A generalization of Jeffreys' rule for non regular models

ABSTRACT

We propose a generalization of the one-dimensional Jeffreys' rule in order to obtain non informative prior distributions for non regular models, taking into account the comments made by Jeffreys in his article of 1946. These non informatives are parameterization invariant and the Bayesian intervals have good behavior in frequentist inference. In some important cases, we can generate non informative distributions for multi-parameter models with non regular parameters. In non regular models, the Bayesian method offers a satisfactory solution to the inference problem and also avoids the problem that the maximum likelihood estimator has with these models. Finally, we obtain non informative distributions in job-search and deterministic frontier production homogenous models.     

Objective Bayesian analysis of spatial data with uncertain nugget and range parameters

The authors develop default priors for the Gaussian random field model that includes a nugget parameter accounting for the effects of microscale variations and measurement errors. They present the independence Jeffreys prior, the Jeffreys‐rule prior and a reference prior and study posterior propriety of these and related priors. They show that the uniform prior for the correlation parameters yields an improper posterior. In case of known regression and variance parameters, they derive the Jeffreys prior for the correlation parameters. They prove posterior propriety and obtain that the predictive distributions at ungauged locations have finite variance. Moreover, they show that the proposed priors have good frequentist properties, except for those based on the marginal Jeffreys‐rule prior for the correlation parameters, and illustrate their approach by analyzing a dataset of zinc concentrations along the river Meuse. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 304–327; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Objective Bayesian Analysis of Skew‐t Distributions

Abstract. We study the Jeffreys prior and its properties for the shape parameter of univariate skew‐t distributions with linear and nonlinear Student's t skewing functions. In both cases, we show that the resulting priors for the shape parameter are symmetric around zero and proper. Moreover, we propose a Student's t approximation of the Jeffreys prior that makes an objective Bayesian analysis easy to perform. We carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study that demonstrates an overall better behaviour of the maximum a posteriori estimator compared with the maximum likelihood estimator. We also compare the frequentist coverage of the credible intervals based on the Jeffreys prior and its approximation and show that they are similar. We further discuss location‐scale models under scale mixtures of skew‐normal distributions and show some conditions for the existence of the posterior distribution and its moments. Finally, we present three numerical examples to illustrate the implications of our results on inference for skew‐t distributions.     

The use of Jeffreys priors for the Student-t distribution

The Jeffreys-rule prior and the marginal independence Jeffreys prior are recently proposed in Fonseca et al. [Objective Bayesian analysis for the Student-t regression model, Biometrika 95 (2008), pp. 325–333] as objective priors for the Student-t regression model. The authors showed that the priors provide proper posterior distributions and perform favourably in parameter estimation. Motivated by a practical financial risk management application, we compare the performance of the two Jeffreys priors with other priors proposed in the literature in a problem of estimating high quantiles for the Student-t model with unknown degrees of freedom. Through an asymptotic analysis and a simulation study, we show that both Jeffreys priors perform better in using a specific quantile of the Bayesian predictive distribution to approximate the true quantile.     

A Two‐Queue Polling Model with Regularly Varying Service and/or Switchover Times

Abstract

We consider the cyclic polling system with two queues. One queue is severed according to the exhaustive discipline, and the other queue is served according to the 1‐limited discipline. At least one of the service and/or switchover times has a regularly varying tail. We obtain the tail behavior of the waiting time distributions. When one of the service and/or switchover times has an infinite second moment, we derive the heavy‐traffic behavior of the waiting time distribution at the 1‐limited queue.     

Attribute Charts for Zero-Inflated Processes

The classical Shewhart c-chart and p-chart which are constructed based on the Poisson and binomial distributions are inappropriate in monitoring zero-inflated counts. They tend to underestimate the dispersion of zero-inflated counts and subsequently lead to higher false alarm rate in detecting out-of-control signals. Another drawback of these charts is that their 3-sigma control limits, evaluated based on the asymptotic normality assumption of the attribute counts, have a systematic negative bias in their coverage probability. We recommend that the zero-inflated models which account for the excess number of zeros should first be fitted to the zero-inflated Poisson and binomial counts. The Poisson parameter λ estimated from a zero-inflated Poisson model is then used to construct a one-sided c-chart with its upper control limit constructed based on the Jeffreys prior interval that provides good coverage probability for λ. Similarly, the binomial parameter p estimated from a zero-inflated binomial model is used to construct a one-sided np-chart with its upper control limit constructed based on the Jeffreys prior interval or Blyth–Still interval of the binomial proportion p. A simple two-of-two control rule is also recommended to improve further on the performance of these two proposed charts.     

An RG-Factorization Approach for a BMAP/M/1 Generalized Processor-Sharing Queue

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we study a BMAP/M/1 generalized processor-sharing queue. We propose an RG-factorization approach, which can be applied to a wider class of Markovian block-structured processor-sharing queues. We obtain the expressions for both the distribution of the stationary queue length and the Laplace transform of the sojourn time distribution. From these two expressions, we develop an algorithm to compute the mean and variance of the sojourn time approximately.     

A unified approach to marginal equivalence in the general framework of group invariance

ABSTRACT

Two Bayesian models with different sampling densities are said to be marginally equivalent if the joint distribution of observables and the parameter of interest is the same for both models. We discuss marginal equivalence in the general framework of group invariance. We introduce a class of sampling models and derive marginal equivalence when the prior for the nuisance parameter is relatively invariant. We also obtain some robustness properties of invariant statistics under our sampling models. Besides the prototypical example of v-spherical distributions, we apply our general results to two examples—analysis of affine shapes and principal component analysis.     

The analysis of MX/M/1 queue with two-stage vacations policy

Abstract

In this article, we consider a batch arrival M^X/M/1 queue with two-stage vacations policy that comprises of single working vacation and multiple vacations, denoted by M^X/M/1/SWV?+?MV. Using the matrix analytic method, we derive the probability generating function (PGF) of the stationary system size and investigate the stochastic decomposition structure of stationary system size. Further, we obtain the Laplace–Stieltjes transform (LST) of stationary sojourn time of a customer by the first passage time analysis. At last, we illustrate the effects of various parameters on the performance measures numerically and graphically by some numerical examples.     

Bayesian comparative study on binary time series

In this paper, we consider the Bayesian analysis of binary time series with different priors, namely normal, Students' t, and Jeffreys prior, and compare the results with the frequentist methods through some simulation experiments and one real data on daily rainfall in inches at Mount Washington, NH. Among Bayesian methods, our results show that the Jeffreys prior perform better in most of the situations for both the simulation and the rainfall data. Furthermore, among weakly informative priors considered, Student's t prior with 7 degrees of freedom fits the data most adequately.     

Two-queue polling systems with switching policy based on the queue that is not being served

We study a system of two non-identical and separate M/M/1/? queues with capacities (buffers) C₁ < ∞ and C₂ = ∞, respectively, served by a single server that alternates between the queues. The server’s switching policy is threshold-based, and, in contrast to other threshold models, is determined by the state of the queue that is not being served. That is, when neither queue is empty while the server attends Q_i (i = 1, 2), the server switches to the other queue as soon as the latter reaches its threshold. When a served queue becomes empty we consider two switching scenarios: (i) Work-Conserving, and (ii) Non-Work-Conserving. We analyze the two scenarios using Matrix Geometric methods and obtain explicitly the rate matrix R, where its entries are given in terms of the roots of the determinants of two underlying matrices. Numerical examples are presented and extreme cases are investigated.     

Bayes and robust Bayes predictions in a subfamily of scale parameters under a precautionary loss function

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with Bayes, robust Bayes, and minimax predictions in a subfamily of scale parameters under an asymmetric precautionary loss function. In Bayesian statistical inference, the goal is to obtain optimal rules under a specified loss function and an explicit prior distribution over the parameter space. However, in practice, we are not able to specify the prior totally or when a problem must be solved by two statisticians, they may agree on the choice of the prior but not the values of the hyperparameters. A common approach to the prior uncertainty in Bayesian analysis is to choose a class of prior distributions and compute some functional quantity. This is known as Robust Bayesian analysis which provides a way to consider the prior knowledge in terms of a class of priors Γ for global prevention against bad choices of hyperparameters. Under a scale invariant precautionary loss function, we deal with robust Bayes predictions of Y based on X. We carried out a simulation study and a real data analysis to illustrate the practical utility of the prediction procedure.     

Bayesian analysis of Er/M/1 and Er/M/c queues

Bayesian inference and prediction tasks for Er/M/1 and Er/M/c queues are undertaken. Equilibrium probabilities of the queue size and waiting time distributions are estimated using conditional Monte-Carlo simulation methods. We illustrate that some standard queueing measures do not exist when independent priors are used for the arrival and service rates of a G/M/1 queue.     

Jeffreys priors for survival models with censored data

When prior information on model parameters is weak or lacking, Bayesian statistical analyses are typically performed with so-called “default” priors. We consider the problem of constructing default priors for the parameters of survival models in the presence of censoring, using Jeffreys’ rule. We compare these Jeffreys priors to the “uncensored” Jeffreys priors, obtained without considering censored observations, for the parameters of the exponential and log-normal models. The comparison is based on the frequentist coverage of the posterior Bayes intervals obtained from these prior distributions.     

Preservation properties of stochastic orders by transformation to the transmuted-G model

Abstract

The transmuted-G model is a useful technique to construct some new distributions by adding a parameter. This paper considers stochastic comparisons in the transmuted-G family with different parameters and different baseline distributions in the sense of the usual stochastic, shifted stochastic, proportional stochastic and shifted proportional stochastic orders. Also, we present a necessary and sufficient condition for existence of the moments of the transmuted-G model and then we obtain some bounds for the survival and aging intensity functions of the transmuted-G model conditioned on its parameter and its baseline distribution.     

Inequalities involving expectations of selected functions in reliability theory to characterize distributions

Recently, authors have studied inequalities involving expectations of selected functions, viz. failure rate, mean residual life, aging intensity function, and log-odds rate which are defined for left truncated random variables in reliability theory to characterize some well-known distributions. However, there has been growing interest in the study of these functions in reversed time (X ? x, instead of X > x) and their applications. In the present work we consider reversed hazard rate, expected inactivity time, and reversed aging intensity function to deal with right truncated random variables and characterize a few statistical distributions.     

Bayesian Inference on Multivariate Normal Covariance and Precision Matrices in a Star-Shaped Model with Missing Data

In this article, we study Bayesian estimation for the covariance matrix Σ and the precision matrix Ω (the inverse of the covariance matrix) in the star-shaped model with missing data. Based on a Cholesky-type decomposition of the precision matrix Ω = Ψ′Ψ, where Ψ is a lower triangular matrix with positive diagonal elements, we develop the Jeffreys prior and a reference prior for Ψ. We then introduce a class of priors for Ψ, which includes the invariant Haar measures, Jeffreys prior, and reference prior. The posterior properties are discussed and the closed-form expressions for Bayesian estimators for the covariance matrix Σ and the precision matrix Ω are derived under the Stein loss, entropy loss, and symmetric loss. Some simulation results are given for illustration.     

Bayesian beta nonlinear models with constrained parameters to describe ruminal degradation kinetics

The models used to describe the kinetics of ruminal degradation are usually nonlinear models where the dependent variable is the proportion of degraded food. The method of least squares is the standard approach used to estimate the unknown parameters but this method can lead to unacceptable predictions. To solve this issue, a beta nonlinear model and the Bayesian perspective is proposed in this article. The application of standard methodologies to obtain prior distributions, such as the Jeffreys prior or the reference priors, involves serious difficulties here because this model is a nonlinear non-normal regression model, and the constrained parameters appear in the log-likelihood function through the Gamma function. This paper proposes an objective method to obtain the prior distribution, which can be applied to other models with similar complexity, can be easily implemented in OpenBUGS, and solves the problem of unacceptable predictions. The model is generalized to a larger class of models. The methodology was applied to real data with three models that were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion and the root mean square prediction error. A simulation study was performed to evaluate the coverage of the credible intervals.     

Erratum to the paper: a note on reference prior for the scaler skew-normal distribution

Liseo and Loperfido [A note on reference priors for the scalar skew-normal distribution. J Statist Plann Inference. 2006;136(2):373–389] studied some peculiar features of default Bayes analysis of the scalar skew-normal model. In particular, they showed that, by considering the simplest model with a single unknown parameter λ of skewness, the reference – or Jeffreys’ – prior for this parameter is proper. They proved that tails of Jeffreys’ prior are of order O(λ^?3/2). But they made a mistake in their proof. In this note, we will modify their proof.