Maximizing Probability Bounds Under Moment-Matching Restrictions

The problem of characterizing a distribution by its moments dates to work by Chebyshev in the mid-nineteenth century. There are clear (and close) connections with characteristic functions, moment spaces, quadrature, and other very classical mathematical pursuits. Lindsay and Basak posed the specific question of how far from normality could a distribution be if it matches k normal moments. They provided a bound on the maximal difference in cdfs, and implied that these bounds were attained. It will be shown here that in fact the bound is not attained if the number of even moments matched is odd. An explicit solution is developed as a symmetric distribution with a finite number of mass points when the number of even moments matched is even, and this bound for the even case is shown to hold as an explicit limit for the subsequent odd case. As Lindsay noted, the discrepancies can be sizable even for a moderate number of matched moments. Some comments on implications are proffered.     

Modelling and simulation for one‐day cricket

This article is concerned with the simulation of one‐day cricket matches. Given that only a finite number of outcomes can occur on each ball that is bowled, a discrete generator on a finite set is developed where the outcome probabilities are estimated from historical data involving one‐day international cricket matches. The probabilities depend on the batsman, the bowler, the number of wickets lost, the number of balls bowled and the innings. The proposed simulator appears to do a reasonable job at producing realistic results. The simulator allows investigators to address complex questions involving one‐day cricket matches. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Poisson approximation and dna sequence matching

The Poisson distribution is commonly used to model the number of occurrences of independent rare events. However, many instances arise where dependence exists, for example, in counting the length of long head runs in coin tossing, or matches between two DNA sequences. The Chen-Stein method of Poisson approximation yields bounds on the error incurred when approximating the number of occurrences of possibly dependent events by a Poisson random variable of the same mean. In addition to the problems related to the motivating examples from molecular biology involving runs and matches, the method may be applied to questions as varied as calculating probabilities involving extremes of sequences of random variables and approximating the probability of general birthday coincidences.     

Average Spearman's Rho,Concordance, and the Matching Problem: Some Relationships

Relationships between concordance measures and the number of matches are established when there are n objects to be ranked by each of k judges under the hypothesis of independent and random ordering. These relationships generalize earlier results of Barton and David, who dealt with the case k = 2.     

Row similarity in binary-valued matrices

An algorithm is developed for calculating the probability distribution of the number of matches between two specified rows of a matrix of zeroes and ones. Cases covered include row totals fixed, column totals fixed, and column totals and the two specified rows' totals fixed. The results are applied to presence-absence data on six species of ground finches on 23 Galàpagos islands and two constructed examples.     

Estimation of Models With Multiple-Valued Explanatory Variables

ABSTRACT

We study estimation and inference when there are multiple values (“matches”) for the explanatory variables and only one of the matches is the correct one. This problem arises often when two datasets are linked together on the basis of information that does not uniquely identify regressor values. We offer a set of two intuitive conditions that ensure consistent inference using the average of the possible matches in a linear framework. The first condition is the exogeneity of the false match with respect to the regression error. The second condition is a notion of exchangeability between the true and false matches. Conditioning on the observed data, the probability that each match is correct is completely unrestricted. We perform a Monte Carlo study to investigate the estimator’s finite-sample performance relative to others proposed in the literature. Finally, we provide an empirical example revisiting a main area of application: the measurement of intergenerational elasticities in income. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Finding the maximum efficiency for multistage ranked-set sampling

Multistage ranked-set sampling (MRSS) is a generalization of ranked-set sampling in which multiple stages of ranking are used. It is known that for a fixed distribution under perfect rankings, each additional stage provides a gain in efficiency when estimating the population mean. However, the maximum possible efficiency for the MRSS sample mean relative to the simple random sampling sample mean has not previously been determined. In this paper, we provide a method for computing this maximum possible efficiency under perfect rankings for any choice of the set size and the number of stages. The maximum efficiency tends to infinity as the number of stages increases, and, for large numbers of stages, the efficiency-maximizing distributions are symmetric multi-modal distributions where the number of modes matches the set size. The results in this paper correct earlier assertions in the literature that the maximum efficiency is bounded and that it is achieved when the distribution is uniform.     

Rank Tests for Matched Survival Data

In a clinical trial with the time to an event as the outcome of interest, we may randomize a number of matched subjects, such as litters, to different treatments. The number of treatments equals the number of subjects per litter, two in the case of twins. In this case, the survival times of matched subjects could be dependent. Although the standard rank tests, such as the logrank and Wilcoxon tests, for independent samples may be used to test the equality of marginal survival distributions, their standard error should be modified to accommodate the possible dependence of survival times between matched subjects. In this paper we propose a method of calculating the standard error of the rank tests for paired two-sample survival data. The method is naturally extended to that for K-sample tests under dependence.     

AN ANALYSIS OF CLASSICAL AND TIE-BREAKER TENNIS

Expressions for the probability that a player wins a game, set or match of classical or tie-breaker tennis are obtained. Also, expressions for the distribution, the mean and the variance of the number of points in a game, set or match of classical or tie-breaker tennis are obtained. These results explain the long matches often previously observed in classical tennis between two players each with very effective serves on fast grass-court surfaces. The methodology used to derive these expressions could be used to obtain corresponding expressions for other "nested-type" scoring systems. For example, tennis is 3-nested (game, set, match) whereas squash is only 2-nested (game, match).     

A Simulator for Twenty20 Cricket

This paper develops a Twenty20 cricket simulator for matches between sides belonging to the International Cricket Council. As input, the simulator requires the probabilities of batting outcomes which are dependent on the batsman, the bowler, the number of overs consumed and the number of wickets lost. The determination of batting probabilities is based on an amalgam of standard classical estimation techniques and a hierarchical empirical Bayes approach where the probabilities of batting outcomes borrow information from related scenarios. Initially, the probabilities of batting outcomes are obtained for the first innings. In the second innings, the target score obtained from the first innings affects the aggressiveness of batting during the second innings. We use the target score to modify batting probabilities in the second innings simulation. This gives rise to the suggestion that teams may not be adjusting their second innings batting aggressiveness in an optimal way. The adequacy of the simulator is addressed through various goodness‐of‐fit diagnostics.     

Notes on Interval Estimation of Odds Ratio in Matched Pairs under Stratified Sampling

We develop four asymptotic interval estimators and one exact interval estimator for the odds ratio (OR) under stratified random sampling with matched pairs. We apply Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the performance of these five interval estimators. We note that the conditional score test-based interval estimator with a monotonic transformation and the interval estimator based on the Mantel–Haenszel (MH) type point estimator with the logarithmic transformation are generally preferable to the others considered here. We also note that the conditional exact confidence interval can be of use when the total number of matched pairs with discordant responses is small.     

On statistical problems with face identification from photographs

SUMMARY Automatic identification of faces from a database given a digital view is becoming increasingly important. The question arises whether or not there can be a face identification system similar to the fingerprinting system, where a certain number of matches are regarded as sufficient to identify the person in the database. We first give a very general review of the topic of facial measurements and indicate some deep statistical problems. We then analyze a database of photographs. Certain characteristics of the population are provided, such as the modes of variation and correlation structures using shape analysis. The data involve angles as well as distances. The principal component analysis for angular data is discussed, its conversion into landmark data is established and the two approaches are compared. A new approach of anchor shape analysis for specialized distances is discussed.     

A simple two-step procedure using the Fellegi–Sunter model for frequency-based record linkage

The widely used Fellegi–Sunter model for probabilistic record linkage does not leverage information contained in field values and consequently leads to identical classification of match status regardless of whether records agree on rare or common values. Since agreement on rare values is less likely to occur by chance than agreement on common values, records agreeing on rare values are more likely to be matches. Existing frequency-based methods typically rely on knowledge of error probabilities associated with field values and frequencies of agreed field values among matches, often derived using prior studies or training data. When such information is unavailable, applications of these methods are challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple two-step procedure for frequency-based matching using the Fellegi–Sunter framework to overcome these challenges. Matching weights are adjusted based on frequency distributions of the agreed field values among matches and non-matches, estimated by the Fellegi–Sunter model without relying on prior studies or training data. Through a real-world application and simulation, our method is found to produce comparable or better performance than the unadjusted method. Furthermore, frequency-based matching provides greater improvement in matching accuracy when using poorly discriminating fields with diminished benefit as the discriminating power of matching fields increases.     

Screening for unusual matched segments in multiple protein sequences

Given a sequence of i.i.d. integer valued random variables, we derive the distribution of the minimum sum of any W consecutive variables. We apply these results to evaluate the unusualness of matches (perfect or almost perfect) in multiply aligned sequences, and matches in all possible alignments of sequences.     

Time Series Models for Count or Qualitative Observations

Time series sometimes consist of count data in which the number of events occurring in a given time interval is recorded. Such data are necessarily nonnegative integers, and an assumption of a Poisson or negative binomial distribution is often appropriate. This article sets ups a model in which the level of the process generating the observations changes over time. A recursion analogous to the Kalman filter is used to construct the likelihood function and to make predictions of future observations. Qualitative variables, based on a binomial or multinomial distribution, may be handled in a similar way. The model for count data may be extended to include explanatory variables. This enables nonstochastic slope and seasonal components to be included in the model, as well as permitting intervention analysis. The techniques are illustrated with a number of applications, and an attempt is made to develop a model-selection strategy along the lines of that used for Gaussian structural time series models. The applications include an analysis of the results of international football matches played between England and Scotland and an assessment of the effect of the British seat-belt law on the drivers of light-goods vehicles.     

成人依恋及其特征探析

为了探讨已婚人士的成人依恋的具体特征,采用亲密关系经历量表（ECR-R）对已婚人士进行测量。结果表明：（1）与大学生相比,已婚人士对于伴侣的依恋较弱;在依恋类型上,已婚人士中安全型减少,冷漠型增多;（2）安全型和冷漠型是已婚人士的主要依恋类型;（3）性别、收入、文化程度等因素对依恋焦虑维度的影响显著;（4）性别、年龄、子女、结婚时间、文化程度等因素对依恋回避维度的影响显著。     

Estimation of the Magnitude of Victory in One-day Cricket RMIT University, Mayo Clinic Rochester and Simon Fraser University

The Duckworth–Lewis method is steadily becoming the standard approach for resetting targets in interrupted one-day cricket matches. In this paper we show that a modification of the Duckworth–Lewis resource table can be used to quantify the magnitude of a victory in one-day matches. This simple and direct application is particularly useful in breaking ties in tournament standings and in quantifying team strength.     

Confidence intervals for the difference of marginal probabilities in clustered matched-pair binary data

Although there are several available test statistics to assess the difference of marginal probabilities in clustered matched‐pair binary data, associated confidence intervals (CIs) are not readily available. Herein, the construction of corresponding CIs is proposed, and the performance of each CI is investigated. The results from Monte Carlo simulation study indicate that the proposed CIs perform well in maintaining the nominal coverage probability: for small to medium numbers of clusters, the intracluster correlation coefficient‐adjusted McNemar statistic and its associated Wald or Score CIs are preferred; however, this statistic becomes conservative when the number of clusters is larger so that alternative statistics and their associated CIs are preferred. In practice, a combination of the intracluster correlation coefficient‐adjusted McNemar statistic with an alternative statistic is recommended. To illustrate the practical application, a real clustered matched‐pair collection of data is used to illustrate testing the difference of marginal probabilities and constructing the associated CIs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Small sample characteristics of generalized estimating equations

The aim of this study was to investigate the Type I error rate of hypothesis testing based on generalized estimating equations (GEE) for data characteristic of periodontal clinical trials. The data in these studies consist of a large number of binary responses from each subject and a small number of subjects (Haffajee et al. (1983), Goodson (1986), Jenkins et al. (1988)) Computer simulations were employed to investigate GEE based both on an empirical estimate of the variance-covariance matrix and a model-based estimate. Results from this investigation indicate that hypothesis testing based on GEE resulted in inappropriate Type I error rates when small samples are employed. Only an increase in the number of subjects to the point where it matched the number of observations per subject resulted in appropriate Type I error rates     

A bayesian alternative to the analysis of matched categorical responces

This study investigates the Bayesian appeoach to the analysis of parired responess when the responses are categorical. Using resampling and analytical procedures, inferences for homogeneity and agreement are develped. The posterior analysis is based on the Dirichlet distribution from which repeated samples can be geneated with a random number generator. Resampling and analytical techniques are employed to make Bayesian inferences, and when it is not appropriate to use analytical procedures, resampling techniques are easily implemented. Bayesian methodoloogy is illustrated with several examples and the results show that they are exacr-small sample procedures that can easily solve inference problems for matched designs.