Constructing non-regular robust parameter designs

In recent years there has been considerable attention paid to robust parameter design as a strategy for variance reduction. Of particular concern is the selection of a good experimental plan in light of the two different types of factors in the experiment (control and noise) and the asymmetric manner in which effects of the same order are treated. Recent work has focussed on the selection of regular fractional factorial designs in this setting. In this article, we consider the construction and selection of optimal non-regular experiment plans for robust parameter design. Our approach defines the word-length pattern for non-regular fractional factorial designs with two different types of factors which allows for the choice of optimal design to emphasize the estimation of the effects of interest. We use this new word-length pattern to rank non-regular robust parameter designs. We show that one can easily find minimum aberration robust parameter designs from existing orthogonal arrays. The methodology is demonstrated by finding optimal assignments for control and noise factors for 12, 16 and 20-run orthogonal arrays.     

Hausman-type tests for individual and time effects in the panel regression model with incomplete data

By comparing estimators of the variance of idiosyncratic error at different robust levels, two Hausman-type test statistics are respectively constructed for the existence of individual and time effects in the panel regression model with incomplete data. The resultant test statistics have several desired properties. Firstly, they are robust to the presence of one effect when the other is tested. Secondly, they are immune to the non-normal distribution of the disturbances since the distributional conditions are not needed in the construction of the statistics. Thirdly, they have more robust performances than the main competitors in the literature when the covariates are correlated with the effects. Additionally, they are very simple and have no heavy computational burden. Joint tests for both of the two effects are also discussed. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed tests have desired finite sample properties, and a real data analysis gives further support.     

Robust estimation and design procedures for the random effects model

The authors discuss two robust estimators for estimating variance components in the random effects model, and they obtain finite‐sample breakdown points for the estimators. Based on the finite‐sample breakdown point, they propose a criterion for selecting robust designs. With robust designs, one can get efficient and reliable estimates for variance components regardless of outliers which may happen in the experiment. The authors give examples to show the performance of robust estimators and to compare robust designs with optimal designs based on the traditional analysis of variance estimation method.     

On some robust estimation procedures for quantiles based on data

This paper introduces some robust estimation procedures to estimate quantiles of a continuous random variable based on data, without any other assumptions of probability distribution. We construct a reasonable linear regression model to connect the relationship between a suitable symmetric data transformation and the approximate standard normal statistics. Statistical properties of this linear regression model and its applications are studied, including estimators of quantiles, quartile mean, quartile deviation, correlation coefficient of quantiles and standard errors of these estimators. We give some empirical examples to illustrate the statistical properties and apply our estimators to grouping data.     

Efficient estimation for time-varying coefficient longitudinal models

For estimation of time-varying coefficient longitudinal models, the widely used local least-squares (LS) or covariance-weighted local LS smoothing uses information from the local sample average. Motivated by the fact that a combination of multiple quantiles provides a more complete picture of the distribution, we investigate quantile regression-based methods to improve efficiency by optimally combining information across quantiles. Under the working independence scenario, the asymptotic variance of the proposed estimator approaches the Cramér–Rao lower bound. In the presence of dependence among within-subject measurements, we adopt a prewhitening technique to transform regression errors into independent innovations and show that the prewhitened optimally weighted quantile average estimator asymptotically achieves the Cramér–Rao bound for the independent innovations. Fully data-driven bandwidth selection and optimal weights estimation are implemented through a two-step procedure. Monte Carlo studies show that the proposed method delivers more robust and superior overall performance than that of the existing methods.     

Symmetric regression quantile and its application to robust estimation for the nonlinear regression model

Populational conditional quantiles in terms of percentage α are useful as indices for identifying outliers. We propose a class of symmetric quantiles for estimating unknown nonlinear regression conditional quantiles. In large samples, symmetric quantiles are more efficient than regression quantiles considered by Koenker and Bassett (Econometrica 46 (1978) 33) for small or large values of α, when the underlying distribution is symmetric, in the sense that they have smaller asymptotic variances. Symmetric quantiles play a useful role in identifying outliers. In estimating nonlinear regression parameters by symmetric trimmed means constructed by symmetric quantiles, we show that their asymptotic variances can be very close to (or can even attain) the Cramer–Rao lower bound under symmetric heavy-tailed error distributions, whereas the usual robust and nonrobust estimators cannot.     

A powerful test method for analyzing unreplicated factorials

In this paper, a new test method for analyzing unreplicated factorial designs is proposed. The proposed method is illustrated by some examples. An extensive simulation with the standard 16-run designs was carried out to compare the proposed method with three another existing methods. Besides the usual power criterion, another three versions of power, Power I–III, were also used to evaluate the performance of the compared methods. The simulation study shows that the proposed method has higher ability than the remaining three compared methods to identify all active effects without misidentifying any inactive effects as active.     

Adaptive interval estimation in one-way random effects models

Two-stage procedures are introduced to control the width and coverage (validity) of confidence intervals for the estimation of the mean, the between groups variance component and certain ratios of the variance components in one-way random effects models. The procedures use the pilot sample data to estimate an “optimal” group size and then proceed to determine the number of groups by a stopping rule. Such sampling plans give rise to unbalanced data, which are consequently analyzed by the harmonic mean method. Several asymptotic results concerning the proposed procedures are given along with simulation results to assess their performance in moderate sample size situations. The proposed procedures were found to effectively control the width and probability of coverage of the resulting confidence intervals in all cases and were also found to be robust in the presence of missing observations. From a practical point of view, the procedures are illustrated using a real data set and it is shown that the resulting unbalanced designs tend to require smaller sample sizes than is needed in a corresponding balanced design where the group size is arbitrarily pre-specified.     

Control variates and importance sampling for efficient bootstrap simulations

Importance sampling and control variates have been used as variance reduction techniques for estimating bootstrap tail quantiles and moments, respectively. We adapt each method to apply to both quantiles and moments, and combine the methods to obtain variance reductions by factors from 4 to 30 in simulation examples.We use two innovations in control variates—interpreting control variates as a re-weighting method, and the implementation of control variates using the saddlepoint; the combination requires only the linear saddlepoint but applies to general statistics, and produces estimates with accuracy of order n ^-1/2 B ^-1, where n is the sample size and B is the bootstrap sample size.We discuss two modifications to classical importance sampling—a weighted average estimate and a mixture design distribution. These modifications make importance sampling robust and allow moments to be estimated from the same bootstrap simulation used to estimate quantiles.     

Quantile Estimation in the Presence of Auxiliary Information under Negatively Associated Samples

In this article, we apply the empirical likelihood technique to propose a new class of quantile estimators in the presence of some auxiliary information under negatively associated samples. It is shown that the proposed quantile estimators are asymptotically normally distributed with smaller asymptotic variances than those of the usual quantile estimators. It is also shown that blocking technique is an useful tool in estimating asymptotic variance under negatively associated samples, which makes it possible to construct normal approximation based confidence intervals for quantiles.     

Critical point and power calculations for the studentized range test for generally correlated means

The studentized range test is a widely applied statistical procedure to compare several normal means within the analysis of variance. However, up to now no general methodology is available to perform the all-pair comparisons precisely, such as the computation of p-values or quantiles in the simple unbalanced one-way layout. Instead, a variety of approximations have been proposed in the past. This article focuses on exact computations of simultaneous confidence intervals and exact sample size determinations for all-pair comparisons in the analysis of variance involving arbitrary variance-covariance matrices. General power expressions in closed form are developed and numerical issues concerning the arising multivariate central and noncentral t-distributions are discussed. An application to the usual fixed effects analysis of covariance illustrates the use of the obtained results.     

Graphical technique for comparing designs for random models

Methods for comparing designs for a random (or mixed) linear model have focused primarily on criteria based on single-valued functions. In general, these functions are difficult to use, because of their complex forms, in addition to their dependence on the model's unknown variance components. In this paper, a graphical approach is presented for comparing designs for random models. The one-way model is used for illustration. The proposed approach is based on using quantiles of an estimator of a function of the variance components. The dependence of these quantiles on the true values of the variance components is depicted by plotting the so-called quantile dispersion graphs (QDGs), which provide a comprehensive picture of the quality of estimation obtained with a given design. The QDGs can therefore be used to compare several candidate designs. Two methods of estimation of variance components are considered, namely analysis of variance and maximum-likelihood estimation.     

Shrinkage estimation of varying covariate effects based on quantile regression

Varying covariate effects often manifest meaningful heterogeneity in covariate-response associations. In this paper, we adopt a quantile regression model that assumes linearity at a continuous range of quantile levels as a tool to explore such data dynamics. The consideration of potential non-constancy of covariate effects necessitates a new perspective for variable selection, which, under the assumed quantile regression model, is to retain variables that have effects on all quantiles of interest as well as those that influence only part of quantiles considered. Current work on l ₁-penalized quantile regression either does not concern varying covariate effects or may not produce consistent variable selection in the presence of covariates with partial effects, a practical scenario of interest. In this work, we propose a shrinkage approach by adopting a novel uniform adaptive LASSO penalty. The new approach enjoys easy implementation without requiring smoothing. Moreover, it can consistently identify the true model (uniformly across quantiles) and achieve the oracle estimation efficiency. We further extend the proposed shrinkage method to the case where responses are subject to random right censoring. Numerical studies confirm the theoretical results and support the utility of our proposals.     

Bayesian quantile regression for parametric nonlinear mixed effects models

We propose quantile regression (QR) in the Bayesian framework for a class of nonlinear mixed effects models with a known, parametric model form for longitudinal data. Estimation of the regression quantiles is based on a likelihood-based approach using the asymmetric Laplace density. Posterior computations are carried out via Gibbs sampling and the adaptive rejection Metropolis algorithm. To assess the performance of the Bayesian QR estimator, we compare it with the mean regression estimator using real and simulated data. Results show that the Bayesian QR estimator provides a fuller examination of the shape of the conditional distribution of the response variable. Our approach is proposed for parametric nonlinear mixed effects models, and therefore may not be generalized to models without a given model form.     

Effect on probabilities and quantiles of adding a quantity with small variance

This paper gives simple approximations for the distribution function and quantiles of the sum X + Y when X is a continuous variable and Y is an independent variable with variance small compared to that of X . The approximations are based around the distribution function or quantiles of X and require only the first two or three moments of Y to be known. Example evaluations with X having a normal, Student's t or chi-squared distribution suggest that the approximations are good in unbounded tail regions when the ratio of variances is less than 0.2.     

Robust allocation schemes for clinical trials with prognostic factors

We present schemes for the allocation of subjects to treatment groups, in the presence of prognostic factors. The allocations are robust against incorrectly specified regression responses, and against possible heteroscedasticity. Assignment probabilities which minimize the asymptotic variance are obtained. Under certain conditions these are shown to be minimax (with respect to asymptotic mean squared error) as well. We propose a method of sequentially modifying the associated assignment rule, so as to address both variance and bias in finite samples. The resulting scheme is assessed in a simulation study. We find that, relative to common competitors, the robust allocation schemes can result in significant decreases in the mean squared error when the fitted models are biased, at a minimal cost in efficiency when in fact the fitted models are correct.     

ROBUST ESTIMATION OF SMALL‐AREA MEANS AND QUANTILES

Small‐area estimation techniques have typically relied on plug‐in estimation based on models containing random area effects. More recently, regression M‐quantiles have been suggested for this purpose, thus avoiding conventional Gaussian assumptions, as well as problems associated with the specification of random effects. However, the plug‐in M‐quantile estimator for the small‐area mean can be shown to be the expected value of this mean with respect to a generally biased estimator of the small‐area cumulative distribution function of the characteristic of interest. To correct this problem, we propose a general framework for robust small‐area estimation, based on representing a small‐area estimator as a functional of a predictor of this small‐area cumulative distribution function. Key advantages of this framework are that it naturally leads to integrated estimation of small‐area means and quantiles and is not restricted to M‐quantile models. We also discuss mean squared error estimation for the resulting estimators, and demonstrate the advantages of our approach through model‐based and design‐based simulations, with the latter using economic data collected in an Australian farm survey.     

Optimal block sequences for blocked fractional factorial split-plot designs

It is known that for blocked 2^n-k$2^{n-k}$ designs a judicious sequencing of blocks may allow one to obtain early and insightful results regarding influential parameters in the experiment. Such findings may justify the early termination of the experiment thereby producing cost and time savings. This paper introduces an approach for selecting the optimal sequence of blocks for regular two-level blocked fractional factorial split-plot screening experiments. An optimality criterion is developed so as to give priority to the early estimation of low-order factorial effects. This criterion is then applied to the minimum aberration blocked fractional factorial split-plot designs tabled in McLeod and Brewster [2004. The design of blocked fractional factorial split-plot experiments. Technometrics 46, 135–146]. We provide a catalog of optimal block sequences for 16 and 32-run minimum aberration blocked fractional factorial split-plot designs run in either 4 or 8 blocks.     

Importance resampling for the smoothed bootstrap

Alternative methods of estimating properties of unknown distributions include the bootstrap and the smoothed bootstrap. In the standard bootstrap setting, Johns (1988) introduced an importance resam¬pling procedure that results in more accurate approximation to the bootstrap estimate of a distribution function or a quantile. With a suitable “exponential tilting” similar to that used by Johns, we derived a smoothed version of importance resampling in the framework of the smoothed bootstrap. Smoothed importance resampling procedures were developed for the estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean, the Studentized variance, and the correlation coefficient. Implementation of these procedures are presented via simulation results which concentrate on the problem of estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean and Studentized variance for different sample sizes and various pre-specified smoothing bandwidths for the normal data; additional simulations were conducted for the estimation of quantiles of the distribution of the Studentized mean under an optimal smoothing bandwidth when the original data were simulated from three different parent populations: lognormal, t(3) and t(10). These results suggest that in cases where it is advantageous to use the smoothed bootstrap rather than the standard bootstrap, the amount of resampling necessary might be substantially reduced by the use of importance resampling methods and the efficiency gains depend on the bandwidth used in the kernel density estimation.     

A comparative evaluation of the estimators of the three-parameter generalized pareto distribution

The parameters and quantiles of the three-parameter generalized Pareto distribution (GPD3) were estimated using six methods for Monte Carlo generated samples. The parameter estimators were the moment estimator and its two variants, probability-weighted moment estimator, maximum likelihood estimator, and entropy estimator. Parameters were investigated using a factorial experiment. The performance of these estimators was statistically compared, with the objective of identifying the most robust estimator from amongst them.