.基于历史性分析和现有政治、经济、社会变量的综合考虑,全球治理结构的根本性变革可能发生在2030-2050年之间.未来30年上海发展的外部环境将更加复杂,上海迈向全球城市应秉持全面开放战略、全面创新战略、全球治理战略、绿色发展战略以及人民币国际主币化战略等.     

积极应对最复杂环境 促进经济稳定发展——2010年上半年上海经济形势分析

今年以来,全球经济继续复苏,但与此同时,欧洲爆发了债务危机,世界经济复苏不确定性增大,国内经济形势极度复杂,加剧了宏观调控的困难。由于内外部环境变化,上海经济增长动力正在减弱,迫切需要构建以服务经济为基础的新增长动力,推动经济复苏和平稳发展。     

INTENSIFYING GLOBAL DEPENDENCY: Foreign Debt, Structural Adjustment, and Third World Underdevelopment

Dependency-oriented arguments have not focused sufficient attention on the growing international debt crisis. This omission is unfortunate because foreign debt has introduced several important dynamics into the world capitalist system. Perhaps most important, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has emerged as one of the most powerful transnational financial institutions, as it makes loans to and evaluates credit worthiness of Third World states. To be acceptable credit risks, underdeveloped states often must implement a number of IMF "structural adjustment" or austerity measures. Our cross-national analysis-which includes an examination of important outliers-indicates that IMF-imposed conditionality is the primary impediment to economic expansion in the Third World. Growing service payments on the external debt also inhibit economic growth, but less so. Moreover, although structural adjustment does not yet significantly impact physical quality of life, foreign investment and level of international reserves do exhibit a negative effect on this indicator. Dependency arguments should be revised and broadened given the profound impact of the global debt crisis.     

The Systems Approach in a Global Perspective: The New Economy and Reindustrialization

The existing economic model leads developed and developing countries to a stalemate. The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 revealed the instability and fragility of the current economic model. We can observe the consequences of the crisis (and its continuation) up to the present time. The problem is worse in those economies where the real sector of the economy has been steadily declining during recent years. The great dependence of developed countries on the global financial system, and, in particular, the IMF, causes unemployment to increase, deskills the working-age population, reduces the level of social welfare and aggravates problems of social tension. As for developing countries, they face the problem of attracting investors to the real sector of the economy. The latest economic and social crisis shows the high level of interdependence and demonstrates that all national economies are a united economic system, and that sustainable development is possible only if all work together.     

人口因素如何影响中国未来经济增长

中国过去一直保持10％的经济增长速度,2010年以来人口红利消失后,潜在经济增长率马上降下来。如果我们不接受经济增长速度下降的事实,同时国际上还有强劲需求,那么我们很可能还继续保持很高的增长速度,而导致实际增长率与潜在增长率相偏离。但是欧美金融危机和主权债务危机使得国际需求下降,这反而给我们一个进行速度调整的机会,换句话说就是我国被迫接受调整。这是促进我国经济健康发展的一个意外之喜。因此,不应该通过拉动需求来使经济发展超越潜在增长率,但这并不意味着潜在增长率不可以提高。在人口红利消失、劳动力成本提高的背景下,可以通过提高劳动力供给和提高劳动生产率来提高潜在经济增长率。     

2014年世界经济前瞻

2013年的国际经济复苏依旧缓慢,美国经济复苏尚无起色及“财政悬崖”处于僵持状态,欧洲经历了比预期更深更漫长的衰退,日本在劳动力市场和产品市场方面仍需要进一步改革,新兴经济体经济增长放缓。2014年世界经济总体趋于改善,发达经济体经济增长势头可望持续．其中美国经济调整渐现成效。欧盟经济也走出债务危机引发的衰退,日本经济正逐步走出通缩．但面临的外部环境变得更具挑战性。     

The restructuring of the U.K. financial services industry in the 1990s: a reversal of fortune?

Whereas for much of the 1980s the financial services industry was characterised by growth and expansion, the late 1980s and early 1990s was a period of redundancies and financial losses. This paper seeks to explain this reversal of fortune and the responses of the financial services industry. The restructuring of the financial System at a global level, through a process of disintermediation, and at a national level, in response to financial re-regulation, led to an intensification of competition between financial institutions and helped produce a developed countries debt crisis, founded in personal and corporate indebtedness. In the wake of this crisis, the financial services industry has been in transition. Bureaucratic labour market models have been overturned in favour of more flexible variants, while at the same time many financial services firms have engaged in the wholesale spatial reorganisation of their activities. One important consequence has been a process of ‘financial infrastructure withdrawal’, by which services and operations are withdrawn from certain social groups and certain localities. This process, which revolves around a rubric of risk reduction and a ‘flight to quality’, has introduced an element of exclusion and closure to the operation of financial Systems within developed countries. In this sense, the reaction of the financial services industry to the developed countries debt crisis mirrors that which followed the less developed countries debt crisis of the early 1980s; that is, abandonment and retreat to a more affluent client base. As was the case during the less developed countries debt crisis, the current process of financial infrastructure withdrawal has serious social and economic implications for those social groups and localities abandoned by the financial community.     

Child and Family Policies in a Time of Economic Crisis

At the beginning of 2008, a number of the world’s major economies began to experience the effects of the biggest economic financial crisis in history. By the end of that year, the financial crisis was a global recession, and governments responded with changes to a suite of social and economic policies. Two broad stages of government response are identifiable: a period of stimulus followed by a move towards austerity. This study views the crisis period from the perspective of children and family policies and assesses the justification for the changes in the economic context and in the context of the recommendations for spending on children outlined in Doing Better for Children (OECD, 2009) of early investment with a focus on at‐risk children. Across Europe, with few exceptions, child and family policies have more often than not avoided direct cuts; cash benefits are most often amended (and subject to temporary reduction in coverage or amounts); and (so far) during the crisis child and family policies continue to be advanced in many European countries.     

The executive committee of the Greek Professional Association of Social Work in an age of austerity: examining its response

This paper explores the response by the Greek Association of Social Workers (SKLE) to Greece's current economic crisis. Socioeconomic conditions in Greece have deteriorated rapidly since the imposition of a Structural Adjustment Programme as a condition of the loan Troika provided to Greece to address its class-based public debt crisis. Interviews were conducted with SKLE Executive Committee members to examine SKLE's response in the context of newly raised inequalities. Research results show that SKLE recognised the negative consequences to both service users and its members. However, SKLE continues to reformulate its strategy mostly as a social partner. SKLE's previous strategy entailed amongst other things the analysis of policy proposals and participation in welfare related government committees. This strategy is no longer relevant because decision-making powers have been transferred to transnational bodies. This paper elaborates on these findings and discusses the barriers that prohibit SKLE from differentiation of its strategy. Although the research is country specific, it has implications for the broader global debate because professional associations must reformulate their strategies for better serving of both their constituents and the collective good based on the social justice mandate of the profession.     

当前国内外经济全局变化及未来趋势展望

当前国际经济金融形势极为复杂。金融危机使全球的治理结构面临重大调整,各国转型发展的压力增大,对市场、资源、标准的竞争更加激烈。同时,我国逐步进入国际体系的核心部位,机遇增大,但挑战更大。2011年,中国经济可归纳为＂五大目标实现＂和＂三大风险缓解＂。2012年,中国宏观金融政策总体上稳中求进。同时,通过分析中国经济内外推动因素,对今后10年中国宏观经济发展作出趋势预判。     

Ethical crises in the international political economy

The Icelandic banking crisis provides a useful example of how the global economic downturn transformed into a domestic crisis and then transformed again into an international conflict. Rather than a strict economic analysis, discussion around the economic causes and potential cures surrounding the Icelandic banking crisis have been framed in terms of ethics. The analysis shows that ethical paradigms based on consequences, in line with Kant's hypothetical imperative, do not align well with categorical imperatives based on duty when considering international political conflicts. It is unclear that any accounting would have the potential to achieve reconciliation.