A general reduction method for n–variate normal orthant probability

Let X₁,X₂,…,X_n be n normal variates with zero means, unit variances and correlation matrix {p_ij). The orthant probability is the probability that all of the X₁'s are simultaneously positive. This paper presents a general reduction method by extending the method of Childs (1967), and shows that the probability can be represented by a linear combination of some multivariate integrals of order([n/2]?1). As illustrations, we apply the proposed method to the quadrivariate and six–variate cases. Some numerical results are also given.     

Admissibility intervals for linear correlation coefficients

The correlation coefficient is widely used to quantify the degree of association between two quantitative variables. By resorting to the geometric representation of the linear correlation coefficient, it is possible to calculate the upper and lower bounds of the correlation coefficient between two variables x ₁,x ₂ when the correlation coefficients with a third variable x ₃ are available. Implications in observational studies, where x ₃ could be a proxy of a target variable x ₂, whose direct measurement is too expensive or impractical, are discussed.     

On the validation of fiducial techniques

A structured model is essentially a family of random vectors X_θ defined on a probability space with values in a sample space. If, for a given sample value x and for each ω in the probability space, there is at most one parameter value θ for which X_θ(ω) is equal to x, then the model is called additive at x. When a certain conditional distribution exists, a frequency interpretation specific to additive structured models holds, and is summarized in a unique structured distribution for the parameter. Many of the techniques used by Fisher in deriving and handling his fiducial probability distribution are shown to be valid when dealing with a structured distribution.     

Confidence Intervals for Nonparametric Regression Functions with Missing Data

Suppose that we have a nonparametric regression model Y = m(X) + ε with X ∈ R^p, where X is a random design variable and is observed completely, and Y is the response variable and some Y-values are missing at random. Based on the “complete” data sets for Y after nonaprametric regression imputation and inverse probability weighted imputation, two estimators of the regression function m(x₀) for fixed x₀ ∈ R^p are proposed. Asymptotic normality of two estimators is established, which is used to construct normal approximation-based confidence intervals for m(x₀). We also construct an empirical likelihood (EL) statistic for m(x₀) with limiting distribution of χ²₁, which is used to construct an EL confidence interval for m(x₀).     

ON ASYMPTOTIC OPTIMALITY OF SOME TESTS FOR EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

The probability density function (pdf) of a two parameter exponential distribution is given by f(x; p, s?) =s?^-1 exp {-(x - ρ)/s?} for x≥ρ and 0 elsewhere, where 0 < ρ < ∞ and 0 < s?∞. Suppose we have k independent random samples where the ith sample is drawn from the ith population having the pdf f(x; ρ_i, s?_i), 0 < ρ_i < ∞, 0 < s?_i < s?_i < and f(x; ρ, s?) is as given above. Let X_i1 < X_i2 <… < X_iri denote the first r_i order statistics in a random sample of size n_i, drawn from the ith population with pdf f(x; ρ_i, s?_i), i = 1, 2,…, k. In this paper we show that the well known tests of hypotheses about the parameters ρ_i, s?_i, i = 1, 2,…, k based on the above observations are asymptotically optimal in the sense of Bahadur efficiency. Our results are similar to those for normal distributions.     

A characterization of invariant power-series abundance distributions

Consider a population the individuals in which can be classified into groups. Let y, the number of individuals in a group, be distributed according to a probability function f(y;ø_o) where the functional form f is known. The random variable y cannot be observed directly, and hence a random sample of groups cannot be obtained. Consider a random sample of N individuals from the population. Suppose the N individuals are distributed into S groups with x₁, x₂, …, x_S representatives respectively. The random variable x, the number of individuals in a group in the sample, will be a fraction of its population counterpart y, and the distributions of x and y need not have the same functional form. If the two random variables x and y have the same functional form for their distributions, then the particular common distribution is called an invariant abundance distribution. The paper provides a characterization of invariant abundance distributions in the class of power-series distributions.     

Asymptotic Tail Properties of Student's t-Distribution

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the probability density function (pdf) and the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of Student's t-distribution with ν > 0 degrees of freedom (t _ν for short) for ν tending to infinity when the argument x = x _ν of the pdf (cdf) depends on ν and tends to ± ∞ (?∞). To this end, we consider the ratio of the pdf's (cdf's) of the t _ν- and the standard normal distribution. Depending on the choice of the argument x _ν, the pdf-ratio (cdf-ratio) tends to 1, a fixed value greater than 1, or to ∞. As a byproduct, we obtain a result for Mill' ratio when x _ν → ?∞.     

A new class of skew-symmetric distributions and related families

In this work, we investigate a new class of skew-symmetric distributions, which includes the distributions with the probability density function (pdf) given by g _α(x)=2f(x) G(α x), introduced by Azzalini [A class of distributions which includes the normal ones, Scand. J. Statist. 12 (1985), pp. 171–178]. We call this new class as the symmetric-skew-symmetric family and it has the pdf proportional to f(x) G _β(α x), where G _β(x) is the cumulative distribution function of g _β(x). We give some basic properties for the symmetric-skew-symmetric family and study the particular case obtained from the normal distribution.     

GEOMETRIC DECAY OF THE STEADY-STATE PROBABILITIES IN A QUASI-BIRTH-AND-DEATH PROCESS WITH A COUNTABLE NUMBER OF PHASES

A sufficient condition is proved for geometric decay of the steady-state probabilities in a quasi-birth-and-death process having a countable number of phases in each level. If there is a positive number η and positive vectors x = (x _i) and y = (y _j ) satisfying some equations and inequalities, the steady-state probability π _mi decays geometrically with rate η in the sense π _mi ～ cη ^m x _i as m → ∞. As an example, the result is applied to a two-queue system with shorter queue discipline.     

Nonparametric estimation of a multivariate multiple regression function

Let (X₁, X₂, Y₁, Y₂) be a four dimensional random variable having the joint probability density function f(x₁, x₂, y₁, y₂). In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the regression function \({{E[(_{Y_2 }^{Y_1 } )} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{E[(_{Y_2 }^{Y_1 } )} {_{X_2 = X_2 }^{X_1 = X_1 } }}} \right. \kern-0em} {_{X_2 = X_2 }^{X_1 = X_1 } }}]\) on the basis of a random sample of size n. We have proved that under certain regularity conditions the kernel estimate of this regression function is uniformly strongly consistent. We have also shown that under certain conditions the estimate is asymptotically normally distributed.     

A lower bound for the transition density function of a stochastic differential equation

Let W_t be a one-dimensional Brownian motion on the probability space (Ω,F,P), and let dx_t = a(x_t)dt + b(x_t)dw_t, b²(x) > 0, be a one-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation. For a(x) = a₀ + a₁x + … + a_nxⁿ on a bounded interval we obtain a lower bound for p(t,x,y), the transition density function of the homogeneous Markov process x_t, depending directly on the coefficients a₀,a₁, …, a_n, and b(x).     

Density estimation for samples satisfying a certain absolute regularity condition

Let {ξ_i} be an absolutely regular sequence of identically distributed random variables having common density function f(x). Let H_k(x,y) (k=1, 2,…) be a sequence of Borel-measurable functions and f_n(x)=n^?1(H_n(x,ξ₁)+…+H_n(x,ξ_n)) the empirical density function. In this paper, the asymptotic property of the probability P(sup_x|f_n(x)?f(x)|>ε) (n→∞) is studied.     

Partial and inverse autocorrelations in portmanteau-type tests for time series

We present a decomposition of the correlation coefficient between x_t and x_t?k into three terms that include the partial and inverse autocorrelations. The first term accounts for the portion of the autocorrelation that is explained by the inner variables {x_t?1 , x_t?2 , …, x _{t? k+1}}, the second one measures the portion explained by the outer variables {x _t+1, x _t+2, } ∪ {x _t?k?1, x _t?k?2,…} and the third term measures the correlation between x _t and x_t?k given all other variables. These terms, squared and summed, can form the basis of three portmanteau-type tests that are able to detect both deviation from white noise and lack of fit of an entertained model. Quantiles of their asymptotic sample distributions are complicated to derive at an adequate level of accuracy, so they are approximated using the Monte Carlo method. A simulation experiment is carried out to investigate significance levels and power of each test, and compare them to the portmanteau test.     

Generating correlated random vector involving discrete variables

For the issue of generating correlated random vector containing discrete variables, one major obstacle is to determine a suitable correlation coefficient ρ_z in normal space for a specified correlation coefficient ρ_x. This paper develops a method to solve this problem. First, the double integral evaluated for ρ_x is transformed into independent standard uniform space, then, a Quasi Monte Carlo method is introduced to calculate the double integral. For a given ρ_x, an appropriate ρ_z is determined by a false position method. Compared with existing methodologies, the proposed method is less efficient, but it is relatively easy to implement.     

ASYMPTOTIC AND SMALL SAMPLE STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF RANDOM FRAILTY VARIANCE ESTIMATES FOR SHARED GAMMA FRAILTY MODELS

This paper concerns maximum likelihood estimation for the semiparametric shared gamma frailty model; that is the Cox proportional hazards model with the hazard function multiplied by a gamma random variable with mean 1 and variance θ. A hybrid ML-EM algorithm is applied to 26 400 simulated samples of 400 to 8000 observations with Weibull hazards. The hybrid algorithm is much faster than the standard EM algorithm, faster than standard direct maximum likelihood (ML, Newton Raphson) for large samples, and gives almost identical results to the penalised likelihood method in S-PLUS 2000. When the true value θ₀ of θ is zero, the estimates of θ are asymptotically distributed as a 50–50 mixture between a point mass at zero and a normal random variable on the positive axis. When θ₀ > 0, the asymptotic distribution is normal. However, for small samples, simulations suggest that the estimates of θ are approximately distributed as an x ? (100 ? x)% mixture, 0 ≤ x ≤ 50, between a point mass at zero and a normal random variable on the positive axis even for θ₀ > 0. In light of this, p-values and confidence intervals need to be adjusted accordingly. We indicate an approximate method for carrying out the adjustment.     

Probability inequalities for continuous unimodal random variables with finite support

A paramecer-free Bernstein-type upper bound is derived for the probability that the sum S of n i.i.d, unimodal random variables with finite support, X₁ ,X₂,…,X_n, exceeds its mean E(S) by the positive value nt. The bound for P{S - nμ ≥ nt} depends on the range of the summands, the sample size n, the positive number t, and the type of unimodality assumed for X_i. A two-sided Gauss-type probability inequality for sums of strongly unimodal random variables is also given. The new bounds are contrasted to Hoeffding's inequality for bounded random variables and to the Bienayme-Chebyshev inequality. Finally, the new inequalities are applied to a classic probability inequality example first published by Savage (1961).     

A short table for computing normal orthant probabilities of dimensions 4 and 5

A short of the quadravariate normal orthant probability P ₄ is presented which, except for near singular correlation matrices, is generally accurate to 7+ significant digits. Since the quinvariate orthant probability P ₅is expressed in terms of five copies of P ₄, such a table is also useful for computing P ₅