Spatially Clustered Outbreak Detection Using the EWMA SCAN Statistics with Multiple Sized Windows

Spatio-temporal surveillance methods for detecting outbreaks of disease are fairly common in the literature with the SCAN statistic setting the benchmark. If the shape and size of the outbreaks are known in advance, then the SCAN statistic can be trained to efficiently detect these, however this is seldom true. Therefore, we want to devise plans that are efficient at detecting a number of outbreaks that vary in size and shape. This article examines plans which use the exponential weighted moving average statistic to build temporal memory into plans and tries to develop robust plans for detecting outbreaks of unknown shapes and sizes.     

Optimal exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plans for detecting seasonal epidemics when faced with non-homogeneous negative binomial counts

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plans for non-homogeneous negative binomial counts are developed for detecting the onset of seasonal disease outbreaks in public health surveillance. These plans are robust to changes in the in-control mean and over-dispersion parameter of the negative binomial distribution, and therefore are referred to as adaptive plans. They differ from the traditional approach of using standardized forecast errors based on the normality assumption. Plans are investigated in terms of early signal properties for seasonal epidemics. The paper demonstrates that the proposed EWMA plan has efficient early detection properties that can be useful to epidemiologists for communicable and other disease control and is compared with the CUSUM plan.     

Scan statistics for detecting a local change in variance for two-dimensional normal data

In this article scan statistics for detecting a local change in variance for two-dimensional normal data are discussed. When the precise size of the rectangular window, where a local change in variance has occurred, is unknown, multiple and variable window scan statistics are proposed. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the scan statistics investigated in this article via comparison of power. A method for estimating the rectangular region, where a change in variance has occurred, and the size of the change in variance is also discussed.     

Time truncated acceptance sampling plans for generalized exponential distribution

Acceptance sampling plans for generalized exponential distribution when the lifetime experiment is truncated at a pre-determined time are provided in this article. The tables are provided for the minimum sample size required to ensure a certain median life of the experimental unit when the shape parameter is two. The operating characteristic function values of the sampling plans and the associated producer's risks are also presented. It is shown that the tables presented here can be used if instead of median life, other percentile life is chosen as the criterion or if the shape parameter is not two. Examples are provided for illustrative purposes.     

Improved attribute acceptance sampling plans based on maxima nomination sampling

This paper demonstrates the use of maxima nomination sampling (MNS) technique in design and evaluation of single AQL, LTPD, and EQL acceptance sampling plans for attributes. We exploit the effect of sample size and acceptance number on the performance of our proposed MNS plans using operating characteristic (OC) curve. Among other results, we show that MNS acceptance sampling plans with smaller sample size and bigger acceptance number perform better than commonly used acceptance sampling plans for attributes based on simple random sampling (SRS) technique. Indeed, MNS acceptance sampling plans result in OC curves which, compared to their SRS counterparts, are much closer to the ideal OC curve. A computer program is designed which can be used to specify the optimum MNS acceptance sampling plan and to show, visually, how the shape of the OC curve changes when parameters of the acceptance sampling plan vary. Theoretical results and numerical evaluations are given.     

An economic reliability test plan: Log-logistic distribution

Sampling plans in which items that are put to test, to collect the life of the items in order to decide upon accepting or rejecting a submitted lot, are called reliability test plans. The basic probability model of the life of the product is specified as the well-known log-logistic distribution with a known shape parameter. For a given producer's risk, sample size, termination number, and waiting time to terminate the test plan are computed. The preferability of the test plan over similar plans existing in the literature is established with respect to cost and time of the experiment.     

Detecting clusters with increased mean using scan windows with variable radius

Applying spatiotemporal scan statistics is an effective method to detect the clustering of mean shifts in many application fields. Although several exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) based scan statistics have been proposed, the existing methods generally require a fixed scan window size or apply the weighting technique across the temporal axis only. However, the size of shift coverage is often unavailable in practical problems. Using a mismatching scan radius may mislead the size of cluster coverage in space or delay the time to detection. This research proposed an stEWMA method by applying the weighting technique across both temporal and spatial axes with variable scan radius. The simulation analysis showed that the stEWMA method can have a significantly shorter time to detection than the likelihood ratio-based scan statistic using variable scan radius, especially when cluster coverage size is small. The application to detecting the increase of male thyroid cancer in the New Mexico state also showed the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

An unconditional space–time scan statistic for ZIP‐distributed data

A scan statistic is proposed for the prospective monitoring of spatiotemporal count data with an excess of zeros. The method that is based on an outbreak model for the zero‐inflated Poisson distribution is shown to be superior to traditional scan statistics based on the Poisson distribution in the presence of structural zeros. The spatial accuracy and the detection timeliness of the proposed scan statistic are investigated by means of simulation, and an application on the weekly cases of Campylobacteriosis in Germany illustrates how the scan statistic could be used to detect emerging disease outbreaks. An implementation of the method is provided in the open‐source R package scanstatistics available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.     

Double and group acceptance sampling plan for truncated life test based on inverse log-logistic distribution

This paper introduces a double and group acceptance sampling plans based on time truncated lifetimes when the lifetime of an item follows the inverse log-logistic (ILL) distribution with known shape parameter. The operating characteristic function and average sample number (ASN) values of the double acceptance sampling inspection plan are provided. The values of the minimum number of groups and operating characteristic function for various quality levels are obtained for a group acceptance sampling inspection plan. A comparative study between single acceptance sampling inspection plan and double acceptance sampling inspection plan is carried out in terms of sample size. One simulated example and four real-life examples are discussed to show the applicability of the proposed double and group acceptance sampling inspection plans for ILL distributed quality parameters.     

Dynamic sampling plans in on-line control charts

Three simple dynamic sampling plans for detecting the change point are investigated in the discrete-time case. The first is a two-rate sampling CUSUM procedure. The second is a two-rate sampling Shiryayev-Roberts procedure. The third is a periodic sequential testing procedure. Two problems are discussed. First, simple design methods are provided for practical use. Second, a comparison between the three plans is made in the continuous-time case, which shows that by properly choosing the design parameters, the three plans can be made equally efficient in certain senses.     

Multiple window discrete scan statistic for higher-order Markovian sequences

Accurate and efficient methods to detect unusual clusters of abnormal activity are needed in many fields such as medicine and business. Often the size of clusters is unknown; hence, multiple (variable) window scan statistics are used to identify clusters using a set of different potential cluster sizes. We give an efficient method to compute the exact distribution of multiple window discrete scan statistics for higher-order, multi-state Markovian sequences. We define a Markov chain to efficiently keep track of probabilities needed to compute p-values for the statistic. The state space of the Markov chain is set up by a criterion developed to identify strings that are associated with observing the specified values of the statistic. Using our algorithm, we identify cases where the available approximations do not perform well. We demonstrate our methods by detecting unusual clusters of made free throw shots by National Basketball Association players during the 2009–2010 regular season.     

Multiple Window Discrete Scan Statistics

In this article, multiple scan statistics of variable window sizes are derived for independent and identically distributed 0-1 Bernoulli trials. Both one and two dimensional, as well as, conditional and unconditional cases are treated. The advantage in using multiple scan statistics, as opposed to single fixed window scan statistics, is that they are more sensitive in detecting a change in the underlying distribution of the observed data. We show how to derive simple approximations for the significance level of these testing procedures and present numerical results to evaluate their performance.     

Acceptance sampling plans under progressive interval censoring with likelihood ratio

The paper investigates the design of life test plans under progressively interval censored test. Based on the likelihood ratio, the proposed life test plans are established so that the required producer and consumer risks can be satisfied simultaneously. The advantage of the proposed method is that the developed sampling procedure depends on the likelihood ratio only so that the method can be applied to any lifetime distribution when only one parameter is unknown. A numerical study is conducted and some of the sampling plans for the Weibull lifetime distribution with different shape parameters are tabulated for illustration. Moreover, the influence of the removal schemes on the proposed sampling plans is discussed.     

Interval censored sampling plans for the log-logistic lifetime distribution

The log-logistic distribution is one of the popular distributions in life-testing applications. This article develops an acceptance sampling procedure for the log-logistic lifetime distribution based on grouped data when the shape parameter is given. Both producer and consumer risks are considered to develop the ordinary, approximate and simulated sampling plans. Some of the proposed sampling plans are tabulated; moreover, those three types of sampling plans are compared with each other under the same censoring rates. The use of these tables is illustrated by an example.     

On shape detection in noisy images with particular reference to ultrasonography

We discuss the detection of a connected shape in a noisy image. Two types of image are considered: in the first a degraded outline of the shape is visible, while in the second the data are a corrupted version of the shape itself. In the first type the shape is defined by a thin outline of pixels with records that are different from those at pixels inside and outside the shape, while in the second type the shape is defined by its edge and pixels inside and outside the shape have different records. Our motivation is the identification of cross-sectional head shapes in ultrasound images of human fetuses. We describe and discuss a new approach to detecting shapes in images of the first type that uses a specially designed filter function that iteratively identifies the outline pixels of the head. We then suggest a way based on the cascade algorithm introduced by Jubb and Jennison (1991) of improving and considerably increasing the speed of a method proposed by Storvik (1994) for detecting edges in images of the second type.     

Simple random sample equivalent survey designs reducing undesirable units from a finite population

In this paper, we consider fixed size sampling plans for which the first order inclusion probabilities are identical for all units and the second order inclusion probabilities are constant for every pair-wise unit. The statistical conditions are identified under which these plans are equivalent to the usual simple random sampling plan. These sampling plans are constructed to reduce undesirable units.     

Sampling plans excluding contiguous units

We consider fixed size sampling plans for which the second order inclusion probabilities are zero for pairs of contiguous units and constant for pairs of non-contiguous units. A practical motivation for the use of such plans is pointed out and a statistical condition is identified under which these plans are more efficient than the corresponding simple random sampling plans. Results on the existence and construction of these plans are obtained.     

Modified chain sampling plans for lot inspection by variables and attributes

The purpose of acceptance sampling is to develop decision rules to accept or reject production lots based on sample data. When testing is destructive or expensive, dependent sampling procedures cumulate results from several preceding lots. This chaining of past lot results reduces the required size of the samples. A large part of these procedures only chain past lot results when defects are found in the current sample. However, such selective use of past lot results only achieves a limited reduction of sample sizes. In this article, a modified approach for chaining past lot results is proposed that is less selective in its use of quality history and, as a result, requires a smaller sample size than the one required for commonly used dependent sampling procedures, such as multiple dependent sampling plans and chain sampling plans of Dodge. The proposed plans are applicable for inspection by attributes and inspection by variables. Several properties of their operating characteristic-curves are derived, and search procedures are given to select such modified chain sampling plans by using the two-point method.     

A variables repetitive group sampling plan under failure-censored reliability tests for Weibull distribution

We propose a variables repetitive group sampling plan under type-II or failure-censored life testing when the lifetime of a part follows a Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter. The acceptance criteria do not involve unknown scale parameter differently from the existing plans. To determine the design parameters of the proposed plan, the usual approach of using two points on the operating characteristic curve is adopted and an optimization problem is formulated so as to minimize the average number of failures observed. Tables for design parameters are constructed when the quality of parts is represented by the unreliability or the ratio of the mean lifetime to the specified life. It is found that the proposed sampling plan can reduce the sample size significantly than do the single sampling plan.     

Life test sampling plans for Weibull distributed lifetimes under accelerated hybrid censoring

Life test sampling plans (LSPs) for the Weibull distribution are usually developed under the assumptions that the shape parameter is known and the life test is conducted at an accelerated condition for which the acceleration factor (AF) is known. However, the sensitivities of a plan to the assumed shape parameter and AF have been rarely investigated. This paper considers the case where the life test is hybrid censored and develops attributes LSPs under the above assumptions. Then, sensitivity analyses are conducted to assess the effects of the uncertainties in the assumed AF and shape parameter on the actual producer and consumer risks. A method is also developed for constructing LSPs that can accommodate these uncertainties.