The Relationship between the Volatility of Returns and the Number of Jumps in Financial Markets

We propose a methodology to employ high frequency financial data to obtain estimates of volatility of log-prices which are not affected by microstructure noise and Lévy jumps. We introduce the “number of jumps” as a variable to explain and predict volatility and show that the number of jumps in SPY prices is an important variable to explain the daily volatility of the SPY log-returns, has more explanatory power than other variables (e.g., high and low, open and close), and has a similar explanatory power to that of the VIX. Finally, the number of jumps is very useful to forecast volatility and contains information that is not impounded in the VIX.     

On Error Rates in Normal Approximations and Simulation Schemes for Lévy Processes

Let X=(X(t) : t≥0) be a Lévy process. In simulation, one often wants to know at what size it is possible to truncate the small jumps while retaining enough accuracy. A useful tool here is the Edgeworth expansion. We provide a third order expansion together with a uniform error bound, assuming third Lévy moment is 0. We next discuss approximating X in the finite variation case. Truncating the small jumps, we show that, adding their expected value, and further, including their variability by approximating by a Brownian motion, gives successively better results in general. Finally, some numerical illustrations involving a normal inverse Gaussian Lévy process are given.     

Lévy Processes,Phase-Type Distributions,and Martingales

Lévy processes are defined as processes with stationary independent increments and have become increasingly popular as models in queueing, finance, etc.; apart from Brownian motion and compound Poisson processes, some popular examples are stable processes, variance gamma processes, CGMY Lévy processes (tempered stable processes), NIG (normal inverse Gaussian) Lévy processes, and hyperbolic Lévy processes. We consider here a dense class of Lévy processes, compound Poisson processes with phase-type jumps in both directions and an added Brownian component. Within this class, we survey how to explicitly compute a number of quantities that are traditionally studied in the area of Lévy processes, in particular two-sided exit probabilities and associated Laplace transforms, the closely related scale function, one-sided exit probabilities and associated Laplace transforms coming up in queueing problems, and similar quantities for a Lévy process with reflection in 0. The solutions are in terms of roots to polynomials, and the basic equations are derived by purely probabilistic arguments using martingale optional stopping; a particularly useful martingale is the so-called Kella-Whitt martingale. Also, the relation to fluid models with a Brownian component is discussed.     

Transient analysis of one-sided Lévy-driven queues

In this article, we analyze the transient behavior of the workload process in a Lévy-driven queue. We are interested in the value of the workload process at a random epoch; this epoch is distributed as the sum of independent exponential random variables. We consider both cases of spectrally one-sided Lévy input processes, for which we succeed in deriving explicit results. As an application, we approximate the mean and the Laplace transform of the workload process after a deterministic time.     

Non‐parametric Threshold Estimation for Models with Stochastic Diffusion Coefficient and Jumps

Abstract. We consider a stochastic process driven by diffusions and jumps. Given a discrete record of observations, we devise a technique for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. This allows us to determine a consistent non‐parametric estimator of the integrated volatility when the infinite activity jump component is Lévy. Jump size estimation and central limit results are proved in the case of finite activity jumps. Some simulations illustrate the applicability of the methodology in finite samples and its superiority on the multipower variations especially when it is not possible to use high frequency data.     

Automatic bandwidth selection for modified m-smoother ∗

Traditional parametric and nonparametric regression techniques encounter serious over smoothing problems when jump point discontinuities exist in the underlying mean function. Recently, Chu, Glad, Godtliebsen and Marron (1998) developed a method using a modified M-smoothing technique to preserve jumps and spikes while producing a smooth estimate of the mean function. The performance of Chu etal.'s (1998) method is quite sensitive to the choice of the required bandwidths g and h. Furthermore, it is not obvious how to extend certain commonly used automatic bandwidth selection procedures when jumps and spikes are present. In this paper we propose a rule of thumb method of choosing the smoothing parameters based on asymptotic optimal bandwidth formulas and robust estimates of unknown quantities. We also evaluate the proposed bandwidth selection method via a small simulation study.     

How precise is the finite sample approximation of the asymptotic distribution of realised variation measures in the presence of jumps?

This paper studies the impact of jumps on volatility estimation and inference based on various realised variation measures such as realised variance, realised multipower variation and truncated realised multipower variation. We review the asymptotic theory of those realised variation measures and present a new estimator for the asymptotic ‘variance’ of the centered realised variance in the presence of jumps. Next, we compare the finite sample performance of the various estimators by means of detailed Monte Carlo studies. Here we study the impact of the jump activity, of the jump size of the jumps in the price and of the presence of additional independent or dependent jumps in the volatility. We find that the finite sample performance of realised variance and, in particular, of log-transformed realised variance is generally good, whereas the jump-robust statistics tend to struggle in the presence of a highly active jump process.     

Wavelet threshold based on Stein's unbiased risk estimators of restricted location parameter in multivariate normal

In this paper, the problem of estimating the mean vector under non-negative constraints on location vector of the multivariate normal distribution is investigated. The value of the wavelet threshold based on Stein''s unbiased risk estimators is calculated for the shrinkage estimator in restricted parameter space. We suppose that covariance matrix is unknown and we find the dominant class of shrinkage estimators under Balance loss function. The performance evaluation of the proposed class of estimators is checked through a simulation study by using risk and average mean square error values.     

A Bayesian wavelet approach to estimation of a change-point in a nonlinear multivariate time series

ABSTRACT

We propose a semiparametric approach to estimate the existence and location of a statistical change-point to a nonlinear multivariate time series contaminated with an additive noise component. In particular, we consider a p-dimensional stochastic process of independent multivariate normal observations where the mean function varies smoothly except at a single change-point. Our approach involves conducting a Bayesian analysis on the empirical detail coefficients of the original time series after a wavelet transform. If the mean function of our time series can be expressed as a multivariate step function, we find our Bayesian-wavelet method performs comparably with classical parametric methods such as maximum likelihood estimation. The advantage of our multivariate change-point method is seen in how it applies to a much larger class of mean functions that require only general smoothness conditions.     

Locally optimal test for simultaneously testing the mean and variance of a normal distribution

A generalization of the locally most powerful unbiased (LMPU) test for the single parameter case to the k-parameter case was proposed by SenGupta and Vermeire (1986). In particular we defined a locally most mean power unbiased (LMMPU) test based on the mean curvature of the power hypersurface. Compared to the type C tests of Neyman and Pearson and the type D tests (Isaacson, 1951), LMMPU tests possess better theoretical properties and enjoy ease of construction of critical regions. In this paper we present an interesting example of a two-parameter univariate normal population for which Isaacson (1951, p. 233) was unsuccessful in finding a type D test. For the case of one observation, we prove that no Type D region exists but the LMMPU test is obtained - it is an example of a test with singular Hessian matrix for its power but is nevertheless a strictly locally unbiased (LU) test.     

Semiparametric jump-preserving estimation for single-index models

Estimation of the single-index model with a discontinuous unknown link function is considered in this paper. Existed refined minimum average variance estimation (rMAVE) method can estimate the single-index parameter and unknown link function simultaneously by minimising the average pointwise conditional variance, where the conditional variance can be estimated using the local linear fit method with centred kernel function. When there are jumps in the link function, big biases around jumps can appear. For this reason, we embed the jump-preserving technique in the rMAVE method, then propose an adaptive jump-preserving estimation procedure for the single-index model. Concretely speaking, the conditional variance is obtained by the one among local linear fits with centred, left-sided and right-sided kernel functions who has minimum weighted residual mean squares. The resulting estimators can preserve the jumps well and also give smooth estimates of the continuity parts. Asymptotic properties are established under some mild conditions. Simulations and real data analysis show the proposed method works well.     

Contrast function estimation for the drift parameter of ergodic jump diffusion process

In this paper, we consider an ergodic diffusion process with jumps whose drift coefficient depends on an unknown parameter. We suppose that the process is discretely observed. We introduce an estimator based on a contrast function, which is efficient without requiring any conditions on the rate at which the step discretization goes to zero, and where we allow the observed process to have nonsummable jumps. This extends earlier results where the condition on the step discretization was needed and where the process was supposed to have summable jumps. In general situations, our contrast function is not explicit and one has to resort to some approximation. In the case of a finite jump activity, we propose explicit approximations of the contrast function such that the efficient estimation of the drift parameter is feasible. This extends the results obtained by Kessler in the case of continuous processes.     

Analyses of the Markov modulated fluid flow with one-sided ph-type jumps using coupled queues and the completed graphs

In this paper, we analyze Markov modulated fluid flow processes with one-sided ph-type jumps using the completed graph and also through the limits of coupled queueing processes to be constructed. For the models, we derive various results on time-dependent distributions and distributions of first passage times, and present the Riccati equations that transform matrices of the first return times to 0 satisfy. The Riccati equations enable us to compute the transform matrices using Newton’s method which is known very fast and stable. Finally, we present some duality results between the model with ph-type downward jumps and the model with ph-type upward jumps. This paper contains extended results of Ahn (2009) and probabilistic interpretations given by the completed graphs.     

Tests of serial independence based on Kendall's process

The authors propose new rank statistics for testing the white noise hypothesis in a time series. These statistics are Cramér‐von Mises and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov functionals of an empirical distribution function whose mean is related to a serial version of Kendall's tau through a linear transform. The authors determine the asymptotic behaviour of the underlying serial process and the large‐sample distribution of the proposed statistics under the null hypothesis of white noise. They also present simulation results showing the power of their tests.     

On distribution function estimation with partially rank-ordered set samples: estimating mercury level in fish using length frequency data

We study the non-parametric estimation of a continuous distribution function F based on the partially rank-ordered set (PROS) sampling design. A PROS sampling design first selects a random sample from the underlying population and uses judgement ranking to rank them into partially ordered sets, without measuring the variable of interest. The final measurements are then obtained from one of the partially ordered sets. Considering an imperfect PROS sampling procedure, we first develop the empirical distribution function (EDF) estimator of F and study its theoretical properties. Then, we consider the problem of estimating F, where the underlying distribution is assumed to be symmetric. We also find a unique admissible estimator of F within the class of nondecreasing step functions with jumps at observed values and show the inadmissibility of the EDF. In addition, we introduce a smooth estimator of F and discuss its theoretical properties. Finally, we expand on various numerical illustrations of our results via several simulation studies and a real data application and show the advantages of PROS estimates over their counterparts under the simple random and ranked set sampling designs.     

Basket CDS pricing with default intensities using a regime-switching shot-noise model

In this paper, we employ an intensity-based credit risk model with regime-switching to study the valuation of basket CDS in a homogeneous portfolio. We assume that the default intensities are described by some dependent regime-switching shot-noise processes and the individual jumps of the intensity are driven by a common factor. By using the conditional Laplace transform of the regime-switching shot-noise process, we obtain the closed form results for pricing the fair spreads of the basket CDS. We present some numerical examples to illustrate the effect of the model parameters on the fair spreads.     

On some dependence structures for multidimensional Lévy driven moving averages

The Lévy copula can describe the dependence structure of a multidimensional Lévy process or a multivariate infinitely divisible random variable. Suppose the Lévy copula of a multidimensional Lévy process is known. We present the Lévy copula of the Lévy measure of the moving average driven by the multidimensional Lévy process. If there exist some special dependence structures among the components of the Lévy process, we give some dependence invariance properties after the transform of the moving average.     

The Marshall–Olkin extended generalized Lindley distribution: Properties and applications

In this article, we define and study a new three-parameter model called the Marshall–Olkin extended generalized Lindley distribution. We derive various structural properties of the proposed model including expansions for the density function, ordinary moments, moment generating function, quantile function, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, order statistics and their moments, Rényi entropy and reliability. We estimate the model parameters using the maximum likelihood technique of estimation. We assess the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators in a simulation study. Finally, by means of two real datasets, we illustrate the usefulness of the new model.     

Threshold Estimation for Stochastic Processes with Small Noise

Consider a process satisfying a stochastic differential equation with unknown drift parameter, and suppose that discrete observations are given. It is known that a simple least squares estimator (LSE) can be consistent but numerically unstable in the sense of large standard deviations under finite samples when the noise process has jumps. We propose a filter to cut large shocks from data and construct the same LSE from data selected by the filter. The proposed estimator can be asymptotically equivalent to the usual LSE, whose asymptotic distribution strongly depends on the noise process. However, in numerical study, it looked asymptotically normal in an example where filter was chosen suitably, and the noise was a Lévy process. We will try to justify this phenomenon mathematically, under certain restricted assumptions.     

James-stein estimation with constraints on the norm

Consider the problem of estimating a multivariate mean 0(pxl), p>3, based on a sample x^ ..., xn with quadratic loss function. We find an optimal decision rule within the class of James-Stein type decision rules when the underlying distribution is that of a variance mixture of normals and when the norm ||0|| is known. When the norm is restricted to a known interval, typically no optimal James-Stein type rule exists but we characterize a minimal complete class within the class of James-Stein type decision rules. We also characterize the subclass of James-Stein type decision rules that dominate the sample mean.