Robust Testing Procedures in Heteroscedastic Linear Models

There exist many studies which treat the robust tests in homoscedastic linear models. However, the robust testing procedure in heteroscedastic linear models has not been examined. In this article, three classes of testing procedures for testing subhypothesis in heteroscedastic linear models are developed. These are Wald-type, score-type, and drop-in dispersion tests. The asymptotic distributions of these tests are obtained under the null hypothesis and contiguous alternatives. For a robustness criterion, the maximum asymptotic bias of the level of the test for distributions in a shrinking contamination neighborhood is used and the most-efficient robust test is derived. Finally, the performance of these tests in small sample is studied by Monte Carlo simulation.     

Bias-Corrected Maximum Likelihood Estimators in Nonlinear Heteroscedastic Models

Nonlinear heteroscedastic models are widely used in econometrics and statistical applications. We derive matrix formulae for the second-order biases of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters in the mean and variance response which generalize previous results by Cook et al. (1986 Cook , D. R. , Tsai , C. L. , Wei , B. C. ( 1986 ). Bias in nonlinear regression . Biometrika 73 : 615 – 623 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Cordeiro (1993 Cordeiro , G. M. ( 1993 ). Bartlett corrections and bias correction for two heteroscedastic regression models . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 22 : 169 – 188 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The biases of the estimators are easily obtained as vectors of regression coefficients from suitable weighted linear regressions. The practical use of such biases is illustrated in a simulation study and in an application to a real data set.     

Semi-parametric Efficient Inference for Heteroscedastic Semivarying-coefficient Models

Semivarying-coefficient models with heteroscedastic errors are frequently used in statistical modeling. When the error is conditional heteroskedastic, Ahmad, et al. (2005 Ahmad, I., Leelahanon, S., Li, Q. (2005). Efficient estimation of a semiparametric partially linear varying coefficient model. Ann. Statist. 33(1):258–283.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a general series method to obtain an efficient estimation. In this article we study the heteroscedastic semi-varying coefficient models with a nonparametric variance function, not only use the semi-parametric efficient normal approximation method to derive a family of semi-parametric efficient estimator, but also use the semi-parametric efficient empirical likelihood method to construct the efficient empirical likelihood confidence regions. The proposed estimators retain the double robustness feature of semi-parametric efficient estimator.     

Skew-Normal ARMA Models with Nonlinear Heteroscedastic Predictors

Multivariate skew-normal (SN) distributions (Azzalini and Dalla Valle, 1996 Azzalini , A. , Dalla Valle , A. ( 1996 ). The multivariate skew-normal distribution . Biometrika 83 : 715 – 726 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) enjoy some of the useful properties of normal distributions, have nonlinear heteroscedastic predictors but lack the closure property of normal distributions (the sum of independent SN random variables is not SN). Recently, there has been a proliferation of classes of SN distributions with certain closure properties, one of the most promising being the closed skew-normal (CSN) distributions of González-Farías et al. (2004 González-Farías , G. , Dominguez-Molina , J. A. , Gupta , A. K. ( 2004 ). Additive properties of skew-normal random vectors . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 126 : 521 – 534 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We study the construction of stationary SN ARMA models for colored SN noise and show that their finite-dimensional distributions are skew-normal, seldom strictly stationary and their covariance functions differ from their normal ARMA counterparts in that they do not converge to zero for large lags. The situation is better for ARMA models driven by CSN noise, but at the additional cost of considerable computational complexity and a less explicit skewness parameter. In view of these results, the widespread use of such classes of SN distributions in the framework of ARMA models seem doubtful.     

Estimation of the Variance Function in Heteroscedastic Linear Regression Models

Heteroscedasticity generally exists when a linear regression model is applied to analyzing some real-world problems. Therefore, how to accurately estimate the variance functions of the error term in a heteroscedastic linear regression model is of great importance for obtaining efficient estimates of the regression parameters and making valid statistical inferences. A method for estimating the variance function of heteroscedastic linear regression models is proposed in this article based on the variance-reduced local linear smoothing technique. Some simulations and comparisons with other method are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the variance functions and therefore produce more efficient estimates of the regression parameters.     

The Performance of a Robust Multistage Estimator in Nonlinear Regression with Heteroscedastic Errors

In this article, a robust multistage parameter estimator is proposed for nonlinear regression with heteroscedastic variance, where the residual variances are considered as a general parametric function of predictors. The motivation is based on considering the chi-square distribution for the calculated sample variance of the data. It is shown that outliers that are influential in nonlinear regression parameter estimates are not necessarily influential in calculating the sample variance. This matter persuades us, not only to robustify the estimate of the parameters of the models for both the regression function and the variance, but also to replace the sample variance of the data by a robust scale estimate.     

Tests for Symmetric Error Distribution in Linear and Nonparametric Regression Models

In linear and nonparametric regression models, the problem of testing for symmetry of the distribution of errors is considered. We propose a test statistic which utilizes the empirical characteristic function of the corresponding residuals. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic as well as its behavior under alternatives is investigated. A simulation study compares bootstrap versions of the proposed test to other more standard procedures.     

Variable Selection in Joint Location and Scale Models of the Skew-t-Normal Distribution

Variable selection is an important issue in all regression analysis, and in this article, we investigate the simultaneous variable selection in joint location and scale models of the skew-t-normal distribution when the dataset under consideration involves heavy tail and asymmetric outcomes. We propose a unified penalized likelihood method which can simultaneously select significant variables in the location and scale models. Furthermore, the proposed variable selection method can simultaneously perform parameter estimation and variable selection in the location and scale models. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, we establish the consistency and the oracle property of the regularized estimators. These estimators are compared by simulation studies.     

Estimation,Testing, and Finite Sample Properties of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators in GARCH-M Models

We provide three new results concerning quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic in mean (GARCH-M) models. We first show that, depending on the functional form that we impose in the mean equation, the properties of the model may change and the conditional variance parameter space may be restricted, in contrast to the theory of traditional GARCH processes. Second, we also present a new test for GARCH effects in the GARCH-M context which is simpler to implement than alternative procedures such as in Beg et al. (2001 Beg , R. , Silvapulle , M. , Silvapulle , P. ( 2001 ). Tests against inequality constraints when some nuisance parameters are present only under the alternative: test of ARCH in ARCH-M models . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19 : 245 – 485 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We propose a new way of dealing with parameters that are not identified by creating composites of parameters that are identified. Third, the finite sample properties of QML estimators are explored in a restricted ARCH-M model and bias and variance approximations are found which show that the larger the volatility of the process the better the variance parameters are estimated. The invariance properties that Lumsdaine (1995 Lumsdaine , R. L. ( 1995 ). Finite sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) models: a Monte Carlo investigation . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 ( 1 ): 1 – 10 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proved for the traditional GARCH are shown not to hold in the GARCH-M. For those researchers who choose not to rely on the first order asymptotic approximation of our proposed test statistic, we also show how our bias expressions can be used to bias correct the QML estimates with a view to improving the finite sample performance of the test. Finally, we show how our new proposed test works in practice in an empirical economic application.     

Testing Serial Correlation in Partially Linear Single-Index Errors-in-Variables Models

In this article, we propose two test statistics for testing the underlying serial correlation in a partially linear single-index model Y = η(Z ^τα) + X ^τβ + ? when X is measured with additive error. The proposed test statistics are shown to have asymptotic normal or chi-squared distributions under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Monte Carlo experiments are also conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed test statistics. The simulation results confirm that these statistics perform satisfactorily in both estimated sizes and powers.     

Efficient Estimation in Heteroscedastic Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Models

This article considers statistical inference for the heteroscedastic partially linear varying coefficient models. We construct an efficient estimator for the parametric component by applying the weighted profile least-squares approach, and show that it is semiparametrically efficient in the sense that the inverse of the asymptotic variance of the estimator reaches the semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.     

Testing Symmetry of a NIG Distribution

Exponential and Weibull models are commonly used models with former being the special case of the latter. In their most general forms, the exponential model involves both threshold and scale parameters whereas the Weibull model involves threshold, scale and shape parameters. The article analyzes the two models in a Bayesian framework and examines the feasibility of generality versus particularity in the sense that it tests for the possibility of (not) having a threshold and/or a shape parameter in the data arising from exponential (Weibull) model. The results are illustrated based on both complete and censored datasets from the models.     

On the Functional Approach to Bayesian Efficient Designs for Nonlinear Regression Models

The present article is devoted to an extension of the functional approach elaborated in the book Melas (2006 Melas , V. B. ( 2006 ). Functional Approach to Optimal Experimental Design . Lecture Notes in Statistics , Vol. 184. Heidelberg : Springer . [Google Scholar]) for studying optimal designs in linear and nonlinear regression models. Here we consider Bayesian efficient designs for nonlinear models under the standard assumptions on the observational errors. Sufficient conditions for uniqueness of locally optimal and Bayesian efficient designs for common optimality criteria are given. L-efficient Bayesian designs are constructed and investigated for a special nonlinear regression model of a rational form as an illustration of our main results. This model is interesting in both a practical and a theoretical sense.     

A Discussion on Nonlinear Models for Price Decisions in Rating-Based Product Preference Models

The purpose of this article is to discuss the application of nonlinear models to price decisions in the framework of rating-based product preference models. As revealed by a comparative simulation study, when a nonlinear model is the true model, the traditional linear model fails to properly describe the true pattern. It appears to be unsatisfactory in comparison with nonlinear models, such as logistic and natural spline, which offer some advantages, the most important being the ability to take into account more than just linear and/or monotonic effects. Consequently, when we model the product preference with a nonlinear model, we are potentially able to detect its ‘best’ price level, i.e., the price at which consumer preference towards a given attribute is at its maximum. From an application point of view, this approach is very flexible in price decisions and may produce original managerial suggestions which might not be revealed by traditional methods.     

Testing for changes in autocovariances of nonparametric time series models

In the literature on change-point analysis, much attention has been paid to detecting changes in certain marginal characteristics, such as mean, variance, and marginal distribution. For time series data with nonparametric time trend, we study the change-point problem for the autocovariance structure of the unobservable error process. To derive the asymptotic distribution of the cumulative sum test statistic, we develop substantial theory for uniform convergence of weighted partial sums and weighted quadratic forms. Our asymptotic results improve upon existing works in several important aspects. The performance of the test statistic is examined through simulations and an application to interest rates data.     

Testing for Persistence in the Error Component Model: A One-Sided Approach

This article proposes new simple testing procedures for the joint null hypothesis of absence of persistent effects, in the form of random effects and first-order serial correlation in the error component model. The fact that the presence of random effects is clearly of a one-sided nature, together with the fact that in many empirical applications researchers worry about positive serial correlation leaves room for a power gain that arises from restricting the parameter space under the alternative hypothesis, compared to existing procedures that allow for two-sided alternatives. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that the proposed statistics have good size and power performance in very small samples like those typically used in applied work in panel data. An empirical example illustrates the usefulness of the proposed statistics.     

Central limit theorem for the empirical process of a linear sequence with long memory

We discuss the functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the empirical process of a moving-average stationary sequence with long memory. The cases of one-sided and double-sided moving averages are discussed. In the case of one-sided (causal) moving average, the FCLT is obtained under weak conditions of smoothness of the distribution and the existence of (2+δ)-moment of i.i.d. innovations, by using the martingale difference decomposition due to Ho and Hsing (1996, Ann. Statist. 24, 992–1014). In the case of double-sided moving average, the proof of the FCLT is based on an asymptotic expansion of the bivariate probability density.     

On the Limit of the Generalized Binomial Distribution

ABSTRACT

In this article we investigate the limit of the Generalized Binomial Distribution that results from correlated Bernoulli processes as the number of trials goes to infinity. For a correlation factor less than or equal to one half, we show, under certain assumptions, that the limit distribution is the standardized normal. For a correlation factor greater than one half, we find empirically that the limit is different from the standardized normal distribution.     

Estimation and Testing in Elliptical Functional Measurement Error Models

The purpose of this article is to investigate estimation and hypothesis testing by maximum likelihood and method of moments in functional models within the class of elliptical symmetric distributions. The main results encompass consistency and asymptotic normality of the method of moments estimators. Also, the asymptotic covariance matrix of the maximum likelihood estimator is derived, extending some existing results in elliptical distributions. A measure of asymptotic relative efficiency is reported. Wald-type statistics are considered and numerical results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the performance of estimators and tests are provided for Student-t and contaminated normal distributions. An application to a real dataset is also included.