Estimating the Intercept in an Orthogonally Blocked Experiment when the Block Effects are Random

Abstract

For an orthogonally blocked experiment, Khuri [Khuri, A. I. (1992). Response surface models with random block effects. Technometrics 34:26–37] has shown that the ordinary least squares estimator, the generalized least squares estimator and the intra-block estimator of the factor effects in a response surface model with random block effects coincide. The ordinary least squares estimator ignores the blocks, whereas the generalized least squares and the intra-block estimators treat the block effects as random and fixed, respectively. As shown in this paper, the equivalence does not hold for the estimation of the intercept when the block sizes are heterogeneous. Practical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Population size estimation for capture-recapture models with applications to epidemiological data

The capture-recapture method is applied to estimate the population size of a target population based on ascertainment data in epidemiological applications. We generalize the three-list case of Chao & Tsay (1998) to situations where more than three lists are available. An estimation procedure is presented using the concept of sample coverage, which can be interpreted as a measure of overlap information among multiple list records. When there is enough overlap, an estimator of the total population size is proposed. The bootstrap method is used to construct a variance estimator and confidence interval. If the overlap rate is relatively low, then the population size cannot be precisely estimated and thus only a lower (upper) bound is proposed for positively (negatively) dependent lists. The proposed method is applied to two data sets, one with a high and one with a low overlap rate.     

Population correlation matrices for sampling experiments

A procedure is given for generating correlation matrices which can be used as population correlation matrices for sampling experiments. The algorithm specifies the eigenvalues and randomly selects a correlation matrix from the class of all correlation matrices which possess these same eigenvalues. It is possible to obtain a set of correlation matrices which are indexed by the degree of interdependence among the variables by parameterizing the eigenvalues with a single parameter. An example is the case in which the eigenvalues form a geometric progression. Examples are given and an application to the problem of stopping rules in stepwise regression is discussed. Other applications are also briefly discussed.     

Concordance of Complete or Right-Censored Rankings Based on Spearman's Footrule

A right-censored ranking is what results when a judge ranks only the “top K” of M objects. Complete uncensored rankings constitute a special case. We present two measures of concordance among the rankings of N ≥ 2 such judges, both based on Spearman's footrule. One measure is unweighted, while the other gives greatest weight to the first rank, less to the second, and so on. We consider methods for calculating or estimating the P-values of the corresponding tests of the hypothesis of random ranking.     

A Method for Generating High-Dimensional Multivariate Binary Variates

Examples are given of the need for simulating correlated binary variates with different given marginal expectations and pairwise correlations. An algorithm is then presented for generating such variates. The algorithm may be used to generate variates of any dimension.     

Confounding adjustment methods for multi-level treatment comparisons under lack of positivity and unknown model specification

Imbalances in covariates between treatment groups are frequent in observational studies and can lead to biased comparisons. Various adjustment methods can be employed to correct these biases in the context of multi-level treatments (> 2). Analytical challenges, such as positivity violations and incorrect model specification due to unknown functional relationships between covariates and treatment or outcome, may affect their ability to yield unbiased results. Such challenges were expected in a comparison of fire-suppression interventions for preventing fire growth. We identified the overlap weights, augmented overlap weights, bias-corrected matching and targeted maximum likelihood as methods with the best potential to address those challenges. A simple variance estimator for the overlap weight estimators that can naturally be combined with machine learning is proposed. In a simulation study, we investigated the performance of these methods as well as those of simpler alternatives. Adjustment methods that included an outcome modeling component performed better than those that focused on the treatment mechanism in our simulations. Additionally, machine learning implementation was observed to efficiently compensate for the unknown model specification for the former methods, but not the latter. Based on these results, we compared the effectiveness of fire-suppression interventions using the augmented overlap weight estimator.     

Estimation for hidden Markov random fields

A finite state Markov random field is noisily observed via a second finite state process. The parameters of the model are estimated, as well as the most likely signal given the observations.     

The Influence of Random Effects on Univariate and Bivariate Discrete Proportional Hazards Models

The random effects survival model has been widely used in the recent literature as a generalization of the continuous proportional hazards model. When a random effect is present, it is known that the hazard rates are generally underestimated in the context of continuous proportional hazards models. This article establishes theorems for the influence of random effects on both univariate and bivariate discrete proportional hazards models.     

Rounding halves

This paper examines the consequences of requiring that data measured as multiples of a half should be reported as integers. General formulae are given for the mean and variance of rounded values. The formulae are applied in the context of fibre counting, where fibres that overlap a boundary are given a value of 1/2.     

Distribution of variance ratio in unbalanced random model under heterogeneity of error variances

The effects of heteroscedasticity have been studied on the mean and variance of F ratio and on the power of F-test in unbalanced one-way random model, numerically. The computed results reveal that the heteroscedasticity and unbalanoedness have combined effects. The mean and variance of F as well as the power of F-test increase with inequality of error variances under balanced and those unbalanced situations where more variable groups have larger size. The effects are of serious nature when more variable groups have smaller size.     

Optimal sample coordination using controlled selection

Sample coordination maximizes or minimizes the overlap of two or more samples selected from overlapping populations. It can be applied to designs with simultaneous or sequential selection of samples. We propose a method for sample coordination in the former case. We consider the case where units are to be selected with maximum overlap using two designs with given unit inclusion probabilities. The degree of coordination is measured by the expected sample overlap, which is bounded above by a theoretical bound, called the absolute upper bound, and which depends on the unit inclusion probabilities. If the expected overlap equals the absolute upper bound, the sample coordination is maximal. Most of the methods given in the literature consider fixed marginal sampling designs, but in many cases, the absolute upper bound is not achieved. We propose to construct optimal sampling designs for given unit inclusion probabilities in order to realize maximal coordination. Our method is based on some theoretical conditions on joint selection probability of two samples and on the controlled selection method with linear programming implementation. The method can also be applied to minimize the sample overlap.     

The overlapping coefficient as a measure of agreement between probability distributions and point estimation of the overlap of two normal densities

The overlapping coefficient is defined as a measure of the agreement between two probability distributions. Its relationship to the dissimilarity index and its propertie are described. An extensive treatment of maximum-likelihood estimation of the overlap between two normal distributions is presented as an example of estimating the overlapping coefficient from sample data.     

An exhaustive analysis of prime modulus multiplicative congruential random number generators with modulus smaller than 215

This paper presents the results of an exhaustive analysis of all of the prime modulus multiplicative congruential random number (RN) generators with moduli smaller than 2¹⁵. In an amount of around 20 million multipliers which are able to produce a full period of RNs, 239 multipliers have a good lattice structure. Among which 52 multipliers further pass a comprehensive battery of empirical tests. These 52 multipliers thus possess good local and global statistical properties. It is worthwhile to note that some empirically tested multipliers recommended in some previous studies are not on this list. The conclusion is that both theoretical and empirical tests are mandatory to sieve out good multipliers. To generate RNs of very long period, many existing techniques can be applied without further effort.     

The random robin problem for laplace's equation

A random generalized solution to the Robin problem for Laplace's equation is defined in terms of the sections of the random boundary data. Existence, uniqueness, and properties are established for such a solution. Particularizations to the Dirichlet and Newmann problems as well as generalization to the Robin-Poisson problem are mentioned. Applications of the results are provided.     

基于信息可替代性的评价指标筛选研究

提出一种指标筛选方法,旨在筛选出对评价结果影响显著、反映信息重叠程度低的评价指标。以相对离散系数作为指标的信息含量,依据提出的累计信息贡献率标准删除信息含量明显偏小的指标进行指标的初筛,克服现有研究仅利用相对离散系数进行指标筛选的不足。借鉴聚类分析的思想,取初筛后保留下来的一个指标与其余各指标构成Person相关系数平方的均值,反映该指标的信息可被其余全部指标替代的程度。通过信息可替代性标准剔除信息可替代性较大的指标,保证最终被保留的指标间反映的信息重叠程度低,克服现有研究仅通过两个指标间的相关性筛选指标难以有效降低评价指标集信息重叠的不足。此外,针对剔除信息重叠的指标与剔除对评价结果影响不显著的指标何者优先为宜的问题,提出了显著再相关的指标筛选标准。最后,通过一个实例说明指标筛选方法的可行性。     

Sequential LND sensitivity test for binary response data

Sensitivity tests are used to make inferences about a sensitivity, a characteristic property of some products that cannot be observed directly. For binary response sensitivity data (dead or alive, explode or unexplode), the Langlie and Neyer are two well-known sensitivity tests. The priorities of the Langlie and Neyer tests are investigated in this paper. It is shown that the Langlie test has an advantage in getting an overlap, while the Neyer test has better estimation precision. Aiming at improving both the speed of getting an overlap and the estimation precision, we propose a new sensitivity test which replaces the first part of the Neyer test with the Langlie test. Our simulation studies indicate that the proposed test outperforms the Langlie, Neyer and Dror and Steinberg tests from the viewpoints of estimation precision and probability of obtaining an overlap.     

A Simulation Comparison of Approximate Tests for Fixed Effects in Random Coefficients Growth Curve Models

Often, the response variables on sampling units are observed repeatedly over time. The sampling units may come from different populations, such as treatment groups. This setting is routinely modeled by a random coefficients growth curve model, and the techniques of general linear mixed models are applied to address the primary research aim. An alternative approach is to reduce each subject’s data to summary measures, such as within-subject averages or regression coefficients. One may then test for equality of means of the summary measures (or functions of them) among treatment groups. Here, we compare by simulation the performance characteristics of three approximate tests based on summary measures and one based on the full data, focusing mainly on accuracy of p-values. We find that performances of these procedures can be quite different for small samples in several different configurations of parameter values. The summary-measures approach performed at least as well as the full-data mixed models approach.     

The Method to Identify a Biomarker and to Evaluate Its Efficiency for Survival by Using the Joint Model of the Accelerate Failure Time and Longitudinal Data

In this article, we discuss how to identify longitudinal biomarkers in survival analysis under the accelerated failure time model and also discuss the effectiveness of biomarkers under the accelerated failure time model. Two methods proposed by Shcemper et al. are deployed to measure the efficacy of biomarkers. We use simulations to explore how the factors can influence the power of a score test to detect the association of a longitudinal biomarker and the survival time. These factors include the functional form of the random effects from the longitudinal biomarkers, in the different number of individuals, and time points per individual. The simulations are used to explore how the number of individuals, the number of time points per individual influence the effectiveness of the biomarker to predict survival at the given endpoint under the accelerated failure time model. We illustrate our methods using a prothrombin index as a predictor of survival in liver cirrhosis patients.     

Variable Selection via Regression Trees in the Presence of Irrelevant Variables

Many tree algorithms have been developed for regression problems. Although they are regarded as good algorithms, most of them suffer from loss of prediction accuracy when there are many irrelevant variables and the number of predictors exceeds the number of observations. We propose the multistep regression tree with adaptive variable selection to handle this problem. The variable selection step and the fitting step comprise the multistep method.

The multistep generalized unbiased interaction detection and estimation (GUIDE) with adaptive forward selection (fg) algorithm, as a variable selection tool, performs better than some of the well-known variable selection algorithms such as efficacy adaptive regression tube hunting (EARTH), FSR (false selection rate), LSCV (least squares cross-validation), and LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) for the regression problem. The results based on simulation study show that fg outperforms other algorithms in terms of selection result and computation time. It generally selects the important variables correctly with relatively few irrelevant variables, which gives good prediction accuracy with less computation time.     

The Representation of Hypergeometric Random Variables using Independent Bernoulli Random Variables

In this paper, we show that a hypergeometric random variable can be represented as a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables that are, except in degenerate cases, not identically distributed. In the proof, we use the factorial moment generating function. An asymptotic result on the probabilities of the Bernoulli random variables in the sum is also presented. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the results.