适应性区群抽样：研究流动农民工的方法与实践

 抽样难是对农民工主流群体研究稀少的原因之一,农民工具有聚集性和流动性,总体不明使得常规抽样方法抽样成本高效率低,适应性区群抽样能更经济高效地获得可进行统计推断的样本。本文以北京市城八区的农民工抽样为例,介绍了适应性区群抽样方法的基本原理、主要操作步骤、权重计算、统计推断,以及在实际操作中应注意的若干问题。     

Calibration approach estimation of the mean in stratified sampling and stratified double sampling

Calibration estimation improves the precision of the estimates of population parameters by incorporating specified auxiliary information. A class of calibration estimators has been proposed for estimating the population mean by making use of a set of calibration constraints in stratified sampling. The estimator of variance of the proposed calibration estimator of the mean is derived using a lower level calibration approach. The idea is extended for stratified double sampling. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performances of the proposed estimators by comparing them with the similar estimators developed by Tracy, Singh and Arnab (2003 Tracy, D.S., Singh, S., Arnab, R. (2003). Note on calibration in stratified and double sampling. Surv. Methodol. 29(1): 99–104. [Google Scholar]) based on different sets of calibration constraints.     

我国各地区常住人口总量推算方法探讨

 本文以年度人口变动调查为基础,通过调查指标之间的关系、人口变动自身特征与抽查的情况,对我国各地区常住人口的推算方法进行了分析研究,并对各种评估推算方法的优缺点和适用条件进行了分析比较,根据各地区人口流动特点与人口基数,选择合适的评估推算方法,准确推算出各地常住人口数据。如何加强全国与各地数据衔接问题是今后推算评估数据工作的重点。     

Randomized response techniques: An application to the Botswana AIDS impact survey

The performance of the sampling strategy used in the Botswana Aids Impact Survey II (BAISII) has been studied in detail under a randomized response technique. We have shown that alternative strategies based on the Rao–Harley–Cochran (RHC) sampling scheme for the selection of first stage units perform much better than other strategies. In particular, the combination RHC for the selection of first stage units (fsu's) and systematic sampling for the selection of second stage units (ssu's) perform the best when the sample size is small where as the RHC and SRSWOR perform the best when the sample size is large. In view of the present findings it is recommended that the BAISII survey should be studied in more detail incorporating more indicators and increased sample sizes. This is because the BAISII survey design is extensively in use for large scales surveys in Southern African countries.     

Modified tables for the selection of double sampling attribute plan indexed by aql and lql

This paper presents modified tables for the selection of double sampling plans for given Acceptable Qualtiy Level (AQL), producer’s risk (α) Limiting Quality Level (LQL), and consumer’s risk (ß) giving the minimum sum of Average Sample Numbers (ASN) at AQL and LQL under the conditions of the Poisson model for the Operating Characteristic (OC) curve.     

A Comparison Of Two Adaptive Sampling Designs

Stratified sampling is a technique commonly used for ecological surveys. In this study there appears to be little gain in using a stratified design with adaptive cluster sampling. Two-phase adaptive sampling is preferable to adaptive cluster sampling. Even though two-phase adaptive sampling can give biased estimates, it is found that two-phase adaptive sampling has a lower MSE than adaptive cluster sampling for most populations.     

基于双重抽样框的二阶段抽样调查方法研究

由于被调查对象的频繁变动,单一抽样框很难覆盖所有的目标单位。为了克服单一抽样框覆盖不完全的缺陷,在各阶段抽样调查采用双重（或多重）抽样框是一种有效的办法。对双重抽样框下的二阶段抽样估计方法进行了研究,得出简单随机抽样下的总体总值估计及其估计量方差,并利用拉格朗日函数求出双重抽样框重叠部分的最优抽样权重系数及各抽样阶段不同子域的样本容量,分析结果可为实际部门在双重抽样框下进行二阶段抽样调查提供相关的理论基础。     

On triple sampling scremes for estimating from binomial data with misclassification errors ∗

Previous work has been carried out on the use of double sampling schemes for inference from binomial data which are subject to misclassification. The double sampling scheme utilizes a sample of n units which are classified by both a fallible and a true device and another sample of n₂ units which are classified only by a fallible device. A triple sampljng scheme incorporates an additional sample of n_l units which are classified only by the true device. In this paper we apply this triple sampling to estimation from binomialdata. First estimation of a binomial proportion is discussed under different misclassification structures. Then, the problem of optimal allocation of sample sizes is discussed.     

Estimation of Finite Population Mean in Stratified Random Sampling with Two Auxiliary Variables under Double Sampling Design

In this article, a chain ratio-product type exponential estimator is proposed for estimating finite population mean in stratified random sampling with two auxiliary variables under double sampling design. Theoretical and empirical results show that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the existing estimators, i.e., usual stratified random sample mean estimator, Chand (1975) chain ratio estimator, Choudhary and Singh (2012) estimator, chain ratio-product-type estimator, Sahoo et al. (1993) difference type estimator, and Kiregyera (1984) regression-type estimator. Two data sets are used to illustrate the performances of different estimators.     

A note on iterative AK composite estimator for Current Population Survey

In this article, we introduce the iterative AK composite estimator for the Current Population Survey. This estimator adopts the AK composite estimator as the initial value and further makes good use of the intrinsic composite scheme of the AK composite estimator. We derive the mean squared error (MSE) formula for the iterative composite estimator and describe how to select the optimal tuning coefficients by minimising the MSE. Finally, we examine the proposed method through a simulation study.     

Conditioning on Auxiliary Variable Means in Finite Population Inference

This paper reviews conditional properties of the mean and total estimators of a finite population when auxiliary information is available. An exact design-based conditional analysis for complex sampling designs is intractable, but an asymptotic conditional framework can be developed. Within such a framework the paper establishes sufficient conditions for conditional unbiasedness and explores conditional properties of various types of regression estimators. A sample statistic capable of indicating the presence of substantial conditional biases is proposed, and illustrated by a simulation study.     

Quantile Estimation Using Ranked Set Samples from a Population with Known Mean

Ranked set sampling (RSS) is a cost-efficient technique for data collection when the units in a population can be easily judgment ranked by any cheap method other than actual measurements. Using auxiliary information in developing statistical procedures for inference about different population characteristics is a well-known approach. In this work, we deal with quantile estimation from a population with known mean when data are obtained according to RSS scheme. Through the simple device of mean-correction (subtract off the sample mean and add on the known population mean), a modified estimator is constructed from the standard quantile estimator. Asymptotic normality of the new estimator and its asymptotic efficiency relative to the original estimator are derived. Simulation results for several underlying distributions show that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the traditional one.     

Bayesian estimation methods for categorical data with misclassifications

This article considers Bayesian estimation methods for categorical data with misclassifications. To adjust for misclassification, double sampling schemes are utilized. Observations are represented in a contingency table categorized by error-free categorical variables and error-prone categorical variables. Posterior means of probabilities in cells are considered as estimates. In some cases, the posterior means can be calculated exactly. However,in some cases, the exact calculation may be too difficult to perform, but we can easily use the expectation-maximiza-tion(EM) algorithm to obtain approximate posterior means.     

A generalized procedure for selection of attribute double sampling plan

A compact table, yielding attribute double sampling plan indexed by AQL, AOQL and LQL and double sampling scheme indexed by AQL is presented. Method of selecting the plans are indicated through examples.     

Polya后验方法在有限总体抽样估计中的模拟研究

polya后验方法作为一种无信息贝叶斯估计方法,在有限总体抽样中,通过观测的样本,构造一系列的模拟总体,然后进行统计推断。通过统计模拟研究了polya后验方法估计的一些特点,并和Bootstrap方法进行比较。模拟结果显示:polya后验方法能够很好地估计总体的均值,随着样本量的增大,估计值与真值的差距越来越小。采用polya后验方法构造的置信区间区间长度较小,能够很好地覆盖真值。     

A Correction Note on Improvement in Variance Estimation Using Auxiliary Information

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the testing problem for homogeneity in the mixture exponential family is considered. The model is irregular in the sense that each interest parameter forms a part of the null hypothesis (sub-null hypothesis) and the null hypothesis is the union of the sub-null hypotheses. The generalized likelihood ratio test does not distinguish between the sub-null hypotheses. The Supplementary Score Test is proposed by combining two orthogonalized score tests obtained corresponding to the two sub-null hypotheses after proper reparameterization. The test is easy to design and performs better than the generalized likelihood ratio test and other alternative tests by numerical comparisons.     

Design of a rotation scheme for a stratified multi-stage sample

A rotation scheme for a stratified multi-stage sample, discussed in this paper, was designed to statisfy the following conditions: (i) there is a constraint on the number of units that can be replaced in each round, and (ii) it is relatively inexpensive to increase the sample size gradually. An example of these conditions was observed in the development of a plan for measuring the accuracy of the billing process of a telephone company. Estimators of the population proportion of elements that possess a specified characteristic are also derived. Each estimator is a weighted average of the corresponding estimates based on the retained units from the original sample and on the new units, where the weight of the estimate based on the new units increases over time. While this rotation scheme is discussed in connection with the billing accuracy of a telephone company, the methodology can be applied to other similar problems.     

Population moments and moments of the sample mean

This paper presents new formulae which simultaneously express and estimate moments of the sample mean and estimate population moments, from a simple random sample drawn without replcement from a finite population. By avoiding the generality of the multivariate case, these two problems are not only unified but are made significantly more tractable. Explicit solution are given up to eighth moments. Asymptotic results for infinite populations are also given.     

Moments and efficiency of the median and trimmed mean for finite populations

Exact formulas for the expected value and variance of the median and trimmed mean are found as functions of the elements of a finite population under simple random sampling. A simulation study is performed to compare the performance of the median and trimmed mean versus the mean when sampling from various simulated finite populations. Finally, the asymptotic performance of these estimators, when sampling from infinite populations, is compared with the finite populations results.     

基于平衡单水平轮换的连续性抽样估计方法研究

内容提要：针对现存的各种单水平轮换模式和估计方法,本文提出一套统一的平衡单水平轮换模式。在此轮换模式下,引入两类相关关系,运用线性无偏估计方法,并通过使不同类型估计量方差的加权总和最小的方法确定最优系数,从而得到最优线性无偏估计量,不仅能够减少甚至消除估计量偏差的影响,还能使得连续性调查的整体抽样误差最小,适合估计各种类型的估计量。