Precise Asymptotics in Complete Moment Convergence of Parameter Estimator in the Gaussian Autoregressive Process

In this article, we study the precise asymptotic behaviors of the least-squares estimator in the Gaussian autoregressive process. Two kinds of complete moment convergence of this estimator can be obtained by the methods of deviation inequalities for this estimator and nonuniform Berry-Esseen bound for martingales.     

On the Multivariate Two-Sample Problem Using Strong Approximations of Empirical Copula Processes

In this article, we establish optimal rates for the strong approximation of empirical copula processes in ?² by sequences of Gaussian processes. These results are applied to investigate Cramér–von Mises-type statistics.     

Convergence rates of generalization errors for margin-based classification

This paper develops a general approach to quantifying the size of generalization errors for margin-based classification. A trade-off between geometric margins and training errors is exhibited along with the complexity of a binary classification problem. Consequently, this results in dealing with learning theory in a broader framework, in particular, of handling both convex and non-convex margin classifiers, among which includes, support vector machines, kernel logistic regression, and ψ$\psi$-learning. Examples for both linear and nonlinear classifications are provided.     

On the performance of the Bayesian composite likelihood estimation of max-stable processes

The max-stable process is a natural approach for modelling extrenal dependence in spatial data. However, the estimation is difficult due to the intractability of the full likelihoods. One approach that can be used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters of the max-stable process is to employ composite likelihoods in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers, possibly with adjustment of the credible intervals. In this paper, we investigate the performance of the composite likelihood-based MCMC samplers under various settings of the Gaussian extreme value process and the Brown–Resnick process. Based on our findings, some suggestions are made to facilitate the application of this estimator in real data.     

Convergence rates in the law of large numbers for END linear processes with random coefficients

Abstract

In this paper, we consider convergence rates in the Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund law of the large numbers for the END linear processes with random coefficients. We extend some results of Baum and Katz (1965 Baum, L. E., and M. Katz. 1965. Convergence rates in the law of large numbers. Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 120 (1):108–23. doi: 10.2307/1994170.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the case of dependent linear processes with the random coefficients.     

On confidence intervals for the mean past lifetime function under random censorship

The mean past lifetime (MPL) function (also known as the expected inactivity time function) is of interest in many fields such as reliability theory and survival analysis, actuarial studies and forensic science. For estimation of the MPL function some procedures have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we give a central limit theorem result for the estimator of MPL function based on a right-censored random sample from an unknown distribution. The limiting distribution is used to construct normal approximation-based confidence interval for MPL. Furthermore, we use the empirical likelihood ratio procedure to obtain confidence interval for the MPL function. These two intervals are compared with each other through simulation study in terms of coverage probability. Finally, a couple of numerical example illustrating the theory is also given.     

A Sequential Multi-Hypothesis Test for the Mean Function of a Discrete-Time Gaussian Process

Abstract

A sequential multi-hypothesis test for the mean function of a discrete-time Gaussian process with known covariance kernel is developed. It is obtained by applying the Bechhofer-Kiefer-Sobel generalized sequential probability ratio test GSPRT, and its properties are studied analytically. Selected applications to i.i.d. normal random variables, observation in a time series AR(1) model, and Wiener processes are given.     

An efficient correction to the density-based empirical likelihood ratio goodness-of-fit test for the inverse Gaussian distribution

The inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution is widely used to model positively skewed data. An important issue is to develop a powerful goodness-of-fit test for the IG distribution. We propose and examine novel test statistics for testing the IG goodness of fit based on the density-based empirical likelihood (EL) ratio concept. To construct the test statistics, we use a new approach that employs a method of the minimization of the discrimination information loss estimator to minimize Kullback–Leibler type information. The proposed tests are shown to be consistent against wide classes of alternatives. We show that the density-based EL ratio tests are more powerful than the corresponding classical goodness-of-fit tests. The practical efficiency of the tests is illustrated by using real data examples.     

Gaussian models for degradation processes-part I: Methods for the analysis of biomarker data

We present two stochastic models that describe the relationship between biomarker process values at random time points, event times, and a vector of covariates. In both models the biomarker processes are degradation processes that represent the decay of systems over time. In the first model the biomarker process is a Wiener process whose drift is a function of the covariate vector. In the second model the biomarker process is taken to be the difference between a stationary Gaussian process and a time drift whose drift parameter is a function of the covariates. For both models we present statistical methods for estimation of the regression coefficients. The first model is useful for predicting the residual time from study entry to the time a critical boundary is reached while the second model is useful for predicting the latency time from the infection until the time the presence of the infection is detected. We present our methods principally in the context of conducting inference in a population of HIV infected individuals.     

Improved estimation for the autocovariances of a Gaussian stationary process

For a Gaussian stationary process with mean μ and autocovariance function γ(·), we consider to improve the usual sample autocovariances with respect to the mean squares error (MSE) loss. For the cases μ=0 and μ≠0, we propose sort of empirical Bayes type estimators Γ? and Γ?, respectively. Then their MSE improvements upon the usual sample autocovariances are evaluated in terms of the spectral density of the process. Concrete examples for them are provided. We observe that if the process is near to a unit root process the improvement becomes quite large. Thus, consideration for estimators of this type seems important in many fields, e.g., econometrics.     

General tests of independence based on empirical processes indexed by functions

The present paper is mainly concerned with the statistical tests of the independence problem between random vectors. We develop an approach based on general empirical processes indexed by a particular class of functions. We prove two abstract approximation theorems that include some existing results as particular cases. Finally, we characterize the limiting behavior of the Möbius transformation of empirical processes indexed by functions under contiguous sequences of alternatives.     

Bootstrap misspecification tests for ARCH based on the empirical process of squared residuals

We propose and study by means of simulations and graphical tools a class of goodness-of-fit tests for ARCH models. The tests are based on the empirical distribution function of squared residuals and smooth (parametric) bootstrap. We examine empirical size and power by means of a simulation study. While the tests have overall correct size, their power strongly depends on the type of alternative and is particularly high when the assumption of Gaussian innovations is violated. As an example, the tests are applied to returns on Foreign Exchange rates.     

On the Diffusion Coefficient: The Einstein Relation and Beyond

We present a detailed derivation of the closed-form expression for the diffusion coefficient that was initially obtained by Einstein.[4] in press.  [Google Scholar] The present derivation does not make use of a fictitious force as did the original Einstein derivation, but instead concentrates directly on establishing a dynamic equilibrium between the forces of pressure and friction acting on a Brownian particle. This approach makes it easier to understand the true essence of the argument, and thus makes it simpler to apply the argument in a more general case or setting. We demonstrate this by deriving the equation of motion of a Brownian particle that is under the influence of an external force in the fluid with a non-constant temperature. This equation extends the well-known Smoluchowski approximation[24] Smoluchowski, M. von. 1915. Über Brownsche Molekularbewegung unter Einwirkung äußerer Kräfte und deren Zusammenhang mit der verallgemeinerten Diffusionsgleichung. Ann. Phys., 48: 1103–1112.  [Google Scholar] to the case of non-constant temperature, and offers new insights into the Ludwig–Soret and Enskog–Chapman effects (providing also a scholar example explaining the need for a stochastic integral). The key point in the derivation is reached by applying the Einstein dynamic equilibrium argument together with the conservation of the number of particles law. We show that this approach leads directly to the Kolmogorov forward equation whenever the setting is Markovian. The same method can also be applied in the case of interacting Brownian particles satisfying the van der Waals equation. In this setting we first demonstrate that the presence of short-range repulsive forces between Brownian particles tends to increase the diffusion coefficient, and the presence of long-range attractive forces between Brownian particles tends to decrease it. The method of derivation then leads to a nonlinear partial differential equation which in the case of weak interaction reduces to the Fokker–Planck equation. One of the main aims of the present article is to demonstrate that the Einstein argument leads to a truly dynamical theory of diffusion.     

On the Discretization of Continuous-Time Filters for Nonstationary Stock and Flow Time Series

This article discusses the discretization of continuous-time filters for application to discrete time series sampled at any fixed frequency. In this approach, the filter is first set up directly in continuous-time; since the filter is expressed over a continuous range of lags, we also refer to them as continuous-lag filters. The second step is to discretize the filter itself. This approach applies to different problems in signal extraction, including trend or business cycle analysis, and the method allows for coherent design of discrete filters for observed data sampled as a stock or a flow, for nonstationary data with stochastic trend, and for different sampling frequencies. We derive explicit formulas for the mean squared error (MSE) optimal discretization filters. We also discuss the problem of optimal interpolation for nonstationary processes – namely, how to estimate the values of a process and its components at arbitrary times in-between the sampling times. A number of illustrations of discrete filter coefficient calculations are provided, including the local level model (LLM) trend filter, the smooth trend model (STM) trend filter, and the Band Pass (BP) filter. The essential methodology can be applied to other kinds of trend extraction problems. Finally, we provide an extended demonstration of the method on CPI flow data measured at monthly and annual sampling frequencies.     

On selecting a prior for the precision parameter of Dirichlet process mixture models

In hierarchical mixture models the Dirichlet process is used to specify latent patterns of heterogeneity, particularly when the distribution of latent parameters is thought to be clustered (multimodal). The parameters of a Dirichlet process include a precision parameter α$\alpha$ and a base probability measure _G0$G_0$. In problems where α$\alpha$ is unknown and must be estimated, inferences about the level of clustering can be sensitive to the choice of prior assumed for α$\alpha$. In this paper an approach is developed for computing a prior for the precision parameter α$\alpha$ that can be used in the presence or absence of prior information about the level of clustering. This approach is illustrated in an analysis of counts of stream fishes. The results of this fully Bayesian analysis are compared with an empirical Bayes analysis of the same data and with a Bayesian analysis based on an alternative commonly used prior.     

On a bayesian approach for the shiftpoint problem

Using a direct resampling process, a Bayesian approach is developed for the analysis of the shiftpoint problem. In many problems it is straight forward to isolate the marginal posterior distribution of the shift-point parameter and the conditional distribution of some of the parameters given the shift point and the other remaining parameters. When this is possible, a direct sampling approach is easily implemented whereby standard random number generators can be used to generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of aii the parameters in the model. This technique is illustrated with examples involving one shift for Poisson processes and regression models.     

On convergence rate in the SLLN for maximums of moving-average sums of ALNQD random fields

In this article, we define a notion of asymptotically linear negatively quadrant dependence and establish the rate of complete convergence for maximums of moving-average sums of asymptotically linear negatively quadrant dependent random fields.     

On the Second‐Order Random Walk Model for Irregular Locations

Abstract. The second‐order random walk (RW2) model is commonly used for smoothing data and for modelling response functions. It is computationally efficient due to the Markov properties of the joint (intrinsic) Gaussian density. For evenly spaced locations the RW2 model is well established, whereas for irregularly spaced locations there is no well established construction in the literature. By considering the RW2 model as the solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE), a discretely observed integrated Wiener process, it is possible to derive the density preserving the Markov properties by augmenting the state‐space with the velocities. Here, we derive a computationally more efficient RW2 model for irregular locations using a Galerkin approximation to the solution of the SDE without the need of augmenting the state‐space. Numerical comparison with the exact solution demonstrates that the error in the Galerkin approximation is small and negligible in applications.