Optimal control strategies for dividend payments and capital injections in compound Markov binomial risk model with penalties for deficits

We consider the compound Markov binomial risk model. The company controls the amount of dividends paid to the shareholders as well as the capital injections in order to maximize the cumulative expected discounted dividends minus the discounted capital injections and the discounted penalties for deficits prior to ruin. We show that the optimal value function is the unique solution of an HJB equation, and the optimal control strategy is a two-barriers strategy given the current state of the Markov chain. We obtain some properties of the optimal strategy and the optimal condition for ruining the company. We offer a high-efficiency algorithm for obtaining the optimal strategy and the optimal value function. In addition, we also discuss the optimal control problem under a restriction of bounded dividend rates. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the algorithm and the impact of the penalties.     

Optimal investment-consumption-insurance strategy in a continuous-time self-exciting threshold model

In this paper, we consider an optimal investment-consumption-insurance purchase problem for a wage earner. We assume that the price of the risky asset is governed by a continuous-time, finite state self-exciting threshold model. In this model, the state space of the price of the risky asset is partitioned by a set of thresholds and the parameters depend on the region which the current value of the price falls in. The wage earner’s objective is to find the optimal investment-consumption-insurance strategy that maximizes the expected discounted utilities. The optimal strategy for power utility function is derived by the martingale approach and the dynamic programming approach. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the effect of the thresholds.     

Optimal Bayesian strategies for the infinite-armed Bernoulli bandit

We consider the bandit problem with an infinite number of Bernoulli arms, of which the unknown parameters are assumed to be i.i.d. random variables with a common distribution F. Our goal is to construct optimal strategies of choosing “arms” so that the expected long-run failure rate is minimized. We first review a class of strategies and establish their asymptotic properties when F is known. Based on the results, we propose a new strategy and prove that it is asymptotically optimal when F is unknown. Finally, we show that the proposed strategy performs well for a number of simulation scenarios.     

Hedging of contingent claims written on non traded assets under Markov-modulated models

ABSTRACT

This paper studies the hedging problem of European contingent claims when the underlying asset is non traded. We assume that the share prices of the assets are governed by Markov-modulated processes; that is, the market parameters switch over the time according to a finite-state continuous time Markov chain. Due to the presence of Markov chain the non traded asset, the market which we consider is incomplete, we shall use the local risk minimization method to obtain an optimal hedging strategy in a closed-form for an investor. Finally, numerical illustrations of an optimal hedging strategy are given by the Monte Carlo simulation.     

Robust portfolio choice for a defined contribution pension plan with stochastic income and interest rate

This paper considers a robust portfolio choice problem for a defined contribution pension plan with stochastic income and stochastic interest rate. The investment objective of the pension plan is to maximize the expected utility of the wealth at the retirement time. We assume that the financial market consists of a stock, a zero-coupon bond and a risk-free asset. And the member of defined contribution pension plan is ambiguity-averse, which means that the member is uncertain about the expected return rate of the bond and stock. Meanwhile, the member's ambiguity-aversion level toward these two financial assets is quite different. The closed-form expressions of the robust optimal investment strategy and the corresponding value function are derived by adopting the stochastic dynamic programming approach. Furthermore, the sensitive analysis of model parameters on the optimal investment strategy are presented. We find that the member's aversion on model ambiguity increases her hedging demand and has remarkable impact on the optimal investment strategy. Moreover, we demonstrate that ignoring model uncertainty will lead to significant utility loss for the ambiguity-averse member, and the model uncertainty about the stock dynamics implies greater effect on the outcome of the investment than the bond.     

Optimal investment and consumption with unknown parameters

An investment and consumption problem is formulated and its optimal strategy is investigated. We assume the basic binary model, but with unknown parameters. We apply the parametric Bayesian approach to formulate the problem as a sequential stochastic optimization model and use the technique of dynamic programming to characterize the optimal strategy. It is discovered that despite unknown parameters, when the power and logarithmic utility functions are treated, the optimal value function is of the same form of the utility function. The random finite horizon model is formulated as an infinite horizon model. Our results are similar to the ones in the literature having different return functions with constant relative risk aversion.     

Assessing additivity in nonparametric models —A kernel‐based method

In this article, we address the testing problem for additivity in nonparametric regression models. We develop a kernel‐based consistent test of a hypothesis of additivity in nonparametric regression, and establish its asymptotic distribution under a sequence of local alternatives. Compared to other existing kernel‐based tests, the proposed test is shown to effectively ameliorate the influence from estimation bias of the additive component of the nonparametric regression, and hence increase its efficiency. Most importantly, it avoids the tuning difficulties by using estimation‐based optimal criteria, while there is no direct tuning strategy for other existing kernel‐based testing methods. We discuss the usage of the new test and give numerical examples to demonstrate the practical performance of the test. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 632–655; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Optimal distribution-free confidence bands for a distribution function

Distribution-free confidence bands for a distribution function are typically obtained by inverting a distribution-free hypothesis test. We propose an alternate strategy in which the upper and lower bounds of the confidence band are chosen to minimize a narrowness criterion. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality with respect to such a criterion, and we use these conditions to construct an algorithm for finding optimal bands. We also derive uniqueness results, with the Brunn–Minkowski Inequality from the theory of convex bodies playing a key role in this work. We illustrate the optimal confidence bands using some galaxy velocity data, and we also show that the optimal bands compare favorably to other bands both in terms of power and in terms of area enclosed.     

Small-sample performance of Bernoulli two-armed bandit Bayesian strategies

In this paper we examine the small-sample performance of a number of strategies for Bernoulli two-armed bandit problems with independent arms. We first investigate strategies based on a one-armed bandit threshold value (an index analogous to the ‘Gittins index’) and on upper confidence bounds for θ_i. Using backward induction and the Bayesian viewpoint, we observe that these strategies improve on the myopic strategy and get much closer to optimal in terms of total expected reward, even though for very small samples, the myopic worth itself is already close to optimal. Second, we find that the myopic strategy and the strategy based on the one-armed threshold value dominate the Bayesian optimal strategy over a region in the parameter space that can have large probability under the assumed prior. Finally, through examples we show how this has an impact on robustness: small specifications of the prior can lead to the myopic strategy performing better than the optimal strategy in terms of Bayes worth.     

DUAL‐OBJECTIVE OPTIMAL MIXTURE DESIGNS

Mixture experiments are widely used in many industries and particularly in the manufacture of consumer products. Almost all work to date assumes a single study objective, which is unrealistic. Researchers may want to estimate model parameters and make predictions or extrapolations at the same time. We discuss design issues for determining the optimal proportions of the mixture components when there are two or more objectives in the study and there is a large sample size. We present a general methodology for constructing two types of dual‐objective optimal design for mixture experiments and discuss the general applicability of the design strategy to more complicated types of mixture design problems, including mixture experiments.     

On a theorem of Kelley

Kelley (1974) claims to give necessary and sufficient conditions for the myopic strategy to be optimal for the two-armed Bernoulli bandit problem with a two-point prior. In this paper we argue that his conditions are not necessary. We further explore the myopicity of the optimal strategy for this particular bandit problem.     

Efficient circular neighbour designs for spatial interference model

We consider circular block designs for field-trials when there are two-sided spatial interference between neighbouring plots of the same blocks. The parameter of interest is total effects that is the sum of direct effect of treatment and neighbour effects, which correspond to the use of a single treatment in the whole field. We determine universally optimal approximate designs. When the number of blocks may be large, we propose efficient exact designs generated by a single sequence of treatment. We also give efficiency factors of the usual binary block neighbour balanced designs which can be used when the number of blocks is small.     

Optimal investment-consumption and life insurance with capital constraints

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to solve an optimal investment, consumption and life insurance problem when the investor is restricted to capital guarantee. We consider an incomplete market described by a jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility. Using the martingale approach, we prove the existence of the optimal strategy and the optimal martingale measure and we obtain the explicit solutions for the power utility functions.     

Admissible and optimal sampling strategy for estimating finite population mean in randomized response surveys with multiple responses

ABSTRACT

We consider the problem of estimation of a finite population mean (or proportion) related to a sensitive character under a randomized response model when independent responses are obtained from each sampled individual as many times as he/she is selected in the sample and prove the admissibility of a sampling strategy in a class of comparable linear unbiased strategies. We prove that the admissible strategy is also optimal in this class under a super-population model.     

Constructing non-regular robust parameter designs

In recent years there has been considerable attention paid to robust parameter design as a strategy for variance reduction. Of particular concern is the selection of a good experimental plan in light of the two different types of factors in the experiment (control and noise) and the asymmetric manner in which effects of the same order are treated. Recent work has focussed on the selection of regular fractional factorial designs in this setting. In this article, we consider the construction and selection of optimal non-regular experiment plans for robust parameter design. Our approach defines the word-length pattern for non-regular fractional factorial designs with two different types of factors which allows for the choice of optimal design to emphasize the estimation of the effects of interest. We use this new word-length pattern to rank non-regular robust parameter designs. We show that one can easily find minimum aberration robust parameter designs from existing orthogonal arrays. The methodology is demonstrated by finding optimal assignments for control and noise factors for 12, 16 and 20-run orthogonal arrays.     

Optimal cross-over designs for nonlinear mixed models using a first-order expansion

We consider the construction of optimal cross-over designs for nonlinear mixed effect models based on the first-order expansion. We show that for AB/BA designs a balanced subject allocation is optimal when the parameters depend on treatments only. For multiple period, multiple sequence designs, uniform designs are optimal among dual balanced designs under the same conditions. As a by-product, the same results hold for multivariate linear mixed models with variances depending on treatments.     

A semi-infinite programming based algorithm for finding minimax optimal designs for nonlinear models

Minimax optimal experimental designs are notoriously difficult to study largely because the optimality criterion is not differentiable and there is no effective algorithm for generating them. We apply semi-infinite programming (SIP) to solve minimax design problems for nonlinear models in a systematic way using a discretization based strategy and solvers from the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Using popular models from the biological sciences, we show our approach produces minimax optimal designs that coincide with the few theoretical and numerical optimal designs in the literature. We also show our method can be readily modified to find standardized maximin optimal designs and minimax optimal designs for more complicated problems, such as when the ranges of plausible values for the model parameters are dependent and we want to find a design to minimize the maximal inefficiency of estimates for the model parameters.     

Optimal investment strategy for a DC pension plan with mispricing under the Heston model

Abstract

In this article, we consider the optimal investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan with mispricing. We assume that the pension funds are allowed to invest in a risk-free asset, a market index, and a risky asset with mispricing, i.e. the prices are inconsistent in different financial markets. Assuming that the price process of the risky asset follows the Heston model, the manager of the pension fund aims to maximize the expected utility for the power utility function of terminal wealth. By applying stochastic control theory, we establish the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. And the optimal investment strategy is obtained for the power utility function explicitly. Finally, numerical examples are provided to analyze effects of parameters on the optimal strategy.     

Optimal impulse control for dividend and capital injection with proportional reinsurance and exponential premium principle

This article supposes that a large insurance company can control its surplus process by reinsurance, paying dividends, or injecting capitals. The exponential premium principle and proportional reinsurance are adopted in business activities. We investigate the general situation that the company needs to pay both proportional and fixed costs for dividends and capital injections. The object of the company is to determine an optimal joint reinsurance–dividend–capital injection strategy for maximizing the expected present value of dividends less capital injections until the time of bankruptcy. In both cases of non cheap and cheap reinsurance, we obtain the explicit solutions for value function and optimal strategy.     

On the Optimality of Estimating the Tail Index and a Naive Estimator

Using a straightforward estimator for estimating the tail index of a distribution we illustrate the inherent difficulties of this problem. We prove strong and weak consistencies and central limit theorems for our naive estimator, and discuss its various rates of convergence under different conditions. We argue that, while optimal rates of convergence do exist under various conditions for a number of estimators of the tail index, the notion of an optimal sequence for this problem is bound to run into unsurmountable difficulties.