Expansions for log densities of asymptotically normal estimates

Edgeworth–type expansions are given for the log density and also for the derivatives of the density of an asymptotically normal random variable having the standard expansions for its cumulants. Expansions for the log density are much simpler than for the density. In fact the rth term of the expansion for the log density is a polynomial of degree only r + 2, while that for the density is a polynomial of degree 3r.     

A Bayesian analysis for the Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic

A Bayesian analysis is provided for the Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic (T⁺). The Bayesian analysis is based on a sign-bias parameter φ on the (0, 1) interval. For the case of a uniform prior probability distribution for φ and for small sample sizes (i.e., 6 ? n ? 25), values for the statistic T⁺ are computed that enable probabilistic statements about φ. For larger sample sizes, approximations are provided for the asymptotic likelihood function P(T⁺|φ) as well as for the posterior distribution P(φ|T⁺). Power analyses are examined both for properly specified Gaussian sampling and for misspecified non Gaussian models. The new Bayesian metric has high power efficiency in the range of 0.9–1 relative to a standard t test when there is Gaussian sampling. But if the sampling is from an unknown and misspecified distribution, then the new statistic still has high power; in some cases, the power can be higher than the t test (especially for probability mixtures and heavy-tailed distributions). The new Bayesian analysis is thus a useful and robust method for applications where the usual parametric assumptions are questionable. These properties further enable a way to do a generic Bayesian analysis for many non Gaussian distributions that currently lack a formal Bayesian model.     

Weighted A-optimality for fractional 2m factorial designs of resolution V

A weighted A-optimality (WA-optimality) criterion is discussed for selecting a fractional 2^m factorial design of resolution V. A WA-optimality criterion having one weight may be considered for designs. It is shown that designs derived from orthogonal arrays are WA-optimal for any weight. From a WA-optimal design, a procedure for finding WA-optimal designs for various weights is given. WA-optimal balanced designs are presented for 4 ⩽ m ⩽ 7 and for the values of n assemblies in certain ranges. It is pointed out that designs for m = 7 and for n = 41, 42 given in Chopra and Srivastava (1973a) or in the corrected paper by Chopra et al. (1986), are not A-optimal.     

COVARIANCES FOR FIXED INTERVAL SMOOTHED KALMAN FILTER PARAMETER ESTIMATES

Given time series data for fixed interval t= 1,2,…, M with non-autocorrelated innovations, the regression formulae for the best linear unbiased parameter estimates at each time t are given by the Kalman filter fixed interval smoothing equations. Formulae for the variance of such parameter estimates are well documented. However, formulae for covariance between these fixed interval best linear parameter estimates have previously been derived only for lag one. In this paper more general formulae for covariance between fixed interval best linear unbiased estimates at times t and t - l are derived for t= 1,2,…, M and l= 0,1,…, t - 1. Under Gaussian assumptions, these formulae are also those for the corresponding conditional covariances between the fixed interval best linear unbiased parameter estimates given the data to time M. They have application, for example, in determination via the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm of exact maximum likelihood parameter estimates for ARMA processes expressed in statespace form when multiple observations are available at each time point.     

Critical values of Mandel’s h and k, the Grubbs and the Cochran test statistic

According to ISO 5725-2 (1994), measurement results obtained in an interlaboratory experiment are inspected for consistency by plotting Mandel’s h and k statistics and for outliers by application of the Grubbs test and the Cochran test. Critical values of these statistics for significance levels α=5% and α=1% and for some numbers p of laboratories and n of repeated measurements in the laboratories are supplied in ISO 5725-2 without reference to methods for their calculation. In this paper, exact formulae for the critical values of Mandel’s h and k and approximate formulae for the critical values of the Single Grubbs test, the Double Grubbs test and the Cochran test are derived.     

The covariance of the number of renewals in a fixed time and the ensuing excess life

The covariance of the number of renewals in a fixed time N ^t and the ensuing excess life time Y ^t is derived using matrix-analytic methods for the stationary PH-renewal process. Specific results for the Erlang and hyperexponential processes are provided to illustrate the ease of computation. Properties concerning the sign and the behavior of the covariance as t→∞ are provided throughout. Parameter estimation for renewal processes which cannot be fully observed serves as the motivation for our derivations. These statistical applications as well as links to estimation for service time distributions in queues shed light on the type of problems for which the covariance is useful.     

Improved approaches to interval estimation of effective doses for a logistic dose-response curve

Asymptotic confidence (delta) intervals and intervals based upon the use of Fieller's theorem are alternative methods for constructing intervals for the <$>\gamma<$>% effective doses (ED<$>_\gamma<$>). Sitter and Wu (1993) provided a comparison of the two approaches for the ED<$>_{50}<$>, for the case in which a logistic dose response curve is assumed. They showed that the Fieller intervals are generally superior. In this paper, we introduce two new families of intervals, both of which include the delta and Fieller intervals as special cases. In addition we consider interval estimation of the ED<$>_{90}<$> as well as the ED<$>_{50}<$>. We provide a comparison of the various methods for the problem of constructing a confidence interval for the ED<$>_\gamma<$>.     

Implications of random cut‐points theory for the Mann‐Whitney and binomial tests

Through random cut‐points theory, the author extends inference for ordered categorical data to the unspecified continuum underlying the ordered categories. He shows that a random cut‐point Mann‐Whitney test yields slightly smaller p‐values than the conventional test for most data. However, when at least P% of the data lie in one of the k categories (with P = 80 for k = 2, P = 67 for k = 3,…, P = 18 for k = 30), he also shows that the conventional test can yield much smaller p‐values, and hence misleadingly liberal inference for the underlying continuum. The author derives formulas for exact tests; for k = 2, the Mann‐Whitney test is but a binomial test.     

A-optimal designs for heteroscedastic multifactor regression models

Abstract

This paper searches for A-optimal designs for Kronecker product and additive regression models when the errors are heteroscedastic. Sufficient conditions are given so that A-optimal designs for the multifactor models can be built from A-optimal designs for their sub-models with a single factor. The results of an efficiency study carried out to check the adequacy of the products of optimal designs for uni-factor marginal models when these are used to estimate different multi-factor models are also reported.     

Minimum and Maximum Information Censoring Plans in Progressive Censoring

Expressions for the entropy, the Kullback-Leibler information, and the I _α-information are established for distributions of progressively Type-II censored order statistics. These results are used to identify minimum and maximum information censoring plans. In particular, we find minimum and maximum entropy plans for DFR, exponential, Pareto, reflected power, and Weibull distributions. The results for Kullback-Leibler and I _α-information hold for any continuous distribution.     

Variance-stabilizing and Confidence-stabilizing Transformations for the Normal Correlation Coefficient with Known Variances

Fosdick and Raftery (2012) recently encountered the problem of inference for a bivariate normal correlation coefficient ρ with known variances. We derive a variance-stabilizing transformation y(ρ) analogous to Fisher’s classical z-transformation for the unknown-variance case. Adjusting y for the sample size n produces an improved “confidence-stabilizing” transformation y_n(ρ) that provides more accurate interval estimates for ρ than the known-variance MLE. Interestingly, the z transformation applied to the unknown-but-equal-variance MLE performs well in the known-variance case for smaller values of |ρ|. Both methods are useful for comparing two or more correlation coefficients in the known-variance case.     

Construction of closed interval for process capability indices Cpu,Cpl, and Spk based on Boole’s inequality and de Morgan’s laws

ABSTRACT

Considerable effort has been spent on the development of confidence intervals for process capability indices (PCIs) based on the sampling distribution of the PCI or the transferred PCI. However, there is still no definitive way to construct a closed interval for a PCI. The aim of this study is to develop closed intervals for the PCIs C_pu, C_pl, and S_pk based on Boole's inequality and de Morgan's laws. The relationships between different sample sizes, the significance levels, and the confidence intervals of the PCIs C_pu, C_pl, and S_pk are investigated. Then, a testing model for interval estimation for the PCIs C_pu, C_pl, and S_pk is built as a powerful tool for measuring the quality performance of a product. Finally, an applied example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method and the testing model.     

Optimal row–column design for three treatments

The A-optimality problem is solved for three treatments in a row–column layout. Depending on the numbers of rows and columns, the requirements for optimality can be decidedly counterintuitive: replication numbers need not be as equal as possible, and trace of the information matrix need not be maximal. General rules for comparing 3×3$3\times 3$ information matrices for their A-behavior are also developed, and the A-optimality problem is also solved for three treatments in simple block designs.     

Saturated designs for multivariate cubic regression

This paper deals with the problem of finding saturated designs for multivariate cubic regression on a cube which are nearly D-optimal. A finite class of designs is presented for the k dimensional cube having the property that the sequence of the best designs in this class for each k is asymptotically efficient as k increases. A method for constructing good designs in this class is discussed and the construction is carried out for 1?k?8. These numerical results are presented in the last section of the paper.     

Multiple comparisons for an unbalanced a × b design under mixed models with interaction

Consider a two-way factorial experiment involving a “treatment” factor A with fixed effects, a “blocking” factor B with random effects, and interaction effects perhaps non-negligible. The degree of balance required for multiple comparison procedures to be applicable for the comparison of the treatment effects using ordinary least-squares estimates is investigated. For main effects to be estimated independently of MSAB, a sufficient condition is that the design consist of identical blocks, a strong condition of proportional frequencies. Surprisingly, under this condition of proportional frequencies, MSAB does not provide an appropriate variance estimate for inferences on each treatment contrast, even though the statistics F = MSA/MSAB is appropriate for testing equality of the treatment effects. In short, when factor B is random, standard methods of multiple comparisons apply using the interaction mean square MSAB as a variance estimator only when the treatment-block incidences n_n are constant. Nevertheless, for designs with identical blocks, appropriate variance estimates can be identified to allow for conservative or approximate multiple comparisons. This is illustrated for certain treatment balanced designs for comparisons with a control.     

Numerical computation of rectangular bivariate and trivariate normal and t probabilities

Algorithms for the computation of bivariate and trivariate normal and t probabilities for rectangles are reviewed. The algorithms use numerical integration to approximate transformed probability distribution integrals. A generalization of Plackett's formula is derived for bivariate and trivariate t probabilities. New methods are described for the numerical computation of bivariate and trivariate t probabilities. Test results are provided, along with recommendations for the most efficient algorithms for single and double precision computations.     

Asymptotic calculations of functions of expected values and covariances of order statistics

Suppose m and V are respectively the vector of expected values and the covariance matrix of the order statistics of a sample of size n from a continuous distribution F. A method is presented to calculate asymptotic values of functions of m and V ^–1, for distributions F which are sufficiently regular. Values are given for the normal, logistic, and extreme-value distributions; also, for completeness, for the uniform and exponential distributions, although for these other methods must be used.     

Optimal U-type design for Bayesian nonparametric multiresponse prediction

This paper presents an extension of the work of Yue and Chatterjee (2010) about U-type designs for Bayesian nonparametric response prediction. We consider nonparametric Bayesian regression model with p responses. We use U-type designs with n runs, m factors and q levels for the nonparametric multiresponse prediction based on the asymptotic Bayesian criterion. A lower bound for the proposed criterion is established, and some optimal and nearly optimal designs for the illustrative models are given.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for exponentiality based on a loss-of-memory type functional equation

Three goodness-of-fit tests for exponentiality based on the functional equation characterization 1?F(2x)=[1?F(x)]² for every x?0 are proposed and shown to compare well to several popular tests against common alternative cdf's. Small-sample critical values for α=0.10,0.05 are developed for the two superior test statistics and the asymptotic null-distributions are characterized.     

Fitting the additive model by recursion on dimension

We consider estimation for the homoscedastic additive model for multiple regression. A recursion is proposed in Opsomer (1999), and independently by the authors, for obtaining the estimators that solve the normal equations given by Hastie and Tibshirani (1990). The recursion can be exploited to obtain the asymptotic bias and variance expressions of the estimators for any p > 2 (Opsomer 1999) using repeated application of Opsomer and Ruppert (1997). Opsomer and Ruppert (1997) provide asymptotic bias and variance for the estimators when p = 2. Opsomer (1999) also uses the recursion to provide sufficient conditions for convergence of the backfitting algorithm to a unique solution of the normal equations. However, since explicit expressions for the solution to the normal equations are not given, he states, “The lemma does not provide a practical way of evaluating the existence and uniqueness of the backfitting estimators … ”. In this paper, explicit expressions for the estimators are derived. The explicit solution requires inverses of n × n matrices to solve the np × np system of normal equations. These matrix inverses are feasible to implement for moderate sample sizes and can be used in place of the backfitting algorithm.