Bootstrap test of hypothesis for the multi-state models in survival analysis

Abstract

In the present paper we develop bootstrap tests of hypothesis, based on simulation, for the transition probability matrix arising in the context of a multi-state model. The bootstrap test statistic is based on the paper of Tattar and Vaman (2008 Tattar, P. N., Vaman, H. J. (2008). Testing transition probability matrix of a multi-state model with censored data. Lifetime Data Anal. 14(2):216–230.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which develops a statistic for the testing problems concerning the transition probability matrix of the non homogeneous Markov process.     

Modeling Electricity Price Using A Threshold Conditional Autoregressive Geometric Process Jump Model

Electricity market prices are highly volatile and often have high spikes. Both government authorities and market participants require sophisticated models and techniques for forecasting future prices and managing relevant financial risks in such a volatile market. This article extends the conditional autoregressive geometric process (CARGP) model (Chan et al., 2012 Chan, J. S.K., Lam, C. P.Y., Yu, P. L.H., Choy, S. T.B., Chen, C. W.S. (2012). A Bayesian conditional autoregressive geometric process model for range data. Computat. Statist. Data Anal. 56:30063019.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the CARGP model with thresholds and jumps, which is abbreviated as CARGP-TJ model in this article. We will demonstrate that the proposed CARGP-TJ model not only captures the unique features of the electricity price but also performs better than other existing models. For robustness consideration, a heavy-tailed error distribution is adopted. Model implementation relies on the powerful Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques via WinBUGS software. The analysis of the daily maximum electricity prices of the New South Wales, Australia reveals that the proposed CARGP-TJ model captures the price spikes well for both in-sample estimation and out-of-sample forecast.     

A quantile-based study on ageing intensity function

Jiang, Ji, and Xiao (2003 Jiang, R., P. Ji, and X. Xiao. 2003. Aging property of unimodal failure rate models. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 79(1):113–6.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) has introduced a quantitative measure known as the ageing intensity function for evaluating the ageing properties of a component/system. In recent years, there has been a great interest on the study of quantile function, an equivalent alternative to the distribution function approach. Unlike the distribution function approach, the quantile method possess some unique properties (see Gilchrist 2000 Gilchrist, W. 2000. Statistical modelling with quantile functions. Boca Raton, Florida: Chapman and Hall/CRC.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar], Nair, Sankaran, and Balakrishnan 2013 Nair N. U., P. G. Sankaran, N. Balakrishnan. 2013. Quantile-based reliability concepts. In: Quantile-Based Reliability Analysis. Statistics for Industry and Technology. New York, NY: Birkhäuser.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Motivated with this, in the present paper we introduce a quantile-based ageing intensity function and study its various ageing properties. We also study some stochastic comparison of random variables based on the proposed measure.     

Quantile-based Chernoff distance for truncated random variables

Several probability distributions such as power-Pareto distribution (see Gilchrist 2000 Gilchrist, W. 2000. Statistical modelling with quantile functions. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar] and Hankin and Lee 2006 Hankin, R. K. S., and A. Lee. 2006. A new family of non-negative distributions. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics 48:67–78.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), various forms of lambda distributions (see Ramberg and Schmeiser 1974 Ramberg, J. S., and B. W. Schmeiser. 1974. An appropriate method for generating asymmetric random variables. Communications of the ACM 17:78–82.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and Freimer et al. 1988 Freimer, M., S. Mudholkar, G. Kollia, and C. T. Lin. 1988. A study of the generalized lambda family. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 17:3547–67.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Govindarajulu distribution (see Nair, Sankaran, and Vineshkumar 2012 Nair, U. N., P. G. Sankaran, and B. Vineshkumar. 2012. The Govindarajulu distribution: some properties and applications. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 41:4391–406.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), etc., do not have manageable distribution functions, though they have tractable quantile functions. Hence, analytical study of the properties of Chernoff distance of two random variables associated with these distributions via traditional distribution function-based tool becomes difficult. To make this simple, in this paper, we introduce quantile-based Chernoff distance for (left or right) truncated random variables and study its various properties. Some useful bounds as well as characterization results are obtained.     

Inference in log-alpha-power and log-skew-normal multivariate models

ABSTRACT

Random vectors with positive components are common in many applied fields, for example, in meteorology, when daily precipitation is measured through a region Marchenko and Genton (2010 Marchenko, Y., Genton, M. (2010). Multivariate log-skew-elliptical distributions with applications to precipitation data. Environmetrics 21:318–340.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Frequently, the log-normal multivariate distribution is used for modeling this type of data. This modeling approach is not appropriate for data with high asymmetry or kurtosis. Consequently, more flexible multivariate distributions than the log-normal multivariate are required. As an alternative to this distribution, we propose the log-alpha-power multivariate and log-skew-normal multivariate models. The first model is an extension for positive data of the fractional order statistics model Durrans (1992 Durrans, S. (1992). Distributions of fractional order statistics in hydrology. Water Resour. Res. 28:1649–1655.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The second one is an extension of the log-skew-normal model studied by Mateu-Figueras and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2007 Mateu-Figueras, G., Pawlowsky-Glahn, V. (2007). The skew-normal distribution on the simplex. Commun. Stat.-Theory Methods 36:1787–1802.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We study parameter estimation for these models by means of pseudo-likelihood and maximum likelihood methods. We illustrate the proposal analyzing a real dataset.     

Note on posterior inference for the Bingham distribution

The properties of high-dimensional Bingham distributions have been studied by Kume and Walker (2014 Kume, A., and S. G. Walker. 2014. On the Bingham distribution with large dimension. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 124:345–52.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Fallaize and Kypraios (2016 Fallaize, C. J., and T. Kypraios. 2016. Exact Bayesian inference for the Bingham distribution. Statistics and Computing 26:349–60.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) propose the Bayesian inference for the Bingham distribution and they use developments in Bayesian computation for distributions with doubly intractable normalizing constants (Møller et al. 2006 Møller, J., A. N. Pettitt, R. Reeves, and K. K. Berthelsen. 2006. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method for distributions with intractable normalising constants. Biometrika 93 (2):451–458.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Murray, Ghahramani, and MacKay 2006 Murray, I., Z. Ghahramani, and D. J. C. MacKay. 2006. MCMC for doubly intractable distributions. In Proceedings of the 22nd annual conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence (UAI-06), 359–66. AUAI Press. [Google Scholar]). However, they rely heavily on two Metropolis updates that they need to tune. In this article, we propose instead a model selection with the marginal likelihood.     

Methods for Bivariate Survival Data with Mismeasured Covariates Under an Accelerated Failure Time Model

Accelerated failure time models are useful in survival data analysis, but such models have received little attention in the context of measurement error. In this paper we discuss an accelerated failure time model for bivariate survival data with covariates subject to measurement error. In particular, methods based on the marginal and joint models are considered. Consistency and efficiency of the resultant estimators are investigated. Simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the estimators as well as the impact of ignoring the measurement error of covariates. As an illustration we apply the proposed methods to analyze a data set arising from the Busselton Health Study (Knuiman et al., 1994 Knuiman , M. W. , Cullent , K. J. , Bulsara , M. K. , Welborn , T. A. , Hobbs , M. S. T. ( 1994 ). Mortality trends, 1965 to 1989, in Busselton, the site of repeated health surveys and interventions . Austral. J. Public Health 18 : 129 – 135 . [CSA] [Crossref], [PubMed] , [Google Scholar]).     

MULTI-LEVEL FACTORIAL DESIGNS WITH MINIMUM NUMBERS OF LEVEL CHANGES

The order of experimental runs in a fractional factorial experiment is essential when the cost of level changes in factors is considered. The generalized foldover scheme given by [1] Coster, D. C. and Cheng, C. S. 1988. Minimum cost trend free run orders of fractional factorial designs. The Annals of Statistics, 16: 1188–1205. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]gives an optimal order to experimental runs in an experiment with specified defining contrasts. An experiment can be specified by a design requirement such as resolution or estimation of some interactions. To meet such a requirement, we can find several sets of defining contrasts. Applying the generalized foldover scheme to these sets of defining contrasts, we obtain designs with different numbers of level changes and then the design with minimum number of level changes. The difficulty is to find all the sets of defining contrasts. An alternative approach is investigated by [2] Cheng, C. S., Martin, R. J. and Tang, B. 1998. Two-level factorial designs with extreme numbers of level changes. The Annals of Statistics, 26: 1522–1539. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]for two-level fractional factorial experiments. In this paper, we investigate experiments with all factors in slevels.     

Bayes minimax ridge regression estimators

The problem of estimating of the vector β of the linear regression model y = Aβ + ? with ? ～ N_p(0, σ²I_p) under quadratic loss function is considered when common variance σ² is unknown. We first find a class of minimax estimators for this problem which extends a class given by Maruyama and Strawderman (2005 Maruyama, Y., and W. E. Strawderman. 2005. A new class of generalized Bayes minimax ridge regression estimators. Annals of Statistics 33:1753–70.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and using these estimators, we obtain a large class of (proper and generalized) Bayes minimax estimators and show that the result of Maruyama and Strawderman (2005 Maruyama, Y., and W. E. Strawderman. 2005. A new class of generalized Bayes minimax ridge regression estimators. Annals of Statistics 33:1753–70.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is a special case of our result. We also show that under certain conditions, these generalized Bayes minimax estimators have greater numerical stability (i.e., smaller condition number) than the least-squares estimator.     

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS IN ARFIMA PROCESSES: A SIMULATION STUDY

It is known that, in the presence of short memory components, the estimation of the fractional parameter d in an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average, ARFIMA(p, d, q), process has some difficulties (see [1] Smith, J., Taylor, N. and Yadav, S. 1997. Comparing the bias and misspecification in ARFIMA models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 18(5): 507–527. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). In this paper, we continue the efforts made by Smith et al. [1] Smith, J., Taylor, N. and Yadav, S. 1997. Comparing the bias and misspecification in ARFIMA models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 18(5): 507–527. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar] and Beveridge and Oickle [2] Beveridge, S. and Oickle, C. 1993. Estimating fractionally integrated time series models. Economics Letters, 43: 137–142.  [Google Scholar] by conducting a simulation study to evaluate the convergence properties of the iterative estimation procedure suggested by Hosking [3] Hosking, J. 1981. Fractional differencing. Biometrika, 68(1): 165–176. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. In this context we consider some semiparametric approaches and a parametric method proposed by Fox-Taqqu[4] Fox, R. and Taqqu, M. S. 1986. Large-sample properties of parameter estimates for strongly dependent stationary gaussian time series. The Annals of Statistics, 14(2): 517–532. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. We also investigate the method proposed by Robinson [5] Robinson, P. M. 1995a. Log-periodogram regression of time series with long range dependence. The Annals of Statistics, 23(3): 1048–1072. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and a modification using the smoothed periodogram function.     

An efficient effective rotation pattern in successive sampling over two occasions

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the population mean on the current occasion in two occasion successive sampling. Based on all the readily available information from first and second occasions, a class of estimators is proposed with its properties. It is identified that the estimator recently suggested by Singh and Homa (Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 7: 1, 146–155, 2013) is a member of the suggested class of estimators. The correct expression of the mean squared error/variance of the Singh and Homa (2013 Singh, G.N., Homa, F. (2013). Effective rotation patterns in successive sampling over two – occasions. J. Stat. Theor. Pract. 7:146–155.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) estimator is given. The superiority of the suggested class of estimators is discussed with the sample mean estimator when there is no matching, the best combined estimator given in Cochran (1977 Cochran, W.G. (1977). Sampling Techniques. Third edition, New York: Wiley Eastern Limited. [Google Scholar], p.346) and Singh and Homa (2013 Singh, G.N., Homa, F. (2013). Effective rotation patterns in successive sampling over two – occasions. J. Stat. Theor. Pract. 7:146–155.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) estimator. Optimum replacement policy has been discussed. Numerical illustration is given in support of the present study.     

An adaptive multivariate CUSUM control chart for signaling a range of location shifts

ABSTRACT

In this work, we proposed an adaptive multivariate cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistical process control chart for signaling a range of location shifts. This method was based on the multivariate CUSUM control chart proposed by Pignatiello and Runger (1990 Pignatiello, J.J., Runger, G.C. (1990). Comparisons of multivariate CUSUM charts. J. Qual. Technol. 22(3):173–186.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), but we adopted the adaptive approach similar to that discussed by Dai et al. (2011 Dai, Y., Luo, Y., Li, Z., Wang, Z. (2011). A new adaptive CUSUM control chart for detecting the multivariate process mean. Qual. Reliab. Eng. Int. 27(7):877–884.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which was based on a different CUSUM method introduced by Crosier (1988 Crosier, R.B. (1988). Multivariate generalizations of cumulative sum quality-control schemes. Technometrics 30(3):291–303.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The reference value in this proposed procedure was changed adaptively in each run, with the current mean shift estimated by exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic. By specifying the minimal magnitude of the mean shift, our proposed control chart achieved a good overall performance for detecting a range of shifts rather than a single value. We compared our adaptive multivariate CUSUM method with that of Dai et al. (2001 Dai, Y., Luo, Y., Li, Z., Wang, Z. (2011). A new adaptive CUSUM control chart for detecting the multivariate process mean. Qual. Reliab. Eng. Int. 27(7):877–884.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the non adaptive versions of these two methods, by evaluating both the steady state and zero state average run length (ARL) values. The detection efficiency of our method showed improvements over the comparative methods when the location shift is unknown but falls within an expected range.     

Combined estimating function for random coefficient models with correlated errors

ABSTRACT

Estimating functionshave been shown to be convenient to study inference for non linear time series models. Recently, Thavaneswaran et al. (2012 Thavaneswaran, A., Liang, Y., Frank, J. (2012). Inference for random coefficient volatility models. Stat. Probab. Lett. 82(12):2086–2090.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) used combined estimating functions to study inference for random coefficient autoregressive (RCA) models with generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity errors. While most RCA modeling assumes that the random term and the error are independent, Chandra and Taniguchi (2001 Chandra, S.A., Taniguchi, M. (2001). Estimating functions for nonlinear time series models. Ann. Inst. Stat. Math 53(1):125–141.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) studied inference for RCA models with correlated errors using linear estimating functions. In this paper, we derive the quadratic estimating functions for the joint estimation of the conditional mean, variance, and correlation parameters of the RCA models with correlated errors.     

On General Continuous Triangular and Two-sided Power Distributions

In this article, we directly introduce the continuous version of the general discrete triangular distributions (Kokonendji and Zocchi, 2010 Kokonendji, C.C., Zocchi, S.S. (2010). Extensions of discrete triangular distribution and boundary bias in kernel estimation for discrete functions. Statist. Probab. Lett. 80:1655–1662.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). It is bounded and, in general, unimodal with pike. It contains thus a very useful class of two-sided power distributions (van Dorp and Kotz, 2002a Van Dorp, J.R., Kotz, S. (2002a). A novel extension of the triangular distribution and its parameter estimation. Statistician 51:1–17. [Google Scholar],b Van Dorp, J.R., Kotz, S. (2002b). The standard two-sided power distribution and its properties; with applications in financial engineering. Amer. Statistician 56:90–99.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2003 Van Dorp, J.R., Kotz, S. (2003). Generalization of two-sided power distributions and their convolution. Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 32:1703–1723.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Moments, particular cases, limit distributions, and relations between parameters are straightforwardly derived.     

Asymptotics of improved generalized moment estimators for spatial autoregressive error models

Abstract

This article considers linear models with a spatial autoregressive error structure. Extending Arnold and Wied (2010) Arnold, M., Wied, D. (2010). Improved GMM estimation of the spatial autoregressive error model. Econ. Lett. 108:65–68.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], who develop an improved generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator for the parameters of the disturbance process to reduce the bias of existing estimation approaches, we establish the asymptotic normality of a new weighted version of this improved estimator and derive the efficient weighting matrix. We also show that this efficiently weighted GMM estimator is feasible as long as the regression matrix of the underlying linear model is non stochastic and illustrate the performance of the new estimator by a Monte Carlo simulation and an application to real data.     

Nonnested Testing for Competing Autoregressive Dynamic Models Estimated by Instrumental Variables

In this work we investigate nonnested tests for two competing univariate dynamic linear models with autoregressive disturbances, where the motivation for instrumental variable estimation is mainly due to the recognized presence of current endogenous variables in the regression function, either in one or both models. As the previous transformation of both models yields regression functions which are nonlinear in the parameters, the attractive Gauss-Newton regression (GNR) approach, firstly advocated by Davidson and Mackinnon (1981 Davidson , R. , Mackinnon , J. G. ( 1981 ). Several tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses . Econometrica 49 : 781 – 93 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), will be used to obtain the results.     

Asymptotic normality of the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional time-series data

This article focuses on the conditional density of a scalar response variable given a random variable taking values in a semimetric space. The local linear estimators of the conditional density and its derivative are considered. It is assumed that the observations form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Under some regularity conditions, the joint asymptotic normality of the estimators of the conditional density and its derivative is established. The result confirms the prospect in Rachdi et al. (2014 Rachdi, M., A. Laksaci, J. Demongeot, A. Abdali, and F. Madani. 2014. Theoretical and practical aspects of the quadratic error in the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 73 :53–68.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and can be applied in time-series analysis to make predictions and build confidence intervals. The finite-sample behavior of the estimator is investigated by simulations as well.     

A Comparison of Procedures for Controlling the False Discovery Rate in the Presence of Small Variance Genes: A Simulation Study

The Significance Analysis of Microarrays (SAM; Tusher et al., 2001 Tusher , V. G. , Tibshirani , R. , Chu , G. ( 2001 ). Significance analysis of microarrys applied to the ionizing radiation response . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98 : 5116 – 5121 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) method is widely used in analyzing gene expression data while controlling the FDR by using resampling-based procedure in the microarray setting. One of the main components of the SAM procedure is the adjustment of the test statistic. The introduction of the fudge factor to the test statistic aims at deflating the large value of test statistics due to the small standard error of gene-expression. Lin et al. (2008 Lin , D. , Shkedy , Z. , Burzykowski , T. , Göhlmann , H. W. H. , De Bondt , A. , Perera , T. , Geerts , T. , Bijnens , L. ( 2008 ). Significance analysis of microarray (SAM) for comparisons of several treatments with one control . Biometric Journal, MCP 50 ( 5 ): 801 – 823 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) pointed out that the fudge factor does not effectively improve the power and the control of the FDR as compared to the SAM procedure without the fudge factor in the presence of small variance genes. Motivated by the simulation results presented in Lin et al. (2008 Lin , D. , Shkedy , Z. , Burzykowski , T. , Göhlmann , H. W. H. , De Bondt , A. , Perera , T. , Geerts , T. , Bijnens , L. ( 2008 ). Significance analysis of microarray (SAM) for comparisons of several treatments with one control . Biometric Journal, MCP 50 ( 5 ): 801 – 823 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), in this article, we extend our study to compare several methods for choosing the fudge factor in the modified t-type test statistics and use simulation studies to investigate the power and the control of the FDR of the considered methods.     

A stratified Tracy and Osahan's two-stage randomized response model

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes an alternative two-stage stratified randomized response model based on Tracy and Osahan (1999 Tracy, D.S., Osahan, S.S. (1999). An improved randomized response technique. Pak. J. Stat. 15(1):1–6. [Google Scholar]) model that has an optimal allocation and large gain in precision. It is also shown that the proposed model is more efficient than Kim and Warde (2004 Kim, J., Warde, W. (2004). A stratified Warner randomized response model. J. Stat. Plan. Infer. 120:155–165.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Kim and Elam (2005 Kim, J.M., Elam, M.E. (2005). A two-stage stratified Warner's randomized response model using optimal allocation. Metrika 61:1–7.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) stratified randomized response models under the conditions presented in both the cases of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents. Numerical illustrations and graphs are also given in support of the present study.     

Alternative Approximations to Value-At-Risk: A Comparison

This article compares three value-at-risk (VaR) approximation methods suggested in the literature: Cornish and Fisher (1937 Cornish, E.A., Fisher, R.A. (1937). Moments and cumulants in the specification of distributions. Revue de l’Institut International de Statistique 5:307–320.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Sillitto (1969 Sillitto, G.P. (1969). Derivation of approximants to the inverse distribution function of a continuous univariate population from the order statistics of a sample. Biometrika 56:641–650.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Liu (2010 Liu, W.-H. (2010). Estimation and testing of portfolio value-at-risk based on L-comoment matrices. Journal of Futures Markets 30:897–908.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Simulation results are obtained for three families of distributions: student-t, skewed-normal, and skewed-t. We recommend the Sillitto approximation as the best method to evaluate the VaR when the financial return has an unknown, skewed, and heavy-tailed distribution.