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1.
We develop a series of Bayesian statistical models for estimating survival of a neotropic didelphid marsupial, the Brazilian gracile mouse opossum (Gracilinanus microtarsus). These models are based on the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model (Cormack, 1964 Cormack , R. M. ( 1964 ). Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals . Biometrika 51 : 429438 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; Jolly 1965 Jolly , G. M. ( 1965 ). Explicit estimates from capture-recapture data with both death and immigration stochastic model . Biometrika 52 : 225247 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; Seber 1965 Seber , G. A. F. ( 1965 ). A note on the multiple recapture census . Biometrika 52 : 249259 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) with both survival and recapture rates expressed as a function of covariates using a logit link. The proposed models allow taking into account heterogeneity in capture probability caused by the existence of different groups of individuals in the population. The models were applied to two cohorts (Cohort, 2000, 2001) with the first one including 14 and the second one 15 sampling occasions. The best models for each of the cohorts indicate that G. microtarsus is best described as partially semelparous, a condition in which mortality after the first mating is high but graded over time, with a fraction of males surviving for a second breeding season (Boonstra, 2005 Boonstra , R. ( 2005 ). Equipped for life: the adaptive role of the stress axis in male mammals . Journal of Mammalogy 86 : 236247 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]).  相似文献   

2.
The complication in analyzing tumor data is that the tumors detected in a screening program tend to be slowly progressive tumors, which is the so-called length-biased sampling that is inherent in screening studies. Under the assumption that all subjects have the same tumor growth function, Ghosh (2008 Ghosh , D. ( 2008 ). Proportional hazards regression for cancer studies . Biometrics 64 : 141148 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) developed estimation procedures for proportional hazards model. In this article, by modeling growth function as a function of covariates, we demonstrate that Ghosh (2008 Ghosh , D. ( 2008 ). Proportional hazards regression for cancer studies . Biometrics 64 : 141148 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar])'s approach can be extended to the case when each subject has a specific growth function. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the proposed estimators for the regression parameters in the proportional and additive hazards model.  相似文献   

3.
This article re-examines the Monte Carlo experiments in Seo (1999 Seo , B. ( 1999 ). Distribution theory for unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity . J. Econometrics 91 : 113144 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) for unit root tests with GARCH errors. We report a Monte Carlo study with data generated from various GARCH(1, 1) processes where 0.8 ≤ α + β < 1 and β > α. In this case, the Dickey–Fuller test works better than the Seo test.  相似文献   

4.
We propose an objective Bayesian approach to analyze degradation models. For the linear degradation models, two reference priors are derived, and based on this we show the posterior distributions are proper. Since the lifetime of the product is of interest in practice, a transformation is introduced to obtain the reference priors of the medium lifetime. In the posterior analysis, we explore two sampling procedures: Monte Carlo (MC) procedure and Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) procedure. A real data from Takeda and Suzuki (1983 Takeda , E. , Suzuki , N. ( 1983 ). An empirical model for device degradation due to hot-carrier injection . IEEE Electron Dev. Lett. 4 : 111113 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) is analyzed, and we find the results obtained by both procedures are close to the given literature.  相似文献   

5.
Extending the bifurcating autoregressive (BAR) process (cf. Cowan and Staudte, 1986 Cowan , R. , Staudte , R. G. ( 1986 ). The bifurcating autoregression model in cell lineage studies . Biometrics 42 : 769783 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) to multi-casting (multi-splitting) data, Hwang and Choi (2009 Hwang , S. Y. , Choi , M. S. ( 2009 ). Modeling and large sample estimation for multi-casting autoregression . Statist. Prob. Lett. 79 : 19431950 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) introduced multi-casting autoregression (MCAR, for short) defined on multi-casting tree structured data. This article is concerned with the case when the MCAR model is partially specified only through conditional mean and variance without directly imposing autoregressive (AR) structure. The resulting class of models will be referred to as P-MCAR (partially specified MCAR). The P-MCAR considerably enlarges the class of multi-casting models including (as special cases) MCAR, random coefficient MCAR, conditionally heteroscedastic multi-casting models and binomial-thinning processes. Moment structures for this broad P-MCAR class are investigated. Least squares (LS) estimation method is discussed and asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) of the generalized-LS over ordinary-LS is obtained in a closed form. A simulation study is conducted to illustrate results.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

This paper reviews and extends the literature on the finite sample behavior of tests for sample selection bias. Monte Carlo results show that, when the “multicollinearity problem” identified by Nawata (1993 Nawata , K. ( 1993 ). A note on the estimation of models with sample-selection biases . Economics Letters 42 : 1524 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) is severe, (i) the t-test based on the Heckman–Greene variance estimator can be unreliable, (ii) the Likelihood Ratio test remains powerful, and (iii) nonnormality can be interpreted as severe sample selection bias by Maximum Likelihood methods, leading to negative Wald statistics. We also confirm previous findings (Leung and Yu, 1996 Leung , S. F. , Yu , S. ( 1996 ). On the choice between sample selection and two-part models . Journal of Econometrics 72 : 197229 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) that the standard regression-based t-test (Heckman, 1979 Heckman , J. J. ( 1979 ). Sample selection bias as a specification error . Econometrica 47 : 153161 . [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and the asymptotically efficient Lagrange Multiplier test (Melino, 1982 Melino , A. ( 1982 ). Testing for sample selection bias . Review of Economic Studies 49 : 151153 . [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), are robust to nonnormality but have very little power.  相似文献   

7.
In this research, we employ Bayesian inference and stochastic dynamic programming approaches to select the binomial population with the largest probability of success from n independent Bernoulli populations based upon the sample information. To do this, we first define a probability measure called belief for the event of selecting the best population. Second, we explain the way to model the selection problem using Bayesian inference. Third, we clarify the model by which we improve the beliefs and prove that it converges to select the best population. In this iterative approach, we update the beliefs by taking new observations on the populations under study. This is performed using Bayesian rule and prior beliefs. Fourth, we model the problem of making the decision in a predetermined number of decision stages using the stochastic dynamic programming approach. Finally, in order to understand and to evaluate the proposed methodology, we provide two numerical examples and a comparison study by simulation. The results of the comparison study show that the proposed method performs better than that of Levin and Robbins (1981 Levin , B. , Robbins , H. ( 1981 ). Selecting the highest probability in Binomial or multinomial trials . Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 78 : 46634666 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) for some values of estimated probability of making a correct selection.  相似文献   

8.
Double censoring arises when T represents an outcome variable that can only be accurately measured within a certain range, [L, U], where L and U are the left- and right-censoring variables, respectively. When L is always observed, we consider the empirical likelihood inference for linear transformation models, based on the martingale-type estimating equation proposed by Chen et al. (2002 Chen , K. , Jin , Z. , Ying , Z. ( 2002 ). Semiparametric analysis of transformation models with censored data . Biometrika 89 : 659668 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). It is demonstrated that both the approach of Lu and Liang (2006 Lu , W. , Liang , Y. ( 2006 ). Empirical likelihood inference for linear transformation models . Journal of Multivariate Analysis 97 : 15861599 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and that of Yu et al. (2011 Yu , W. , Sun , Y. , Zheng , M. ( 2011 ). Empirical likelihood method for linear transformation models . Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 63 : 331346 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) can be extended to doubly censored data. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the empirical likelihood ratio methods.  相似文献   

9.
A variety of statistical approaches have been suggested in the literature for the analysis of bounded outcome scores (BOS). In this paper, we suggest a statistical approach when BOSs are repeatedly measured over time and used as predictors in a regression model. Instead of directly using the BOS as a predictor, we propose to extend the approaches suggested in [16 E. Lesaffre, D. Rizopoulos, and R. Tsonaka, The logistics-transform for bounded outcome scores, Biostatistics 8 (2007), pp. 7285. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxj034[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar],21 M. Molas and E. Lesaffre, A comparison of the three random effects approaches to analyse repeated bounded outcome scores with an application in a stroke revalidation study, Stat. Med. 27 (2008), pp. 66126633. doi: 10.1002/sim.3432[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar],28 R. Tsonaka, D. Rizopoulos, and E. Lesaffre, Power and sample size calculations for discrete bounded outcome scores, Stat. Med. 25 (2006), pp. 42414252. doi: 10.1002/sim.2679[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]] to a joint modeling setting. Our approach is illustrated on longitudinal profiles of multiple patients’ reported outcomes to predict the current clinical status of rheumatoid arthritis patients by a disease activities score of 28 joints (DAS28). Both a maximum likelihood as well as a Bayesian approach is developed.  相似文献   

10.
《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2012,41(16-17):3198-3210
The randomized response (RR) technique with two decks of cards proposed by Odumade and Singh (2009 Odumade , O. , Singh , S. ( 2009 ). Efficient use of two deck of cards in randomized response sampling . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 38 : 439446 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) can always be made more efficient than the RR techniques proposed by Warner (1965 Warner , S. L. ( 1965 ). Randomize response: A survey technique for eliminating evasive answer bias . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 60 : 6369 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Mangat and Singh (1990 Mangat , N. S. , Singh , R. ( 1990 ). An alternative randomized response procedure . Biometrika 77 : 349442 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), and Mangat (1994 Mangat , N. S. ( 1994 ). An improved randomized response strategy . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 56 : 9395 . [Google Scholar]) by adjusting the proportion of cards in the decks. The proposed method of Odumade and Singh (2009 Odumade , O. , Singh , S. ( 2009 ). Efficient use of two deck of cards in randomized response sampling . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 38 : 439446 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) is limited to simple random sampling with replacement (SRSWR) sampling only. In this article, generalization of Odumade and Singh strategy is provided for complex survey designs and a wider class of estimators. The results of Odumade and Singh (2009 Odumade , O. , Singh , S. ( 2009 ). Efficient use of two deck of cards in randomized response sampling . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 38 : 439446 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) can be derived from the proposed method as a special case.  相似文献   

11.
The reliability allocation for computerized numerical control lathes can be seen as a MCDM problem. In a previous article (Hou, 2011 Hou , F. ( 2011 ). A Semiring-based study of judgment matrices: properties and models . Inform. Sciences 181 : 21662176 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), the fixed point equations corresponding to the priority vectors of consistent judgment matrices were given under semiring operations. The existence and uniqueness of the min-normalized fixed point were also proved. This article shows the application of the decision fixed point. First, fixed point-based aggregation rule with rank preservation is proposed for AHP. Then, counterpart results under a semiring isomorphism are presented for the FPR-AHP, where the preference information is presented by additive reciprocal judgment matrices (fuzzy preference relations). Third, the proposed aggregation rules are extended to the data incorporation of MCDM problems. Finally, application to the reliability allocation for computerized numerical control lathes is investigated.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT

With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty and prior information into the analysis of the replication attempt by their design. The Replication Bayes factor, introduced by Verhagen and Wagenmakers (2014 Verhagen, J., and Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2014), “Bayesian Tests to Quantify the Result of a Replication Attempt,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143, 14571475. DOI: 10.1037/a0036731.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), provides quantitative, relative evidence in favor or against a successful replication. In previous work by Verhagen and Wagenmakers (2014 Verhagen, J., and Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2014), “Bayesian Tests to Quantify the Result of a Replication Attempt,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143, 14571475. DOI: 10.1037/a0036731.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), it was limited to the case of t-tests. In this article, the Replication Bayes factor is extended to F-tests in multigroup, fixed-effect ANOVA designs. Simulations and examples are presented to facilitate the understanding and to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach. Finally, the Replication Bayes factor is compared to other Bayesian and frequentist approaches and discussed in the context of replication attempts. R code to calculate Replication Bayes factors and to reproduce the examples in the article is available at https://osf.io/jv39h/.  相似文献   

13.
In this article, we propose a nonparametric method to test for symmetry in bivariate data. By using the extension of Fisher's exact treatment for 2 × 2 contingency tables proposed by Freeman and Halton (1951 Freeman , G. H. , Halton , J. H. ( 1951 ). Note on an exact treatment of contingency tables, goodness of fit and other problems of significance . Biometrika 38 : 141149 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), we can test the hypothesis of equal distribution for two samples of integer valued variables. Then, by counting the number of observations belonging to each cell of a symmetric, appropriately built grid, we can produce the two samples of integers required to use this test for equal distribution. The resulting test for symmetry is potentially extendible to higher dimensions. A simulation study is performed to compare with some known tests (Bowker, 1948 Bowker , A. H. ( 1948 ). A test for symmetry in contingency tables . Journal of the American Statistical Association 43 : 572574 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; Hollander, 1971 Hollander , M. ( 1971 ). A nonparametric test for bivariate symmetry . Biometrika 58-1 : 203212 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]; and its improvement given in Krampe and Kuhnt, 2007 Krampe , A. , Kuhnt , S. ( 2007 ). Bowker's test for symmetry and modifications within the algebraic framework . Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 51 : 41244142 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). Our proposal represents a competitive option as a test for symmetry.  相似文献   

14.
We carried out a simulation study based on the methodology of Newcombe (1998 Newcombe , R. G. ( 1998 ). Interval estimation for the difference between independent proportions: comparison of eleven methods . Statist. Med. 17 : 873890 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) to compare tests for the difference of two binomial proportions by applying different continuity corrections on saddlepoint approximation to tail probabilities. In this article, we proposed a new continuity correction based on the least common multiple of two sample sizes. We evaluated that the best test should have the actual Type I error rates that are, on the whole, closest to α, but not exceeding α, where α is nominal level of significance.  相似文献   

15.
We propose a class of estimators for the population mean when there are missing data in the data set. Obtaining the mean square error equations of the proposed estimators, we show the conditions where the proposed estimators are more efficient than the sample mean, ratio-type estimators, and the estimators in Singh and Horn (2000 Singh , S. , Horn , S. ( 2000 ). Compromised imputation in survey sampling . Metrika 51 : 267276 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Singh and Deo (2003 Singh , S. , Deo , B. (2003). Imputation by power transformation. Statist. Pap. 44:555579.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) in the case of missing data. These conditions are also supported by a numerical example.  相似文献   

16.
We introduce a score test to identify longitudinal biomarkers or surrogates for a time to event outcome. This method is an extension of Henderson et al. (2000 Henderson , R. , Diggle , P. , Dobson , A. ( 2000 ). Joint modelling of longitudinal measurements and event time data . Biostatistics 1 ( 4 ): 465480 .[Crossref], [PubMed] [Google Scholar], 2002 Henderson , R. , Diggle , P. , Dobson , A. ( 2002 ). Identification and efficacy of longitudinal markers for survival . Biostatistics 3 ( 1 ): 3350 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). In this article, a score test is based on a joint likelihood function which combines the likelihood functions of the longitudinal biomarkers and the survival times. Henderson et al. (2000 Henderson , R. , Diggle , P. , Dobson , A. ( 2000 ). Joint modelling of longitudinal measurements and event time data . Biostatistics 1 ( 4 ): 465480 .[Crossref], [PubMed] [Google Scholar], 2002 Henderson , R. , Diggle , P. , Dobson , A. ( 2002 ). Identification and efficacy of longitudinal markers for survival . Biostatistics 3 ( 1 ): 3350 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) assumed that the same random effect exists in the longitudinal component and in the Cox model and then they can derive a score test to determine if a longitudinal biomarker is associated with time to an event. We extend this work and our score test is based on a joint likelihood function which allows other random effects to be present in the survival function.

Considering heterogeneous baseline hazards in individuals, we use simulations to explore how the factors can influence the power of a score test to detect the association of a longitudinal biomarker and the survival time. These factors include the functional form of the random effects from the longitudinal biomarkers, in the different number of individuals, and time points per individual. We illustrate our method using a prothrombin index as a predictor of survival in liver cirrhosis patients.  相似文献   

17.
This article presents results concerning the performance of both single equation and system panel cointegration tests and estimators. The study considers the tests developed in Pedroni (1999 Pedroni , P. ( 1999 ). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 : 653670 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], 2004 Pedroni , P. ( 2004 ). Panel cointegration. Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis . Econometric Theory 20 : 597625 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Westerlund (2005 Westerlund , J. ( 2005 ). New simple tests for panel cointegration . Econometric Reviews 24 : 297316 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Larsson et al. (2001 Larsson , R. , Lyhagen , J. , Löthgren , M. ( 2001 ). Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels . Econometrics Journal 4 : 109142 .[Crossref] [Google Scholar]), and Breitung (2005 Breitung , J. ( 2005 ). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data . Econometric Reviews 24 : 151173 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and the estimators developed in Phillips and Moon (1999 Phillips , P. C. B. , Moon , H. R. ( 1999 ). Linear regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data . Econometrica 67 : 10571111 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Pedroni (2000 Pedroni , P. ( 2000 ). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels . In: Baltagi , B. H. , ed. Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels . Amsterdam : Elsevier , pp. 93130 .[Crossref] [Google Scholar]), Kao and Chiang (2000 Kao , C. , Chiang , M.-H. ( 2000 ). On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data . In: Baltagi , B. H. , ed. Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels . Amsterdam : Elsevier , pp. 179222 .[Crossref] [Google Scholar]), Mark and Sul (2003 Mark , N. C. , Sul , D. ( 2003 ). Cointegration vector estimation by panel dynamic OLS and long-run money demand . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65 : 655680 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), Pedroni (2001 Pedroni , P. ( 2001 ). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels . Review of Economics and Statistics 83 : 13711375 . [Google Scholar]), and Breitung (2005 Breitung , J. ( 2005 ). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data . Econometric Reviews 24 : 151173 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). We study the impact of stable autoregressive roots approaching the unit circle, of I(2) components, of short-run cross-sectional correlation and of cross-unit cointegration on the performance of the tests and estimators. The data are simulated from three-dimensional individual specific VAR systems with cointegrating ranks varying from zero to two for fourteen different panel dimensions. The usual specifications of deterministic components are considered.  相似文献   

18.
Huang (2010 Huang , K. C. ( 2010 ). Unbiased estimators of mean, variance and sensitivity level for quantitative characteristics in finite population sampling . Metrika 71 : 341352 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) proposed an optional randomized response model using a linear combination scrambling which is a generalization of the multiplicative scrambling of Eichhorn and Hayre (1983 Eichhorn , B. H. , Hayre , L. S. ( 1983 ). Scrambled randomized response methods for obtaining sensitive quantitative data . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 7 : 307316 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and the additive scrambling of Gupta et al. (2006, 2010). In this article, we discuss two main issues. (1) Can the Huang (2010 Huang , K. C. ( 2010 ). Unbiased estimators of mean, variance and sensitivity level for quantitative characteristics in finite population sampling . Metrika 71 : 341352 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) model be improved further by using a two-stage approach?; (2) Does the linear combination scrambling provide any benefit over the additive scrambling of Gupta et al. (2010 Gupta , S. N. , Shabbir , J. , Sehra , S. ( 2010 ). Mean and sensitivity estimation in optional randomized response models . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 140 : 28702874 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar])? We will note that the answer to the first question is “yes” but the answer to the second question is “no.”  相似文献   

19.
Given a prognostic model based on one population, one may ask: Can this model be used to accurately predict disease in a different population? When the underlying rate of disease differs in the new population, the model must be calibrated. van Houwelingen (2000 van Houwelingen , H. ( 2000 ). Validation, calibration, revision and combination of prognostic survival models . Statistics in Medicine 19 : 34013415 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) considered this calibration problem focusing on proportional hazards models. We extend the validation by calibration to the log-logistic accelerated failure time model. We use calibration of proportional hazards models and log-logistic accelerated failure time models to examine whether a survival model based on the Framingham Heart Study can be applied to diverse studies around the world.  相似文献   

20.
In this note, we show that the estimator and the following results given by Zhong and Yang (2007 Zhong , Z. , Yang , H. ( 2007 ). Ridge estimation to the restricted linear model . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 36 : 20992115 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) are the same with that of Groß (2003 Groß , J. ( 2003 ). Restricted ridge estimation . Statist. Probab. Lett. 65 : 5764 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]).  相似文献   

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