The effect of the Great Blackout of 1965 on births in New York City

A comparison of the number of births in New York City nine months after the Great Blackout of 1965 with comparable periods for the previous five years shows no increase in births associated with the blackout.     

Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach

The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due to complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) poverty risk estimates are published with a 2–3 years delay. This paper presents a method that can be used to estimate (“nowcast”) the current at-risk-of-poverty rate for the European Union (EU) countries based on EU-SILC microdata from a previous period. The EU tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD is used for this purpose in combination with up to date macro-level statistics. The method is validated by using EU-SILC data for 2007 incomes to estimate at-risk-of-poverty rates for 2008–2012 and to compare the predictions with actual EU-SILC and other external statistics. The method is tested on eight EU countries which are among those experiencing the most volatile economic conditions within the period: Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania.     

Disparities in levels of regional development in Ghana

The paper highlights the need for the use of indicators other than Gross-Domestic Productive and its derivatives to measure development. It reviews some of the techniques for analysing socio-economic indicators and selects the Wroclow Taxonomic Analysis for more detailed analysis. The main attributes of this technique are presented and the model is then applied to measure the levels of development of the regions in Ghana. Applying the Wroclow Taxonomic Technique to 10 socio-economic variables the paper finds that the Greater Accra Region, which is the seat of the Central Government, is far more developed than any other region. It categorizes the regions into four groups: More Developed Region, Developed Regions, Developing Regions and Less Developed Regions. It thus provides a basis for regional development in Ghana as well as a pattern for equitable distribution of the ten social amenities on a regional basis.     

The Subjective Happiness Scale: Translation and Preliminary Psychometric Evaluation of a Spanish Version

The aim of the present study was to investigate the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the Subjective Happiness Scale (Lyubomirsky and Lepper in Soc Indic Res 46:137–155, 1999) in a wide sample of 1,155 participants (448 men, 707 women) from three different groups (high school students, college students, and community adult participants). The participants completed the following measures: the Spanish version of SHS, the Satisfaction with Life Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and the Spielberger Trait Anxiety Inventory. The results revealed preliminary evidence of adequate internal consistency, appropriate test–retest reliability and convergent validity for research purposes. Also, results from confirmatory factor analyses showed a clear one-factor structure, identical with the English version. No significant sex effects were evidenced, although differences between the high school student group and the undergraduate university group were found. In general, our findings add empirical evidence of the usefulness of such a brief measure for the assessment of subjective happiness in large-scale national and international studies with native Spanish-speaking populations. Finally, practical recommendations and future lines of research are suggested.     

Religious Affiliation and Fertility in a Sub-Saharan Context: Dynamic and Lifetime Perspectives

We use uniquely detailed data from a predominantly Christian high-fertility area in Mozambique to examine denominational differentials in fertility from two complementary perspectives—dynamic and cumulative. First, we use event-history analysis to predict yearly risks of birth from denominational affiliation. Then, we employ Poisson regression to model the association between the number of children ever born and share of reproductive life spent in particular denominations or outside organized religion. Both approaches detect a significant increase in fertility associated with membership in a particular type of African-initiated churches which is characterized by strong organizational identity, rigid hierarchy, and insular corporate culture. Membership in the Catholic Church is also associated with elevated completed fertility. We relate these results to extant theoretical perspectives on the relationship between religion and fertility by stressing the interplay between ideological, social, and organizational characteristics of different types of churches and situate our findings within the context of fertility transition and religious demographics in Mozambique and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Measuring Advances in Equality of Opportunity: The Changing Gender Gap in Educational Attainment in Canada in the Last Half Century

The notion of Equality of Opportunity (EO) has pervaded much of economic and social justice policy over the last half century in conveying a sense of liberation from the circumstances that constrain an individual’s ability to achieve it, and it has been a cornerstone of many gender equality programs. However unequivocal pursuit of the so called “Luck Egalitarianism” imperative has met with many critics who question why individuals who are blessed with good circumstances would wish to be “liberated” from them. This has led to a more qualified pursuit of Equal Opportunity which adds an additional proviso—that no circumstance group should be made worse off by such a policy or decentralized private initiative. Indeed observed practices, by focusing on the opportunities of the poorly endowed in circumstance, do accord with such a qualified Equal Opportunity mandate. Here it is contended that, because of the asymmetric nature of such a policy or initiative, existing empirical techniques will not fully capture the progress made toward an EO goal. Hence a new technique is introduced and employed in examining progress toward such a Qualified Equal Opportunity (QEO) Objective in the context of the educational attainments of Canadian males and females born between the 1920s and the 1970s (In the early part of that century, females did not perform as well as males educationally, and were much more constrained by their parental educational circumstance). A QEO goal is generally found to cohere with the data with females becoming less attached to their parental educational circumstance, and indeed surpassing males in their educational attainments.     

Reliability and Validity of an Adapted Version of the Cantril Ladder for Use with Adolescent Samples

There are a number of measures of life satisfaction for use with adolescent samples. The adapted Cantril Ladder is one such measure. This has been collected by the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study in HBSC member countries across Europe and North America for several survey cycles, dating back to 2002. Although this measure has been piloted in the HBSC member countries, and analysed and reported in several international scientific journals and reports, it has never been formally validated. This study aims to be a first step in validating the adapted Cantril Ladder to establish if it is fit for purpose in the measurement of global life satisfaction among adolescents in Scotland. The study found that across samples of 11–15 year old pupils, the Cantril Ladder showed good reliability, and among 11 year olds, better than that of the Students’ Life Satisfaction Scale, an often used measure in adolescent samples. The Cantril Ladder also showed good convergent validity with other emotional well-being measures, perceived health and subjective health. Gender differences were noted in the convergent analysis suggesting gender differences in factors influencing or influenced by life satisfaction measured using this instrument.     

Evaluation of family planning program performance: A critical review

Family Planning Program Evaluation is not a well-developed art, much less an exact science. The evaluation of the performance of such programs has received a good deal of attention but the methodologies are still controversial and the results inconclusive. This is due to a wide variety of constraints, not all of which are technical, and most of which are not unique to family planning. The prospects for improvement of FPPE depend, to a great extent, on overcoming these constraints.     

New money,and old man/lady and ‘Two's company’: Subjective Welfare in the NORC General Social Surveys, 1972–1982

The nine surveys, dozens of variables, and more than ten thousand cases in the NORC General Social Surveys, 1972–1982, allow one to test a variety of cross-sectional and over-time hypotheses about Subjective Welfare (Happiness). I used discrete multivariate analyses to test five hypotheses: (1) the Economist's prediction that Happiness is a function of income; the Sociologist's hypotheses that Happiness is a function of (2) rank on various evaluated dimensions and (3) number of social ties; and the Psychologist's hypotheses that Happiness is affected by (4) social comparisons and (5) adaptation. None of the five is supported impressively, but three variables emerge as good cross-sectional predictors — Race (Blacks are less Happy, but not necessarily because of discrimination), Marital Status (all categories of nonmarried are less happy) and Financial Change (those whose finances are improving are happier, those who finances have turned for the worse are less happy). When Marital Status and Recent Financial Change are used in a year-to-year social indicator model, fluctuations in the predictors produce significant but small changes in Happiness.     

Emigration and fertility decline: The case of Barbados

This paper examines the role of emigration in the recent fertility declines which have occurred on the island of Barbados. Barbados with a history of over two centuries of out-migration has experienced in the period 1951–1970 very significant migration loss. In the period 1960–1970 and up to the present fertility has been declining. An important question is what part has this net migration loss of 32,600 had on the reduction of the crude birth rate from 33.6 in 1960 or from 31.5 in 1956 to 20.5 in 1970? Using officially published net migration loss figures and supplementing them with data on Barbadians living overseas, we calculated the crude birth rates which would have occurred had there been no migration loss. We also calculated the numbers of births to be expected if certain age-specific fertility rates were maintained and compared these with the births to residents plus the calculated births to Barbadians overseas. We conclude that in both cases emigration is a very significant contributor to the fertility declines which have occurred and are still underway.     

Health-Related Quality of Life of Chinese Earthquake Survivors: A Case Study of Five Hard-Hit Disaster Counties in Sichuan

As one of the most destructive natural disasters, earthquakes affect the health of survivors. The devastating earthquakes that hit Sichuan, China have aroused the concern of domestic and international scholars. The health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors also requires substantial research. Studies on impact factors, such as gender, age, monthly income, and education, have become controversial. The subjects in this study are the people of five hard-hit disaster counties in Sichuan Province, namely, Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan. A preliminary survey was conducted in May and June 2013 in areas badly hit by the earthquake in Sichuan, China. A total of 2000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1672 of which were received, yielding a recovery rate of 83.6 %. To further complement and corroborate the conclusions, a follow-up survey was conducted in October and November 2013, where 1526 effective questionnaires were received. The analysis in this paper is mainly based on the first survey, and the collected data from the follow-up survey were used to perform a supplementary analysis. By analyzing data from five hard-hit areas in Sichuan and by establishing models, we drew the following conclusions: The results of analysis of variance and Tukey’s honestly significant difference tests revealed the following results. First, the results of two investigations indicate the HRQOL of earthquake survivors is relatively poor, especially in terms of general health (GH), mental health (MH), social functioning (SF), etc. However, results of the second survey indicate that the scores of all domains (except GH) have increased significantly, with the SF having the most significant increase. Second, the HRQOL scores of men are higher than those of women. Individuals with higher education or monthly income have higher HRQOL scores than those with lower education or income. Moreover, younger survivors have higher HRQOL scores than older survivors. Third, a positive correlation exists among the HRQOL domains of all survivors. Among all domains, the PF, RP, GH, MH, and VT of survivors have a very strong correlation. In addition, SF, BP, MH, and VT have a strong correlation. Other variables have a relatively weak correlation.     

Mediating Effects of Affect and Loneliness on the Relationship Between Core Self-evaluation and Life Satisfaction Among Two Groups of Chinese Adolescents

This study examined the mediating effects of affect (positive and negative affect) and loneliness on the relationship between core self-evaluations (CSE) and life satisfaction among two groups of Chinese adolescents. Three hundred adolescents (169 males and 131 females) from Shenzhen and Xi’an in China completed the Core Self-evaluations Scale, Positive and Negative Affect Scale, UCLA Loneliness and Satisfaction with Life Scale. Research revealed that positive and negative affect, and loneliness fully mediated the relationship between CSE and life satisfaction. The relationship between CSE and loneliness was partially mediated by positive and negative affect. Loneliness partially mediated the relation between positive and negative affect and life satisfaction. The final model also indicated two significant paths from CSE through positive and negative affect and loneliness to life satisfaction. Furthermore, a multi-group analysis found that the paths did not differ across gender. Limitations of the study are considered and implications of the results for enhancing adolescents’ life satisfaction are discussed.     

Urbanization and de-urbanization of the black population before the civil war

Pre-Civil War black urbanization is examined using data from federal census records, 1790 to 1860. The black population is found to be as urban as the white population initially, but its urbanization underwent relative decline in the last two decades before the Civil War. Foreshadowing current patterns, the northern black population was heavily concentrated in the largest cities, and the free black population was the most urban of all groups. The timing of black urban decline in the North, as well as regional and size of place differences in that decline, suggest that both competition with immigrants in major eastern seaboard cities and the passage of the Fugitive Slave Law in 1850 contributed to black de-urbanization. For the South, the explanations of black urban decline proposed by Wade, Conrad and Meyer, Goldin, and Bonacich are evaluated, and Bonacich’s split labor market theory is judged to be most consistent with the demographic trends.     

Occupational Stratification of Hispanics,Whites, and Blacks in Southern Rural Destinations: A Quantitative Analysis

Since the 1990s, many rural communities in the Southern US have experienced an unprecedented influx of Latino migrants. Some research undertaken on such “new Hispanic destinations” suggests that the newcomers tend to assume low-status jobs shunned by non-Hispanic residents and thus form a segmented labor market, but other work indicates that they heavily compete with natives (particularly African Americans) for less-skilled positions. Drawing on data from the 2000 census and 2009–2011 American Community Survey, this paper examines patterns of occupational stratification between Latino, white, and black men in the rural South to identify whether Hispanic economic relations in the area are better characterized by segmentation or competition. Specifically, occupational dissimilarity indexes and status scores are calculated to map the groups’ relative economic positions in the rural portions of five Southeastern states home to fast-growing nonmetro Latino populations: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Consistent with the segmentation hypothesis, the results reveal that Latinos are highly occupationally dissimilar from non-Hispanic whites and blacks and rank significantly below both in mean occupational status. Standardization of the stratification measures shows that Hispanics’ labor market isolation and disadvantage can be substantially accounted for by their lower average levels of human capital and US citizenship.     

Convergence on the two-child family norm in Australia

This paper examines childbearing patterns of ever-married women in Australia and establishes that during the process of fertility transition from high to low levels which largely began after 1971, significant changes occurred in the timing of the first birth after marriage, the length of the first and inter-birth intervals and the proportion of women progressing to have a first birth or births beyond the second. The analysis also confirms the predominance of the twochild family norm and shows the emergence of a converging trend on that family norm. The study applies the life tables technique to the marriage and birth history data collected in the Family Formation Survey conducted by the ABS in September 1986.     

The effects of formal church affiliation and religiosity on the fertility patterns of Mexican-American catholics

The effects of religion on the fertility patterns of Mexican Americans are examined with two different path models, the Institutional Model using formal affiliation with the Roman Catholic Church as a measure of religion, and the Religiosity Model using a measure of religiosity. Each model, tested separately for husbands and wives, examines the effects of religion on types of contraceptive methods used and on wanted family size. Although the majority of Mexican Americans are Catholics and tend to have large families, religion does not seem to have the same effect on their fertility patterns as on that of other Catholics in the United States. Among the men, neither formal affiliation nor religiosity affect the fertility patterns in any way, while among the women the effect is slight. Considering the Catholic Church’s position on contraceptive usage, it is especially noteworthy that religion does not affect the use or non-use of the more effective means of contraception, a factor contributing to the generally weak association between the measures of religion and wanted family size. The last section attempts a partial explanation of why the results turned out as they did.     

Validation of the Satisfaction with Life Scale to Brazilians: Evidences of Measurement Noninvariance Across Brazil and US

Satisfaction with life is one of three hallmarks of subjective well-being, along with frequent positive emotions and infrequent negative emotions (Diener et al. in Psychol Bull 125:276–302, 1999), and the satisfaction with life scale (SWLS; Diener et al. in J Pers Assess 49:91–95, 1985) has been used worldwide to evaluate it. The current study seeks to (a) adapt and gather evidence of validity and reliability of the SWLS for a Brazilian sample, (b) evaluate gender equivalence on Brazilian university students, and (c) test for invariance between Brazilian and US samples. Participants were US (N = 241), and Brazilian (N = 1,388) undergraduates. Results from the Brazilian sample, based on confirmatory factor analyses and measurement invariance tests, showed: (a) evidence of validity of the scale, (b) scalar invariance across gender, (c) scalar invariance within group. However, nonequivalence between Brazil and US samples was found. Such results suggest that within comparisons can be conducted with Brazilian undergraduates, but comparisons between Brazil and the US might be misleading due to lack of invariance. Similar findings have already been reported in other cultures and raise questions about cross cultural studies with this scale.     

Legal Status and the Stability of Coresidential Unions

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, we examine the effect of the legal status of coresidential unions on the likelihood of dissolution. We find that legal unions are much more stable than nonlegal unions. In addition, current legal status is more important for predicting stability of union than is legal status at the initiation of the union. We also find that the effect of current legal status remains constant over various durations of unions and that legalizing a nonlegal union has little effect beyond that expected on the basis of a occupying a particular legal status.     

Forecasting first grade public school enrollment by neighborhood

The purpose of this study is to develop an alternative method to the traditional cohort survival technique for long-run forecasting of public school enrollment by small area. In the model presented, the difference between first grade enrollment and resident births lagged six years is viewed as a function of new housing, busing, and the percent of lagged births that are white. Least squares regression analysis was used to test the model on data in four neighborhoods in New York City for the period 1958–1969. While the model fits the historical data rather well, its usefulness for long-run forecasting is diminished in areas experiencing substantial structural change.     

Well-being and ill-being: Different dimensions?

This paper presents evidence for regarding well-being and ill-being as distinct, although not orthogonal dimensions. It is suggested that well-being and ill-being may be like measures of quantitative and verbal ability in intelligence tests. For some purposes (e.g. for admitting students to particular courses of study) it may be sensible to use only one of the measures. For other purposes a combined measure-I.Q.-is appropriate. In this study we employ Indices of Well-Being and Ill-Being and a combined measure, Balance of Well-Being and Ill-Being. Using data from the first wave (1981) of an Australian panel study (N=942), four measures of well-being and three measures of ill-being were factor analysed, confirming the existence of distinct dimensions. The value of the distinctions was underlined by findings indicating that well-being and ill-being have different correlates and causes. Wellbeing depends more than ill-being on the personality traits of extraversion and optimism, and also on the existence of supportive social networks. Ill-being is more strongly related to SES, poor health and low scoring on the trait “personal competence”,. Overall, however, it was found that more variance can be accounted for in the Balance of Well-Being and Ill-Being Index than in the separate indices of Well-Being and Ill-Being.