Religious fertility differentials in Thailand, 1960

Abstract Although the evidence supporting high fertility in Thailand is clear-cut, little is known about fertility differentials within the population. As part of a larger investigation, a special 1 % tabulation of the 1960 Thai census data on number of children ever-born to married women has been analysed to determine the extent of differentials by religion and urban-rural status. The findings point to considerable differentials among Buddhists, Moslems, and Confucianists. Standardizing for age, the number of children ever-born to 12/loslems averaged well below the number born to Buddhists. Confucian fertility was intermediate. Within specific age groups, the number of children ever-born to Moslem women was considerably below the Buddhist average and the differentials were sharper in the higher age groups. By contrast, Confucian fertility was highest of all in the age groups under 35, but lower than the Buddhist averages among older women. Significant urban-rural differentials also exist. For both the Buddhist and the Confucian women, fertility is markedly lower in urban than in rural categories. When controlling for both age and urban-rural status, Buddhist and Confucian differences tend to be minimal. By contrast, Moslem fertility was highest in the most urban category - Bangkok - but was considerably lower and substantially below the fertility levels of Buddhists and Confucianists in all other urban-rural categories. The census data in themselves do not permit adequate analysis of the reasons for the differentials. Later age at marriage in urban places may be a significant factor in accounting for the overall differentials in urban-rural fertility ; but this relation is much less clear for specific religious groups, particularly since Moslems marry at a considerably earlier age. More frequent divorce and remarriage may lower Moslem rates. Poorer health may also be a factor.     

Race,Remarital Status,and Infertility in 1910: More Evidence of Multiple Causes

The dominant approach to studying historical race-related fertility differences has been to limit samples to first-married and younger women. We argue that studying historical race-related fertility differences in the context of remarriage is also important: remarriage and fertility patterns are both rooted in the biosocial conditions that produce racial disparities in health. We employ a multiple causes framework that attributes variation in fertility patterns to voluntary limitation and involuntary factors (infecundity/subfecundity). We use data from the 1910 Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and estimate zero-inflated negative binomial models that simultaneously distinguish those who are infecund (vs. fecund) and estimate the number of remarital births among the fecund. Our approach allows us to evaluate historical remarital (in)fertility differences, accounting for marital, socioeconomic, and geographic influences on fecundity and fertility, while empirically accounting for the influence of children “missing” from the household due to mortality and fostering/aging out. Consistent with past studies that emphasized poorer African American health as a major influence on involuntary infertility, we find that African American women were more likely than white women to be in the always-zero (infecund) group and to have fewer remarital births. Supplemental analyses nuance these findings but indicate that these results are robust. Overall, we find support for a multiple-causes perspective: while the findings are consistent with the adoption of deliberate fertility control among urban and higher-status women at higher parities, remarital fertility differences in 1910 also reflected greater infecundity/subfecundity among subgroups of women, especially African American women.     

Marital dissolution,remarriage, and childbearing

Earlier models of fertility hypothesize that marital dissolution and remarriage influence subsequent childbearing. This issue is examined by comparing the fertility of those in disrupted marriages with that of those in stable marriages. The results indicate that, by transferring women into a nonmarried status, marital dissolution decreases childbearing. The data also suggest that discord reduces fertility even before separation occurs—separated women had reduced fertility during the two years just before separation. It was found that marital dissolution without remarriage operates to truncate childbearing, thus decreasing family size. Dissolution followed by remarriage, however, lengthens the childbearing span of whites and has no influence on average family size; remarrying white women are able to make up for the childbearing lost between marriages. For nonwhites, we found that dissolution and remarriage increase the average time to childbirth, but, even more importantly, these events greatly decrease the number of children born.     

The growth of families headed by women: 1950–1980

In recent decades, the number of families headed by women has increased dramatically. In this article, we use U.S. census data from 1950 to 1980 to consider the extent to which population growth, fertility change, decreased marriage, increased divorce, and increased household headship have contributed to the growth of female-headed families. For white women, the major source of growth during the 1960s and 1970s was an increase in the number of formerly married mothers due to increased divorce and decreased remarriage. There is a similar pattern for black women for the 1960-1970 period. During the 1970-1980 decade, however, the major source of growth for black women was an increase in the number of never-married mothers due to decreased marriage and increased fertility among nonmarried women.     

American fertility in transition: New estimates of birth rates in the United States, 1900–1910

This article presents new estimates of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates for the entire United States for the period 1900-1910. The estimation techniques are the two-census parity increment method and the own-children method. The data sources are the 1900 census public use sample and tabulations of 1910 census fertility data published with the 1940 census. Estimates are made for the total population, whites, native-born whites, foreign-born whites, and blacks. Low age-specific marital fertility at younger ages is consistent with a view of a distinctive American fertility pattern at this time.     

The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States

The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.     

African-American marriage in 1910: Beneath the surface of census data

This paper examines the quality of information about marital status, marital duration, and marriage order among African-American women in the U.S. Census of 1910. It compares the reported prevalence of widowhood to estimates of widowhood based on the mortality of black men and on the ages of women at first marriage. It also compares the reported distributions of duration of first marriage to estimates based on mortality and on age at first marriage. It concludes that census reports are subject to serious error. Widowhood is overreported, and marital turnover appears to have been faster than implied by census reports. The prevalance of "own children" is used to confirm these conclusions and to suggest motivations for misreporting.     

Estimation of vital rates for Ghana

Abstract A complete and efficient registration system, of the type which would provide good data on births and deaths, does not exist in Ghana. However, registration of vital events is supposed to be compulsory in 39 towns in the country but the data collected in these areas are too inadequate and defective to provide a sound basis for the analysis of the dynamics of population growth. The results of the censuses conducted by the colonial governments are so defective and unreliable that they do not allow scientific research in the field of population analysis. Before 1960, therefore, when the national census and the post-enumeration survey (based on a 5% sample of the population) were carried out, estimates of fertility and mortality levels were little more than guesses. In this study an attempt has been made to utilize the information on the age-sex composition provided by the 1960 census and post-enumeration survey data on births and deaths to determine, as far as possible, the levels of fertility and mortality and the rates of population growth in Ghana. The fertility estimates-i.e. a crude birth rate of 50, total fertility rate of 6.9 and a gross reproduction rate of 3.4-show that Ghana's fertility is one of the highest in the world. An expectation of life at birth of 40 years, an infant mortality of 160 and a crude death rate of 23 appear to be the most plausible estimates. These estimates yield a rate of natural increase of 2.7% and a growth rate of 3.0% per annum.     

The Decline of Fertility in Los Angeles,California, 1880–1900

Data from the 1900 U.S. Census of Population show that fertility in Los Angeles California, declined by more than 50 per cent between 1880 and 1900. Women's mean age at first marriage, which rose by approximately three years, contributed to the decline, but change in marital fertility was more important than change in nuptiality. Although the fertility of in-migrating U.S.-born women was lower than that of California-born women, the decline was not explained by in-migration. The emergence of a class differential in fertility, with couples of higher status having fewer children than those of lower status, and the simultaneous weakening of class differentials in secondary-school attendance, together suggest that the rise of universal secondary schooling probably did not account for the marital fertility decline experienced in middle- and upper-status families.     

Fertility of the Yi women in Liangshan]

An attempt is made to determine the causes for the high fertility rate of the Yi women in Liangshan, China. The Yi are one of China's 54 ethnic groups, the largest group of which are the Hans (making up 95% of China's population). The area surveyed was Liangshan Yi County, having a population of 1.4 million. The survey included Yi women between the ages of 13-29 and compared them on the basis of previously gathered fertility statistics dealing with 1st and 2nd marriages and changes in household arrangements. According to a 1980 report, 16.37% of 36,302 infants of Yi women were the 1st child, 20.33% were the 2nd, 19.05% were the 3rd, 16.55% were the 4th, and 27.36% were the 5th child. These figures show that the Yi women's fertility is still extremely high (and has been for the last 15 years). Their fertility rate is 3.03 times higher than that of the Han women and 1.5 times higher than the national average for women. Possible causes for this rate may be early marriage (the average age for marriage being 19), divorce, and remarriage, and changes in household arrangements (where married women cohabit with men other than their husbands). These findings indicate a great need for family planning in order to prevent further adverse effects on economic growth, living standards, and public health (e.g., malnutrition has been found among some babies).     

Annual fertility rates from census data on own children: Comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States

This paper begins by describing the procedure and data requirements for calculating annual fertility rates from census data on own children. Then, using data from the United States Censuses of 1960 and 1970, fully adjusted estimates are presented and compared with recorded vital statistics rates. Total fertility estimates derived from own children data for whites average less than two percent lower than the recorded rates- a difference that can be attributed partially to the fact that the estimates are adjusted for net census undercount but the recorded rates are not. Even without adjustments for mortality, children not living with their mothers, and net census undercount, the own children data estimates accurately replicate recorded trends (even though the levels are misspecified). The utility of own children data for the study of differential fertility is discussed.     

Sex differences in remarriage and spouse selection

This paper explores on an international basis the incidence of remarriage among total marriages, the levels and differences in remarriage rates among widowed and divorced males and females, and differences between males and females in spouse selection according to the previous marital statuses of spouse and bride or groom. Remarriage rates by sex and previous marital status are estimated using vital registration data in combination with census information; there are 47 countries that have such data. The results of the analyses indicate that there are a number of general patterns of remarriage and spouse selection that tend to hold across countries.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

Determinants Of Cumulative Fertility In Ghana

The relatively few studies conducted on fertility differentials in Ghana have not controlled for the effect of important demographic variables, such as age at first marriage and current age of respondent. This paper attempts a multivariate analysis of the relationship between cumulative fertility and age at first marriage, level of education, religion, form of marriage and residence of husband. Data drawn from a census sample survey in 1971 include 72,816 currently married females aged 15–49 years. Age at first marriage was inversely related to cumulative fertility. The differentials were more pronounced for older women. Among the older women, the differentials were larger for rural than urban women. There were also significant fertility differentials associated with level of education, religion and form of marriage. Husband’s residence was a poor predictor of cumulative fertility. As a policy measure, it is suggested that priority be given to providing young women with more education or employment opportunities as an alternative to early marriage.     

Marriage markets and nonmarital fertility in the United States

We merge census microdata with vital statistics data to examine the effect of women's marriage opportunities on nonmarital fertility rates and ratios across 75 U.S. metropolitan areas. Measures of the quantity and "quality" of marriageable men simultaneously specific for women's age, race, education, and place of residence reveal especially poor marriage prospects for highly educated black women. The effect of mate availability on nonmarital fertility is generally modest. Among white women, marriage opportunities are associated inversely with the nonmarital fertility rate, perhaps reflecting an increased likelihood that a premarital conception will be legitimated. Marriage opportunities also reduce nonmarital fertility ratios for young black and white women. The nonmarital fertility rate is lower among women whose marriage pool includes a large percentage of nonemployed males. Only a small proportion of the racial difference in nonmarital fertility appears attributable to differences in the marriage markets of black and of white women.     

Childbearing within Marriage and Consensual Union in Latin America, 1980–2010

This article compares the fertility patterns of women in consensual union and marriage in 13 Latin American countries, using census microdata from the four most recent census rounds and a methodological approach that combines the own‐children method and Poisson regression. Results show that in all these countries, fertility is slightly higher within consensual union than marriage and that the age pattern of fertility is very similar in marital and non‐marital unions. Further analyses show that over the period considered, childbearing within a consensual union has changed from rare to increasingly common, although not yet mainstream, for highly educated women in most countries examined. Results show that in Latin America, at least since the 1980s, women's childbearing patterns depend on their age and on their being in a conjugal relationship, but not on the legal nature of this relationship. The similarities in reproductive behavior between marital and non‐marital unions are not confined to the socially disadvantaged groups, but apply as well to the better off.     

The completeness of enumeration in the 1973 census of the population of Colombia

The effort is made to determine the true size and distribution by age and sex of the population of the Republic of Colombia in October 1973. After initially arriving at estimates of the levels of fertility and mortality during the intercensal period and then correcting the 1964 census population for age misreporting and selective undernumeration of males, a hypothetical populaiton corresponding to October 1973 is constructed. Comparing the constructed population with the population observed in the census yelds an estimate of completeness of enumeration in 1973 that is relative to the enumeration of females in 1964. This estimate is obtained under the assumption that net international migration during the period was of negligible importance. As there is reason to believe that this is not a valid assumption and upon examining the limited amount of evidence available, speculaitons are made concerning the amount of net out-migration to have occurred during the 1964-1973 period and the size of the coresponding modificaiton in the estimate of completeness of enumeration. After adjusting for underenumeration of males in 1964 and neglecting the impact of international migration, a theoretical 1973 census population of 23,201,000 was estimated. Apart from the total number of people enumerated, the information that was analyzed from the advance sample appears to be of good quality, at least in relation to prior censuses. The estimates of fertility and mortality reveal an important decline in Colombian fertility. By coming up with separate estimates of infant and childhood and adult mortality, it has been possible to shed new light on the shape and the level of mortality in Colombia. The new Brass method for estimating adult mortality provides reliable results even when mortality has been declining, and there are recognizable distortions in the distribution of the population by age.     

Fertility estimation from open birth-interval data*

Censuses and surveys frequently collect information on period fertility through questions on the timing of last births. The standard approach to estimating fertility with open-interval data uses the proportion of women giving birth in the year before the interview. I propose a more efficient, maximum likelihood method for estimating fertility from open-interval data. I illustrate a mathematical derivation of the new method, perform sensitivity analyses, and conduct empirical tests with Brazilian census data. The new estimators have small biases and lower variance than standard estimators for open-interval data. Consequently, the new method is more likely to generate accurate results from small or moderately sized samples.     

Assessing the Predictive Value of Fertility Expectations Through a Cognitive–Social Model

This paper grounds its analysis in a novel model (Bachrach and Morgan in Popul Dev Rev, 39:459–485, 2013) that suggests that responses to questions about fertility intentions may reflect distinct phenomena at distinct points in the life course. The model suggests that women form "true" intentions when their circumstances make the issue of childbearing salient and urgent enough to draw the cognitive resources needed to make a conscious plan; before this, women report intentions based on cognitive images of family and self. We test the implications of this model for reported fertility expectations using NLSY79 data that measure expectations throughout the life course. We find that early in the life course, before marriage and parenthood, women’s fertility expectations are associated with family background and cognitive images of family and future self. Later in the life course, as women experience life course transitions that confer statuses normatively associated with childbearing—such as marriage—and parenthood itself, their reported expectations are better predictors of their fertility than before they passed these life course milestones. Our empirical results provide support for a model which has important implications for both the measurement and conceptualization of women’s intended and expected fertility.