EVVMA and cusum control charts in the presence of correlation

The statistical properties of control charts are usually evaluated under the assumption that the observations from the process are independent. For many processes however, observations which are closely spaced in time will be correlated. This paper considers EWMA and CUSUM control charts for the process mean when the observations are from an AR(1) process with additional random error. This simple model may be a reasonable model for many processes encountered in practice. The ARL and steady state ARL of the EWMA and CUSUM charts are evaluated numerically using an integral equation approach and a Markov chain approach. The numerical results show that correlation can have a significant effect on the properties of these charts. Tables are given to aid in the design of these charts when the observations follow the assumed model.     

A Study on EWMA charts with runs rules—the Markov chain approach

ABSTRACT

Runs rules are usually used with Shewhart-type charts to enhance the charts' sensitivities toward small and moderate shifts. Abbas et al. in 2011 took it a step further by proposing two runs rules schemes, applied to the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart and evaluated their average run length (ARL) performances using simulation. They showed that the proposed schemes are superior to the classical EWMA chart and other schemes being investigated. Besides pointing out some erroneous ARL and standard deviation of the run length (SDRL) computations in Abbas et al., this paper presents a Markov chain approach for computing the ARL, percentiles of the run length (RL) distribution and SDRL, for the two runs rules schemes of Abbas et al. Using Markov chain, we also propose two combined runs rules EWMA schemes to quicken the two schemes of Abbas et al. in responding to large shifts. The runs rules (basic and combined rules) EWMA schemes will be compared with some existing control charting methods, where the former charts are shown to prevail.     

Accurate ARL computation for EWMA-S<Superscript>2</Superscript> control charts

Originally, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart was developed for detecting changes in the process mean. The average run length (ARL) became the most popular performance measure for schemes with this objective. When monitoring the mean of independent and normally distributed observations the ARL can be determined with high precision. Nowadays, EWMA control charts are also used for monitoring the variance. Charts based on the sample variance S² are an appropriate choice. The usage of ARL evaluation techniques known from mean monitoring charts, however, is difficult. The most accurate method—solving a Fredholm integral equation with the Nyström method—fails due to an improper kernel in the case of chi-squared distributions. Here, we exploit the collocation method and the product Nyström method. These methods are compared to Markov chain based approaches. We see that collocation leads to higher accuracy than currently established methods.     

CUSUM control schemes for Gaussian processes

A CUSUM control scheme for detecting a change point in a Gaussian process is derived. An upper and a lower bound for the distribution of the run length and for its moments is given. In a Monte Carlo study the average run length (ARL) of this chart is compared with the ARL of two other CUSUM procedures which are based on approximations to the sequential probability ratio, and, moreover, with EWMA schemes for autocorrelated data. Results on the optimal choice of the reference value are presented. Furthermore it is investigated how these charts behave if the model parameters are estimated.     

A HEWMA-CUSUM control chart for the Weibull distribution

The Weibull distribution is one of the most popular distributions for lifetime modeling. However, there has not been much research on control charts for a Weibull distribution. Shewhart control is known to be inefficient to detect a small shift in the process, while exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) charts have the ability to detect small changes in the process. To enhance the performance of a control chart for a Weibull distribution, we introduce a new control chart based on hybrid EWMA and CUSUM statistic, called the HEWMA-CUSUM chart. The performance of the proposed chart is compared with the existing chart in terms of the average run length (ARL). The proposed chart is found to be more sensitive than the existing chart in ARL. A simulation study is provided for illustration purposes. A real data is also applied to the proposed chart for practical use.     

The computation of average run length and average time to signal: an overview

Control charts are widely used in industries to monitor a process for quality improvement. Evaluation of the average run length (ARL) or average time to signal (ATS) plays an important role in the design of control charts and performance comparison. In this paper, we review several basic and popular procedures, including the Markov chain and integral equation methods for computing ARL, ATS and associated run length distributions for cumulative sum charts, exponentially weighted moving average charts and combined control charts, respectively. Some important references and key formulations are provided for practitioners.     

Enhanced adaptive CUSUM charts for process mean

A statistical quality control chart is an important tool of the statistical process control, which is widely used to control and monitor a production process. The CUSUM chart is designed to detect a specific shift, provided that the shift size is known in advance. In practice, however, shift sizes are rarely known. It is then customary to use an adaptive CUSUM chart, which can effectively detect a range of shift sizes. In this paper, we enhance the sensitivities of the improved adaptive CUSUM mean charts using an auxiliary-information-based (AIB) mean estimator. The run length performances of the proposed charts are compared with those of the AIB adaptive and non-adaptive CUSUM charts in terms of the average run length (ARL), extra quadratic loss, and integral relative ARL. These run length comparisons reveal that the proposed charts are more sensitive than the existing charts when detecting different kinds of shift in the process mean. An example is given to demonstrate the implementation of existing and proposed charts.     

A Double Moving Average Control Chart

The double exponentially weighted moving average (DEWMA) technique has been investigated in recent years for detecting shifts in the process mean and has been shown to be more efficient than the corresponding exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) technique. In this article, we extend the DEWMA technique of performing exponential smoothing twice to the double moving average (DMA) technique by computing the moving average twice. Using simulation, we show that our proposed DMA chart improves upon the ARL performance of the moving average (MA) chart in detecting mean shifts of small to moderate magnitudes. It is also shown through simulation that, generally, the DMA charts with spans, w = 10 and 15 provide comparable average run length (ARL) performances to the EWMA and cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts, designed for detecting small shifts.     

Detecting mean increases in Poisson INAR(1) processes with EWMA control charts

Processes of serially dependent Poisson counts are commonly observed in real-world applications and can often be modeled by the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) model. For detecting positive shifts in the mean of a Poisson INAR(1) process, we propose the one-sided s exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, which is based on a new type of rounding operation. The s-EWMA chart allows computing average run length (ARLs) exactly and efficiently with a Markov chain approach. Using an implementation of this procedure for ARL computation, the s-EWMA chart is easily designed, which is demonstrated with a real-data example. Based on an extensive study of ARLs, the out-of-control performance of the chart is analyzed and compared with that of a c chart and a one-sided cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart. We also investigate the robustness of the chart against departures from the assumed Poisson marginal distribution.     

Some issues in the design of EWMA Charts

The traditional design procedure for selecting the parameters of EWMA charts is based on the average run length (ARL). It is shown that for some types of EWMA charts, such a procedure may lead to high probability of a false out-of-control signal. An alternative procedure based on both the ARL and the standard deviation of run length (SRL) is recommended. It is shown that, with the new procedure, the EWMA chart using its exact variance can detect moderate and large shifts of the process mean faster.     

An ARL-unbiased design of time-between-events control charts with runs rules

In this paper, we consider incorporating the runs rules into the cumulative quantity control (CQC) chart for monitoring time-between-events data. We propose a simple and effective procedure to design a CQC chart coupled with runs rules that can yield average run length (ARL)-unbiased performance and meet the required in-control ARL. The proposed design involves determining a relation between the upper side and lower side false alarm probabilities. A Markov chain approach is used to evaluate the ARL performance of various control schemes studied in this paper. An extensive numerical comparison shows that the proposed design approach can result in a significant reduction in ARL for detecting increases in the occurrence rate of the event in comparison with the basic CQC charts.     

A new adaptive EWMA control chart using auxiliary information for monitoring the process mean

The adaptive memory-type control charts, including the adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts, have gained considerable attention because of their excellent speed in providing overall good detection over a range of mean shift sizes. In this paper, we propose a new adaptive EWMA (AEWMA) chart using the auxiliary information for efficiently monitoring the infrequent changes in the process mean. The idea is to first estimate the unknown process mean shift using an auxiliary information based mean estimator, and then adaptively update the smoothing constant of the EWMA chart. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the run length profiles of the AEWMA chart are computed and explored. The AEWMA chart is compared with the existing control charts, including the classical EWMA, CUSUM, synthetic EWMA and synthetic CUSUM charts, in terms of the run length characteristics. It turns out that the AEWMA chart performs uniformly better than these control charts when detecting a range of mean shift sizes. An illustrative example is also presented to demonstrate the working and implementation of the proposed and existing control charts.     

A mixed GWMA–CUSUM control chart for monitoring the process mean

The memory-type control charts are widely used in the process and service industries for monitoring the production processes. The reason is their sensitivity to quickly react against the small process disturbances. Recently, a new cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart has been proposed that uses the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic, called the EWMA–CUSUM chart. Similarly, in order to further enhance the sensitivity of the EWMA–CUSUM chart, we propose a new CUSUM chart using the generally weighted moving average (GWMA) statistic, called the GWMA–CUSUM chart, for efficiently monitoring the process mean. The GWMA–CUSUM chart encompasses the existing CUSUM and EWMA–CUSUM charts. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the run length profiles of the GWMA–CUSUM chart. Based on comprehensive run length comparisons, it turns out that the GWMA–CUSUM chart performs substantially better than the CUSUM, EWMA, GWMA, and EWMA–CUSUM charts when detecting small shifts in the process mean. An illustrative example is also presented to explain the implementation and working of the EWMA–CUSUM and GWMA–CUSUM charts.     

Performance comparison of some likelihood ratio-based statistical surveillance methods

Using Markov chain representations, we evaluate and compare the performance of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and Shiryayev–Roberts methods in terms of the zero- and steady-state average run length and worst-case signal resistance measures. We also calculate the signal resistance values from the worst- to the best-case scenarios for both the methods. Our results support the recommendation that Shewhart limits be used with CUSUM and Shiryayev–Roberts methods, especially for low values of the size of the shift in the process mean for which the methods are designed to detect optimally.     

Conditional design of the CUSUM median chart for the process position when process parameters are unknown

In practice, different practitioners will use different Phase I samples to estimate the process parameters, which will lead to different Phase II control chart's performance. Researches refer to this variability as between-practitioners-variability of control charts. Since between-practitioners-variability is important in the design of the CUSUM median chart with estimated process parameters, the standard deviation of average run length (SDARL) will be used to study its properties. It is shown that the CUSUM median chart requires a larger amount of Phase I samples to sufficiently reduce the variation in the in-control ARL of the CUSUM median chart. Considering the limitation of the amount of the Phase I samples, a bootstrap approach is also used here to adjust the control limits of the CUSUM median chart. Comparisons are made for the CUSUM and Shewhart median charts with estimated parameters when using the adjusted- and unadjusted control limits and some conclusions are made.     

Control charts based on dependent count data with deflation or inflation of zeros

The process of serially dependent counts with deflation or inflation of zeros is commonly observed in many applications. This paper investigates the monitoring of such a process, the first-order zero-modified geometric integer-valued autoregressive process (ZMGINAR(1)). In particular, two control charts, the upper-sided and lower-sided CUSUM charts, are developed to detect the shifts in the mean process of the ZMGINAR(1). Both the average run length performance and the standard deviation of the run length performance of these two charts are investigated by using Markov chain approaches. Also, an extensive simulation is conducted to assess the effectiveness or performance of the charts, and the presented methods are applied to two sets of real data arising from a study on the drug use.     

An economic statistical design of the Poisson EWMA control charts for monitoring nonconformities

An economic statistical model of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart for the average number of nonconformities in the sample is proposed. The statistical and economic performance of proposed design are evaluated using the average run length (ARL) and the hourly expected cost, respectively. A Markov chain approach is applied to derive expressions for ARL. The cost model is established based on the general cost function given in Lorenzen and Vance [The economic design of control charts: a unified approach. Technometrics. 1986;28:3–11]. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to investigate the effects of model parameters on the solution of the economic statistical design by using the design of experiments (DOE) technique.     

A class of distribution-free control charts

Summary.  A class of Shewhart-type distribution-free control charts is considered. A key advantage of these charts is that the in-control run length distribution is the same for all continuous process distributions. Exact expressions for the run length distribution and the average run length (ARL) are derived and properties of the charts are studied via evaluations of the run length distribution probabilities and the ARL. Tables are provided for implementation for some typical ARL values and false alarm rates. The charts proposed are preferable from a robustness point of view, have attractive ARL properties and would be particularly useful in situations where one uses a classical Shewhart   X -chart. A numerical illustration is given.     

CUSUM Chart with Transformed Exponential Data

Time Between Events (TBE) charts were proposed to monitor the time between events occur based on exponential distribution, and have been shown to be more effective than monitoring the fraction non conforming directly. In this article, we consider monitoring the TBE data with CUSUM scheme by transformation. The idea behind it is to transform the TBE data to normal, and then apply the CUSUM scheme for the approximate normal data. Several simple transformation methods are examined. The calculation of Average Run Length (ARL) with Markov chain approach is described. Comparative studies on the ARL performance show that the transformed CUSUM is superior to the X-MR (Moving Range) chart with transformation, the Cumulative Quantity Control (CQC) chart, and have comparable performance with exponential CUSUM charts. The design procedures of optimal CUSUM chart are also presented. This study provides another possible alternative for monitoring TBE data with easy design procedures and relatively good performance.     

Ewma control chart under linear drift

An accurate numerical procedure is presented for computing the average run length (ARL) of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart under a linear drift in the process mean. The performance of an EWMA chart is then evaluated under a linear drift in the mean. In processes where gradual linear drifts rather than abrupt changes in the mean model the shifts in the mean more accurately, an evaluation of the performance of an EWMA chart under a linear drift is more appropriate. Tables of optimal smoothing parameters and control chart limits are given which make the design of EWMA charts easy.