共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
M. A. Alkhamisi 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2013,42(3):535-547
A number of procedures have been developed for finding biased estimators of regression parameters. One of these procedures is the ridge regression. In this article, a new approach to obtain the ridge parameter K is suggested and then evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations. A number of different models are investigated for different number of observations, the strength of correlation between the explanatory variables, and distribution of the error terms. The mean squared error (MSE) criterion is used to examine the performance of the proposed estimators when compared with other well-known estimators. Under certain conditions, it is shown that at least one of the proposed estimators have a smaller MSE than the ordinary least squared estimator (OLS) and Hoerl and Kennard (1970a) estimator (HK). 相似文献
2.
This paper argues that Fisher's paradox can be explained away in terms of estimator choice. We analyse by means of Monte Carlo experiments the small sample properties of a large set of estimators (including virtually all available single-equation estimators), and compute the critical values based on the empirical distributions of the t-statistics, for a variety of Data Generation Processes (DGPs), allowing for structural breaks, ARCH effects etc. We show that precisely the estimators most commonly used in the literature, namely OLS, Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and non-prewhitened FMLS, have the worst performance in small samples, and produce rejections of the Fisher hypothesis. If one employs the estimators with the most desirable properties (i.e., the smallest downward bias and the minimum shift in the distribution of the associated t-statistics), or if one uses the empirical critical values, the evidence based on US data is strongly supportive of the Fisher relation, consistently with many theoretical models. 相似文献
3.
On the Value of derivative evaluations and random walk suppression in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Two strategies that can potentially improve Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are to use derivative evaluations of the target density, and to suppress random walk behaviour in the chain. The use of one or both of these strategies has been investigated in a few specific applications, but neither is used routinely. We undertake a broader evaluation of these techniques, with a view to assessing their utility for routine use. In addition to comparing different algorithms, we also compare two different ways in which the algorithms can be applied to a multivariate target distribution. Specifically, the univariate version of an algorithm can be applied repeatedly to one-dimensional conditional distributions, or the multivariate version can be applied directly to the target distribution. 相似文献
4.
《Econometric Reviews》2013,32(1):25-52
Abstract This paper argues that Fisher's paradox can be explained away in terms of estimator choice. We analyse by means of Monte Carlo experiments the small sample properties of a large set of estimators (including virtually all available single-equation estimators), and compute the critical values based on the empirical distributions of the t-statistics, for a variety of Data Generation Processes (DGPs), allowing for structural breaks, ARCH effects etc. We show that precisely the estimators most commonly used in the literature, namely OLS, Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and non-prewhitened FMLS, have the worst performance in small samples, and produce rejections of the Fisher hypothesis. If one employs the estimators with the most desirable properties (i.e., the smallest downward bias and the minimum shift in the distribution of the associated t-statistics), or if one uses the empirical critical values, the evidence based on US data is strongly supportive of the Fisher relation, consistently with many theoretical models. 相似文献
5.
Monte Carlo simulations have been used extensively in studying the performance of control charts. Researchers have used various numbers of replications in their studies, but almost none of them provided justifications for the number of replications used. Currently, there are no empirically based recommendations regarding the required number of replications to ensure accurate results. This research examined six recently published studies to develop recommendations for the minimum number of replications necessary to reproduce the reported results within a specified degree of accuracy. The results of this study indicated that using 10,000 replications was unnecessarily large and a smaller number of replications could be used to reproduce the target ARLs within the 2% error bands satisfying the modified Mundfrom's criteria. In many cases, only 5,000 replications or fewer were required. In general, the number of replications required to reproduce the target ARL decreased as the shift size increased. In addition, the results of this study provide general recommendations for the required number of replications to use in future SPC simulation studies. 相似文献
6.
Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and nonseasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modeling. In this article, the widely used Robinson's (1994) test is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes. 相似文献
7.
Vasco J. Gabriel 《Econometric Reviews》2003,22(4):411-435
The aim of this paper is to compare the relative performance of several tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration, in terms of size and power in finite samples. This is carried out using Monte Carlo simulations for a range of plausible data-generating processes. We also analyze the impact on size and power of choosing different procedures to estimate the long run variance of the errors. We found that the parametrically adjusted test of McCabe et al. (1997) is the most well-balanced test, displaying good power and relatively few size distortions. 相似文献
8.
OLIVIER CAPPÉ RANDAL DOUC ERIC MOULINES & CHRISTIAN ROBERT 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2002,29(4):615-635
While much used in practice, latent variable models raise challenging estimation problems due to the intractability of their likelihood. Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML), as proposed by Geyer & Thompson (1992 ), is a simulation-based approach to maximum likelihood approximation applicable to general latent variable models. MCML can be described as an importance sampling method in which the likelihood ratio is approximated by Monte Carlo averages of importance ratios simulated from the complete data model corresponding to an arbitrary value of the unknown parameter. This paper studies the asymptotic (in the number of observations) performance of the MCML method in the case of latent variable models with independent observations. This is in contrast with previous works on the same topic which only considered conditional convergence to the maximum likelihood estimator, for a fixed set of observations. A first important result is that when is fixed, the MCML method can only be consistent if the number of simulations grows exponentially fast with the number of observations. If on the other hand, is obtained from a consistent sequence of estimates of the unknown parameter, then the requirements on the number of simulations are shown to be much weaker. 相似文献
9.
Arnold Zellner Tomohiro Ando Nalan Baştürk Herman K. van Dijk 《Econometric Reviews》2014,33(1-4):3-35
We discuss Bayesian inferential procedures within the family of instrumental variables regression models and focus on two issues: existence conditions for posterior moments of the parameters of interest under a flat prior and the potential of Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approaches for efficient evaluation of such possibly highly non-elliptical posteriors. We show that, for the general case of m endogenous variables under a flat prior, posterior moments of order r exist for the coefficients reflecting the endogenous regressors’ effect on the dependent variable, if the number of instruments is greater than m +r, even though there is an issue of local non-identification that causes non-elliptical shapes of the posterior. This stresses the need for efficient Monte Carlo integration methods. We introduce an extension of DMC that incorporates an acceptance-rejection sampling step within DMC. This Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo (ARDMC) method has the attractive property that the generated random drawings are independent, which greatly helps the fast convergence of simulation results, and which facilitates the evaluation of the numerical accuracy. The speed of ARDMC can be easily further improved by making use of parallelized computation using multiple core machines or computer clusters. We note that ARDMC is an analogue to the well-known “Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs” sampling in the sense that one ‘more difficult’ step is used within an ‘easier’ simulation method. We compare the ARDMC approach with the Gibbs sampler using simulated data and two empirical data sets, involving the settler mortality instrument of Acemoglu et al. (2001) and father's education's instrument used by Hoogerheide et al. (2012a). Even without making use of parallelized computation, an efficiency gain is observed both under strong and weak instruments, where the gain can be enormous in the latter case. 相似文献
10.
Drew Creal 《Econometric Reviews》2013,32(3):245-296
This article serves as an introduction and survey for economists to the field of sequential Monte Carlo methods which are also known as particle filters. Sequential Monte Carlo methods are simulation-based algorithms used to compute the high-dimensional and/or complex integrals that arise regularly in applied work. These methods are becoming increasingly popular in economics and finance; from dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in macro-economics to option pricing. The objective of this article is to explain the basics of the methodology, provide references to the literature, and cover some of the theoretical results that justify the methods in practice. 相似文献
11.
A Bayesian structural-change analysis via the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo and Gibbs sampler
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(7):1444-1470
In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach to estimate the multiple structural change-points in a level and the trend when the number of change-points is unknown. Our formulation of the structural-change model involves a binary discrete variable that indicates the structural change. The determination of the number and the form of structural changes are considered as a model selection issue in Bayesian structural-change analysis. We apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm, to this structural-change model selection issue. SAMC effectively functions for the complex structural-change model estimation, since it prevents entrapment in local posterior mode. The estimation of the model parameters in each regime is made using the Gibbs sampler after each change-point is detected. The performance of our proposed method has been investigated on simulated and real data sets, a long time series of US real gross domestic product, US uses of force between 1870 and 1994 and 1-year time series of temperature in Seoul, South Korea. 相似文献
12.
Gavin J. Gibson 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》1997,46(2):215-233
Strategies for controlling plant epidemics are investigated by fitting continuous time spatiotemporal stochastic models to data consisting of maps of disease incidence observed at discrete times. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for fitting two such models to data describing the spread of citrus tristeza virus (CTV) in an orchard. The approach overcomes some of the difficulties encountered when fitting stochastic models to infrequent observations of a continuous process. The results of the analysis cast doubt on the effectiveness of a strategy identified from a previous spatial analysis of the CTV data. Extensions of the approaches to more general models and other problems are also considered. 相似文献
13.
14.
Hadi Alizadeh Noughabi 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2017,46(2):1266-1279
In this article, we consider different entropy estimators and propose some entropy-based tests of uniformity. Critical values of the proposed test statistics are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Then the power values of the tests for various alternatives and sample sizes are compared. Finally, some recommendations for the application of the proposed tests in practice are presented. 相似文献
15.
Parameter values of nonlinear statistical models are typically estimated from data using iterative numerical procedures. The resulting joint sampling distribution of the parameter estimators is often intractable, resulting in the use of approximators or Monte Carlo simulation to determine properties of the sampling distribution. This paper develops methods, using linear and higher-order approximators as control variates that reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator by orders of magnitude. Estimation of means, higher-order raw moments, variances, covariances, and percentiles is considered. 相似文献
16.
Elisa Varini 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2008,17(2):183-193
The author provides an approximated solution for the filtering of a state-space model, where the hidden state process is a
continuous-time pure jump Markov process and the observations come from marked point processes. Each state k corresponds to a different marked point process, defined by its conditional intensity function λ
k
(t). When a state is visited by the hidden process, the corresponding marked point process is observed. The filtering equations
are obtained by applying the innovation method and the integral representation theorem of a point process martingale. Since
the filtering equations belong to the family of Kushner–Stratonovich equations, an iterative solution is calculated. The theoretical
solution is approximated and a Monte Carlo integration technique employed to implement it. The sequential method has been
tested on a simulated data set based on marked point processes widely used in the statistical analysis of seismic sequences:
the Poisson model, the stress release model and the Etas model. 相似文献
17.
摘 要:本文应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在定义单次模拟程序时,假设数据产生机制是一个超越对数随机前沿生产函数的10模型,由此创造出模拟样本,并用一个超越对数的00模型(scaling-property模型)计算出有关参数、特别是非效率项的估计值。又进一步判定了所得到的估计值和原来10模型中的“真实”非效率项的一致性。研究发现,真实非效率项与从scaling-property模型中计算出来的非效率估计值之间的各种相关系数均为负值。因此,效率秩估计值和“真实”效率秩是不一致的 相似文献
18.
Lingxiang Zhang 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2017,46(24):12317-12323
Previous literature has shown that the addition of an untested surplus-lag Granger causality test can provide highly robust to stationary, non stationary, long memory, and structural break processes in the forcing variables. This study extends this approach to the partial unit root framework by simulation. Results show good size and power. Therefore, the surplus-lag approach is also robust to partial unit root processes. 相似文献
19.
We explore the construction of new symplectic numerical integration schemes to be used in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and study their efficiency. Integration schemes from Blanes et al., and a new scheme are considered as candidates to the commonly used leapfrog method. All integration schemes are tested within the framework of the No-U-Turn sampler (NUTS), both for a logistic regression model and a student t-model. The results show that the leapfrog method is inferior to all the new methods both in terms of asymptotic expected acceptance probability for a model problem and the efficient sample size per computing time for the realistic models. 相似文献
20.
The use of flexible functional forms is a standard practice in applied econometrics. Many flexible forms have been proposed. In this study, we investigate the behavior of three of them—the translog, the symmetric McFadden, and the symmetric generalized Barnett. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we assess the ability of these forms to test theoretical properties and to measure technological characteristics. 相似文献