Flowgraph Models for Generalized Phase Type Distributions Having Non-Exponential Waiting Times

ABSTRACT. Aalen (1995) introduced phase type distributions based on Markov processes for modelling disease progression in survival analysis. For tractability and to maintain the Markov property, these use exponential waiting times for transitions between states. This article extends the work of Aalen (1995) by generalizing these models to semi-Markov processes with non-exponential waiting times. The generalization allows more realistic modelling of the stages of a disease where the Markov property and exponential waiting times may not hold. Flowgraph models are introduced to provide a closed form for the distributions in situations involving non-exponential waiting times. Flowgraph models work where traditional methods of stochastic processes are intractable. Saddlepoint approximations are used in the analysis. Together, generalized phase type distributions, flowgraphs, and saddlepoint approximations create exciting and innovative prospects for the analysis of survival data.     

Inference for the Dependent Competing Risks Model with Masked Causes of Failure

The competing risks model is useful in settings in which individuals/units may die/fail for different reasons. The cause specific hazard rates are taken to be piecewise constant functions. A complication arises when some of the failures are masked within a group of possible causes. Traditionally, statistical inference is performed under the assumption that the failure causes act independently on each item. In this paper we propose an EM-based approach which allows for dependent competing risks and produces estimators for the sub-distribution functions. We also discuss identifiability of parameters if none of the masked items have their cause of failure clarified in a second stage analysis (e.g. autopsy). The procedures proposed are illustrated with two datasets.     

Temporal Dependence and Bias in Meta-Analysis

Decisions to undertake bio-medical studies might depend on the results of previous similar studies. So too might the timing of meta-analyses. We show how temporal dependence among the studies analyzed in the meta-analysis, as well as the timing of the meta-analysis itself, can bias the results of the meta-analysis. We show analytically and numerically that a “toy” meta-analysis is biased. We then study bias in a more realistic stochastic process model of meta-analysis. We conclude that in meta-analysis it is difficult of avoid bias that is caused by statistical dependence among studies.     

Empirical Likelihood Inference for Longitudinal Data with Missing Response Variables and Error-Prone Covariates

We consider statistical inference for longitudinal partially linear models when the response variable is sometimes missing with missingness probability depending on the covariate that is measured with error. The block empirical likelihood procedure is used to estimate the regression coefficients and residual adjusted block empirical likelihood is employed for the baseline function. This leads us to prove a nonparametric version of Wilk's theorem. Compared with methods based on normal approximations, our proposed method does not require a consistent estimators for the asymptotic variance and bias. An application to a longitudinal study is used to illustrate the procedure developed here. A simulation study is also reported.     

Inference for a series system with dependent masked data under progressive interval censoring

This paper considers the statistical analysis of masked data in a series system with Burr-XII distributed components. Based on progressively Type-I interval censored sample, the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters are obtained by using the expectation maximization algorithm, and the associated approximate confidence intervals are also derived. In addition, Gibbs sampling procedure using important sampling is applied for obtaining the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, and Monte Carlo method is employed to construct the credible intervals. Finally, a simulation study is proposed to illustrate the efficiency of the methods under different removal schemes and masking probabilities.     

Methods of Statistical Inference for Median Regression Models with Doubly Censored Data

Recently, least absolute deviations (LAD) estimator for median regression models with doubly censored data was proposed and the asymptotic normality of the estimator was established. However, it is invalid to make inference on the regression parameter vectors, because the asymptotic covariance matrices are difficult to estimate reliably since they involve conditional densities of error terms. In this article, three methods, which are based on bootstrap, random weighting, and empirical likelihood, respectively, and do not require density estimation, are proposed for making inference for the doubly censored median regression models. Simulations are also done to assess the performance of the proposed methods.     

Generalized Empirical Likelihood Inference in Generalized Linear Models for Longitudinal Data

In this article, the generalized linear model for longitudinal data is studied. A generalized empirical likelihood method is proposed by combining generalized estimating equations and quadratic inference functions based on the working correlation matrix. It is proved that the proposed generalized empirical likelihood ratios are asymptotically chi-squared under some suitable conditions, and hence it can be used to construct the confidence regions of the parameters. In addition, the maximum empirical likelihood estimates of parameters are obtained, and their asymptotic normalities are proved. Some simulations are undertaken to compare the generalized empirical likelihood and normal approximation-based method in terms of coverage accuracies and average areas/lengths of confidence regions/intervals. An example of a real data is used for illustrating our methods.     

Statistical Inference in Partially Linear Varying-Coefficient Models with Missing Responses at Random

This article considers statistical inference for partially linear varying-coefficient models when the responses are missing at random. We propose a profile least-squares estimator for the parametric component with complete-case data and show that the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal. To avoid to estimate the asymptotic covariance in establishing confidence region of the parametric component with the normal-approximation method, we define an empirical likelihood based statistic and show that its limiting distribution is chi-squared distribution. Then, the confidence regions of the parametric component with asymptotically correct coverage probabilities can be constructed by the result. To check the validity of the linear constraints on the parametric component, we construct a modified generalized likelihood ratio test statistic and demonstrate that it follows asymptotically chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis. Then, we extend the generalized likelihood ratio technique to the context of missing data. Finally, some simulations are conducted to illustrate the proposed methods.     

Statistical Inference on Partially Linear Additive Models with Missing Response Variables and Error-prone Covariates

This paper considers statistical inference for the partially linear additive models, which are useful extensions of additive models and partially linear models. We focus on the case where some covariates are measured with additive errors, and the response variable is sometimes missing. We propose a profile least-squares estimator for the parametric component and show that the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal. To construct a confidence region for the parametric component, we also propose an empirical-likelihood-based statistic, which is shown to have a chi-squared distribution asymptotically. Furthermore, a simulation study is conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed methods.     

Statistical Inference in Orthogonal Regression for Three-Part Compositional Data Using a Linear Model with Type-II Constraints

Orthogonal regression is a proper tool to analyze relations between two variables when three-part compositional data, i.e., three-part observations carrying relative information (like proportions or percentages), are under examination. When linear statistical models with type-II constraints (constraints involving other parameters besides the ones of the unknown model) are employed for estimating the parameters of the regression line, approximate variances and covariances of the estimated line coefficients can be determined. Moreover, the additional assumption of normality enables to construct confidence domains and perform hypotheses testing. The theoretical results are applied to a real-world example.     

On density and regression estimation with incomplete data

We consider the problem of estimation of a density function in the presence of incomplete data and study the Hellinger distance between our proposed estimators and the true density function. Here, the presence of incomplete data is handled by utilizing a Horvitz–Thompson-type inverse weighting approach, where the weights are the estimates of the unknown selection probabilities. We also address the problem of estimation of a regression function with incomplete data.     

Large Sample Inference for Markovian Exponential Families with Application to Branching Processes with Immigration

This paper presents limit distributions for the score and likelihood-ratio (L.R.) statistic for testing a composite hypothesis involving the mean of the offspring distribution of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching process with immigration (BPWI) when the process is subcritical, critical or supercritical. The BPWI is shown to be a member of a certain Markovian exponential family.     

Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity

The main contribution of this paper is a proof of the asymptotic validity of the application of the bootstrap to AR(∞) processes with unmodelled conditional heteroskedasticity. We first derive the asymptotic properties of the least-squares estimator of the autoregressive sieve parameters when the data are generated by a stationary linear process with martingale difference errors that are possibly subject to conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. These results are then used in establishing that a suitably constructed bootstrap estimator will have the same limit distribution as the least-squares estimator. Our results provide theoretical justification for the use of either the conventional asymptotic approximation based on robust standard errors or the bootstrap approximation of the distribution of autoregressive parameters. A simulation study suggests that the bootstrap approach tends to be more accurate in small samples.     

非参数固定效应Panel Data模型的分位数回归推断

利用分位数回归方法,讨论了非参数固定效应Panel Data模型的估计和检验问题,得到了参数估计的渐近正态性及收敛速度。同时,建立一个秩得分(rank score)统计量来检验模型的固定效应,并证明了这个统计量渐近服从标准正态分布。     

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for a bidimensional risk model with heavy-tailed claims and non-stationary arrivals

Abstract

This article studies a bidimensional risk model, in which an insurer simultaneously confronts two kinds of claims sharing a common non-stationary arrival process. Assuming that the arrival process satisfies a large deviation principle and the claim-size distributions are heavy tailed, an asymptotic formula for the corresponding ruin probability of this bidimensional risk model is obtained.     

Testing for serial correlation in linear model with validation data

In this paper, we investigate the testing for serial correlation in a linear model with validation data, then we apply the empirical likelihood method to construct the test statistic and derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under null hypothesis. Simulation results show that our method performs well both in size and power with finite same size.     

Choice of Parametric Accelerated Life and Proportional Hazards Models for Survival Data: Asymptotic Results

We discuss the impact of misspecifying fully parametric proportional hazards and accelerated life models. For the uncensored case, misspecified accelerated life models give asymptotically unbiased estimates of covariate effect, but the shape and scale parameters depend on the misspecification. The covariate, shape and scale parameters differ in the censored case. Parametric proportional hazards models do not have a sound justification for general use: estimates from misspecified models can be very biased, and misleading results for the shape of the hazard function can arise. Misspecified survival functions are more biased at the extremes than the centre. Asymptotic and first order results are compared. If a model is misspecified, the size of Wald tests will be underestimated. Use of the sandwich estimator of standard error gives tests of the correct size, but misspecification leads to a loss of power. Accelerated life models are more robust to misspecification because of their log-linear form. In preliminary data analysis, practitioners should investigate proportional hazards and accelerated life models; software is readily available for several such models.     

Inference methods for saturated models in longitudinal clinical trials with incomplete binary data

In the longitudinal studies with binary response, it is often of interest to estimate the percentage of positive responses at each time point and the percentage of having at least one positive response by each time point. When missing data exist, the conventional method based on observed percentages could result in erroneous estimates. This study demonstrates two methods of using expectation-maximization (EM) and data augmentation (DA) algorithms in the estimation of the marginal and cumulative probabilities for incomplete longitudinal binary response data. Both methods provide unbiased estimates when the missingness mechanism is missing at random (MAR) assumption. Sensitivity analyses have been performed for cases when the MAR assumption is in question.     

Testing,Estimation in GMM and CUE with Nearly-Weak Identification

In this article, we analyze Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Continuous Updating Estimator (CUE) with strong, nearly-weak, and weak identification. We show that with this mixed system, the limits of the estimators are nonstandard. In the subcase of GMM estimator with only nearly-weak instruments, the correlation between the instruments and the first order conditions decline at a slower rate than root T. We find an important difference between the nearly-weak case and the weak case. Inference with point estimates is possible with the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests in GMM estimator with only nearly-weak instruments present in the system. The limit is the standard χ² limit. This is important from an applied perspective, since tests on the weak case do depend on the true value and can only test simple null. We also show this in the more realistic case of mixed type of strong, weak, and nearly-weak instruments, Anderson and Rubin (1949 Anderson , T. W. , Rubin , H. ( 1949 ). Estimation of the parameters of a single equation in a complete system of stochastic equations . Annals of Mathematical Statistics 20 : 46 – 63 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and Kleibergen (2005 Kleibergen , F. ( 2005 ). Testing parameters in GMM without assuming that they are identified . Econometrica Forthcoming . [Google Scholar]) type of tests are asymptotically pivotal and have χ² limit.     

缺失偏态数据下联合位置与尺度模型的统计推断

为了研究缺失偏态数据下的联合位置与尺度模型,基于分布自身的特点,提出了一种适合缺失偏态数据下联合建模的插补方法———修正随机回归插补方法,该方法对缺失数据下模型偏度参数的调整十分显著。通过随机模拟和实例研究,并与回归插补和随机回归插补方法进行比较,结果表明,所提出的修正随机回归插补方法是有用和有效的。