Sequential estimation of a location parameter from delayed observations

The problem of sequentially estimating a location parameter is considered in the special case when the data arrive at random times. Certain classes of sequential estimation procedures are derived under a location invariant loss function and with the observation cost determined by a function of the moment of stopping and the number of observations up to this moment.     

Asymptotically pointwise optimal and asymptotically optimal stopping times in the Bayesian inference

The paper deals with the problem of determining asymptotically pointwise optimal and asymptotically optimal stopping times in the Bayesian inference. The sufficient conditions are given for a family of stopping times to be asymptotically pointwise optimal and asymptotically optimal with respect to a continuous time process. As an example a sequential estimation of the intensity of the Poisson process is considered. Under a gamma prior distribution, an asymptotically pointwise optimal and asymptotically optimal rule is given using a LINEX loss function and the cost c per unit time.     

On sequential estimation of the mean of a multidimensional gaussian process

For a multidimensional continuous time GAUssian process whose mean vector depends linearly of a multidimensional parameter, we consider a sequential estimation niodel. A suitable estimator process is constructed, and its distributions are analyzed in order to prove that it is progressively sufficient, After the reduction by sufficiency, an invariant structure is introduced and the optimal invariant terminal decision function is obtained.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

Higher-Order Moments Using the Survival Function: The Alternative Expectation Formula

Undergraduate and graduate students in a first-year probability (or a mathematical statistics) course learn the important concept of the moment of a random variable. The moments are related to various aspects of a probability distribution. In this context, the formula for the mean or the first moment of a nonnegative continuous random variable is often shown in terms of its c.d.f. (or the survival function). This has been called the alternative expectation formula. However, higher-order moments are also important, for example, to study the variance or the skewness of a distribution. In this note, we consider the rth moment of a nonnegative random variable and derive formulas in terms of the c.d.f. (or the survival function) paralleling the existing results for the first moment (the mean) using Fubini's theorem. Both nonnegative continuous and discrete integer-valued random variables are considered. These formulas may be advantageous, for example, when dealing with the moments of a transformed random variable, where it may be easier to derive its c.d.f. using the so-called c.d.f. method.     

Sequential estimation of exponential lacation parameter using an asymmetric loss function

For a two-parameter negative exponential population with both parameters unknown, the bounded risk sequential estimation problem of the location parameter is considered under an asymmetric linex loss funmction. Asymptotic second-order expansion of the risk function is derived for a general class of stopping variables. Some examples are include involving purely scquential and accelerated sequential sampling methodologies. A Monte-Carlo study is carried out to support the asymptotic results and to compare the performance of the different sampling methodologies.     

Kurtosis of the logistic-exponential survival distribution

ABSTRACT

In this article, the kurtosis of the logistic-exponential distribution is analyzed. All the moments of this survival distribution are finite, but do not possess closed-form expressions. The standardized fourth central moment, known as Pearson’s coefficient of kurtosis and often used to describe the kurtosis of a distribution, can thus also not be expressed in closed form for the logistic-exponential distribution. Alternative kurtosis measures are therefore considered, specifically quantile-based measures and the L-kurtosis ratio. It is shown that these kurtosis measures of the logistic-exponential distribution are invariant to the values of the distribution’s single shape parameter and hence skewness invariant.     

Stopping times of one-sample rank order sequential probability ratio tests

Weed, Bradley and Grovindarajulu (1974) propose one-sample probability ratio tests based on Lehmann alternatives. They also study the finite sure termination of the stopping times. Motivated by Stein's proof of (1946) of the termination of a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) in the case of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables and the work of Sethuraman (1970) for the two- sample rank order SPRT, we obtain a very mild condition (namely, that a certain random variable U(Z) is not identically zero) for the finite sure termination of the existence of the moment generating function (m.g.f.) for the stopping time of one- sample rank order SPRT's.     

ASYMPTOTIC EXPANSIONS APPLIED TO F-TEST CRITERIA

Using asymptotic expansions of the Kummer hypergeometric function, the sequential. F-test criterion is evaluated asymptotically in terms of the sample size. The continuation region inequalities for the test are inverted and expressed in terms of known test criteria. A rapidly converging algorithm for carrying out the sequential procedure is provided. This makes the F-test easier for the practitioner to use. Almost sure finite termination of the sequential. F-test is asserted by appealing to the continuation inequalities and a heuristic asymptotic expansion of the test criterion. Average stopping times of the sequential procedure for a variety of population means and population number configurations are tabulated. The computer symbolic manipulation program MAPLE was used to derive some formulae.     

Computation of probability and non-centrality parameter of a non-central f-distribution

The small sample properties of the score function approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator for the three-parameter lognormal distribution using an alternative parameterization are considered. The new set of parameters is a continuous function of the usual parameters. However, unlike with the usual parameterization, the score function technique for this parameterization is extremely insensitive to starting values. Further, it is shown that whenever the sample third moment is less than zero, a local maximum to the likelihood function exists at a boundary point. For the usual parameterization, this point is unattainable. However, the alternative parameter space can be expanded to include these boundary points. This procedure results in good estimates of the expected value, variance, extreme percentiles and other parameters of the distribution even in samples where, with the typical parameterization, the estimation procedure fails to converge.     

Pivotal Quantities Based on Sequential Data: A Bootstrap Approach

A bootstrap algorithm is provided for obtaining a confidence interval for the mean of a probability distribution when sequential data are considered. For this kind of data the empirical distribution can be biased but its bias is bounded by the coefficient of variation of the stopping rule associated with the sequential procedure. When using this distribution for resampling the validity of the bootstrap approach is established by means of a series expansion of the corresponding pivotal quantity. A simulation study is carried out using Wang and Tsiatis type tests and considering the normal and exponential distributions to generate the data. This study confirms that for moderate coefficients of variation of the stopping rule, the bootstrap method allows adequate confidence intervals for the parameters to be obtained, whichever is the distribution of data.     

Optimal group sequential designs constrained on both overall and stage one error rates

Abstract

Optimized group sequential designs proposed in the literature have designs minimizing average sample size with respect to a prior distribution of treatment effect with overall type I and type II error rates well-controlled (i.e., at final stage). The optimized asymmetric group sequential designs that we present here additionally consider constrains on stopping probabilities at stage one: probability of stopping for futility at stage one when no drug effect exists as well as the probability of rejection when the maximum effect size is true at stage one so that accountability of group sequential design is ensured from the first stage throughout.     

A Bayesian procedure for the sequential estimation of the mean of a negative-binomial distribution

A Bayesian procedure for the sequential estimation of the mean of a negative-binomial distribution is considered. A reasonable sequential stopping rule, based on a one-step look-ahead procedure is derived. The procedure can be applied to estimate the infestation level of insects in a given field crop area.     

Efficient sequential estimation in a markov branching process with immigration

Sequential estimation of parameters In a continuous time Markov branching process with Immigration with split rate λ₁ Immigration rate λ₂, offspring distribution {p₁j≥O) and Immigration distribution {p₂j≥l} is considered. A sequential version of the Cramér-Rao type information inequality is derived which gives a lower bound on the variances of unbiased estimators for any function of these parameters. Attaining the lower bounds depends on whether the sampling plan or stopping rule S, the estimator f, and the parametric function g = E(f) are efficient. All efficient triples (S,f,g) are characterized; It Is shown that for i = 1,2, only linear combinations of λ_ip_{ij j}'s or their ratios are efficiently estimable. Applications to a Yule process, a linear birth and death process with immigration and an M/M/∞ queue are also considered     

Sensitivity of normal-based triple sampling sequential point estimation to the normality assumption

This paper discusses the sensitivity of the sequential normal-based triple sampling procedure for estimating the population mean to departures from normality. We assume that the underlying population has finite absolute sixth moment and find that asymptotically the behavior of the estimator and of the sample size depend on the skewness and kurtosis of the underlying distribution when using a squared error loss function with linear sampling cost. These results enable the effects of non-normality easily to be assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively. We supplement our asymptotic results with a simulation experiment to study the performance of the estimator and the sample size in a range of conditions.     

ON EMPIRICAL BAYES STOPPING TIMES

We consider the empirical Bayes decision theory where the component problems are the optimal fixed sample size decision problem and a sequential decision problem. With these components, an empirical Bayes decision procedure selects both a stopping rule function and a terminal decision rule function. Empirical Bayes stopping rules are constructed for each case and the asymptotic behaviours are investigated.     

Sequential estimation of the mean of a first-order autoregressive process

This paper considers the problem of sequential point estimation, under an appropriate loss function, of the location parameter when the errors form an autoregressive process with unknown scale and autoregressive parameters, A sequential procedure is developed and an asymptotic second order expansion is provided for the difference between expected stopping time and the optimal fixed sample size procedure. Also, the asymptotic normality of the stopping time is proved. Though the procedure Is asymptotically risk efficient, it. Is not clear whether it has bounded regret.     

Distribution of the Stopping Time in Bayesian Sequential Sampling

The paper presents a method for computing the distribution of the stopping time for the Bayesian sequential one step look-ahead procedure with the proportion as parameter.     

On Smooth Statistical Tail Functionals

Many estimators of the extreme value index of a distribution function F that are based on a certain number k _n of largest order statistics can be represented as a statistical tail function al, that is a functional T applied to the empirical tail quantile function Q _n. We study the asymptotic behaviour of such estimators with a scale and location invariant functional T under weak second order conditions on F . For that purpose first a new approximation of the empirical tail quantile function is established. As a consequence we obtain weak consistency and asymptotic normality of T ( Q _n) if T is continuous and Hadamard differentiable, respectively, at the upper quantile function of a generalized Pareto distribution and k _pn tends to infinity sufficiently slowly. Then we investigate the asymptotic variance and bias. In particular, those functionals T re characterized that lead to an estimator with minimal asymptotic variance. Finally, we introduce a method to construct estimators of the extreme value index with a made-to-order asymptotic behaviour     

Sequential precedence tests

In this paper we introduce the sequential precedence test (SPT) for testing the equality of two continuous distribution functions, against the stochastically ordered alternative. This procedure replaces the classical precedence test (PT), used in life-testing experiments, by a sequence of tests which are applied at the failure times of one of the samples. This allows the possibility of stopping the experiment earlier than the PT. By means of extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data, we show that the proposed methodology results in substantial saving of experimental time and cost, without compromising in power. Algorithms for the implementation of the SPT are included.