Optimal Designs for 2 k Choice Experiments

Abstract

In this article we establish the choice sets in the D-optimal design for a choice experiment for testing main effects and for testing main effects and two-factor interactions, when there are k attributes, each with two levels, for choice set size m. We also give a method to construct optimal and near-optimal designs with small numbers of choice sets.     

Optimal allocation of time points for the random effects model

In this article the problem of the optimal selection and allocation of time points in repeated measures experiments is considered. D‐ optimal designs for linear regression models with a random intercept and first order auto‐regressive serial correlations are computed numerically and compared with designs having equally spaced time points. When the order of the polynomial is known and the serial correlations are not too small, the comparison shows that for any fixed number of repeated measures, a design with equally spaced time points is almost as efficient as the D‐ optimal design. When, however, there is no prior knowledge about the order of the underlying polynomial, the best choice in terms of efficiency is a D‐ optimal design for the highest possible relevant order of the polynomial. A design with equally‐spaced time points is the second best choice     

OPTIMAL DESIGNS FOR FITTING A PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS REGRESSION MODEL TO DATA SUBJECT TO CENSORING

Suppose the probability model for failure time data, subject to censoring, is specified by the hazard function λ(t)exp(β_T x), where x is a vector of covariates. Analytical difficulties involved in finding the optimal design are avoided by assuming that λ is completely specified and by using D-optimality based on the information matrix for β Optimal designs are found to depend on β, but some results of practical consequence are obtained. It is found that censoring does not affect the choice of design appreciably when β^T x ≥ 0 for all points of the feasible region, but may have an appreciable effect when β_ix_i 0, for all i and all points in the feasible experimental region. The nature of the effect is discussed in detail for the cases of one and two parameters. It is argued that in practical biomedical situations the optimal design is almost always the same as for uncensored data.     

NESTING OPTIMAL MAIN EFFECTS PLANS AND OPTIMAL FOLDOVER DESIGNS

ABSTRACT

Optimal main effects plans (MEPs) and optimal foldover designs can often be performed as a series of nested optimal designs. Then, if the experiment cannot be completed due to time or budget constraints, the fraction already performed may still be an optimal design. We show that the optimal MEP for 4t factors in 4t + 4 points does not contain the optimal MEP for 4t factors in 4t + 2 points nested within it. In general, the optimal MEP for 4t factors in 4t + 4 points does not contain the optimal MEPs for 4t factors in 4t + 1, 4t + 2, or 4t + 3 points and the optimal MEP for 4t + 1 factors in 4t + 4 points does not contain the optimal MEPs for 4t + 1 factors in 4t + 2 or 4t + 3 points. We also show that the runs in an orthogonal design for 4t factors in 4t + 4 points, and the optimal foldover designs obtained by folding, should be performed in a certain sequence in order to avoid the possibility of a singular X'X matrix.     

Robust sequential designs for approximately linear models

We consider the problem of the sequential choice of design points in an approximately linear model. It is assumed that the fitted linear model is only approximately correct, in that the true response function contains a nonrandom, unknown term orthogonal to the fitted response. We also assume that the parameters are estimated by M-estimation. The goal is to choose the next design point in such a way as to minimize the resulting integrated squared bias of the estimated response, to order n^-1. Explicit applications to analysis of variance and regression are given. In a simulation study the sequential designs compare favourably with some fixed-sample-size designs which are optimal for the true response to which the sequential designs must adapt.     

Multiple-start balanced modified systematic sampling in the presence of linear trend

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a sampling design termed as multiple-start balanced modified systematic sampling (MBMSS), which involves the supplementation of two or more balanced modified systematic samples, thus permitting us to obtain an unbiased estimate of the associated sampling variance. There are five cases for this design and in the presence of linear trend only one of these cases is optimal. To further improve results for the other cases, we propose an estimator that removes linear trend by applying weights to the first and last sampling units of the selected balanced modified systematic samples and is thus termed as the MBMSS with end corrections (MBMSSEC) estimator. By assuming a linear trend model averaged over a super-population model, we will compare the expected mean square errors (MSEs) of the proposed sample means, to that of simple random sampling (SRS), linear systematic sampling (LSS), stratified random sampling (STR), multiple-start linear systematic sampling (MLSS), and other modified MLSS estimators. As a result, MBMSS is optimal for one of the five possible cases, while the MBMSSEC estimator is preferred for three of the other four cases.     

Designs for weighted least squares regression, with estimated weights

We study designs, optimal up to and including terms that are O(n ^?1), for weighted least squares regression, when the weights are intended to be inversely proportional to the variances but are estimated with random error. We take a finite, but arbitrarily large, design space from which the support points are to be chosen, and obtain the optimal proportions of observations to be assigned to each point. Specific examples of D- and I-optimal design for polynomial responses are studied. In some cases the same designs that are optimal under homoscedasticity remain so for a range of variance functions; in others there tend to be more support points than are required in the homoscedastic case. We also exhibit minimax designs, that minimize the maximum, over finite classes of variance functions, value of the loss. These also tend to have more support points, often resulting from the breaking down of replicates into clusters.     

Design considerations for small experiments and simple logistic regression

Inference for a generalized linear model is generally performed using asymptotic approximations for the bias and the covariance matrix of the parameter estimators. For small experiments, these approximations can be poor and result in estimators with considerable bias. We investigate the properties of designs for small experiments when the response is described by a simple logistic regression model and parameter estimators are to be obtained by the maximum penalized likelihood method of Firth [Firth, D., 1993, Bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates. Biometrika, 80, 27–38]. Although this method achieves a reduction in bias, we illustrate that the remaining bias may be substantial for small experiments, and propose minimization of the integrated mean square error, based on Firth's estimates, as a suitable criterion for design selection. This approach is used to find locally optimal designs for two support points.     

Optimal designs for estimating a choice hierarchy by a general nested multinomial logit model

Abstract

In choice experiments the process of decision-making can be more complex than the proposed by the Multinomial Logit Model (MNL). In these scenarios, models such as the Nested Multinomial Logit Model (NMNL) are often employed to model a more complex decision-making. Understanding the decision-making process is important in some fields such as marketing. Achieving a precise estimation of the models is crucial to the understanding of this process. To do this, optimal experimental designs are required. To construct an optimal design, information matrix is key. A previous research by others has developed the expression for the information matrix of the two-level NMNL model with two nests: Alternatives nest (J alternatives) and No-Choice nest (1 alternative). In this paper, we developed the likelihood function for a two-stage NMNL model for M nests and we present the expression for the information matrix for 2 nests with any amount of alternatives in them. We also show alternative D-optimal designs for No-Choice scenarios with similar relative efficiency but with less complex alternatives which can help to obtain more reliable answers and one application of these designs.     

D-optimal designs for covariate models

The problem of finding D-optimal or D-efficient designs in the presence of covariates is considered under a completely randomized design set-up with v treatments, k covariates and N experimental units. In contrast to Lopes Troya [Lopes Troya, J., 1982, Optimal designs for covariates models. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 6, 373–419.], who considered this problem in the equireplicate case, we do not assume that N/v is an integer, and this allows us to study situations where no equireplicate design exists. Even when N/v is an integer, it is seen quite counter-intuitively that there are situations where a non-equireplicate design outperforms the best equireplicate design under the D-criterion.     

Constructing optimal projection designs

ABSTRACT

The early stages of many real-life experiments involve a large number of factors among which only a few factors are active. Unfortunately, the optimal full-dimensional designs of those early stages may have bad low-dimensional projections and the experimenters do not know which factors turn out to be important before conducting the experiment. Therefore, designs with good projections are desirable for factor screening. In this regard, significant questions are arising such as whether the optimal full-dimensional designs have good projections onto low dimensions? How experimenters can measure the goodness of a full-dimensional design by focusing on all of its projections?, and are there linkages between the optimality of a full-dimensional design and the optimality of its projections? Through theoretical justifications, this paper tries to provide answers to these interesting questions by investigating the construction of optimal (average) projection designs for screening either nominal or quantitative factors. The main results show that: based on the aberration and orthogonality criteria the full-dimensional design is optimal if and only if it is optimal projection design; the full-dimensional design is optimal via the aberration and orthogonality if and only if it is uniform projection design; there is no guarantee that a uniform full-dimensional design is optimal projection design via any criterion; the projection design is optimal via the aberration, orthogonality and uniformity criteria if it is optimal via any criterion of them; and the saturated orthogonal designs have the same average projection performance.     

A-optimal designs for heteroscedastic multifactor regression models

Abstract

This paper searches for A-optimal designs for Kronecker product and additive regression models when the errors are heteroscedastic. Sufficient conditions are given so that A-optimal designs for the multifactor models can be built from A-optimal designs for their sub-models with a single factor. The results of an efficiency study carried out to check the adequacy of the products of optimal designs for uni-factor marginal models when these are used to estimate different multi-factor models are also reported.     

Minimax designs for 2k factorial experiments for generalized linear models

ABSTRACT

Formulas for A- and C-optimal allocations for binary factorial experiments in the context of generalized linear models are derived. Since the optimal allocations depend on GLM weights, which often are unknown, a minimax strategy is considered. This is shown to be simple to apply to factorial experiments. Efficiency is used to evaluate the resulting design. In some cases, the minimax design equals the optimal design. For other cases no general conclusion can be drawn. An example of a two-factor logit model suggests that the minimax design performs well, and often better than a uniform allocation.     

A comparison study of effectiveness and robustness of robust economic designs of T2 chart using genetic algorithm

ABSTRACT

Recently, researchers have tried to design the T² chart economically to achieve the minimum possible quality cost; however, when T² chart is designed, it is important to consider multiple scenarios. This research presents the robust economic designs of the T² chart where there is more than one scenario. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the effect of the model parameters on the optimal designs. The genetic algorithm optimization method is employed to obtain the optimal designs. Simulation studies show that the robust economic designs of T² chart are more effective than traditional economic design in practice.     

Planning step-stress test plans under Type-I censoring for the log-location-scale case

In this paper, we consider a k-level step-stress accelerated life-testing (ALT) experiment with unequal duration steps τ=(τ₁, …, τ _k ). Censoring is allowed only at the change-stress point in the final stage. A general log-location-scale lifetime distribution with mean life which is a linear function of stress, along with a cumulative exposure model, is considered as the working model. Under this model, the determination of the optimal choice of τ for both Weibull and lognormal distributions are addressed using the variance–optimality criterion. Numerical results show that for a general log-location-scale distributions, the optimal k-step-stress ALT model with unequal duration steps reduces just to a 2-level step-stress ALT model.     

On minimax designs when there are two candidate models

This work is motivated by the need to find experimental designs which are robust under different model assumptions. We measure robustness by calculating a measure of design efficiency with respect to a design optimality criterion and say that a design is robust if it is reasonably efficient under different model scenarios. We discuss two design criteria and an algorithm which can be used to obtain robust designs. The first criterion employs a Bayesian-type approach by putting a prior or weight on each candidate model and possibly priors on the corresponding model parameters. We define the first criterion as the expected value of the design efficiency over the priors. The second design criterion we study is the minimax design which minimizes the worst value of a design criterion over all candidate models. We establish conditions when these two criteria are equivalent when there are two candidate models. We apply our findings to the area of accelerated life testing and perform sensitivity analysis of designs with respect to priors and misspecification of planning values.     

VARIANCE ESTIMATION IN NONPARAMETRIC MULTIPLE REGRESSION

ABSTRACT

We consider the variance estimation in a general nonparametric regression model with multiple covariates. We extend difference methods to the multivariate setting by introducing an algorithm that orders the design points in higher dimensions. We also consider an adaptive difference estimator which requires much less strict assumptions on the covariate design and can significantly reduce mean squared error for small sample sizes.     

Model robust extrapolation designs

We seek designs which are optimal in some sense for extrapolation when the true regression function is in a certain class of regression functions. More precisely, the class is defined to be the collection of regression functions such that its (h + 1)-th derivative is bounded. The class can be viewed as representing possible departures from an ‘ideal’ model and thus describes a model robust setting. The estimates are restricted to be linear and the designs are restricted to be with minimal number of points. The design and estimate sought is minimax for mean square error. The optimal designs for cases X = [0, ∞] and X = [-1, 1], where X is the place where observations can be taken, are discussed.     

Optimal design for classification of functional data

We study the design problem for the optimal classification of functional data. The goal is to select sampling time points so that functional data observed at these time points can be classified accurately. We propose optimal designs that are applicable to either dense or sparse functional data. Using linear discriminant analysis, we formulate our design objectives as explicit functions of the sampling points. We study the theoretical properties of the proposed design objectives and provide a practical implementation. The performance of the proposed design is evaluated through simulations and real data applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 285–307; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

The robust economic statistical design of the Hotelling's T2 chart

ABSTRACT

Economic statistical designs aim at minimizing the cost of process monitoring when a specific scenario or a set of estimated process and cost parameters is given. But, in practice the process may be affected by more than one scenario which may lead to severe cost penalties if the wrong design is used. Here, we investigate the robust economic statistical design (RESD) of the T² chart in an attempt to reduce these cost penalties when there are multiple scenarios. Our method is to employ the genetic algorithm (GA) optimization method to minimize the total expected monitoring cost across all distinct scenarios. We illustrate the effectiveness of the method using two numerical examples. Simulation studies indicate that robust economic statistical designs should be encouraged in practice.