Efficient computation of the cdf of the maximal difference between a Brownian bridge and its concave majorant

In this paper, we describe two computational methods for calculating the cumulative distribution function and the upper quantiles of the maximal difference between a Brownian bridge and its concave majorant. The first method has two different variants that are both based on a Monte Carlo approach, whereas the second uses the Gaver–Stehfest (GS) algorithm for the numerical inversion of the Laplace transform. If the former method is straightforward to implement, it is very much outperformed by the GS algorithm, which provides a very accurate approximation of the cumulative distribution as well as its upper quantiles. Our numerical work has a direct application in statistics: the maximal difference between a Brownian bridge and its concave majorant arises in connection with a nonparametric test for monotonicity of a density or regression curve on [0,1]. Our results can be used to construct very accurate rejection region for this test at a given asymptotic level.     

Sequential determination of the number of bootstrap samples

The primary purpose of this paper is that of developing a sequential Monte Carlo approximation to an ideal bootstrap estimate of the parameter of interest. Using the concept of fixed-precision approximation, we construct a sequential stopping rule for determining the number of bootstrap samples to be taken in order to achieve a specified precision of the Monte Carlo approximation. It is shown that the sequential Monte Carlo approximation is asymptotically efficient in the problems of estimation of the bias and standard error of a given statistic. Efficient bootstrap resampling is discussed and a numerical study is carried out for illustrating the obtained theoretical results.     

Testing for a trend in exponential means: A two-moment approximation to the null distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic

The likelihood-ratio test statistic for testing homogeneity of exponential means with an ordered alternative has a rather complex null distribution. Expressions for the mean and variance of its null distribution are derived, and the accuracy of a two-moment chi-squared approximation is studied. The coefficients needed to implement the approximation are tabled. The application of these results in testing for a constant versus a nondecreasing intensity in a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is also discussed.     

A modified two-stage approach for joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have been applied in many different fields of statistics and clinical studies. However, the main difficulty these models have to face with is the computational problem. The requirement for numerical integration becomes severe when the dimension of random effects increases. In this paper, a modified two-stage approach has been proposed to estimate the parameters in joint models. In particular, in the first stage, the linear mixed-effects models and best linear unbiased predictorsare applied to estimate parameters in the longitudinal submodel. In the second stage, an approximation of the fully joint log-likelihood is proposed using the estimated the values of these parameters from the longitudinal submodel. Survival parameters are estimated bymaximizing the approximation of the fully joint log-likelihood. Simulation studies show that the approach performs well, especially when the dimension of random effects increases. Finally, we implement this approach on AIDS data.     

Converting observed likelihood to levels of significance for transformation models

Inference for a scalar parameter in the pressence of nuisance parameters requires high dimensional integrations of the joint density of the pivotal quantities. Recent development in asymptotic methods provides accurate approximations for significance levels and thus confidence intervals for a scalar component parameter. In this paper, a simple, efficient and accurate numerical procedure is first developed for the location model and is then extended to the location-scale model and the linear regression model. This numerical procedure only requires a fine tabulation of the parameter and the observed log likelihood function, which can be either the full, marginal or conditional observed log likelihood function, as input and output is the corresponding significance function. Numerical results showed that this approximation is not only simple but also very accurate. It outperformed the usual approximations such as the signed likelihood ratio statistic, the maximum likelihood estimate and the score statistic.     

Asymptotic approximations for the distributions of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">K</Emphasis>ø-divergence goodness-of-fit statistics

Kø-divergence’s statistic family for goodness-of-fit, under the null hypothesis, has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution; however, for small samples, the chi-squared approximation in some cases does not well agree with the exact distribution. In this paper, a closer approximation to the exact distribution is obtained by extracting the ø-dependent second order component from the distribution. Moreover, numerical results are presented for moderate sample sizes with moderate number of cells.     

Bayesian quantile regression and variable selection for partial linear single-index model: Using free knot spline

Partial linear single-index model (PLSIM) has both the flexibility of nonparametric treatment and interpretability of linear term, yet existing literatures about it mainly focused on mean regression, and quantile regression analysis is scarce. Based on free knot spline approximation, we apply asymmetric Laplace distribution to implement Bayesian quantile regression, and perform variable selection in linear term and index vector via binary indicators. Our approach is exempt from regularity conditions in frequentist method, and could execute variable selection and quantile regression under mutual posterior correction, which is also the first work to implement them jointly for PLSIM in fully Bayesian framework. The numerical simulation manifests the superiority of our approach to previous methods, which embodied in better efficiency of variable selection, index vector estimates and link function approximation with different error distributions. For illustration of its application, we build a power consumption model of A₂/O process in wastewater treatment and emphatically analyze the impact of water quality factors.     

Improvement of the quality of the chi-square approximation for the ADF test on a covariance matrix with a linear structure

The asymptotically distribution-free (ADF) test statistic was proposed by Browne (1984). It is known that the null distribution of the ADF test statistic is asymptotically distributed according to the chi-square distribution. This asymptotic property is always satisfied, even under nonnormality, although the null distributions of other famous test statistics, e.g., the maximum likelihood test statistic and the generalized least square test statistic, do not converge to the chi-square distribution under nonnormality. However, many authors have reported numerical results which indicate that the quality of the chi-square approximation for the ADF test is very poor, even when the sample size is large and the population distribution is normal. In this paper, we try to improve the quality of the chi-square approximation to the ADF test for a covariance matrix with a linear structure by using the Bartlett correction applicable under the assumption of normality. By conducting numerical studies, we verify that the obtained Bartlett correction can perform well even when the assumption of normality is violated.     

Latent variable techniques for categorical data

Two useful statistical methods for generating a latent variable are described and extended to incorporate polytomous data and additional covariates. Item response analysis is not well-known outside its area of application, mainly because the procedures to fit the models are computer intensive and not routinely available within general statistical software packages. The linear score technique is less computer intensive, straightforward to implement and has been proposed as a good approximation to item response analysis. Both methods have been implemented in the standard statistical software package GLIM 4.0, and are compared to determine their effectiveness.     

Monte Carlo Approximations of the Quantiles of a Sample Statistic

We consider in this article the problem of numerically approximating the quantiles of a sample statistic for a given population, a problem of interest in many applications, such as bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed Monte Carlo method can be routinely applied to handle complex problems that lack analytical results. Furthermore, the method yields estimates of the quantiles of a sample statistic of any sample size though Monte Carlo simulations for only two optimally selected sample sizes are needed. An analysis of the Monte Carlo design is performed to obtain the optimal choices of these two sample sizes and the number of simulated samples required for each sample size. Theoretical results are presented for the bias and variance of the numerical method proposed. The results developed are illustrated via simulation studies for the classical problem of estimating a bivariate linear structural relationship. It is seen that the size of the simulated samples used in the Monte Carlo method does not have to be very large and the method provides a better approximation to quantiles than those based on an asymptotic normal theory for skewed sampling distributions.     

A generalized confidence limit for the reliability function of a two-parameter exponential distribution

Based on type II censored data, an exact lower confidence limit is constructed for the reliability function of a two-parameter exponential distribution, using the concept of a generalized confidence interval due to Weerahandi (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 88 (1993) 899). It is shown that the interval is exact, i.e., it provides the intended coverage. The confidence limit has to be numerically obtained; however, the required computations are simple and straightforward. An approximation is also developed for the confidence limit and its performance is numerically investigated. The numerical results show that compared to what is currently available, our approximation is more satisfactory in terms of providing the intended coverage, especially for small samples.     

A simple approximation relation between the symmetric generalized logistic and the students t distributions

In this paper, we obtain a new approximation of the Student's t distribution by using the symmetric generalized logistic (SGL) distribution function. The error of this approximation is shown to be 0(1/n² )where nis the degrees of freedom of thetdistribution. In comparison to similar approximations by George and Ojo and George et al. (1986), this new approximation is much simpler and more accurate. It is also shown that under some conditions, the tdistribution is a good approximation of the SGL distribution. Therefore, the complicated expressions for the cumulants and moments of the SGL can be approximated by those of the t, distribution. Finally, numerical results are given.     

New monte carlo results on the robustness of the anova f,w and f statistics

Because the usual F test for equal means is not robust to unequal variances, Brown and Forsythe (1974a) suggest replacing F with the statistics F or W which are based on the Satterthwaite and Welch adjusted degrees of freedom procedures. This paper reports practical situations where both F and W give * unsatisfactory results. In particular, both F and W may not provide adequate control over Type I errors. Moreover, for equal variances, but unequal sample sizes, W should be avoided in favor of F (or F ), but for equal sample sizes, and possibly unequal variances, W was the only satisfactory statistic. New results on power are included as well. The paper also considers the effect of using F or W only after a significant test for equal variances has been obtained, and new results on the robustness of the F test are described. It is found that even for equal sample sizes as large as 50 per treatment group, there are practical situations where the F test does not provide adequately control over the probability of a Type I error.     

A Viable Alternative to Resorting to Statistical Tables

It is shown in this article that, given the moments of a distribution, any percentage point can be accurately determined from an approximation of the corresponding density function in terms of the product of an appropriate baseline density and a polynomial adjustment. This approach, which is based on a moment-matching technique, is not only conceptually simple but easy to implement. As illustrated by several applications, the percentiles so obtained are in excellent agreement with the tabulated values. Whereas statistical tables, if at all available or accessible, can hardly ever cover all the potentially useful combinations of the parameters associated with a random quantity of interest, the proposed methodology has no such limitation.     

SMALL SAMPLE INFERENCE IN LOCATION SCALE MODELS WITH STUDENT(λ) ERRORS

ABSTRACT

A third order accurate approximation to the p value in testing either the location or scale parameter in a location scale model with Student(λ) errors is introduced. The third order approximation is developed via an asymptotic method, based on exponential models and the saddlepoint approximation. Techniques are presented for the numerical computation of all quantities required for the third order approximation. To compare the accuracy of various asymptotic methods a numerical example and simulation study are included. The numerical example and simulation study illustrate that the third order method presented leads to a more accurate p value approximation compared to first order methods in Student(λ) models with small samples.     

Randomized nomination sampling for finite populations

We propose a randomized minima–maxima nomination (RMMN) sampling design for use in finite populations. We derive the first- and second-order inclusion probabilities for both with and without replacement variations of the design. The inclusion probabilities for the without replacement variation are derived using a non-homogeneous Markov process. The design is simple to implement and results in simple and easy to calculate estimators and variances. It generalizes maxima nomination sampling for use in finite populations and includes some other sampling designs as special cases. We provide some optimality results and show that, in the context of finite population sampling, maxima nomination sampling is not generally the optimum design to follow. We also show, through numerical examples and a case study, that the proposed design can result in significant improvements in efficiency compared to simple random sampling without replacement designs for a wide choice of population types. Finally, we describe a bootstrap method for choosing values of the design parameters.     

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo importance sampling for approximating exact conditional probabilities

Importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used in exact inference for contingency tables for a long time, however, their performances are not always very satisfactory. In this paper, we propose a stochastic approximation Monte Carlo importance sampling (SAMCIS) method for tackling this problem. SAMCIS is a combination of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling, which employs the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm (Liang et al., J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102(477):305–320, 2007) to draw samples from an enlarged reference set with a known Markov basis. Compared to the existing importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, SAMCIS has a few advantages, such as fast convergence, ergodicity, and the ability to achieve a desired proportion of valid tables. The numerical results indicate that SAMCIS can outperform the existing importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: It can produce much more accurate estimates in much shorter CPU time than the existing methods, especially for the tables with high degrees of freedom.     

Approximating the distribution of a renewal process using generalized poisson distributions

The exact distribution of a renewal counting process is not easy to compute and is rarely of closed form. In this article, we approximate the distribution of a renewal process using families of generalized Poisson distributions. We first compute approximations to the first several moments of the renewal process. In some cases, a closed form approximation is obtained. It is found that each family considered has its own strengths and weaknesses. Some new families of generalized Poisson distributions are recommended. Theorems are obtained determining when these variance to mean ratios are less than (or exceed) one without having to find the mean and variance. Some numerical comparisons are also made.     

Saddlepoint-Based Bootstrap Inference for Quadratic Estimating Equations

Abstract.  We propose an easy to implement method for making small sample parametric inference about the root of an estimating equation expressible as a quadratic form in normal random variables. It is based on saddlepoint approximations to the distribution of the estimating equation whose unique root is a parameter's maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), while substituting conditional MLEs for the remaining (nuisance) parameters. Monotoncity of the estimating equation in its parameter argument enables us to relate these approximations to those for the estimator of interest. The proposed method is equivalent to a parametric bootstrap percentile approach where Monte Carlo simulation is replaced by saddlepoint approximation. It finds applications in many areas of statistics including, nonlinear regression, time series analysis, inference on ratios of regression parameters in linear models and calibration. We demonstrate the method in the context of some classical examples from nonlinear regression models and ratios of regression parameter problems. Simulation results for these show that the proposed method, apart from being generally easier to implement, yields confidence intervals with lengths and coverage probabilities that compare favourably with those obtained from several competing methods proposed in the literature over the past half-century.     

DISTRIBUTION OF THE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATOR IN A FIRST-ORDER AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

This paper investigates the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model. A uniform asymptotic expansion for the distribution applicable to both stationary and nonstationary cases is obtained. Accuracy of the approximation to the distribution by a first few terms of this expansion is then investigated. It is found that the leading term of this expansion approximates well the distribution. The approximation is, in almost all cases, accurate to the second decimal place throughout the distribution. In the literature, there exist a number of approximations to this distribution which are specifically designed to apply in some special cases of this model. The present approximation compares favorably with those approximations and in fact, its accuracy is, with almost no exception, as good as or better than these other approximations. Convenience of numerical computations seems also to favor the present approximations over the others. An application of the finding is illustrated with examples.