Bayesian Estimators for Small Area Models when Auxiliary Information is Measured with Error

Small area estimators in linear models are typically expressed as a convex combination of direct estimators and synthetic estimators from a suitable model. When auxiliary information used in the model is measured with error, a new estimator, accounting for the measurement error in the covariates, has been proposed in the literature. Recently, for area‐level model, Ybarra & Lohr (Biometrika, 95, 2008, 919) suggested a suitable modification to the estimates of small area means based on Fay & Herriot (J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 74, 1979, 269) model where some of the covariates are measured with error. They used a frequentist approach based on the method of moments. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we propose to rewrite the measurement error model as a hierarchical model; we use improper non‐informative priors on the model parameters and show, under a mild condition, that the joint posterior distribution is proper and the marginal posterior distributions of the model parameters have finite variances. We conduct a simulation study exploring different scenarios. The Bayesian predictors we propose show smaller empirical mean squared errors than the frequentist predictors of Ybarra & Lohr (Biometrika, 95, 2008, 919), and they seem also to be more stable in terms of variability and bias. We apply the proposed methodology to two real examples.     

Bayesian Estimators for Small Area Models Shrinking Both Means and Variances

For small area estimation of area‐level data, the Fay–Herriot model is extensively used as a model‐based method. In the Fay–Herriot model, it is conventionally assumed that the sampling variances are known, whereas estimators of sampling variances are used in practice. Thus, the settings of knowing sampling variances are unrealistic, and several methods are proposed to overcome this problem. In this paper, we assume the situation where the direct estimators of the sampling variances are available as well as the sample means. Using this information, we propose a Bayesian yet objective method producing shrinkage estimation of both means and variances in the Fay–Herriot model. We consider the hierarchical structure for the sampling variances, and we set uniform prior on model parameters to keep objectivity of the proposed model. For validity of the posterior inference, we show under mild conditions that the posterior distribution is proper and has finite variances. We investigate the numerical performance through simulation and empirical studies.     

A MCMC algorithm to fit a general exchangeable model

Consider the exchangeable Bayesian hierarchical model where observations y_i are independently distributed from sampling densities with unknown means, the means µi, are a random sample from a distribution g, and the parameters of g are assigned a known distribution h. A simple algorithm is presented for summarizing the posterior distribution based on Gibbs sampling and the Metropolis algorithm. The software program Matlab is used to implement the algorithm and provide a graphical output analysis. An binomial example is used to illustrate the flexibility of modeling possible using this algorithm. Methods of model checking and extensions to hierarchical regression modeling are discussed.     

Robust Bayesian estimation of a bathtub-shaped distribution under progressive Type-II censoring

The bathtub-shaped failure rate function has been used for modeling the life spans of a number of electronic and mechanical products, as well as for modeling the life spans of humans, especially when some of the data are censored. This article addresses robust methods for the estimation of unknown parameters in a two-parameter distribution with a bathtub-shaped failure rate function based on progressive Type-II censored samples. Here, a class of flexible priors is considered by using the hierarchical structure of a conjugate prior distribution, and corresponding posterior distributions are obtained in a closed-form. Then, based on the square error loss function, Bayes estimators of unknown parameters are derived, which depend on hyperparameters as parameters of the conjugate prior. In order to eliminate the hyperparameters, hierarchical Bayesian estimation methods are proposed, and these proposed estimators are compared to one another based on the mean squared error, through Monte Carlo simulations for various progressively Type-II censoring schemes. Finally, a real dataset is presented for the purpose of illustration.     

AN ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO BAYESIAN LINEAR MODEL CALCULATIONS

A framework is described for organizing and understanding the computations necessary to obtain the posterior mean of a vector of linear effects in a normal linear model, conditional on the parameters that determine covariance structure. The approach has two major uses; firstly, as a pedagogical tool in the derivation of formulae, and secondly, as a practical tool for developing computational strategies without needing complicated matrix formulae that are often unwieldy in complex hierarchical models. The proposed technique is based upon symbolic application of the sweep operator SWP to an appropriate tableau of means and covariances. The method is illustrated with standard linear model specifications, including the so-called mixed model, with both fixed and random effects.     

A comparison of nonparametric priors in hierarchical mixture modelling for AFT regression

We will pursue a Bayesian nonparametric approach in the hierarchical mixture modelling of lifetime data in two situations: density estimation, when the distribution is a mixture of parametric densities with a nonparametric mixing measure, and accelerated failure time (AFT) regression modelling, when the same type of mixture is used for the distribution of the error term. The Dirichlet process is a popular choice for the mixing measure, yielding a Dirichlet process mixture model for the error; as an alternative, we also allow the mixing measure to be equal to a normalized inverse-Gaussian prior, built from normalized inverse-Gaussian finite dimensional distributions, as recently proposed in the literature. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques will be used to estimate the predictive distribution of the survival time, along with the posterior distribution of the regression parameters. A comparison between the two models will be carried out on the grounds of their predictive power and their ability to identify the number of components in a given mixture density.     

行政记录整合的贝叶斯分层记录链接模型及应用

记录链接的技术问题与统计理论密切相关,尤其是在建立记录链接分类规则时需要构建统计模型,识别关键变量以完成数据匹配。在贝叶斯框架下构建分层模型整合行政记录,通过多元回归可以实现匹配错误率的估计,而且一对一限制下的记录链接允许通过模块反映记录信息的来源变化,基于MCMC模拟的后验分布计算方便,有助于提高数据整合效率。     

Robust pairwise multiple comparisons under short-tailed symmetric distributions

In one-way ANOVA, most of the pairwise multiple comparison procedures depend on normality assumption of errors. In practice, errors have non-normal distributions so frequently. Therefore, it is very important to develop robust estimators of location and the associated variance under non-normality. In this paper, we consider the estimation of one-way ANOVA model parameters to make pairwise multiple comparisons under short-tailed symmetric (STS) distribution. The classical least squares method is neither efficient nor robust and maximum likelihood estimation technique is problematic in this situation. Modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimation technique gives the opportunity to estimate model parameters in closed forms under non-normal distributions. Hence, the use of MML estimators in the test statistic is proposed for pairwise multiple comparisons under STS distribution. The efficiency and power comparisons of the test statistic based on sample mean, trimmed mean, wave and MML estimators are given and the robustness of the test obtained using these estimators under plausible alternatives and inlier model are examined. It is demonstrated that the test statistic based on MML estimators is efficient and robust and the corresponding test is more powerful and having smallest Type I error.     

Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit

Summary. We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure p _D for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general p _D approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's information and the posterior covariance, which in normal models is the trace of the 'hat' matrix projecting observations onto fitted values. Its properties in exponential families are explored. The posterior mean deviance is suggested as a Bayesian measure of fit or adequacy, and the contributions of individual observations to the fit and complexity can give rise to a diagnostic plot of deviance residuals against leverages. Adding p _D to the posterior mean deviance gives a deviance information criterion for comparing models, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification. The procedure is illustrated in some examples, and comparisons are drawn with alternative Bayesian and classical proposals. Throughout it is emphasized that the quantities required are trivial to compute in a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis.     

Bayesian quantile regression for longitudinal data models

In this paper, we discuss a fully Bayesian quantile inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for longitudinal data models with random effects. Under the assumption of error term subject to asymmetric Laplace distribution, we establish a hierarchical Bayesian model and obtain the posterior distribution of unknown parameters at τ-th level. We overcome the current computational limitations using two approaches. One is the general MCMC technique with Metropolis–Hastings algorithm and another is the Gibbs sampling from the full conditional distribution. These two methods outperform the traditional frequentist methods under a wide array of simulated data models and are flexible enough to easily accommodate changes in the number of random effects and in their assumed distribution. We apply the Gibbs sampling method to analyse a mouse growth data and some different conclusions from those in the literatures are obtained.     

Robust Bayesian analysis for exponential parameters under generalized Type-II progressive hybrid censoring

The Type-II progressive hybrid censoring scheme has received wide attention, but it has a disadvantage in that long time may be required to complete the life test. The generalized progressive Type-II hybrid censoring scheme has recently been proposed to solve this problem. Under the censoring scheme, the time on test does not exceed a predetermined time. In this paper, we propose a robust Bayesian approach based on a hierarchical structure when the generalized progressive Type-II hybrid censored sample has a two-parameter exponential distribution. For unknown parameters, marginal posterior distributions are provided in closed forms, and their statistical properties are discussed. To examine the robustness of the proposed method, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted and a real data set is analyzed. Further, the quality and adequacy of the proposed model are evaluated in an analysis based on the real data.     

Assessment of Athens's metro passenger behaviour via a multiranked probit model

Summary. We deal with real data from a stated preference experiment which was designed to explain and predict passengers' behaviour towards three main means of transportation in the city of Athens. The resulting model formulations give rise to the so-called multiranked probit model which emerges from a series of ranking responses in a set of hypothetical scenarios, i.e. we enhance the multinomial probit model with the embodiment of a utility threshold parameter which deals realistically with ranking responses, intransitivity of indifference between alternatives or ties. Moreover, we ensure identifiable parameters for the covariance matrix of the underlying utility vectors, we include a hierarchical step that models the unit-specific utility thresholds as exchangeably distributed and, finally, we permit the use of heavy-tailed distributions for the stochastic error term. Our proposed methodology is Bayesian and the implementation tool adopted is Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior output consists of practical information such as travel characteristics (e.g. walking times and waiting times), expressed either in drachmas per hour or in minutes of in-vehicle time, and 95% credible intervals of the probability of choosing a particular mode of transportation. These are key factors in determining whether a policy has positive or negative net benefits.     

Centered-Residuals-Based Moment Estimator and Test for Stochastic Frontier Models

The composed error of a stochastic frontier (SF) model consists of two random variables, and the identification of the model relies heavily on the distribution assumptions for each of these variables. While the literature has put much effort into applying various SF models to a wide range of empirical problems, little has been done to test the distribution assumptions of these two variables. In this article, by exploiting the specification structures of the SF model, we propose a centered-residuals-based method of moments which can be easily and flexibly applied to testing the distribution assumptions on both of the random variables and to estimating the model parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. We also provide two empirical examples to demonstrate the use of the proposed estimator and test using real data.     

Nonparametric multiple comparison procedures for unbalanced one-way factorial designs

In this paper, we present several nonparametric multiple comparison (MC) procedures for unbalanced one-way factorial designs. The nonparametric hypotheses are formulated by using normalized distribution functions and the comparisons are carried out on the basis of the relative treatment effects. The proposed test statistics take the form of linear pseudo rank statistics and the asymptotic joint distribution of the pseudo rank statistics for testing treatments versus control satisfies the multivariate totally positive of order two condition irrespective of the correlations among the rank statistics. Therefore, in the context of MCs of treatments versus control, the nonparametric Simes test is validated for the global testing of the intersection hypothesis. For simultaneous testing of individual hypotheses, the nonparametric Hochberg stepup procedure strongly controls the familywise type I error rate asymptotically. With regard to all pairwise comparisons, we generalize various single-step and stagewise procedures to perform comparisons on the relative treatment effects. To further compare with normal theory counterparts, the asymptotic relative efficiencies of the nonparametric MC procedures with respect to the parametric MC procedures are derived under a sequence of Pitman alternatives in a nonparametric location shift model for unbalanced one-way layouts. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to demonstrate the validity and power of the proposed nonparametric MC procedures.     

The generalized Gudermannian distribution: inference and volatility modelling

In this paper, we introduce a new distribution, called generalized Gudermannian (GG) distribution, and its skew extension for GARCH models in modelling daily Value-at-Risk (VaR). Basic structural properties of the proposed distribution are obtained including probability density and cumulative distribution functions, moments, and stochastic representation. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate unknown parameters of the proposed model and finite sample performance of maximum likelihood estimates are evaluated by means of Monte-Carlo simulation study. The real data application on Nikkei 225 index is given to demonstrate the performance of GARCH model specified under skew extension of GG innovation distribution against normal, Student's-t, skew normal and generalized error and skew generalized error distributions in terms of the accuracy of VaR forecasts. The empirical results show that the GARCH model with GG innovation distribution produces the most accurate VaR forecasts for all confidence levels.     

Simultaneous estimation of gamma means using a hierarchical generalized linear model

The problem of simultaneously estimating p Gamma means is investigated when the means are believed a priori to satisfy an r-dimensional generalized linear model. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model to reflect the uncertainty in the linear model, approximate methods are proposed to compute the posterior densities. The resulting estimator shrinks the usual estimator toward a prior estimator where the size of the shrinkage depends upon the agreement of the observed data with the proposed generalized linear model.     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.     

Penalized weighted composite quantile regression in the linear regression model with heavy-tailed autocorrelated errors

In this paper, a penalized weighted composite quantile regression estimation procedure is proposed to estimate unknown regression parameters and autoregression coefficients in the linear regression model with heavy-tailed autoregressive errors. Under some conditions, we show that the proposed estimator possesses the oracle properties. In addition, we introduce an iterative algorithm to achieve the proposed optimization problem, and use a data-driven method to choose the tuning parameters. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed new estimation method is robust and works much better than the least squares based method when there are outliers in the dataset or the autoregressive error distribution follows heavy-tailed distributions. Moreover, the proposed estimator works comparably to the least squares based estimator when there are no outliers and the error is normal. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to analyze the electricity demand dataset.     

Variable selection in quantile regression via Gibbs sampling

Due to computational challenges and non-availability of conjugate prior distributions, Bayesian variable selection in quantile regression models is often a difficult task. In this paper, we address these two issues for quantile regression models. In particular, we develop an informative stochastic search variable selection (ISSVS) for quantile regression models that introduces an informative prior distribution. We adopt prior structures which incorporate historical data into the current data by quantifying them with a suitable prior distribution on the model parameters. This allows ISSVS to search more efficiently in the model space and choose the more likely models. In addition, a Gibbs sampler is derived to facilitate the computation of the posterior probabilities. A major advantage of ISSVS is that it avoids instability in the posterior estimates for the Gibbs sampler as well as convergence problems that may arise from choosing vague priors. Finally, the proposed methods are illustrated with both simulation and real data.     

A Partially Linear Model Using a Gaussian Process Prior

A partially linear model is a semiparametric regression model that consists of parametric and nonparametric regression components in an additive form. In this article, we propose a partially linear model using a Gaussian process regression approach and consider statistical inference of the proposed model. Based on the proposed model, the estimation procedure is described by posterior distributions of the unknown parameters and model comparisons between parametric representation and semi- and nonparametric representation are explored. Empirical analysis of the proposed model is performed with synthetic data and real data applications.