Estimation of time-varying coefficient dynamic panel data models

In this paper, we consider dynamic panel data models where the autoregressive parameter changes over time. We propose the GMM and ML estimators for this model. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to compare the performance of these two estimators. The simulation results show that the ML estimator outperforms the GMM estimator.     

Effect of Violation of the Normal Assumption on MI and ML Estimators in the Analysis of Incomplete Data

Asymptotic distributions of normal-theory-based ML/MI estimators are studied in a simple regression model under general distributions with MAR missing data. The asymptotic variance of the ML/MI estimator of residuals’ variance is explicitly derived, from which it follows that the kurtosis of the error distribution primarily affects the asymptotic variance. Results of numerical simulations conducted to study finite sample properties of the estimators, conformed largely to the asymptotic results, and they also indicated interesting findings particularly for small samples, which do not follow from the asymptotic property. It is concluded that the ML estimators perform best in the situation studied here.     

Estimation of the SURE model

The paper presents the essentials of the SURE model and the estimation of its parameters β and ω. Two alternative compact representations of the model are being used. The parameter β is estimated by least squares (LS), generalized least squares (GLS) and maximum likelihood (ML) (under normality). For ω two estimators are being considered, viz an LS-related estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator (under normality). Attention is being given to the study of asymptotic properties of all estimators examined. It turns out that the LS-related and ML estimators of ω follow the same asymptotic (normal) distribution. Efficiency comparisons for the various estimators of β conclude the paper.     

Double filter instrumental variable estimation of panel data models with weakly exogenous variables

In this article, we propose instrumental variables (IV) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for panel data models with weakly exogenous variables. The model is allowed to include heterogeneous time trends besides the standard fixed effects (FE). The proposed IV and GMM estimators are obtained by applying a forward filter to the model and a backward filter to the instruments in order to remove FE, thereby called the double filter IV and GMM estimators. We derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators under fixed T and large N, and large T and large N asymptotics where N and T denote the dimensions of cross section and time series, respectively. It is shown that the proposed IV estimator has the same asymptotic distribution as the bias corrected FE estimator when both N and T are large. Monte Carlo simulation results reveal that the proposed estimator performs well in finite samples and outperforms the conventional IV/GMM estimators using instruments in levels in many cases.     

Efficient Estimation of the PDF and the CDF of the Weibull Extension Model

The Weibull extension model is a useful extension of the Weibull distribution, allowing for bathtub shaped hazard rates among other things. Here, we consider estimation of the PDF and the CDF of the Weibull extension model. The following estimators are considered: uniformly minimum variance unbiased (UMVU) estimator, maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, percentile (PC) estimator, least squares (LS) estimator, and weighted least squares (WLS) estimator. Analytical expressions are derived for the bias and the mean squared error. Simulation studies and real data applications show that the ML estimator performs better than others.     

动态面板阈模型的一种序贯两步估计

动态面板阈模型可以刻画经济变量动态调整过程的非对称性,在实证分析中有广泛的运用,但阈值参数的引入同时增加了参数估计的困难,理论上尚有许多问题没有解决。针对此类模型,本文提出了一种简单而实用的序贯两步估计方法,首先利用格点搜索获得阈值参数的一致估计,基于该参数对数据结构进行合理划分并引入不同类型的矩条件,然后利用广义矩方法获得自回归参数的估计。理论研究与模拟结果表明,序贯两步估计具有良好的大样本性质和有限样本表现;与现有文献的方法相比,序贯两步估计能够有效避免不同类型参数估计偏差的相互影响,减小估计量的偏差与均方根误差。     

Efficient Estimation of the PDF and the CDF of the Exponentiated Gumbel Distribution

The exponentiated Gumbel model has been shown to be useful in climate modeling including global warming problem, flood frequency analysis, offshore modeling, rainfall modeling, and wind speed modeling. Here, we consider estimation of the probability density function (PDF) and the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the exponentiated Gumbel distribution. The following estimators are considered: uniformly minimum variance unbiased (UMVU) estimator, maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, percentile (PC) estimator, least-square (LS) estimator, and weighted least-square (WLS) estimator. Analytical expressions are derived for the bias and the mean squared error. Simulation studies and real data applications show that the ML estimator performs better than others.     

The Sample Selection Model from a Method of Moments Perspective

It is shown how the usual two-step estimator for the standard sample selection model can be seen as a method of moments estimator. Standard GMM theory can be brought to bear on this model, greatly simplifying the derivation of the asymptotic properties of this model. Using this setup, the asymptotic variance is derived in detail and a consistent estimator of it is obtained that is guaranteed to be positive definite, in contrast with the estimator given in the literature. It is demonstrated how the MM approach easily accommodates variations on the estimator, like the two-step IV estimator that handles endogenous regressors, and a two-step GLS estimator. Furthermore, it is shown that from the MM formulation, it is straightforward to derive various specification tests, in particular tests for selection bias, equivalence with the censored regression model, normality, homoskedasticity, and exogeneity.     

Efficient M-estimators with auxiliary information

This paper introduces a new class of M-estimators based on generalised empirical likelihood (GEL) estimation with some auxiliary information available in the sample. The resulting class of estimators is efficient in the sense that it achieves the same asymptotic lower bound as that of the efficient generalised method of moment (GMM) estimator with the same auxiliary information. The paper also shows that in case of smooth estimating equations the proposed estimators enjoy a small second order bias property compared to both efficient GMM and full GEL estimators. Analytical formulae to obtain bias corrected estimators are also provided. Simulations show that with correctly specified auxiliary information the proposed estimators and in particular those based on empirical likelihood outperform standard M and efficient GMM estimators both in terms of finite sample bias and efficiency. On the other hand with moderately misspecified auxiliary information estimators based on the nonparametric tilting method are typically characterised by the best finite sample properties.     

GMM estimation of spatial autoregressive models in a system of simultaneous equations with heteroskedasticity

This paper proposes a GMM estimation framework for the SAR model in a system of simultaneous equations with heteroskedastic disturbances. Besides linear moment conditions, the proposed GMM estimator also utilizes quadratic moment conditions based on the covariance structure of model disturbances within and across equations. Compared with the QML approach, the GMM estimator is easier to implement and robust under heteroskedasticity of unknown form. We derive the heteroskedasticity-robust standard error for the GMM estimator. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed GMM estimator performs well in finite samples.     

Oracle GMM estimation for misspecified models via thresholding

We propose a thresholding generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for misspecified time series moment condition models. This estimator has the following oracle property: its asymptotic behavior is the same as of any efficient GMM estimator obtained under the a priori information that the true model were known. We propose data adaptive selection methods for thresholding parameter using multiple testing procedures. We determine the limiting null distributions of classical parameter tests and show the consistency of the corresponding block-bootstrap tests used in conjunction with thresholding GMM inference. We present the results of a simulation study for a misspecified instrumental variable regression model and for a vector autoregressive model with measurement error. We illustrate an application of the proposed methodology to data analysis of a real-world dataset.     

Asymptotic properties of the ols and grls estimator for the replicated functional relationship model

For the simple linear functional relationship model with replication, the asymptotic properties of the ordinary (OLS) and grouping least squares (GRLS) estimator of the slope are investi- gated under the assumption of normally distributed errors with unknown covariance matrix. The relative performance of the OLS and GRLS estimator is compared in terms of the asymptotic mean square error, and a set of critical parameters are identified for determining the dominance of one estimator over the other. It is also shown that the GRLS estimator is asymptoticallyequivalent to the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator under the given assumptions.     

Estimation and Inference for Linear Panel Data Models Under Misspecification When Both n and T are Large

This article considers fixed effects (FE) estimation for linear panel data models under possible model misspecification when both the number of individuals, n, and the number of time periods, T, are large. We first clarify the probability limit of the FE estimator and argue that this probability limit can be regarded as a pseudo-true parameter. We then establish the asymptotic distributional properties of the FE estimator around the pseudo-true parameter when n and T jointly go to infinity. Notably, we show that the FE estimator suffers from the incidental parameters bias of which the top order is O(T^{? 1}), and even after the incidental parameters bias is completely removed, the rate of convergence of the FE estimator depends on the degree of model misspecification and is either (nT)^{? 1/2} or n^{? 1/2}. Second, we establish asymptotically valid inference on the (pseudo-true) parameter. Specifically, we derive the asymptotic properties of the clustered covariance matrix (CCM) estimator and the cross-section bootstrap, and show that they are robust to model misspecification. This establishes a rigorous theoretical ground for the use of the CCM estimator and the cross-section bootstrap when model misspecification and the incidental parameters bias (in the coefficient estimate) are present. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimators and inference methods, together with a simple application to the unemployment dynamics in the U.S.     

Robust Estimation of Moments in Dynamic Panel Models with Potential Intercorrelation

In this article, we provide some robust estimation of moments of the random effects and the errors in dynamic panel data models with potential intercorrelation. By differencing the residuals over the individual and time indies, we modify the popularly used Arellano-Bond GMM estimator of the parameter coefficient and study its asymptotic properties. Based on the modified parameter estimator, we construct, respectively, some moment estimators of the random effects and the errors with no affecting each other. Their asymptotic normalities are obtained under some mild conditions. The finite sample properties are investigated by a small Monte Carlo simulation experiment.     

GMM inference in spatial autoregressive models

In this study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the optimal generalized method of moments estimator (OGMME) for a spatial econometric model with a first-order spatial autoregressive process in the dependent variable and the disturbance term (for short SARAR(1, 1)). We show that the estimated asymptotic standard errors for spatial autoregressive parameters can be substantially smaller than their empirical counterparts. Hence, we extend the finite sample variance correction methodology of Windmeijer (2005 Windmeijer, F. (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators. Journal of Econometrics 126(1):25–51.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the OGMME for the SARAR(1, 1) model. Results from simulation studies indicate that the correction method improves the variance estimates in small samples and leads to more accurate inference for the spatial autoregressive parameters. For the same model, we compare the finite sample properties of various test statistics for linear restrictions on autoregressive parameters. These tests include the standard asymptotic Wald test based on various GMMEs, a bootstrapped version of the Wald test, two versions of the C(α) test, the standard Lagrange multiplier (LM) test, the minimum chi-square test (MC), and two versions of the generalized method of moments (GMM) criterion test. Finally, we study the finite sample properties of effects estimators that show how changes in explanatory variables impact the dependent variable.     

Asymptotic expansion for nonparametric M-estimator in a nonlinear regression model with long-memory errors

We consider asymptotic expansion of the nonparametric M-estimator in a fixed-design nonlinear regression model when the errors are generated by long-memory linear processes. Under mild conditions, we show that the nonparametric M-estimator is first-order equivalent to the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator, which implies that the nonparametric M-estimator has the same asymptotic distribution as that of the NW estimator. Furthermore, we study the second-order asymptotic expansion of the nonparametric M-estimator and show that the difference between the nonparametric M-estimator and the NW estimator has a limiting distribution after suitable standardization. The nature of the limiting distribution depends on the range of long-memory parameter α. We also compare the finite sample behavior of the two estimators through a numerical example when the errors are long-memory.     

A two-parameter estimator in the negative binomial regression model

In this article, a two-parameter estimator is proposed to combat multicollinearity in the negative binomial regression model. The proposed two-parameter estimator is a general estimator which includes the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, the ridge estimator (RE) and the Liu estimator as special cases. Some properties on the asymptotic mean-squared error (MSE) are derived and necessary and sufficient conditions for the superiority of the two-parameter estimator over the ML estimator and sufficient conditions for the superiority of the two-parameter estimator over the RE and the Liu estimator in the asymptotic mean-squared error (MSE) matrix sense are obtained. Furthermore, several methods and three rules for choosing appropriate shrinkage parameters are proposed. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation study is given to illustrate some of the theoretical results.     

Efficient mean estimation in log-normal linear models

Log-normal linear models are widely used in applications, and many times it is of interest to predict the response variable or to estimate the mean of the response variable at the original scale for a new set of covariate values. In this paper we consider the problem of efficient estimation of the conditional mean of the response variable at the original scale for log-normal linear models. Several existing estimators are reviewed first, including the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, the restricted ML (REML) estimator, the uniformly minimum variance unbiased (UMVU) estimator, and a bias-corrected REML estimator. We then propose two estimators that minimize the asymptotic mean squared error and the asymptotic bias, respectively. A parametric bootstrap procedure is also described to obtain confidence intervals for the proposed estimators. Both the new estimators and the bootstrap procedure are very easy to implement. Comparisons of the estimators using simulation studies suggest that our estimators perform better than the existing ones, and the bootstrap procedure yields confidence intervals with good coverage properties. A real application of estimating the mean sediment discharge is used to illustrate the methodology.     

Estimation of finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling using two auxiliary variables

We propose an improved difference-cum-exponential ratio type estimator for estimating the finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling using two auxiliary variables. We obtain properties of the estimators up to first order of approximation. The proposed class of estimators is found to be more efficient than the usual sample mean estimator, ratio estimator, exponential ratio type estimator, usual two difference type estimators, Rao (1991) estimator, Gupta and Shabbir (2008) estimator, and Grover and Kaur (2011) estimator. We use six real data sets in simple random sampling and two in stratified sampling for numerical comparisons.     

Adaptive Elastic Net GMM Estimation With Many Invalid Moment Conditions: Simultaneous Model and Moment Selection

This article develops the adaptive elastic net generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator in large-dimensional models with potentially (locally) invalid moment conditions, where both the number of structural parameters and the number of moment conditions may increase with the sample size. The basic idea is to conduct the standard GMM estimation combined with two penalty terms: the adaptively weighted lasso shrinkage and the quadratic regularization. It is a one-step procedure of valid moment condition selection, nonzero structural parameter selection (i.e., model selection), and consistent estimation of the nonzero parameters. The procedure achieves the standard GMM efficiency bound as if we know the valid moment conditions ex ante, for which the quadratic regularization is important. We also study the tuning parameter choice, with which we show that selection consistency still holds without assuming Gaussianity. We apply the new estimation procedure to dynamic panel data models, where both the time and cross-section dimensions are large. The new estimator is robust to possible serial correlations in the regression error terms.