上海外来劳动力与本地劳动力补缺替代关系研究

90年代以来 ,上海的劳动力市场发生了显著变化 ,一方面本地下岗待业劳动力日见增多 ,与此同时又有数以百万计的外来劳动力涌入就业 ,本地劳动力下岗待业与外来劳动力“上岗”就业同时并存发展 ,构成了上海劳动力市场的一个重要特征。本文主要从上海劳动力市场的需求发展及分层特征、上海本地劳动力的供给规模及劳动供给行为特征、外来劳动力的基本属性及劳动供给行为特征等几个方面 ,对上海外来劳动力与本地劳动力的补缺、替代关系进行了比较深入的探讨 ,得出了一些很有意义的结论     

劳动力市场的职业隔离——基于浙江省的分析

本文运用2000年浙江省人口普查数据,结合浙江省第二次农业普查资料,从职业隔离的角度验证了浙江劳动力市场存在城乡分割与地域分割,其中职业获得的城乡分割表现在农业与非农户口劳动力之间,而地域分割主要表现在省外与省内劳动力之间;非农本地劳动力与其他五类劳动力之间存在具有"分割梯度效应"的职业隔离。     

市场潜能、有效边界与中国劳动力市场效率

文章基于新经济地理学D-S理论框架与空间计量方法,采用2012-2014年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)微观样本和省域面板数据构建多层次回归模型,从劳动者工资和就业二元视角界定我国劳动力市场的市场潜能空间边界。研究发现在全域空间上,市场潜能显著提升了我国劳动者工资和就业水平,给劳动力市场带来"双重利好";在局域空间上,随着省域间隔距离增加,市场潜能难以持续发挥对劳动力市场的空间效应,在一定半径范围呈现出"边界效应"。分组来看,市场潜能对沿海地区的工资增收效应最大,其次是沿边和内陆地区,对于就业水平的改善在内陆地区最为显著;扩大市场潜能将有助于缩小高、低人力资本聚集区域的工资水平差距,改善低人力资本区域和群体的就业水平,不过市场潜能对高、低人力资本群体产生了工资"临界分割效应";高速铁路相对于普通铁路产生的"地理收缩效应"进一步提升了市场潜能对劳动者就业的边际增长效应,对劳动者工资边际增长效应弱于普通铁路时期,但整体效应仍然显著为正。综合而言,突破市场潜能有效边界进行"空间重塑"以及在有效边界内进行"空间修复",有效调节地区之间由于市场潜能差异而导致的工资水平和就业增长的差距,从而从整体上提升我国劳动力市场效率。     

城市房价对劳动力流入的动态效应研究

城市高质量发展需要劳动力的持续供给,城市房价是影响劳动力流入的重要因素。文章首先从理论上证明,城市房价对劳动力流入存在短期抑制效应和长期促进效应,并且会通过城市公共服务进行调节。随后利用2004～2018年地级市面板数据进行实证考察,结果表明：第一,城市房价对劳动力流入存在显著的动态效应,即短期抑制效应和长期促进效应。该结论在考虑了内生性问题以后,依然成立。第二,相对于小城市而言,大中城市的房价对劳动力流入在长期内具有显著促进效应。第三,相对于中西部城市而言,东部地区城市的房价对劳动力流入在长期内具有显著促进效应。第四,在短期城市房价更有利于促进本市移民和本省外市移民,而在长期则更有利于本省外市移民和外省移民。第五,城市房价对劳动力流入的影响主要通过更好的城市公共服务而得到调节。因此,在高质量发展阶段,为了促进城市高质量发展,需要实现劳动力在城市间合理流动,以满足城市高质量发展过程中劳动力需求。     

“机器换人”时代低技能劳动力何去何从?——基于中国劳动力动态调查数据的检验

基于中国劳动力动态调查与海关进口机器人数据等,考察了机器人对低技能劳动力跨市流出的影响机制,并讨论了低技能劳动力的行业和区位流向。结果表明,机器人减少了第二产业就业岗位数,对低技能劳动力产生了替代效应,显著增加了低技能劳动力跨市流出的概率;行业转移层面,机器人增加了45岁及以下低技能劳动力流入服务业和45岁以上低技能劳动力流入农林牧渔业的概率;城市转移层面,机器人增加了低技能劳动力流入本市服务业和跨市流入一线城市服务业的概率;区域转移层面,受教育程度较高的低技能劳动力在东部流动,而受教育程度较低的低技能劳动力出现了流入西部的趋势。这些研究结论对于深入把握机器人对劳动力就业转移的影响、制定合理的机器人产业政策及人口流动政策具有一定的指导意义。     

农民工对城市本地劳动力的就业替代模型及其实证分析

文章运用微观经济学理论,在阐释农民工进城的替代效应的基础上,探索构建了两类劳动力替代关系的计量模型,并利用2000年人口普查资料进行实证分析。结果表明,中国城市中被农民工替代的岗位数占城市本地劳动力的7.2%,占农民工总量的33.6%;农民工与城市本地劳动力之间高度互补、小幅替代,并且不同性别、受教育程度、职业间的替代程度存在显著差异,劳动力市场分割严重。     

城市本地和农村外来劳动力的失业风险--来自上海等五城市的发现

文章利用2001年中国城市劳动力市场调查数据进行失业的Logistic回归分析,结果发现,相对于城市本地劳动力,农村外来劳动力的失业风险更低.但是,这种"优势"依然折射出外来劳动力在城市劳动力市场上的劣势地位.     

外来劳动力对城市本地劳动力市场的影响--"武汉调查"的基本框架与主要发现

中国大城市劳动力市场中基于户籍制度的分层现象,为不少学者所关注.近年来,大城市劳动力市场态势发生了较大变化,本地劳动力与外来劳动力的就业冲突日益显现,外来劳动力对大城市劳动力市场的影响问题,不再只是一个学术问题,更是一个政策性问题.我们设计并在武汉市实施了一项调查,通过比较外来劳动力与本地劳动力就业状况及就业行为,研究外来劳动力对本地劳动力的影向.该项调查的主要特点,一是根据外来劳动力的就业结构设定样本框;二是参照外来劳动力就业结构,选取正式迁移及本地居民两类人群作为对照样本;三是将所有样本划分为雇员与雇主(包括自我就业)两种.调查发现,就雇员而言,外来劳动力、正式移民、本地居民等三类样本在就业渠道、工作时间、收入决定等多方面存在较大差异,而雇主中,三类样本的差异则要小得多.这种现象包含着多方面的政策内涵.     

地方品质与经济机会对劳动力流动的影响 ——基于CLDS 2016的实证分析

基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据,采用条件logit模型实证考察了决定中国城际劳动力区位选择的区域和个人因素。旨在评估流动劳动力选择目的地时地方品质、就业机会和经济结构的相对权重,以及这些地方因素在不同类型的劳动力中的作用程度。结果表明:(1)地方品质对吸引迁移人口流入有显著的正向促进作用且大于就业机会带来的效应,迁移人口会倾向于流向地方品质更好的城市。(2)通过对比地方品质和工资水平对流动人口流向选择概率的影响可以计算得到流动人口对于地方品质水平提升1个单位的支付意愿约为9.70元。(3)从异质性检验结果来看,个人消费服务、地区基础结构和公共服务对本地吸引人才流入的能力均表现出显著的带动性;年轻一代和室内工作的劳动力群体更加注重环境因素的考量,对城市品质提出了更高的要求。相比于地方品质,高教育水平劳动者受到高工资水平的调节作用更大。来自城镇的劳动者更加重视地方品质建设对自身带来的影响,而来自农村的劳动者更加注重工资报酬所带来的经济效用;流入内陆、淮北地区、特大、超大和高收入阶段的城市吸引劳动力受城市地方品质的影响效果更显著;流入内陆、淮南地区、大中小和中等收入偏上/偏下城市吸引劳动力受工资水平的影响更显著。     

韩国外籍劳工政策及外籍劳工现状

进入20世纪80年代以后,随着持续的经济增长,韩国国内工资水平显著提高。同时,由于人口结构以及产业结构的变化,国内某些行业出现了劳动力短缺现象。从80年代后半期开始,大量外籍劳工从亚洲各国不断涌入韩国。为了解决国内一些产业的劳动力短缺问题,韩国建立了"外国人产业研修生制度",并通过该制度从亚洲各国接受了大量研修生。2003年7月韩国又制定"关于外国劳动者雇佣等的法律",决定从2004年8月起实施外国人雇佣许可制,并同原来的外国人研修生制度并行实施。     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.     

农村劳动力区域性流动特征及其对粮食供求格局的影响

文章在总结中国农村劳动力跨区域流动的表现特征及成因的基础上,分析了当前农村劳动力跨区域流动对粮食供求格局造成的影响,探讨了农村劳动力跨区域流动与粮食供求区域均衡之间的关系,并基于构建的中国粮食供求区域均衡模型实证模拟了未来农村劳动力跨区域流动对粮食供求格局可能造成的潜在影响。分析结果表明,农村劳动力跨区域流动会影响粮食主产区和粮食主销区的粮食供求均衡格局。实证模拟结果表明,随着中国区域经济发展差异的进一步凸现,经济发达地区尤其是作为粮食主销区的广东、浙江、上海、北京的粮食产需缺口会进一步加大,粮食供求区域失衡程度可能将会更加严重。     

Brain drain and technological relationship between skilled and unskilled labor: brain gain or brain loss?

This study analyzes the effect of an increase in the foreign skilled wage rate on the emigration and education decisions of individuals in the home economy. An increase in the foreign skilled wage rate encourages emigration of skilled workers out of the home country, while possible increase in the supply of skilled labor in the home depends on the technological relationship between skilled and unskilled labor in production. Although the average education level will rise when they are complements, the average education level may not necessarily be raised when they are substitutes.     

Analysis on China's Labor Supply and Demand Trend for a Long-term

The paper take Leslie method to forecast China's total population and its age distribution structure from 2015 to 2050,and then predict the total labor supply of the working-age population,estimate the total demand for labor according to the employment elasticity of the economic growth,calculated the gap between labor supply and demand.The results show that both the labor supply and demand showed a decreasing trend,but the supply reduced faster than demand,after 2015,the labor market appears shortage,the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time and have a tendency to expand.Facing of the new situation and new problems of the labor market,we recommend some corresponding policy.     

中国大学毕业生劳动力市场中的同群效应

随着高校毕业生就业制度的改革和高等教育规模的扩大,大量的大学毕业生进入了劳动力市场,这些大学毕业生在劳动力市场的表现是一个值得关注的问题。针对目前国内关于大学生就业等问题的实证文章较少的现状,文章使用2007年中国大学毕业生就业与能力年度调查数据,利用空间计量经济学的方法研究我国大学毕业生劳动力市场中的同群效应。研究的结果发现,在我国大学毕业生劳动力市场中存在着显著的、正向的同群效应,并证实了这种同群效应一部分可由大学生在校期间的各种知识和能力培养的相互影响所解释。     

我国未来中长期劳动力需求预测

本文结合经济预测,对我国未来中长期2010-2050年劳动力需求进行了定量预测。预测结果表明,随着经济增长方式的转变、劳动生产率的提高,我国未来劳动力需求有下降的趋势,但下降比较缓慢,而我国劳动力供给量在＂十二五＂期间达到顶峰后会迅速下降,2016年后我国劳动力市场将可能长期面临劳动力短缺问题。     

International marriages in South Korea: The significance of nationality and ethnicity

International marriage has increased drastically in South Korea in recent years, and by 2005, 13.6 per cent of marriages involved a foreign spouse. The purpose of this study is twofold: to explore the demographic demand and supply of foreign spouses in the marriage market in South Korea, and to examine how social positions of foreign wives vary by their place in the marriage market as determined by their nationality and ethnicity. Data show that the demand for foreign spouses is particularly strong among rural never-married and urban divorced Korean men. Among foreign wives, Chinese, especially Korean Chinese, tend to marry divorced Koreans, partly because many of them have also been married before. The Korean Chinese are the most autonomous among five groups of foreign wives examined, showing the highest rates of Korean citizenship, divorce-separation, and employment. Southeast Asian women tend to marry rural never-married men, and they are the most adaptive to the host society in the way they show among the highest rates of Korean citizenship and employment (after controlling for their poor Korean proficiency and short duration in Korea). Their divorce-separation rate is the lowest regardless of such control. This study demonstrates that marriage migrants adaptation to the host society differs significantly by nationality and ethnic origin.     

城市工资上涨、劳动力转移与投资拉动增长方式——基于中国地级城市面板数据的分析

改革开放后,中国以高投资率带动了城市经济的高速增长,但随着农村剩余劳动力存量的不断减少,劳动力供给增长开始跟不上高投资带来的劳动力需求的增长,城市经济的发展正面临着工资加速上涨、投资的产出与就业效应不断降低的挑战。文章利用2004～2009年中国地级城市面板数据进行实证分析,结果显示,城市工资上涨对劳动力供给的拉力是递减的,而对劳动力需求的抑制作用却是递增的;劳动力市场均衡的比较静态分析结果显示,投资的工资上涨效应在递增,而投资的产出与就业效应在递减,因此城市工资上涨是必然趋势。此外,工资上涨对外商直接投资有明显抑制作用,在国内外双重压力下,中国继续实行投资拉动的增长方式已不是明智的选择。     

International labor migration and domestic labor supply

Prominent among the variety of issues raised by the immigration of labor are its effects on domestic wage rates and labor supply. In contrast to the existing literature, this paper constructs a dynamic, general equilibrium framework to study the relationship between international labor migration and domestic labor supply. The general equilibrium nature of the model enables us to endogenize the pattern of labor migration. The effect of labor migration on domestic wage rates and labor supply is shown to depend on the pattern of labor migration. If the substitution effect dominates the income effect in labor supply, the domestic supply of labor necessarily decreases in response to an inflow of migrants. This happens even if immigrants, through their savings behavior, cause an increase in the domestic capital-labor ratio and wage rate. Similarly, if the dominant effect is the income effect, the immigration of labor necessarily increases the domestic supply of labor.I wish to thank Oded Galor, Harl Ryder, Kalpana Kochhar and two referees for valuable comments. The opinions expressed in this paper are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Joel Popkin and Company.     

女性健康风险冲击对配偶劳动供给的影响研究

不可预期的疾病是45岁以上中老年劳动者经常面临的健康风险冲击.个体的健康风险冲击将会对配偶的劳动供给行为带来两个方面的影响,一是配偶为了照护患病个体将会减少劳动供给;二是因患病消费增加,收入减少,配偶将会增加劳动供给.本文采用中国健康和养老追踪调查2011-2018纵向调查数据实证检验这两方面的效应.本文研究发现当女性...