Semiparametric Density Deconvolution

Abstract.  A new semiparametric method for density deconvolution is proposed, based on a model in which only the ratio of the unconvoluted to convoluted densities is specified parametrically. Deconvolution results from reweighting the terms in a standard kernel density estimator, where the weights are defined by the parametric density ratio. We propose that in practice, the density ratio be modelled on the log-scale as a cubic spline with a fixed number of knots. Parameter estimation is based on maximization of a type of semiparametric likelihood. The resulting asymptotic properties for our deconvolution estimator mirror the convergence rates in standard density estimation without measurement error when attention is restricted to our semiparametric class of densities. Furthermore, numerical studies indicate that for practical sample sizes our weighted kernel estimator can provide better results than the classical non-parametric kernel estimator for a range of densities outside the specified semiparametric class.     

Nonparametric density deconvolution by weighted kernel estimators

Nonparametric density estimation in the presence of measurement error is considered. The usual kernel deconvolution estimator seeks to account for the contamination in the data by employing a modified kernel. In this paper a new approach based on a weighted kernel density estimator is proposed. Theoretical motivation is provided by the existence of a weight vector that perfectly counteracts the bias in density estimation without generating an excessive increase in variance. In practice a data driven method of weight selection is required. Our strategy is to minimize the discrepancy between a standard kernel estimate from the contaminated data on the one hand, and the convolution of the weighted deconvolution estimate with the measurement error density on the other hand. We consider a direct implementation of this approach, in which the weights are optimized subject to sum and non-negativity constraints, and a regularized version in which the objective function includes a ridge-type penalty. Numerical tests suggest that the weighted kernel estimation can lead to tangible improvements in performance over the usual kernel deconvolution estimator. Furthermore, weighted kernel estimates are free from the problem of negative estimation in the tails that can occur when using modified kernels. The weighted kernel approach generalizes to the case of multivariate deconvolution density estimation in a very straightforward manner.     

Symmetric maximum kernel likelihood estimation

We introduce an estimator for the population mean based on maximizing likelihoods formed from a symmetric kernel density estimate. Due to these origins, we have dubbed the estimator the symmetric maximum kernel likelihood estimate (smkle). A speedy computational method to compute the smkle based on binning is implemented in a simulation study which shows that the smkle at an optimal bandwidth is decidedly superior in terms of efficiency to the sample mean and other measures of location for heavy-tailed symmetric distributions. An empirical rule and a computational method to estimate this optimal bandwidth are developed and used to construct bootstrap confidence intervals for the population mean. We show that the intervals have approximately nominal coverage and have significantly smaller average width than the corresponding intervals for other measures of location.     

Empirical likelihood inference for a common mean in the presence of heteroscedasticity

The authors develop empirical likelihood (EL) based methods of inference for a common mean using data from several independent but nonhomogeneous populations. For point estimation, they propose a maximum empirical likelihood (MEL) estimator and show that it is n‐consistent and asymptotically optimal. For confidence intervals, they consider two EL based methods and show that both intervals have approximately correct coverage probabilities under large samples. Finite‐sample performances of the MEL estimator and the EL based confidence intervals are evaluated through a simulation study. The results indicate that overall the MEL estimator and the weighted EL confidence interval are superior alternatives to the existing methods.     

Estimating Percentiles of Time-to-Failure Distribution Obtained from a Linear Degradation Model Using Kernel Density Method

In this article, we propose a nonparametric estimator for percentiles of the time-to-failure distribution obtained from a linear degradation model using the kernel density method. The properties of the proposed kernel estimator are investigated and compared with well-known maximum likelihood and ordinary least squares estimators via a simulation technique. The mean squared error and the length of the bootstrap confidence interval are used as the basis criteria of the comparisons. The simulation study shows that the performance of the kernel estimator is acceptable as a general estimator. When the distribution of the data is assumed to be known, the maximum likelihood and ordinary least squares estimators perform better than the kernel estimator, while the kernel estimator is superior when the assumption of our knowledge of the data distribution is violated. A comparison among different estimators is achieved using a real data set.     

Varying kernel marginal density estimator for a positive time series

This paper analyses the large sample behaviour of a varying kernel density estimator of the marginal density of a non-negative stationary and ergodic time series that is also strongly mixing. In particular we obtain an approximation for bias, mean square error and establish asymptotic normality of this density estimator. We also derive an almost sure uniform consistency rate over bounded intervals of this estimator. A finite sample simulation shows some superiority of the proposed density estimator over the one based on a symmetric kernel.     

Approximation rates of the error distribution of wavelet estimators of a density function under censorship

In this paper, a wavelet estimator and a random weighted estimator of a probability density function are constructed under right censored data. The normal approximation rates and random weighting approximation rates of the error distribution of wavelet estimators are obtained under suitable conditions. To illustrate the application of the technique, the confidence interval of f(x) is constructed by the results in this paper, and the simulation calculation is studied by the artificially generated data and “real world” data set.     

Direct density estimation of L-estimates via characteristic functions with applications

In this note we propose a new and novel kernel density estimator for directly estimating the probability and cumulative distribution function of an L-estimate from a single population based on utilizing the theory in Knight (1985) in conjunction with classic inversion theory. This idea is further developed for a kernel density estimator for the difference of L-estimates from two independent populations. The methodology is developed via a “plug-in” approach, but it is distinct from the classic bootstrap methodology in that it is analytically and computationally feasible to provide an exact estimate of the distribution function and thus eliminates the resampling related error. The asymptotic and finite sample properties of our estimators are examined. The procedure is illustrated via generating the kernel density estimate for the Tukey's trimean from a small data set.     

A weighted least-squares cross-validation bandwidth selector for kernel density estimation

Since the late 1980s, several methods have been considered in the literature to reduce the sample variability of the least-squares cross-validation bandwidth selector for kernel density estimation. In this article, a weighted version of this classical method is proposed and its asymptotic and finite-sample behavior is studied. The simulation results attest that the weighted cross-validation bandwidth performs quite well, presenting a better finite-sample performance than the standard cross-validation method for “easy-to-estimate” densities, and retaining the good finite-sample performance of the standard cross-validation method for “hard-to-estimate” ones.     

A finite population quantile estimation by unequal probability sampling

Abstract

Using a model-assisted approach, this paper studies asymptotically design-unbiased (ADU) estimation of a population “distribution function” and extends to deriving an asymptotic and approximate unbiased estimator for a population quantile from a sample chosen with varying probabilities. The respective asymptotic standard errors and confidence intervals are then worked out. Numerical findings based on an actual data support the theory with efficient results.     

Accuracy Analysis of the Percentile Method for Estimating Non Normal Manufacturing Quality

We consider asymmetric kernel estimates based on grouped data. We propose an iterated scheme for constructing such an estimator and apply an iterated smoothed bootstrap approach for bandwidth selection. We compare our approach with competing methods in estimating actuarial loss models using both simulations and data studies. The simulation results show that with this new method, the estimated density from grouped data matches the true density more closely than with competing approaches.     

CORRECTING FOR KURTOSIS IN DENSITY ESTIMATION

Using a global window width kernel estimator to estimate an approximately symmetric probability density with high kurtosis usually leads to poor estimation because good estimation of the peak of the distribution leads to unsatisfactory estimation of the tails and vice versa. The technique proposed corrects for kurtosis via a transformation of the data before using a global window width kernel estimator. The transformation depends on a “generalised smoothing parameter” consisting of two real-valued parameters and a window width parameter which can be selected either by a simple graphical method or, for a completely data-driven implementation, by minimising an estimate of mean integrated squared error. Examples of real and simulated data demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, which appears suitable for a wide range of symmetric, unimodal densities. Its performance is similar to ordinary kernel estimation in situations where the latter is effective, e.g. Gaussian densities. For densities like the Cauchy where ordinary kernel estimation is not satisfactory, our methodology offers a substantial improvement.     

The stochastic approximation method for the estimation of a multivariate probability density

We apply the stochastic approximation method to construct a large class of recursive kernel estimators of a probability density, including the one introduced by Hall and Patil [1994. On the efficiency of on-line density estimators. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 40, 1504–1512]. We study the properties of these estimators and compare them with Rosenblatt's nonrecursive estimator. It turns out that, for pointwise estimation, it is preferable to use the nonrecursive Rosenblatt's kernel estimator rather than any recursive estimator. A contrario, for estimation by confidence intervals, it is better to use a recursive estimator rather than Rosenblatt's estimator.     

Evidence of Convergence Clubs Using Mixture Models

Cross-country economic convergence has been increasingly investigated by finite mixture models. Multiple components in a mixture reflect groups of countries that converge locally. Testing for the number of components is crucial for detecting “convergence clubs.” To assess the number of components of the mixture, we propose a sequential procedure that compares the shape of the hypothesized mixture distribution with the true unknown density, consistently estimated through a kernel estimator. The novelty of our approach is its capability to select the number of components along with a satisfactory fitting of the model. Simulation studies and an empirical application to per capita income distribution across countries testify for the good performance of our approach. A three-clubs convergence seems to emerge.     

Wavelet-Based Density Estimation in a Heteroscedastic Convolution Model

We consider a heteroscedastic convolution density model under the “ordinary smooth assumption.” We introduce a new adaptive wavelet estimator based on term-by-term hard thresholding rule. Its asymptotic properties are explored via the minimax approach under the mean integrated squared error over Besov balls. We prove that our estimator attains near optimal rates of convergence (lower bounds are determined). Simulation results are reported to support our theoretical findings.     

Inferences from Cross-Sectional,Stochastic Frontier Models

Conventional approaches for inference about efficiency in parametric stochastic frontier (PSF) models are based on percentiles of the estimated distribution of the one-sided error term, conditional on the composite error. When used as prediction intervals, coverage is poor when the signal-to-noise ratio is low, but improves slowly as sample size increases. We show that prediction intervals estimated by bagging yield much better coverages than the conventional approach, even with low signal-to-noise ratios. We also present a bootstrap method that gives confidence interval estimates for (conditional) expectations of efficiency, and which have good coverage properties that improve with sample size. In addition, researchers who estimate PSF models typically reject models, samples, or both when residuals have skewness in the “wrong” direction, i.e., in a direction that would seem to indicate absence of inefficiency. We show that correctly specified models can generate samples with “wrongly” skewed residuals, even when the variance of the inefficiency process is nonzero. Both our bagging and bootstrap methods provide useful information about inefficiency and model parameters irrespective of whether residuals have skewness in the desired direction.     

Statistical inference for multiple change-point models

In this article, we propose a new technique for constructing confidence intervals for the mean of a noisy sequence with multiple change-points. We use the weighted bootstrap to generalize the bootstrap aggregating or bagging estimator. A standard deviation formula for the bagging estimator is introduced, based on which smoothed confidence intervals are constructed. To further improve the performance of the smoothed interval for weak signals, we suggest a strategy of adaptively choosing between the percentile intervals and the smoothed intervals. A new intensity plot is proposed to visualize the pattern of the change-points. We also propose a new change-point estimator based on the intensity plot, which has superior performance in comparison with the state-of-the-art segmentation methods. The finite sample performance of the confidence intervals and the change-point estimator are evaluated through Monte Carlo studies and illustrated with a real data example.     

A bias-reduced estimator for the mean of a heavy-tailed distribution with an infinite second moment

We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator for the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked in a simulation study, by four of the most popular goodness-of-fit tests. The accuracy of the resulting confidence intervals is evaluated as well. We also investigate the finite sample behavior and compare our estimator with some versions of Peng's estimator of the mean (namely those based on Hill, t-Hill and Huisman et al. extreme value index estimators). Moreover, we discuss the robustness of the tail index estimators used in this paper. Finally, our estimation procedure is applied to the well-known Danish fire insurance claims data set, to provide confidence bounds for the means of weekly and monthly maximum losses over a period of 10 years.     

Kernel density estimation under negative superadditive dependence and its application for real data

In this paper, the kernel density estimator for negatively superadditive dependent random variables is studied. The exponential inequalities and the exponential rate for the kernel estimator of density function with a uniform version, over compact sets are investigated. Also, the optimal bandwidth rate of the estimator is obtained using mean integrated squared error. The results are generalized and used to improve the ones obtained for the case of associated sequences. As an application, FGM sequences that fulfil our assumptions are investigated. Also, the convergence rate of the kernel density estimator is illustrated via a simulation study. Moreover, a real data analysis is presented.     

Nonparametric kernel density estimation for general grouped data

Interval-grouped data are defined, in general, when the event of interest cannot be directly observed and it is only known to have been occurred within an interval. In this framework, a nonparametric kernel density estimator is proposed and studied. The approach is based on the classical Parzen–Rosenblatt estimator and on the generalisation of the binned kernel density estimator. The asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator are derived under usual assumptions, and the effect of using non-equally spaced grouped data is analysed. Additionally, a plug-in bandwidth selector is proposed. Through a comprehensive simulation study, the behaviour of both the estimator and the plug-in bandwidth selector considering different scenarios of data grouping is shown. An application to real data confirms the simulation results, revealing the good performance of the estimator whenever data are not heavily grouped.