Classification of an observation into linear manifolds,their closed subsets and closed convex subsets

In this paper, we generalize the notion of classification of an observation (sample), into one of the given n populations to the case where some or all of the populations into which the new observation is to be classified may be new but related in a simple way to the given n populations. The discussion is in the frame-work of the given set of observations obeying the usual multivariate general linear hypothesis model. The set ofpopulations into which the new observation may be classified could be linear manifolds of the parameter space or their closed subsets or closed convex subsets or a combination of them or simply t subsets of the parameter space each of which has a finite number of elements. In the last case alikelihood ratio procedure can be obtained easily. Classification procedures given here are based on Mahalanobis distance. Bonferroni lower bound estimate of the probability of correctly classifying an observation is given for the case when the covariance matrix is known or is estimated from a large sample. A numerical example relating to the classification procedures suggested her is given.     

Rate-optimal tests for jumps in diffusion processes

Suppose one has a sample of high-frequency intraday discrete observations of a continuous time random process, such as foreign exchange rates and stock prices, and wants to test for the presence of jumps in the process. We show that the power of any test of this hypothesis depends on the frequency of observation. In particular, if the process is observed at intervals of length $1/n$ 1 / n and the instantaneous volatility of the process is given by $ \sigma _{t}$ σ t , we show that at best one can detect jumps of height no smaller than $\sigma _{t}\sqrt{2\log (n)/n}$ σ t 2 log ( n ) / n . We present a new test which achieves this rate for diffusion-type processes, and examine its finite-sample properties using simulations.     

Exact intervals and tests for mean of symmetrical population when one "sample" value possibly an outlier

The (continuous) data are n observations that are believed to be a random sample from a symmetrical population. Confidence intervals and significance tests for the population mean are desired. There is, however, the possibility that either the smallest observation or the largest observation is an outlier. That is, the population providing this observation differs from the symmetrical population providing the other n - 1 observations. If this occurs, intervals and tests are desired for the mean of the population providing the other n - 1 observations. Some investigation difficulties can be overcome if intervals and tests can be developed that are simultaneously usable for all of these three situations (a confidence coefficient, or significance level, has the same value for all three situations). Two kinds of intervals and tests with this property are developed. These results always involve both the next to smallest observations and should have at least moderately high efficiencies. Also, some extensions are considered, such as allowing each observation to be from a different population.     

Influential observations in the analysis of variance

The effect of influentia lob servations on t h e parameter estimates of ordinary l e a s t squares regression models has received considerable attentio n fn the last decade. However, very little attention has been given t o the problem of in fluent ia lobserva- tions in the analysis of variance . The purpose of t h i s paper is t o show by way of examples that influential observations can alter the conclusions of tests of hypotheses in the analysis of variance . Regression diagnostics for identif y in g both extreme points and outliers can be used to reveal potential data and design problems.     

Penalized Projection Estimator for Volatility Density

Abstract.  In this paper, we consider a stochastic volatility model ( Y _t , V _t ), where the volatility (V _t ) is a positive stationary Markov process. We assume that ( ln V _t ) admits a stationary density f that we want to estimate. Only the price process Y _t is observed at n discrete times with regular sampling interval Δ . We propose a non-parametric estimator for f obtained by a penalized projection method. Under mixing assumptions on ( V _t ), we derive bounds for the quadratic risk of the estimator. Assuming that Δ=Δ _n tends to 0 while the number of observations and the length of the observation time tend to infinity, we discuss the rate of convergence of the risk. Examples of models included in this framework are given.     

Infiuence functions for certain parameters in discriminant analysis when a single discriminant function is not adequate

The influence function introduced by Hampel (1968, 1973, 1974) i s a tool that can be used for outlier detection. Campbell (1978) has derived influence function for ~ahalanobis's distance between two populations which can be used for detecting outliers i n discriminant analysis. Radhakrishnan and Kshirsagar (1981) have obtained influence functions for a variety of parametric functions i n multivariate analysis. Radhakrishnan (1983) obtained influence functions for parameters corresponding to "residual" wilks's A and i t s "direction" and "collinearity" factors i n discriminant analysis when a single discriminant function is ade- quate while discriminating among several groups. In this paper influence functions for parameters that correspond to "residual" wilks's A and its "direction" and "coplanarity" factors used to test the goodness of f i t of s (s>l) assigned discriminant func- tions for discriminating among several groups are obtained. These influence functions can be used for outlier detection i n m u l t i -variate data when a single discriminant function is not adequate.     

Optimal Detection of a Change Point in a Poisson Process for Different Observation Schemes

Abstract.  Change point problems are considered where at some unobservable time the intensity of a point process ( T_n ), n ∈  N , has a jump. For a given reward functional we detect the change point optimally for different information schemes. These schemes differ in the available information. We consider three information levels, namely sequential observation of ( T_n ), ex post decision after observing the point process up to a fixed time t * and a combination of both observation schemes. In all of these cases the detection problem is viewed as an optimal stopping problem which can be solved by deriving a semimartingale representation of the gain process and applying tools from filtering theory.     

A Note on Sufficient Conditions for Valid Unmodified t Testing in Correlation Analysis with Autocorrelated and Heteroscedastic Sample Data

Traditionally, sphericity (i.e., independence and homoscedasticity for raw data) is put forward as the condition to be satisfied by the variance–covariance matrix of at least one of the two observation vectors analyzed for correlation, for the unmodified t test of significance to be valid under the Gaussian and constant population mean assumptions. In this article, the author proves that the sphericity condition is too strong and a weaker (i.e., more general) sufficient condition for valid unmodified t testing in correlation analysis is circularity (i.e., independence and homoscedasticity after linear transformation by orthonormal contrasts), to be satisfied by the variance–covariance matrix of one of the two observation vectors. Two other conditions (i.e., compound symmetry for one of the two observation vectors; absence of correlation between the components of one observation vector, combined with a particular pattern of joint heteroscedasticity in the two observation vectors) are also considered and discussed. When both observation vectors possess the same variance–covariance matrix up to a positive multiplicative constant, the circularity condition is shown to be necessary and sufficient. “Observation vectors” may designate partial realizations of temporal or spatial stochastic processes as well as profile vectors of repeated measures. From the proof, it follows that an effective sample size appropriately defined can measure the discrepancy from the more general sufficient condition for valid unmodified t testing in correlation analysis with autocorrelated and heteroscedastic sample data. The proof is complemented by a simulation study. Finally, the differences between the role of the circularity condition in the correlation analysis and its role in the repeated measures ANOVA (i.e., where it was first introduced) are scrutinized, and the link between the circular variance–covariance structure and the centering of observations with respect to the sample mean is emphasized.     

Approximating likelihoods for large spatial data sets

Summary.  Likelihood methods are often difficult to use with large, irregularly sited spatial data sets, owing to the computational burden. Even for Gaussian models, exact calculations of the likelihood for n observations require O ( n ³) operations. Since any joint density can be written as a product of conditional densities based on some ordering of the observations, one way to lessen the computations is to condition on only some of the 'past' observations when computing the conditional densities. We show how this approach can be adapted to approximate the restricted likelihood and we demonstrate how an estimating equations approach allows us to judge the efficacy of the resulting approximation. Previous work has suggested conditioning on those past observations that are closest to the observation whose conditional density we are approximating. Through theoretical, numerical and practical examples, we show that there can often be considerable benefit in conditioning on some distant observations as well.     

Parameter estimation for partially observed hypoelliptic diffusions

Summary.  Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some components of the solution at discrete times. Since exact likelihoods for the transition densities are typically not known, approximations are used that are expected to work well in the limit of small intersample times Δ t and large total observation times N  Δ t . Hypoellipticity together with partial observation leads to ill conditioning requiring a judicious combination of approximate likelihoods for the various parameters to be estimated. We combine these in a deterministic scan Gibbs sampler alternating between missing data in the unobserved solution components, and parameters. Numerical experiments illustrate asymptotic consistency of the method when applied to simulated data. The paper concludes with an application of the Gibbs sampler to molecular dynamics data.     

Characterization of generalized markov-polya and generalized polya-eggenberger distributions

A discrete model is considered where the original observation is subjected to partial destruction according to the Generalized Markov-Polya (GMP) damage model. A characterization of the Generalized Polya-Eggenberger distribution (GPED) is given in the context of the Rao-Rubin condition. More specifically, if the probability that an observation n of a non-negative integer valued r.v.X is reduced to an integer k during a damage, process is given by the GMPD, and if the resulting r.v.Y is such thatrit satisfies the RR-conditlon, then X has a GPED. Secondly, if N = A + B, where B is the missing part and A is the recorded part such that the conditional distribution P(A= x|N=n) is the GMPD, then the r.v.'s A and B are independent if, and only if, N has a GPED. Several other characterizations are also given for these two distributions. The results of Rao-Rubin ‘1964’, Patil-Ratnaparkhi (1977) and Consul (1975) follow as special cases.     

The Statistics of Simulating Chaos

When simulating a dynamical system, the computation is actually of a spatially discretized system, because finite machine arithmetic replaces continuum state space. For chaotic dynamical systems, the discretized simulations often have collapsing effects, to a fixed point or to short cycles. Statistical properties of these phenomena can be modelled with random mappings with an absorbing centre. The model gives results which are very much in line with computational experiments. The effects are discussed with special reference to the family of mappings f (x)=1-|1-2x|,x [0,1],1,<,,<,. Computer experiments show close agreement with predictions of the model.     

Outliers in Multi-Response Experiments

Cook-statistic has been developed for detecting outliers in two likely situations of occurrence of outliers in multi-response experiments. In the first situation, more than one outlying observations vector has been considered. Each of these vectors is obtained on the assumption that a particular observation from each of the responses is an outlier. A general expression of Cook-statistic for detecting any such t outlying observations vectors has been obtained. Then some particular cases have been considered. In the second case a situation is considered where observations from all the responses may not be outliers. Here also a general expression of Cook-statistic is obtained for detecting any t observations from each of any k responses as outliers. In both the cases Cook-statistic is applied to real experimental data.     

Multiple clusters on the line

Given N events occurring over time, define an n:t cluster as n consecutive events all contained within an interval of length t. In this paper we derive the expectation, variance and approximate distribution of the number of n:t clusters. The results have applications in epidemiological studies of rare diseases.     

Analysis of multivariate repeated measures data with a Kronecker product structured covariance matrix

In this article we consider a set of t repeated measurements on p variables (or characteristics) on each of the n individuals. Thus, data on each individual is a p ×t matrix. The n individuals themselves may be divided and randomly assigned to g groups. Analysis of these data using a MANOVA model, assuming that the data on an individual has a covariance matrix which is a Kronecker product of two positive definite matrices, is considered. The well-known Satterthwaite type approximation to the distribution of a quadratic form in normal variables is extended to the distribution of a multivariate quadratic form in multivariate normal variables. The multivariate tests using this approximation are developed for testing the usual hypotheses. Results are illustrated on a data set. A method for analysing unbalanced data is also discussed.     

Kernel Smoothing to Improve Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

Some studies of the bootstrap have assessed the effect of smoothing the estimated distribution that is resampled, a process usually known as the smoothed bootstrap. Generally, the smoothed distribution for resampling is a kernel estimate and is often rescaled to retain certain characteristics of the empirical distribution. Typically the effect of such smoothing has been measured in terms of the mean-squared error of bootstrap point estimates. The reports of these previous investigations have not been encouraging about the efficacy of smoothing. In this paper the effect of resampling a kernel-smoothed distribution is evaluated through expansions for the coverage of bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. It is shown that, under the smooth function model, proper bandwidth selection can accomplish a first-order correction for the one-sided percentile method. With the objective of reducing the coverage error the appropriate bandwidth for one-sided intervals converges at a rate of n ^−1/4, rather than the familiar n ^−1/5 for kernel density estimation. Applications of this same approach to bootstrap t and two-sided intervals yield optimal bandwidths of order n ^−1/2. These bandwidths depend on moments of the smooth function model and not on derivatives of the underlying density of the data. The relationship of this smoothing method to both the accelerated bias correction and the bootstrap t methods provides some insight into the connections between three quite distinct approximate confidence intervals.     

A parametric approach to theory of competing risks when the time of death from each cause follows a change-point hazard rate model

The paper a t tempts t o make i n f e r e n c e about the component parameters, based on data from a series system, when the components each follow a different changepoint hazard r a t e model.The paper extends the result of Nattbews and Farewell (1982) to the competing risk framework.     

A Test to Detect Within-family Infectivity when the Whole Epidemic Process is Observed

An epidemic model for the spread of an infectious disease in a population of families is considered. The score test of the hypothesis that there is no higher infectivity between family members is constructed under the assumption that the epidemic process is observed continuously up to some time t . The score process is a martingale as a function of t and by letting the number of families tend to infinity, a central limit theorem for the process can be proved. The central limit theorem not only justifies a normal approximation of the test statistic—it also suggests a smaller variance estimator than expected.     

Nonparametric rank-based test procedures for non-additive models in the two-way layout I. no replications

One of the major unresolved problems in the area of nonparametric statistics is the need for satisfactory rank-based test procedures for non-additive models in the two-way layout, especially when there is only one observation on each combination of the levels of the experimental factors. In this paper we consider an arbitrary non-additive model for the two-way layout with n levels of each factor. We utilize both alignment and ranking of the data together with basic properties of Latin squares to develop rank tests for interaction (non-additivity). Our technique involves first aligning within one of the main effects, ranking within the other main effects (columns and rows) and then adding the resulting ranks within “interaction bands” corresponding to orthogonal partitions of the interaction for the model, as denoted by the letters of an n × n Latin square. A Friedman-type statistic is then computed on the resulting sums. This is repeated for each of (n?1) mutually orthogonal Latin squares (thus accounting for all the interaction degrees of freedom). The resulting (n?1) Friedman-type statistics are finally combined to obtain an overall test statistic. The necessary null distribution tables for applying the proposed test for non-additivity are presented and we discuss the results of a Monte Carlo simulation study of the relative powers of this new procedure and other (parametric and nonparametric) procedures designed to detect interaction in a two-way layout with one observation per cell.     

Optimality in the presence of two factor interactions among the nuisance factors

Here we consider an m way heterogeneity settingin the presence of two factor interactions among the heterogeneity directions . The set of experimental units considered do not exhaust all possible level combinations of the heterogeneity directions ; but the set is such that all heterogeneity effects assumed i n the model are orthogonally estmable.In such a setting , calleda doubly balanced m-way setting , the C-matrix of the reduced normal equations for the treatment effects is derived . Universally optimal designs are obtained in the cases where the settingis (i) Completely regular or (ii) partly regular of a special type . An interesting observation is that there are situations where the universally optimal designsin the present setting are totally different from the designs known t o be universally optimal when there is no interaction effect among the heterogeneity directions. This indicates that the usual optimality criteria are sensitive to validity or otherwise of the usual assumptions of lack of interactions among heterogeneity directions.